FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 437 December 15 2013 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see http://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time.” — Thomas A. Edison–
Saturday December 14, 2013
11:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
We are now in holiday markets. Traders should stay nimble and tune in for Day Trades, BW flashes and Updates for all markets. FuturesCom is rolling analysis to February for Energy products and will begin to include Brent Crude in this issue. Analysis for Soybeans will roll to March.
Stocks closed mixed but only a tad higher on Friday. All major U.S stock averages are up on the year and year over year. The Dow is currently down for the month of December. December historically ranks as the second best month of the year with an average gain of 1.50%. With eleven trading days left in the year the averages need a good bounce to keep history its side which generally has shown the Dow Jones Industrial Average to settle at or near last Monday’s close on January 3. Considering that both the Dow Jones Industrial average and SP500 tend firm into December and generally into the end of the year and Long term ‘yearly’ technical patterns for U.S. stock index averages remain friendly and are ‘just turning up’ traders should consider Buying March Dow Mini Futures on the open Monday for a trade.
The Euro is still in the same trading range is slightly higher on the year, remains a trading affair and is now pushing the outer edges of resistance after the ECB disappointed Euro bears at its last meeting. Swiss Francs futures hit resistance and backed off. The SNB reiterated its policy to defend the cross between Euro and Swiss Franc and also said the high level of Swiss is likely to continue. Swiss Futures are slightly higher on the year and up on the month. Dollar-Yen tested the highs of the year last week. Traders should look for a continued upward bias in Dollar –Yen. Forex traders should remain long Dollar-Yen and buy dips. While some profit taking is overdue the long term Dollar-Yen remains friendly. Long term Cable charts have turned friendly. The Aussie continues to act weak against the Dollar, a bounce is overdue however the Aussie remains well off its highs of the year and traders should look for a more range bound trade and consider the Aussie a trading affair. The long term work remains bearish. Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request. For more information please call or email a request.
Lasting lows in WTI Crude usually occur after the year–end passes into February. Look for a stable perhaps firm Crude after the end of next week into Mid-January. Natural Gas has left the area to the upside. Lumber closed sharply higher on Friday, up nearly the limit. Copper closed a bit higher, acts better than it has and typically firms into the early part of the New Year. Consider buying a dip and getting long. Gold and Silver remain a trading affair and are consumed buy Fed news and lack thereof while the Bond markets are in the same boat. Silver has a tendency to bounce after this week into the second week of January but is lower on the year and year over year, same with Gold. Generally bear markets tend to end the month on weakness and the opposite is true for bull markets.
Soybeans, wheat and corn all lost ground over the last week. Sugar continued its decline unabated. Cocoa remains firm and Coffee appears to be trying to break out of its recent trading range to the upside, is up on the month and typically acts better into the end of the year. Cotton also appear to be trying to break out of its recent trading range is up on the month, typically acts better into the end of the year and is also up on the year. Buy dips for trading and get long. Seasonally Feb Cattle tends to lose a bit its steam into the first two weeks of December and has done that, the backend of April and June tend to rally into the first part of January and are holding steady.. Traders should consider buying April or June Cattle for a trade. Cash Hogs remain weak, the back end contracts remain firm, Traders can sell Feb and April Hogs for a trade and also look to buy a dip in June and establish long June and July against short Feb and April Hogs.
Onto the nitty-gritty, stay tuned for further analysis across all markets
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near the 15,690.00 region where buyers should contain declines. Below that support should appear near 15,520.00 and 15,350.00 to 15,290.00.
Nearby resistance is at 15,760.00 and 15,925.00. A close or extended trade over is friendly and augurs for an eventual test of 16,090.00 to 16,150.00.
MARCH E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near the 1774.00 to 1780 region and the 1808.00 to 1822.00 region.
Support should appear near 1756.00 and the 1738.00 to 1731.00 region.
Resistance remains appear near the 4046.00 to 4056.00 region. Beyond that a test of 4110.00 to 4120.00 is likely.
Support should appear near 3992 to 3982 and 3955.00. Below that buyers should appear near the 3939.00 to 3909.00 region and contain declines.
MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3443.00 to 3425.00. Below that buyers should appear near the 3386.00 to 3377.00 region.
Resistance is at 3493.00 to 3503.00, beyond that a test of the 3553.00 to 3563.00 region is likely. Aggressive Traders should go long if a close over 3469.5 occurs.
MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear at 1115.50 and 1130.00 to 1136.00. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1150.00 and eventually the 1164.00 to 1169.00 region.
Support should appear near 1101.00 to 1096.00 then 1082.00 and 1068.00 to 1058.00
MARCH 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 130-21 and 131-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 132-07 and 133-07. Traders can sell at 133-06 and risk a close over 133-27 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 129-07, under that buyers should appear near 128-21 then 127-21 and 126-07 which should contain a decline.
MARCH 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 124-21, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 125-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 126-07 and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 123-21 and 123-07, below that 122-21 should contain a decline.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8044 then 8081 and the 8119 to 8134 region.
Support should appear near 8029 then 7991 and the 7954 to 7939 region.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 9706 to 9737 and 9821 to 9837.
Support should appear near 9641 to 9625, below that a test of 9542 to 9525 is likely.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13615 and the 13460 to 13340 region. Below that a trade towards
13220 is likely.
Resistance should appear near the 13770 to 13830 region. Beyond that a test of 13990 is likely.
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360, beyond that a test of 11500 and the 11640 to 11690 region is likely to occur and should cap rallies.
Support is near 11155 and the 11010 to 10960 region, which should hold.
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 16222 and the 16150 to 16090 which should contain declines.
Resistance remains near 16420 to 16550. Beyond that a test of 16720 is likely
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9438 to 9445. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 9478 beyond that sellers should appear near 9529 to 9542 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 9347 to 9316 and should contain declines in the short term an extended trade under is negative and augurs for a test of 9235 and eventually the 9156 to 9140 region.
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 8871 to 8856, below that a trade towards 8777 to 8762 and the 8683 to 8668 region is likely to occur.
Resistance should appear near 9044 to 9060 and 9100. Above that sellers should appear near 9150 to 9156 and cap a rally. Trade Accordingly….
THE PRECIOUS METALS
Nearby resistance should appear near 1253.00, beyond that a test of 1268.0 to 1274.0 is likely. Above that sellers should appear near 1289.0 and 1304.0 to 1310.0
Nearby support remains near 1232.0, a close or extended trade under is negative and augurs for a test of the 1203.00 to 1192.00 region, below that buyers should appear near 1136.00 to 1130.00.
Pick Your Poison
Resistance should appear near 33190 to 33280, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 33770 to 33860 and the 32250 to 34430.
Support should appear near 32700 to 32610 and the 32130 to 31970 region which should contain declines. Traders can buy at 32170 and hold for higher prices. Stay tuned for flashes
Support should appear near 1953 to 1946 then 1909 to 1902 and the 1865 to 1858 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1822 to 1808.
Resistance is at 1982 to 1996 then 2034 to 2042 and 2080 to 2089. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2126 to 2134.
Pick your poison.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
FEBRUARY CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 9706 to 9737 and the 9821 to 9837 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9921 to 9937
Support should appear near 9542 to 9526 and the 9347 to 9316 region. Below that buyers should appear near 9156 to 9140. Trade Accordingly
FEBRUARY BRENT CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010 and the 11300 to 11360 region. Where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 10680 to 10580. Below that buyers should appear near 10360 to 10320.
FEBRUARY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 29720, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 29370 to 29280 and the 28830 to 28740 region.
Resistance should appear 30360 to 30450 then 30685 and the 30920 to 31020 region.
FEBRUARY UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near the 26200 to 26120 then 25680 to 25620 and the 25190 to 25110 region
Resistance should appear near 26630 to 26720, beyond that sellers should appear near 27160 to 27240 and the 27580 to 27750 region.
FEBRUARY NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 4571 to 4582, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 4845 to 4856 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 5056 to 5067 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 4056 to 4046 then 3929 to 3909 and the 3867 to 3858 region.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
Support should appear near 1310.00 1304 region, an extended trade or close under is negative and augurs for as test of 1289 and the 1274 to 1268 region.
Resistance should appear near 1334 to 1346, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1377 to 1383 where sellers should appear and cap rallies. Trade Accordingly…
Resistance should appear near 4110 to 4120. Above that a test of 4163 to 4183 is likely should bring out sellers, beyond that 4238 to 4249 should cap rallies.
Support should appear near 3992 to 3982 region. Below that buyers should appear near 3929 to 3909.
Resistance should appear near 430.4 to 431.5 and the 437.0 to 438.1region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 442.5 to 444.6 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 418.3 to 416.3. Below that buyers should appear near 412.0 to 411.0 and the 405.6 to 404.6 region. Below that 399.2 to 398.2 should hold.
Support should appear near and 418 ¼ to 416 ¼ then 412 to 411 and the 399 ¼ to 398 ¼ region.
Resistance should appear near 430 ½ to 431 ½ and the 437 to 438 ¼ region. Beyond that 442 ½ to 444 ¾ should bring out sellers and cap a rally.
Resistance should appear near 633 ¾ to 635 and 641 ¾ to 643. Beyond that sellers should appear near 648 ¾ to 650 ¾.
Support should appear near 619 to 616 ½ and the 603 ½ to 602 ¾ region. Below that a testy of 588 to 585 ½ is likely and should hold.
Stay tuned for Grain Flashes.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
Support should appear near 13237 should bring out buyers… Failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 13100 to 13040 which should hold.
Resistance should appear near 13340 to 13460 and 13530. Beyond that a test of the 13770 to 13830 region is likely and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 8692 to 8682 and the 8592 to 8557 region a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 8407 to 8392.
Resistance should appear near 8757 to 8772 and the 8857 to 8872 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8932 to 8962.
Support should appear near 914 and the 9062 to 9042 region. Below that buyers should appear near
8967 to 8932.
Resistance should appear near 9237 and the 9317 to 9347 region.
Support should appear near 9937 to 9922 and the 9837 to 9822 region.
Resistance should appear near 10102 to 10137 and the 10317 to 10357 region.
Stay tuned for Livestock flashes.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
Support should appear near 11360 to 11300, below that buyers should appear near 11010 to 10960.
Resistance should appear 11640 to 11690 above that a test of 11920 to 12030 is likely.
Stay tuned for Flashes.
Resistance should appear near 2820 to 2829. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 2874 to 2883 and eventually the 2928 to 2937 and 2972 to 2990 region.
Support should appear near 2758 and 2724 to 2716. Below that buyers should appear near the 2672 to 2663 region. Stay tuned for Flashes
Resistance is near 1642 to 1655 and 1689 to 1696.
Support should appear near 1576 to 1569 and the 1535 to 1529 region.
Support should appear near 8223 to 8194 and 8134 to 8119. Below that the 8044 to 8029 region should hold. Traders can buy at 8135 and hold for higher prices.
Resistance is at the 8392 to 8406 region. Beyond that a test of 8668 to 8683 is likely.
Stay tuned for flashes.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
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