William Chippas
http://www.futurescom.com 1-561-369-2789 FAX 1-561-731-5174
2301 S Congress Avenue # 923 Boynton Beach, Florida, 33426 U.S.A
December Existing home Sales are Reported at 10:00 AM on Monday Est at 4.0 mln.
A trader should not swear eternal allegiance to either a bull or bear side. His concern lies with being right.
On the Frenzied Forex Front.
The March J-Yen: The closed up 49 on Friday. We bought JYH on Thursday 1-23 at 8406, some traders may have sold out for profit, however we do feel the JYH should work its way higher. Selling pressure will continue to be seen near 8520 next week. Above that a spurt into the 8700 within two weeks region is not out of the question. If this were to happen we would be sellers for a continuation of the trend lower. If the JYH holds the 8420 support region early next week a rally into the 8490 region perhaps as high as 8577 is likely. Resistance on Monday is 8488 then 8560 to 8577. Support is near the 8402 to 8420 region where we would be buyers. Protect you self with a stop close under 8390 for two days
The March Swiss Franc completely fell out of bed over the last two weeks as our objective of 7200 was met and our probing of the long side near 7300 proved futile.
However an oversold condition still existed and we entered the long side on Wed 1-22 at 7003. If still long use a stop under stop close under 7052 for protection. The close over 7133 indicates a thrust into the 7210 to 7217 region where we would like to sell out some longs and lighten the position.
Early support next week is near 7110 where hearty traders should buy for that turn. Risk 20 pts. Early Resistance is at 7160 then 7188 to 7210. We would Go short near 7245 for a resumption of the trend down.
March British Pound was smashed last week. We would go long on a close over 163.10 for a rally into the 164 to 166 region. Risk 80 pts after entry.
March D-Mark become vastly over sold last week. We felt compelled to stand in front. If for no other reason than not one trader we new wanted to buy. We bought on Wed 1-22 at 6113.
DMH has support near 6107 where we would buy again with a risk of 30 pts. Resistance is near 6167 then 6221 to 6231 where we would gladly sell our longs and look for a spot to short for a resumption of the trend Down. Ideally near 6337.
Trade accordingly
The Precious Metals: Feb gold acts as if it cannot get out of its own way. The Contract low is now 347.3 set last Thursday. However Friday�s Rally to 355 and close of 353 gave us a mini buy signal and we resumed purchases of Gold Calls.
In Fact we will be bold and Recommend buying December 1997 Gold Calls for under 110 if able. The odds are unlikely that Gold will go up over $ 50 in the next 6 Months, but if it does ......
We feel gold has value at these levels and should be accumulated for longer term positions. Technically speaking Feb Gold needs to hold over 339 for any upward trade to occur. Resistance is now near 360
Trade accordingly.
�March Silver never closed under previously mentioned critical 463 level. A rally back to 480 to 484 is where sellers will show up. Our target for March Silver is now 492. A close over 488 would cause some bears to run and the Silver would then pop into the 503 region if it holds.� - FuturesCom 1-11-1997-
Silver will be the first of the Precious Metals to lead the way.
Silver is may also be one of the only commodity on the board that has EVER increased in value 50 TIMES during it�s traded history. If you find another, let me know. Sugar has come close.
Silver should be bought on pull backs into the 483 region if able. Longer Term we would like to see a thrust over 520 to feel confident a low may be in. A rally to 515 would encourage us to sell off a few long accumulated during this period of weakness. We then would like to roll to May or July on the next break.
Be long and Buy dips.
March Copper has a near term target of 110 level. However a reasonable decline Should be bought. Support Early next week is 105.10 where would go long with stops under 102.80 Nearby resistance is at 107.10 tom 107.70 then 108.50. A close over 108.50 augers for a test of 109.45 and 111.10 where we would take some profits on longs.
Be long with stops....
The Exciting Energies
March Crude Oil Long Term patterns and fundamentals still suggest higher prices.
Crude Oil has declined almost $ 2.00 since it�s peak ion January 9 at $ 26.05 We remain Friendly to Crude but will only buy weakness. Next Week early support is near 2397 where we would probe the long side using a stop under 2377. More support remains in the 2358 region which we consider a buying opportunity. Resistance remains near 2447 . a close over 2470 indicate a thrust back into the Bull pattern and a move to 2530. Failure to hold 2358 on a three day closing basis is negative, the result would be a test of 2250.
We will include analysis on the products in FuturesCom�s Morning Comments.
The Grande Grains:
March Beans
Two weeks ago the USDA Grain Report caused heavy short covering in Beans. However inability to close over the critical 752 region urges Caution. Recent declines to 738 should have been bought as Suggested in FuturesCom�s Daily morning comments. Resistance has been Firm near 747 to 752 as we suggested going short in our morning Letter. However our bias is to the long side. Stronger exports have helped provide a firm tone the Beans We suggest Buying March Beans 739 1/2 next week and risk a close under 737. Below that Support is near 725 1/2 where we would buy for a bounce. Resistance is near 753 1/2 then 755 3/4 beyond that 767 1/2 to 773 3/4 is where we would like to exit any extra longs and sit for a day or two.
I will say this, tightness of Soybeans is not expected to last beyond the Old crop. The Spread between the nearbys the Backs is unusually high. If any problem surfaces during the Growing Season Beans will go to over $ 10.00 this year. Stay tuned....
March Corn.. Has been rather dull lately, however the close on Friday was supportive to the market and we suggest a test of higher levels is now likely. We would like to start buying the back end and pray for a long awaited drought to surface this year.
Long term traders may wish to go long a few Corn Contracts and sell calls and keep it in their back pocket. The supply demand situation can change rather quickly once the growing season starts and that is only a few months away.
Technically speaking Monday�s trade will be an important one. Friday March Corn closed at 272 3/4 the high close for a the week. Support is near 271 if that holds early next week a test of 376 is likely where we would sell for a turn. A close over 277 would indicate a thrust over the critical 280 region Trade accordingly.
Wheat: July Wheat: We still advocate purchases of Wheat for a rally up to the 380 region Risk a close under 335 for two days. A close over 351 augurs for a test of 357 to 360. Support today is near 339 3/4 which we need to hold to stay in the current Pattern. Resistance is near 346. A close over 347 would indicate the sellers are backing off. We prefer to hold our longs for now.
Softs: The FutureCom Morning Comments 01/03/97 5:58 AM March Coffee �Long Term work still suggests a rally into the 142 region. Trade accordingly.� Settlement on 1-06 114.05
March Coffee has Reached our Target once again. On Friday the Short sale at 141.80 was elected on the opening , upon reopening the March Coffee traded down to the 138 region. However only aggressive players should be short A pull back down to 123 is now likely and would enable long term traders to Buy Coffee for July or Seep Why? Because if Coffee can maintain a Bull posture at a level over 120 during the Next few months where will it go during the Freeze Season....1.80 or 1.90 is likely.
Stay Tuned.
For Monday Resistance is near 13770 to 13880 where aggressive traders can sell for a turn. With a stop over 141.10. More Resistance is near 139.45 to 139.65. Which if looking to short is safer. The Failure to move higher than 136.95 would indicate a decline to 13445 is likely below that 133.85 is where we would buy for a bounce with a 100 pt risk.
Trade accordingly. FuturesCom 1-11-1997 We are friendly to March cotton. However we will refrain from major purchases until close over 7400 is achieved. Support near 7320 where we would have buy orders resting for a 3 two day bounce at 7315 More support is near 7265. Resistance is near 7390 then 7420 to 7435 then 7485 to 7520. The last two weeks low was 7288 on 1-21 the close on 1-24 Friday was 7460 with a high of 7525....
Cotton may even trade into the 7800 .... Support is near 7340 where we would be a buyer with a two day stop under 7300 Basis the close.
Resistance is near 7580 then 7615 then 7702.
Sugar: Our attempt at standing in front of the �Sugar Express Train� proved futile as we were stopped out with losses and were happy to accept the 20 to 30 pt loss. However the Sugar did move to a profit after our suggested buy area was touched. Afterwards momentum failed and the Sugar Market was flushed.
The next two week may be uneventful and dull as sugar tries to back and fill for the next move.
Monday support is near 1015 where we might like to probe the long side for a 2-day trade use a stop under 999. Resistance is near 1055 where we would sell for a turn, with a stop over 1080.
March Cocoa We never really went into the long side of Cocoa the week after the last BI-weekly letter. However we did buy and lose during the Daily work.
We did however suggest going long at 1268 on 1-23 and were rewarded with a low 1259 And a reversal of 48 pt on Friday.
If long March Cocoa use a stop under 1303 basis the close. Support is near 1304 and then 1297 down to 1284 where we would buy for a bounce, holding only if it closes over 1311. Resistance is near 1332 then 1369 t
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