FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 392 Sunday March 25, 2012 Equity Indices • Treasuries • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Softs.
Equities and Treasuries have both moved toward some relatively extreme price levels, Equity traders are preparing for the end of quarter window dressing in a positive direction with consensus viewing the US economy moving in the ‘right’ direction. That said seasonally the Stock Market begins to act a bit toppy this time of year and buyers of dips tend to want to buy less..
Forex traders who sell Rallies in Cable during the end of March and early April usually are rewarded with lower prices into the end of June. Look for the Yen strength to abate a bit , expect a widely range- bound Japanese Yen, high energy costs are not a plus for Japan and energy does not appear to be getting cheaper.. Speaking of energy …risk concerns in the Middle East will likely build up during April…
Traders should Buy Dips in Crude Oil. Concomitantly risk concerns in the Euro zone will likely emerge once again during April…
Sell Rallies in Euro and Swiss Franc and stay tuned for flashes. Last fall, the Swiss National Bank intervened in Forex markets and instituted a peg for the Euro/Swiss Franc exchange rate of 1.20 to 1 and has said it will defend that level with unlimited funds. Since then the Swissy has been closely following Euro zone market sentiment. While the peg has mitigated substantial flight to safety out of the Euro zone and into Swiss during the recent debt debacle Swiss economic data has remained soft and Swiss multinational corporations still have their backs against a wall from the exceedingly high Swiss Franc during 2011. Combine this with a strong tendency for dollar Swiss and dollar in general to gain momentum into the summer traders should maintain long dollar posture and consider adding to longs. Also keep an eye on for changes in Swiss banking secrecy laws this would be considered supportive for the dollar and help the SNB achieve its goal of bringing the Swiss lower over the near future.
Seasonally Hog prices firm at the end of March into May, however exports have been lackluster and supplies are building in hopes for exports to re-emerge. Frozen pork supplies typically increase by 3% for the month of February. Thursday’s cold storage numbers were an obscenely high 625 million pounds, up 7% from last month and up 9% from last year to a new end-of-February record. That’s a lot of pork lying around and may be breaching storage capacity.
While the market is probing for a seasonal low strength now will likely come after Easter and after Friday’s USDA release of their March inventory survey. Traders should be defensive, be prepared to play both side of the Pork market. However prices are not cheap by any means and we are likely to lower prices over the next year, hog slaughter during the fourth quarter of 2012 should be above 30 million head. That is a level that could put serious pressure on slaughter capacity and thus force a drop in hog prices after any seasonal that rally does occur this spring.
Stay tuned for updates and flashes in all markets.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKETS
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Support should appear near 13,040.00 and the 12,740.00 to 12,680.00 region.
Resistance should appear near 13,340.00 to 13,460.00 and cap a rally.
JUNE E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 1399.000 and the 1415.00 to 1421.00 region
Support should appear near 1383.00 to 1377.00. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 1346.00 to 1334.00 region
Resistance should appear near 3092.00 to 3102.00 and the 3148.00 to 3157.00 region.
Support should appear near 3045.00 to 3036.00 and the 2990.00 to 2972.00 region.
JUNE E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Resistance should appear near 2758.00 to 2775.00 and the 2820.00 to 2829.00 region
Support should appear near 2724.00 to 2716.00 region Below that a test of 2672.00 to 2663.00 is likely, failure there augurs for a test of 2620.00 to 2612.00 which should contain a decline.
JUNE E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near the 830.00 to 831.40 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 839.10 to 840.60 and 848.40 to 849.90 and cap a rally
Support should appear near 813.40 to 811.90 and 804.40 to 802.90, below that a test of 795.40 to 793.90 is likely to occur.. Trade accordingly.
JUNE 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 138-07 and 139-21, beyond that sellers should appear near 140-07 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 137-07 and 136-21… Below that a test of 135-21 is likely
JUNE 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 130-07 and 130-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near
131-07 and cap a rally
Support should appear near 128-21 and 128-07 a close under is negative and augurs
for a test of 127-07 and 126-21
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8029 to 8044 a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of
8119 to 8134
Support should appear near 7954 to 7939 and the 7864 to 7836 region, which should contain a decline.
JUNE JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 12175 and the 12320 to 12380 region. Traders can sell at 12312 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near the 12030 to 11920 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 11690 to 11640. Trade accordingly and stay tuned for flashes
JUNE EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13220 and the 13100 to 13040 region.
Resistance should appear near the 13340 to 13460 region
JUNE SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 11082 and 11155 and 11300 to 11360
Support should appear near 11010 to 10960, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10820 and the 10680 to 10580 region.
JUNE BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 15760 to 15690 and 15525
Resistance should appear near 15927 and the 16090 to 16150 region Traders can sell at 15922 and hold for lower prices.
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10021 to 10037 and 10104 to 10136.
Traders can sell at 10017 and hold for lower prices…
Support should appear near 9937 to 992 below that a test of 9837 to 9821 is likely
JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10580 to 10680. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10820.
Support should appear near 10360 to 10320 and 10136 to 10104
THE PRECIOUS METALS
Resistance should appear near 1672 and the 1689 to 1696 region
Traders can Sell at 1688 and hold for lower prices… Beyond that sellers should appear near
1731 to 1738.
Support is near 1655 to 1642, below that a test of the 1615 to 1609 region is likely.
Resistance should appear near 39090 to 39290 and the 39820 to 39920 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 40460 to 40560 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 38060 to 37950, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of
36820 to 36630 and the 36230 to 36130 region
Resistance should appear near 3319 to 3328 and 3425 to 3443
Support is at 3213 to 3193 and 3102 to 3092 region. Below that a test of 3045 to 3036 is likely.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
APRIL CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 10820 and the 10960 to 11010 region Beyond that a test of 11300 to 11360 is likely.
Support should appear near 10680 to 10580 and the 10360 to 10320 region. Traders can buy at 10477 for a bounce and hold for higher prices. Below that buyers should appear near 10185 and the 10136 to 10104 region
APRIL HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 31570 to 31480 and the 31020 to 30920 region.
Resistance should appear near 33190 to 33280 and the 34250 to 34430 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 36130 to 36230.
APRIL UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 33280 to 33190 and 32700 to 32610. Below that buyers should appear near 32130 to 31940and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 34250 to 34430 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 36130 to 36230.
APRIL NATURAL GAS
Support should appear at 2185 to 2170 and the 20890 to 20800 region
Resistance should appear near 23150 to 23220 and the 2411 to 2419 region. .
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
Support should appear near 1346 to 1334 and the 1310 to 1304 region
Resistance should appear near the 1377 to 1383 and 1453 to 1459
Resistance should appear near 373.4 to 374.3 and the 385.8 to 386.7 region
Support should appear near 362.3 to 361.3 and 350.3 to 349.3
MAY BEAN OIL
Resistance should appear near 5553 to 5577 and the 5640 to 5653 region.
Support should appear near 5356 to 5344 and 5282 to 5259.
Support should appear near 635 to 633 ¾ a close under is negative and augurs for a test of
619 to 616 ½ and the 603 ½ to 602 ¼ region.
Resistance should appear near 648 ¼ to 650 ¾, beyond that sellers should appear near 665 ¾ to 667 ¼ and cap a rally.
Resistance should appear near 674 ¾ to 675 ½ and the 680 ¾ to 683 ¾ region Beyond that sellers should appear near 690 ¾ to 691 ¾ and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 635 to 633 ¾, failure there is negative and indicates a trade towards the
619 to 616 ½ region.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
Support should appear near 12030 to 11920 region, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 11690 to 11640 region
Resistance should appear near 12320 to 12380 and 12530
Support should appear near 8407 to 8392 and the 8317 to 8302 region
Resistance should appear near 8557 to 8587 and the 8667 to 8682 region
Support should appear near 9157 to 9142, below that a test of 9062 to 9042 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 9317 to 9347 and the 9427 to 9447 region.
Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes and Updates.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
Support should appear near the 17380 to 17310 and the 16960 to 16890 region.
Resistance should appear near 18080 to 18220 and the 18580 to 18620 region. Traders can sell at 18070 and hold for lower prices.
Resistance should appear near 2411 to 2419 and the 2552 to 2568 region. Traders can sell at 2411 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 2275 to 2267 and the 2185 to 2170 region. Below that buyers should appear near 2089 to 2080 and the 1953 to 1946 region.
Support is at the 2519 to 2511 and the 2469 to 2461 region, failure there is negative and augurs for a test of the 2419 to 2411 region.
Resistance should appear near 2612 to 2620 and the 2663 to 2672 region.
Resistance should appear near 9044 to 9060 then 9140 to 9156 and the 9316 to 9347 region.
Support should appear 8871 to 8856 region. Below that a test of 8683 to 8668 and the 8314 to 8300 region is likely.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Sunday March 25, 2012
11:00 AM South Florida Beach Time
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