FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 445 April 06 2014 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“It’s better to be out of a market wishing you were in that in a market wishing you were out”
Saturday April 05, 2014 4:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time.
In today’s newsletter analysis for some grains and softs will roll to July contracts, during the week we will continue to provide trades and ideas for contracts beyond the front month for many markets. Traders should stay nimble and tune in for BW flashes and updates. The Day trades for all markets may last more than 1 to 2 days as many markets have become more volatile and have larger ranges. Preferably day trades are exited within minutes, however ‘day trade program’ trades may last 24 to 72 hours. U.S unemployment data on Friday came in pretty much as expected. Stock market action was strong early on and sold off pretty much the rest of the day. While major US stock averages remain mixed on the year and the long term technicals remain bullish, traders should look for wide ranges and trading opportunities for both sides as we move into the Easter holiday. Since the stock market on Friday was unable hold gains on fairly decent news, traders should be looking for bad news to cause some short covering. Bond Futures are a sale on a rally. In Forex markets last week, the dollar rose a bit after the ECB announcement. During the subsequent press conference ECB head Draghi acknowledged the threat of deflation, however Mr. Draghi has so far has declined to do anything about it and his name is on the Euro when it comes off the presses.. Nothing has changed. The Euro is still stuck in a trading range between 13460 the downside and 13830 on top.
Ditto for the dollar index, the dollar is friendly on a sustained close over 8045. The Dollar index is essentially unchanged on the year and a bit higher on the month and if the wind blows the other way it will be unchanged to lower. A sustained decline under 13770 in the euro is negative for a test of 13460 to 13340. Maintaining a posture over 13830 indicates an eventual test of 14150 which should prompt the ‘powers that be’ in the Eurozone to really worry about deflationary effects from the higher euro. Bottom line, the ECB members continue to prefer to talk the Euro down rather than do anything about it. Dollar-Yen needs to hold over 10320 to maintain its upward bias. Failure to do so is negative. However the downside may be limited due to chatter from the BOJ. A mid-month dip is likely. Look for a trading range in Dollar-Yen… Stay tuned for Forex Flashes.
All talk is becoming cheaper these days, especially when those talking have nothing to say.
Cable is range bound and remains in a tight range. The British pound is marginally lower on the year and remains long term friendly and can firm into the end of April. Traders should continue to use the current stop on the cable position for now. The Long term work on the Aussie and Canadian dollar remain bearish. However the near term work is turning friendly and we have placed forex buys below the market in the Australian Dollar. Look for a trading range. Canadian Dollar Futures are indicating tests of marginally higher prices. In USD/CAD terms a sustained decline under 10960 is negative for a test of 10820. So far a sustained decline has not occurred. Perhaps it will over the next few months.
Generally speaking the Forex markets are maintaining tight ranges in a broader sense and should be considered trading affairs. Ditto for the metals, the long term charts for silver and gold remain bearish. However Silver seems to be rather balanced at current prices and gold has bounced from nearby support. Unfortunately how ‘high’ these ‘post bubble’ markets can move is unknown. Last time this type of move occurred over a many years gold and silver essentially went flat for more than a decade. Look for more trading ranges. Copper continues act lousy, speculators continue to maintain a record short position in copper and a good bounce is likely underway.
Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets in areas emerging economies such as China, Brazil and India are all available upon request. I will comment from time to time on those regions and markets around the globe in this publication, for more detailed information please call or email a request.
Energies had a wide range over the last two weeks and we expect that to continue. There is no change to our posture. Corn acts better, look for weather premium to build in the December Corn. Soybeans rallied after the Crop Report last week, May Soybeans made new contract highs and then back off. Soybeans don’t make typical final highs until sometime in June and July. On Wednesday the USDA April supply demand report will be released. US commodities such as corn and soybeans have not even been planted yet and weather will now become a factor. Look for trading ranges. Just to use some data as an example; buying July soymeal before the report and exiting and exiting into the first week or second week of June has made money 14 out of the last 15 years. The trade can be wild, with extremely wide ranges. However that’s what it does. Also Selling July corn after the report tends to make money over the two weeks subsequent to the report. For livestock markets it’s a day to day trading affair. Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes.
At the end of next week some Chinese trade data is due and should provide an indication of China’s overall economic strength. China has been and will remain for a long time strong source of demand for many commodities. After that data is released at the end of the week many investors and traders will have a better idea of Chinese commodity demand.
In the Softs; Sugar seasonally has a habit to slack off a bit now and it has and is likely to drift a bit lower and test lower levels. The Fundamental outlook is slightly improving and a broader trading range is likely. Cocoa remains long term bullish… Cotton remains long term friendly. Cotton is lower on the month. Many traders are looking for cotton to slip a bit. Our targets are higher. That’s what makes a market. Coffee bounced Friday as shorts covered and now coffee has corrected some overbought conditions after its seasonal ‘Sell the Ides of March’. Coffee typically can show strength into late April as the shorts exit, May and June can be stronger during bull phases if weather premium builds. Due to the high margins look for day trades only in coffee. Onto the nitty-gritty…
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near 16,150.00 to 16,090.00. Below that buyers should appear near 15,760.00 to 15,690.00 and contain declines. Resistance is at 16,420.00 to 16,550.00, an extended trade over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 16,890.00 to 16,960.00 region.
JUNE E-MINI SP500
Nearby Resistance is at 1865.00 a close over is friendly and augurs for another test of the 1902.00 to 1909.00 region. Beyond that a test of 1946.00 to 1953.00 is likely. Support should appear near 1840.00 and the 1822.00 to 1808.00 region. NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should now appear at 4163.00 to 4183.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4238.00 to 4249.00 and cap a rally for now.
Support should appear near 4120.00 to 4110.00. Below that buyers should appear near the 4056.00 to 4046.00 region and contain a decline.
JUNE E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3503.00 to 3493.00 and the 3443.00 to 3425.00 region. Resistance is at 3553.00 to 3563.00 and 3613.00 to 3623.00.
JUNE E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Nearby Resistance should appear at 1164.00 to 1169.00. Beyond that a test of 1180.50 is likely. Support should appear near 1136.00 to 1130.00 and the 1101.00 to 1096.00 region.
JUNE 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 133-07 and 133-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 134-07 and cap a rally. Support should appear near 132-21 and 132-07. Below that buyers should appear near 131-21.
JUNE 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 124-07 and 124-21. Above that resistance is at 125-07 and 125-21 where sellers should appear and cap rallies.
Support should appear near 123-07 and 122-21, below that a test of 122-07 and 121-21 is likely.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8119 to 8134 and 8194 to 8223.
Support should appear near the 8044 to 8029 region. Under that buyers should appear near 7992. JUNE JAPANESE YEN Resistance should appear near 9706 to 9737, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 9821 to 9837. Support should appear near 9641 to 9625, below that buyers should appear near 9542 to 9525.
JUNE EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near the 13460 to 13340. Resistance should appear near 13770 to 13830. JUNE SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360 and 11640 to 11690
Support is near 11155 and the 11010 to 10960 region. JUNE BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near the 16550 to 16420 region. Below that buyers should appear near 16287 and contain a decline.
Resistance remains near 16720 and the 16890 to 16960 region.
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9100 and 9140 to 9156 Support should appear near 9060 to 9044 and 8964 to 8934
JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 9156 to 9140 and 9060 to 9044. Resistance should appear near 9316 to 9347. Beyond that a test of 9429 to 9445 is likely.
Stay tuned for Forex Flashes.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
JUNE GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1304.0 to 1310.0 and the 1334.0 to 1346.0 region.
Support should appear near 1289.00 and the 1274.0 to 1268.0 region.
MAY COPPER Resistance should appear near 30360 to 30450 and 30920 to 31020.
Support should appear near 29900 and 29720 and the 29370 to 29280.
MAY SILVER
Support should appear near 1953 to 1946. Below that a test of 1909.0 to 1902.0 is likely.
Resistance is at 2034 to 2042 and the 2080 to 2089 region.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
MAY CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 10188. Beyond that a test of the 10320 to 10360 region is likely.
Support should appear near 10079 and the 10037 to 10037 to 10021 region. JUNE CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 10104 to 10137. A close over is friendly…
Support should appear near 10037 to 10021 and 9937 to 9921.
JUNE BRENT CRUDE OIL Resistanceshould appear near 10820, an extended trade over is friendly and augurs for a test of 10960 to 11010. Supportshould appear near 10630 to 10580 and 10470… Below that 10360 to 10320 should hold.
MAY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 28830 to 28740 and the 28290 to 28200 region. Resistance should appear 29280 to 29370 and the 29720 to 29900 region.
MAY UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear 28830 to 28740 and 28290 to 28200 which should contain declines.
Resistance should appear near 29370. An extended trade and close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 29720 to 29900 region
Traders should go long if a close over 29410 occurs.
MAY NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 4503 to 4514, beyond that a test of 463.9 to 465.0 is likely and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 438.1 to 437.0 and 431.5 to 430.4 where buyers should appear and contain decline.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MAY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1471 ½ and the 1459 to 1453 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1437 and the 1421 to 1415 region, which should hold and contain declines.
Resistance should appear near 1484 to 1496, beyond that a test of 1529 to 1536 is likely and should cap a rally.
JULY SOYBEANS Support should appear near 1453 and 1437… Under that buyers should appear near 1421 to 1415
and should contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 1471 ½ and 1484 to 1496.
NOVEMBER SOYBEANS Support should appear near 1203 to 1192 and 1169 to 1164.
Resistance should appear near 1232 to 1238 and the 1268 to 1274 region and cap a rally.
JULY SOYOIL Resistance should appear near the 4238 to 4249 region. Beyond that a test of 4304 to 4315 is likely. Above that sellers should appear near 4370 to 4381 and cap a rally. Support should appear near 4120 to 4110 and 4056 to 4046. Below that buyers should appear near 3992 to 3909. JULY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 469.5 to 471.7, beyond that a test of 477.5 to 478.5 and the 484.5 to 485.6 region is likely.
Support should appear near 465.0 to 463.9 and the 458.1 to 457.1 region. Below that buyers should appear near 451.4 to 450.3 which should hold.
Trade Accordingly
JULY CORN
Support should appear near 506 ½ to 505 ¾ and the 499 ½ to 497 ¼ region. Below that buyers should appear near 492 ¾ to 491 ½ region. Under that buyers should appear near 485 ¾ to 484 ½ and contain declines. Resistance should appear near 512 ¾ to 513 ¾ and the 520 to 521 ¼ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 541 ¾ to 544 region
JULY WHEAT
Resistance should appear near the 680 ¾ to 683 ¾ and the 707 to 708 ¾ region, where sellers should appear near and cap rallies.
Support should appear the 675 ½ to 674 ¾ region. Below that buyers should appear near 667 ¼ to 665 ¾ and the 635 to 633 ¾ region.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear near 13460 to 13340 and 13220.. Below that a test of 13100 to 13040 is likely and where buyers should step in and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 13617, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 13770 to 13830.
AUGUST CATTLE Support should appear near 13100 to 13040 and should contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 13340 to 13460, beyond that a test of 13770 to 13830 is likely.
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 12030 to 11960 and the 11690 to 11640 region which is likely to contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 12320 to 12380, beyond that a test of 12680 to 12740 is likely.
Stay tuned for Livestock flashes.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
JULY COFFEE
Resistance should appear near the 19020 to 19020. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 19460 to 19530 and the 20340 to 20420 region.
Support should appear near 18650 to 18580 and 18220 to 18080. Below that buyers should appear near 17800 to 17740 and contain a decline.
JULY COCOA
Resistance should appear near 3036 to 3045, beyond that a test of 3092 to 3102 is likely.
Support should appear near 2937 to 2928 and the 2883 to 2874 region. Where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
Traders should go long if a close over 3047 occurs
JULY SUGAR
Resistance is near 1808 to 1822 and 1858 to 1865 and should cap rallies for now. Support should appear near 1774 a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1738 to 1731. Below that buyers should appear near the 1696 to 1689 region.
JULY COTTON
Support should appear near 9156 to 9140 and the 9060 to 9044 region. Resistance is at 9347, an extended trade over is friendly and augurs for a test of 9429 to 9445 and the 9706 to 9737 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 9348 occurs.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday April 06, 2014 12:00 Noon South Florida Beach Time Terms of Use and Agreement https://www.futurescom.com/policies.html
THIS PUBLICATION IS SUBJECT TO REVISIONS AND CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OPTIONS. TRADING FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE TRADE WITH CAPITAL YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO SOLICITATION IS MADE HERE FOR INDIVIDUALS TO BUY OR SELL FUTURES CONTRACTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR OPTION MARKET. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. READERS ARE SOLEY RESPONSIBLE FOR HOW THEY USE THE INFORMATION AND FOR THEIR RESULTS. YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS, THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. INTERNET RISKS ; THERE ARE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH UTILIZING AN INTERNET BASED SERVICE INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FAILURE OF HARDWARE, SOFTWARE AND INTERNET CONNECTION, FUTURESCOM EMPLOYS BACK-UP SYSTEMS AND CONTINGENCY PLANS TO MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM FAILURE
