FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 462 Saturday November 29, 2014. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
Friday November 28, 2014
2:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time
Traders should stay nimble and stay tuned for a plethora of flashes in all markets. During the normal seasonal holiday period investors and traders should continue to hear babble government leaders, and finance representatives. U.S Stock Indices are higher on the year. Interest rates are at or near zero and the Central Bank of China lowered its interest rates. Traders should prepare for volatility and continue to trade the markets. Forex Markets; the euro remains lower on the year. The Euro’s typical strength into the end of the year is muted and waning, longer term downside targets are well below current levels. Cable is lower on the year, downside support is 15350 to 15290 and the trading range has expanded. Resistance is above the market at 16090 to 16150. The USD/CAD is mixed and higher on the year, longer term targets are higher. CAD/USD has become a trading affair and is sensitive to the decline in oil prices. Dollar-Yen is trading higher on the year. On the downside support is at 116.90 to 116.40 and 115.00, the targets on top are 11920 to 12030.
Do not rule out higher tests USD/JPY down the road. Dollar Yen typically rises into the end of the year, however traders should consider Yen a trading affair. Dollar/Yen continues to work on long term resistance going back forty years. Considering Japanese long term trend GDP growth is a mere one–half of one percent, dollar yen could easily end up in the 160’s a decade from now. Japan’s leaders can fix the problems, but it will take lots of work. Some of which the regions other nations may not like.. The Aussie and Kiwi longer term downside targets are lower. The Aussie reached a 4 year low this past week and bounced. Both the Kiwi and Aussie dollar are down on the year. While Aussie typically shows strength in the later part of November, last year the Aussie collapsed into December and now is a trading affair.
Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request. For more detailed information or a country by county economic analysis for trading or hedging programs please call or email a request.
Precious Metals and Energy; Gold and Silver remain weak longer term, Gold has bounced from a good low at the 1136 to 1130 region and is range bound now and is unchanged on the year. Gold is a trading affair, typically firm’s into the end of the year and is acting badly now. Copper remains weak
and is breaking down below the lows of the past several years. Traders should probably begin to prepare for lower prices, well down into the 250’s if nothing changes. WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and the products are accelerating downwards. Energies bounced a bit after the rate cut from China and subsequently have collapsed. Heating Oil and Unleaded Gas have years of price on top of the market and weak. Natural Gas shows some support. Nat Gas got some help from weather and then backed off. Grains are trading affairs now. We want to sell a rally in Beans and look at bear spreads buying the back and selling the front in preparation for weakness into February. Livestock markets are a day to day trading affair. Typically Hogs act soft as the month ends and into early December. Seasonally cattle can dip into December. Live cattle futures and cash cattle reached the 173 level we mentioned in this newsletter months ago. Live Cattle is now pricey. Coffee typically firms in December but remains pricey. Sugar and Cocoa are trading affairs, sugar acts badly. Cotton continues to act badly but has bounced, cotton is lower on the year, Cotton did bounce of the 5800 region. Look for some support in cotton near 5800 to 5500, perhaps lower and a trading range for now.
Stay tuned for flashes and updates in all markets On to the Nitty Gritty…
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support is near 17,380.00 to 17,310.00 and 17,125.00
Resistance is at the 18,080.00 to 18,220.00 region.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 9044.00 to 9060.00 and 8964.00 to 8934.00
Resistance is at 9316.00 to 9347.00 and the 9429.00 to 9429.00 region.
DECEMBER E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 2080.00 to 2089.00 and 2126.00 to 2134.00
Support should appear near 2042.00 to 2034.00 then 1996.00 to 1982.00 and 1953.00 to 1946.00. Below that buyers should appear near 1929.00 to 1909.00. Traders can buy at for a bounce 1953.00 and plan on a risk of risk 10.00 points.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 4845.00 to 4856.00 and the 4915.00 to 4926.00 region.
Support should appear near 4717.00 to 4695.00 and 4650.00 to 4639.00
DECEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4249.00 to 4238.00 and 4056.00 to 4046.00.
Resistance is at 4370.00 to 4381.00 and the 4425.00 to 4446.00 region.
DECEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1180.50 and the 1192.00 to 1203.00 region
Support should appear near 1164.00, a close under augurs for a test of 1136.00 to 1130.00 and the 1101.00 to 1096.00 region.
MARCH 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 143-22 then 144-07 and 144-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 145-07 and cap a rally
Support should appear near 141-07 and 140-21. Below that 139-21 should hold.
MARCH 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 127-07 then 127-21 and 128-08
Support should appear near 125-22 then 125-07 and 124-22
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8871 then 8934 to 8964 and 9044 to 9060.
Support should appear near 8777 to 8762 and the 8683 to 8668 region.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 8560 to 8589 and the 8762 to 8777 region. Traders can sell at 8757 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 8406 to 8391, below that a test of 8314 to 8300 is likely, under that a trade towards 8044 to 8029 is likely to occur.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near the 12380 to 12320 , below that a test of 12030 to 11920 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 12530 and the 12680 to 12740 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10580 to 10630 and 10680.
Support should appear near 10320, an extended close under is negative and augurs for at test of 10037 to 10021.
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 15350 to 15290 and 14960 to 14840
Resistance should appear near 15690 to15760 then 15922 and 16090 to 16150.
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 8756 to 8777 and the 8856 to 8871region. Traders can sell at 8817 and hold for lower prices. Risk a close over 8877 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near the 8683 to 8668 and the 8589 to 8560 region.
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 8406 to 8791 and 8314 to 8300 region.
Resistance should appear near 8560 to 8589 and 8668 to 8683. Traders can sell at 8667 and risk a close over 8690 for three days in a row.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
FEBRUARY GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1192.0 to 1203.0 and 1232.0 to 1238.0
Support should appear near 1164.0 then 1136 to 1130 and the 1101 to 1096 region.
MARCH COPPER
Resistance should appear near 28740 to 28830 and the 29280 to 29370 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 30360 to 30450.
Support should appear near 28290 to 28200 then 27750 to 27580 and the 26720 to 26630 region.
MARCH SILVER
Support should appear near 1535.0 to 1529.0 and the 1496.0 to 1484.0 region. Below that a test of 1459 to 1453 is likely.
Resistance is at 1609.0 to 1615.0 and the 1642.0 to 1655.0 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1689.0 to 1696.0.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
JANUARY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 6430 to 6417 then 6350 to 6337 and the 6035 to 6027 region.
Resistance should appear near 6743 to 6755 the 6809 to 6836 and the 6990 to 7003 region.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 7074 to 7088
FEBRUARY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 6591 to 6577, then 6430 to 6417 and the 6350 to 6337 region.
Below that a test of 6190 to 6165 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 6659 to 6673 then 6743 to 6755 and 6809 to 6836. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6990 to 7003 and the 7143 to 7170 region. Aggressive BW Traders should go short if a close under 6737 occurs.
JANUARY BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 7003 to 6990 region. Below that a test of 6919 to 6906 and is likely.
A extended trade under augurs for a test of 6673 to 6659
Resistance should appear near 7143 to 7170 and 7242 to 7255. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7328 to 7342 and the 7414 to 7428 region.
JANUARY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 21340 to 21260 and the 20890 to 20800 region. Below that a test of 20420 to 20340 is likely.
Resistance should appear 21700 to 21850 and 22190 to 22260. Beyond that sellers should appear near 22670 to 22750 and 22900. Traders can sell at 22650 and hold for lower prices.
JANUARY UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear 18080 and the 17800 to 17740 region. Below that at test of 17380 to 17310
is likely.
Resistance should appear near 19020 to 19090 then 19460 to 19530 and the 20340 to 20420 region.
JANUARY NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear 4.110 to 4.120 and the 4.238 to 4.249 region.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 4.370 to 4.381
Support should appear near 3.929 to 3.909 and the 3.867 to 3.868 region.
Below that buyers should appear near the 3.623 to 3.613 region.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JANUARY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1013 ¾ to 1010 ½ and 973 ¾ to 970 ¾.. Below that a test of 934 3/4 to 931 ¾ is likely.
Resistance should appear near 1032 to 1036 then 1047 and the 1058 to 1068 region.
JANUARY SOYOIL
Support should appear near 3157 to 3148 and the 3102 to 3092 region. Below that a test of 3045 to 3036 is likely.
Resistance should appear near the 3377 to 3386 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3425 to 3443 and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 3371 and hold for lower prices.
JANUARY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 385.8 to 386.7 and 390.9 to 392.9.
Support should appear near 361.3 to 362.3 and 356.3 to 355.3. Below that buyers should appear near 338.6 to 337.3
MARCH CORN
Support should appear near 374.3 to 373.4 and 368 ¼ to 366 ¼, below that a test of the
356 ¼ to 355 ¼ region is likely
Resistance should appear near 398 ¼ to 399 ¼ and 411 to 412
MARCH WHEAT
Support should appear near 543 to 541 ¾ and 521 ¼ to 520. Below that a test of 492 ¾ to 491 ½
is likely to occur.
Resistance should appear near 585 ½ to 588 and the 594 ½ to 595 ¾ region
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
DECEMBER CATTLE
Support should appear near 16550 to 16420 and 16150 to 16090.
Resistance should appear near 16960 and 17310 to 17380.
FEBRUARY CATTLE
Support should appear near 16550 to 16420 and 16150 to 16090.
Resistance should appear near 17310 to 17380 and the 17740 to 17800 region.
APRIL CATTLE
Support should appear near 16550 to 16420 and 16150 to 16090.
Resistance should appear near 16960 and the 17310 to 17380 region.
FEBRUARY HOGS
Support should appear near 8777 to 8762 and the 8682 to 8667 region. Below that a test of 8317 to 8302 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 9037 to 9067 and the 9137 to 9157 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9312 to 9342. Traders can sell at 9107 and hold for lower prices
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 9062 to 9042 and the 8967 to 8932 region. Below that a test of 8872 to 8857 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 9137 to 9157 and the 9312 to 9347 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9427 to 9447 and 9527 to 9542
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MARCH COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 19020 to 19090 then 19820 to 19960 and 20800 to 20890
Support should appear near the 18650 to 18580 region. Below that support should appear near 17380 to 17310.. Below that 16980 to 16890 should bring out buyers and contain a decline… Stay tuned for Flashes
MARCH COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2874 to 2883 then 2928 to 2937 and the 3036 to 3045 region…
Support should appear near 2775 to 2758. Below that a test of 2724 to 2716 and the 2620 to 2612 region is likely Trade Accordingly
MARCH SUGAR
Resistance is near 1569 to 1575 and the 1609 to 1615 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1642 to 1655.
Support should appear near 1535 to 1529 below that a test of 14359 to 1453 is likely.
MARCH COTTON
Support should appear near 5577 to 5553 and the 4995 to 4973 region.
Resistance is at 6165 to 6190 and 6335 to 6350 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Friday November 28, 2014 2:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
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