FuturesCom Investment Publications
Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook, Sunday Nov 12, 2000
On the Web Since 1996 & Dedicated to Excellence
Socio Economics, Stock Index Futures: Nasdaq - SP500 - Dow Jones Industrial Avg
-Bonds - Forex - Energy- Precious Metals -
-Livestock - Grain and Soft Commodity Future Markets
Bi-Weekly Investment Outlooks Morning Comments Special Reports Index Flashes
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Description of Services Performance Archives
"If the Creator had a purpose in equipping us with a neck,
he surely meant for us to stick it out. "--- Arthur Koestler
Sunday, November 12, 2000
5:00 AM
recommended positions and performance are listed at the end of the letter..
The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
Dec SP500
Resistance is at 1377 to 1380 and 1383, a close over 1383 augurs for a test of 1399 and the 1415 to 1421 region.. Beyond that a resistance is at 1429…while a close over 1421 should be friendly and augur for an eventual test of 1437.. Traders can sell at 1437 and risk a close over 1353 for three days in a row … Beyond that sellers should appear near the 1456 to 1459 region. Above that sellers should appear near 1471.50 and the1484 to 1496 region.
Nearby Support should appear near 1361.50 then 1353.90. Under that a test of 1346 is likely .. Below that buyers should appear near 1334 to 1330.40..Under that a slip towards 1322 and the 1310 to 1304 region…Traders who have ‘Ice Water Running Through Their Veins’ can buy two at 1310 and hold for higher prices. Under that buyers should appear near the 1289 region and 1274 to 1268..
Traders should go long if a close over 1383 occurs
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Updates
Dow Jones Industrial Avg.
Resistance should appear near10,630 to 10,680. An extended trade over 10,680 is friendly and indicates a test of 10,820. Beyond that resistance is at 10,960 to 11,010.
Nearby Support should appear near the 10,580 to 10,525 region. Below that support is at 10,470 and the 10,360 to 10,320 region. Under that support is at 10,257.
Cash NASDAQ
Resistance should appear near 3036 to 3045 and 3092 to 3102. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3148 and the 3194 to 3213 region. Above that a test of 3261 to 3270 is likely to occur. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3319 to 3328 and the 33775 to 3386 region.
Support should appear near 2990 to 2972 and 2937 to 2928. Below that buyers should appear near 2883 to 2874 and the 2829 to 2820 region. Below that support is at
2775 to 2758.
Trade Accordingly
Dec Bonds
Support should appear near 99-05 to 98-29 and 98-12. Under that Buyers should appear near 97-28 then 97-16 and 97-07.
Resistance is at 99-14 then 100-00 and 100-14. Beyond that sellers should appear near 101-02 then 101-17 and the 102-07 region.
The Frenzied Forex Front
Over the last several weeks we have seen the European Central Bank intervene in the Forex mkts. to support the EC...
I commend the ECB for their efforts as most large funds, analysts and specs laughed it off. It reminds me of the intervention by the JCB and US when the yen was much much higher.. the pundits claimed it would not work.. and for a brief period it did not..but eventually it did...
What puzzles me is to hear the Sec of the Treasury, Summers’ comment, that a Strong Dollar has helped the US…. Ok it has helped !! But what now ?
is it helping and will it continue to help? Has it gone to far ?
Think about it.. the Govt now has a huge surplus while the US Corporations are suffering
It is my opinion that the strong dollar has over the last year been and is still a detriment to U.S. firms …
Foreign earnings are diminishing , and it is getting more difficult to export products for a profit...Sounds kind of like the Japanese situation during the 1990's .. and one has to remember what happened to Japan ...
Would the boys in the govt. rather play out their time, take the easy way out by claiming the Govt is doing well rather than suggest a cure for the ills of companies in their own country before it’s too late ?
Is their hope is for a recovery in demand for products that are unique to the US ?
Not likely as our farm goods are too expensive for the rest of the world based on the strong dollar.. and the overseas firms will eventually reproduce our technology.. which has happened before and surely will again !
Thus all U.S. Corps may write off any hope of overseas sales, and begin to firm up earnings with layoffs and cost cutting measures rather than increasing productivity.
Which may come at a time when the US consumer is feeling the pressure of the lower stock mkt , and in my opinion beginning to dis-believe the general thought of investing in the mkt is the best way to go.
A reasonable solution would to let the dollar dip a bit, either by joining the intervention to support the EC and force the shorts out, which would re-enforce the European Union,
over the long haul in my opinion a sound policy..
Or by the Fed taking a easing stance for a bit and drop rates…
As it stands a continued strong Dollar policy, in my opinion may lead to a
Disaster that no one wants to see! -
Dec Japanese Yen
Support should appear near 9316 and 9237, under that support is at the 9156 to 9140 region.
Resistance should appear near 9331 and 9347. A close over 9347 is friendly and augurs for a test of the 9429 to 9445 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 9347 occurs
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Flashes and Updates
Dec Swiss Franc
Resistance should appear near the 5716 to 5729 region where sellers should appear and cap a rally for a bit. However a close over 5729 is friendly and augurs for a test of 5792 to 5805 and eventually the 5855 to 5880 region...
Support should appear near 5653 to 5640. Traders can buy at 5653 and hold for higher prices. Initially plan on risking a close under 5610 for three days in a row. Below that buyers should appear near 5577 to 5553 and the 5504 to 5492 region, which should contain a decline for a bit.
Traders should go long if a close over 5729 occurs.
Stay tuned for Flashes...
Dec Euro
Support should appear near 8589 to 8560. Traders can buy at 8589 and risk a close under 8560 for three days in a row. Below that buyers should appear near 8535 and the 8500 to 8485 region.. Under that buyers should appear near the 8406 to 8391 region.
Nearby Resistance is at 8668 to 8683 , an extended trade or close over 8689 is friendly and indicates a test of the 8762 to 8777 region..Beyond that a trade towards
8856 to 8871 is likely…
Traders should go long if a close over 8689 occurs.
Trade Accordingly..
Dec British Pound
Support should appear near1.4210 to 1.4150 and should continue to contain the decline. However failure there augurs for a test of 1.4092 and the 1.3996 to 1.3883 region…Traders can buy at 1.3996 for a bounce , risk a close under 1.3883 for three days in a row.
Resistance is at 1.4338 to 1.4370 and the 1.4530 to 1.4590 region… A close over 1.4590 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1.4694 and the 1.4710 to 1.4730 region. Beyond that a test of 1.4840 to 1.4900 is likely. Above that sellers should appear near 1.4960.
Dec Canadian Dollar
Support should appear near the 6482 region..Under that support is at 6430 to 6417.
Traders can buy at 6431 for a turn higher ,risk a close under 6417 for three days
in a row.
Resistance is at 6509. A close over 6509 is friendly and augurs for a test of 6577 to 6591and eventually the 6659 to 6673 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 6509 occurs.
Trade Accordingly and Stay tuned for FuturesCom's Forex Flashes
Precious Metals
Dec Gold
Support should appear near the 262 to 261 region.. Below that support is at 256.8 to 255.20
Resistance is at 266.3 to 267.2, a close over 267.2 is friendly and augurs for a test of 271.6 to 272.4 . Beyond that sellers should appear at 275.2 to 277.
Traders should go long if a close over 267.20 occurs..
Dec Copper
Support is at the 8315 to 8300 region. Traders can buy at 8320 and risk a close under
8300 for three days in a row… Under that support is at 8225 to 8195 and the 8135 to 8110 region…
Resistance should appear near 8390 to 8405 , a close over 8405 is friendly and augurs for a test of 8485 to 8500, a close over 8500 is bullish and indicates a test of 8560 to 8590 and eventually the 8665 to 8685 region and beyond towards 8760 to 8775..
Traders should go long if a close over 8405 occurs..
Dec Silver
Support should appear near 472 to 469.5 and the 465 to 463.5 region.. Traders can buy at 465.5 and risk a close under 463 for three days in a row. Below that buyers should appear near 458.5 to 457..
Resistance is at 477.5 to 479.0 a close over 479.0 is friendly and augurs for a test of 484.5 to 486 and eventually the 491.5 to 493. region
Trade Accordingly and stay tuned for Flashes
The Exciting Energies
Jan Crude
Resistance is at 3319 to 3334 beyond that resistance is at 3377 to 3386, which should Cap a rally for a bit.. Above that sellers should appear near the 3425
to 3443 region. Traders can short at 3424 and risk a close over 3468 for three days in a row. Beyond that good sellers should appear near 3493 to 3503.
Below that buyers should appear near 3102 to 3092 and the 2990 to 2978 region..
Traders can buy at 2990 for a bounce , risk a close under 2928 for three days in row.
Traders should go short if a close under 3293 occurs.
Stay Tuned for Updates…
Jan Unleaded Gas
Support should appear near 8590 to 8560, a close under 8560 is negative and augurs for a test of 8500 to 8480 and the 8405 to 8390 region. Under that a test of 8315 is likely. A close under 8300 is negative and augurs for a test of 8225 to 8190 and eventually the 8135 to 8120 region.
Resistance should appear near 8760 to 8775 then 8855 to 8870, beyond that resistance is at 8935 to 8965 then 9040 to 9060 . Beyond that resistance is at 9140 to 9160 and the 9235 region , which should Cap a Rally.
Traders should go short if a close under 8560 occurs..
Jan Heating Oil
Resistance is at 9925 to 9935 above that sellers should appear near 10020 to 10040 and the 10105 to 10135 region. Beyond that resistance is at 10320 to 10360. Traders can sell at 10320 and hold for lower prices.. Above that resistance is at 10580 to10680.
Support is near 9835 to 9820, a slip under augurs for a test of 9735 to 9705 and the 9640 to 9620 region, under that 9540 to 9520 offers support.. Below that buyers should appear near 9445 to 9425 region and 9345 to 9315. Which should contain a decline for a bit.. Traders can buy at 9345 for a bounce , risk a close under 9235 for three days in a row..
Resistance is at 5.504 and 5.553 to 5.577, Beyond that sellers should appear near 5.640 to 5.653 and the 5.716 to 5.729 region, Well heeled traders can sell at 5.715 and hold for lower prices, Above that 5.855 to 5.880 should cap a rally…
Stay Tuned for Energy Updates
The Grand Grains
Support should appear near 465 to 463 3/4 , below that support is at 458 1/2 to 457.
Traders can buy at 458 1/2 and risk a close under 450 1/2 for three days in a row.
Below that buyers should step in near 444 3/4 to 442 1/2.
Nearby Resistance is at 477 1/2 to 478 3/4. A close over 478 3/4 is friendly and augurs for an eventual test of 491 to 492 3/4. Traders should go long if a close over 478 3/4 occurs.
Dec Soy Meal
Resistance should appear near 168.9 to 169.6. Above that sellers should appear near
171.40 and the 173.1 to173.8 region.
Support is at 164.2 then 161.5 to 160.9, Traders can buy at 161.5 for a bounce, risk a close under 160.9 for three days in a row.. Under that support is at 157.6 to 156.9
Dec Soybean Oil
Support is near the 1946 to 1484 and the 1459 to 1453 region, under that buyers should appear near 1421 to 1415..
Resistance should appear near the1529 to 1535 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1569 to 1576.
March Corn
Resistance should appear near 226 3/4 to 227 1/2, beyond that sellers should appear near 231 to 232 and the 235 1/2 to 237 region.
Support should appear near 222 3/4 to 221 1/2 under that buyers should appear near the 218 1/2 to 217 region. Below that buyers should appear near 213 1/2 to 212 3/4 under that Traders can buy at 210 3/4 , risk a close under 208 for three days in a row…
March Wheat
Support should appear near the 272 1/2 to 271 3/4 region . Under that support is at
267 1/2 to 266 1/2. Traders can buy at 267 1/2 and risk a close under 261 1/2 for three days in a row..
Resistance is at 275 3/4 to 277 1/2 . A close over 277 1/2 is friendly and augurs for a test of 282 to 282 3/4 and the 287 1/2 to 288 1/4 region..
Traders should go long if a close over 277 1/2 occurs.
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Updates in the Grain Markets
March Cotton
Support should appear near the 6755 to 6740. Traders can buy at 6745 and hold for higher prices.. Below that support should appear near 6675 to 6655 and the 6590 to 6575 region. Which should contain a decline.
Resistance is at 6840. Above that resistance is at 6905 to 6935. A close over 6935 is friendly and augurs for a test of 6990 to 7005 and the 7075 to 7090 region.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 7145 to 7170
Aggressive Traders should go long if a close over 6875 occurs.
March Coffee
Support is near the 7865 to 7835, aggressive traders can buy at 7865 and hold for higher prices… Below that buyers should appear near 7775 to 7760 the 7690 to 7675 and the 7600 to 7580 region.
Resistance should appear near 7940 to 7955. A close over 7955 is friendly and augurs for a test of 8030 to 8045. Beyond that a resistance is at 8120 to 8135. A close over 8135 is friendly and indicates a test of 8195 to 8225 and the 8300 to 8315 region
Traders should go long if a close over 8135 occurs..
March Sugar
Resistance is at 932 to 941 and 968 to 972 . Beyond that sellers should appear near 1000 to 1005 and 1032 to 1036
Support should appear near the 912 to 907. Under that 882 to 877 offers support.
Below that a test of 852 to 847 is likely…
Trade Accordingly
March Cocoa
Resistance is at 767. Beyond that sellers should appear near 779 and the
791 to 795 region.
Support is at 739 to 735 . Below that buyers should appear near 712 to 704.
Dec Cattle
Support is near 7172 to 7142. Under that buyers should appear near the 7092 to 7072 region. Traders can buy at 7092 and risk a close under 7072 for three days in a row.
Below that 7002 to 6987 should hold…
Resistance is at 7192 to 7207 and 7242 to 7257 a close over 7257 is friendly and augurs for a test of 7327 to 7342. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7412 to 7427.. Traders can sell at 7412 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 5252, an extended trade under or close under 5252 augurs for a test of 5212 to 5197, and the 5142 to 5127 region… Under that buyers should appear near the 5067 to 5057 region… Traders can buy at 5067 and hold for higher prices.. Below that buyers should appear near 4997 to 4972
Resistance should appear near 5282… Above that Sellers should appear near 5342 to 5357 then 5417 to 5432 and the 5492 to 5507 region.
Traders should go short if a close under 5252 occurs..
Support is at 6432 to 6417 , a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 6352 to 6335 and the 6272 to 6257 region..Under that buyers should step in near 6192 to 6162 and contain a decline. Stay tuned for Flashes….
Nearby resistance is at 6482 to 6512, and 6577 to 6592, beyond sellers should appear near the 6657 to 6672 region. Traders can sell at 6652 for a turn lower, risk a close over 6677 for three days in a row.
Traders should go short if a close under 6417 occurs..
Stay tuned for Livestock Updates and Flashes
A ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that's not what ships are built for.
Happy Trading
Sunday November 12, 2000
1:11 PM
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING ARE RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
Copyright @ 2000 FuturesCom investment Publications All Rights Reserved
FuturesCom is Not Responsible for electronic or transmission errors.
FuturesCom Investment Publications
FuturesCom Investment Publications Performance as of 11-10-2000
Value of All Programs Combined:
Feb 1997 $ 55,000.00 Starting Value
Feb 1998 $ 156,863.95
Feb 1999 $ 510,797.05
12-31-1999 $ 985,301.15
09-02-2000 $ 1,334,994.40
09-30-2000 $ 1,330,333.70
10-27-2000 $ 1,329,209.75
11-10-2000 $ 1,388,332.75
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Premier Service Flashes + 985 % since inception
1998 + 296 % 1999 +94.5 % 2000 +41.5 % * (calendar yr)
Archives : http://www.futurescom.com/premier.htm
02-09-1998 Inception Value $ 101,863.95 Inception Value
01-01-2000 Value $ 741,034.25
02-24-2000 Value $ 786,154.75
08-18-2000 Value $ 957,785.75
09-02-2000 Value $ 987,527.75
09-30-2000 Value $ 992,755.25
10-13-2000 Value $ 956,212.75
10-27-2000 Value $1,004,165.30
11-10-2000 Value $1,050,317.80
Recommended Open Positions as of 11-10-2000
Long 2 Dec Gold 279.70
Long 2 Dec Yen 9378
Long 6 Dec EC 8619 avg
Long 5 Dec Wheat 268 3/4
Long 2 March Coffee 7960
Short 8 Dec Crude Oil 3275 avg
Long 5 Dec Swiss Francs 5708
Long 5 Dec Silver 473.5
Short 7 Dec Hogs 5272.5
Long 10 Feb Short 10 april Hogs 98.75 avg
Bi Weekly Investment Outlook(BW)
1997 + 185 % 1998 + 94% 1999 + 109 % 2000 + 51.5%
Archives: http://www.futurescom.com/bwparc.htm
02-13-2000 Value $ 55,000.00 tracking year starting value
08-18-2000 Value $ 70,417.90 6 month
09-02-2000 Value $ 74,181.00
09-30-2000 Value $ 72,091.60
10-13-2000 Value $ 58,142.60
10-27-2000 Value $ 78,201.35
11-10-2000 Current Value $ 83,179.35
Recommended Open positions as of 11-10-00
Long 2 Feb / Short 2 April Hogs 85.0
Morning Comments ( MC )
1999 + 172 % 2000 + .5 %
Archives : http://www.futurescom.com/mcper00.html
02-13-2000 Value $ 50,000.00 tracking year starting value
08-18-2000 Value $ 53,586.15
09-02-2000 Value $ 50,849.90
09-30-2000 Value $ 55,621.15
10-13-2000 Value $ 44,508.65
10-27-2000 Value $ 49,174.40
11-10-2000 Value $ 50,384.90
Recommended Open Positions as of 11-10-2000
NONE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Index Program 2000 + 35.7 %
Archives: http://www.futurescom.com/indexfl.htm
02-13-2000 Inception Value $ 150,455.70
08-18-2000 Value $ 218,715.70
09-02-2000 Value $ 222,435.70
09-30-2000 Value $ 209,865.70
10-13-2000 Value $ 167,645.70
10-27-2000 Value $ 197,695.70
11-10-2000 Value $ 204,450.70
Recommended Open positions as of 11-10-00
None
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Material Assumptions:
FuturesCom’s Tracking Begins and Ends during February.
Starting Value was established at $55,000 for BW in Feb. 12 1997 and each year there after. Gains from the Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook(BW) during 1997 funded the Premier Service in 1998. Gains from the BW in 1998 funded the Morning Comments (MC) in 1999. Gains from MC and BW in 1999 funded the Index Program for the year 2000. Each trade is derived from FuturesCom's Bi-Weekly Investment Outlooks, Morning Comments, Index Flashes , Premier Flashes and updates that pertain to the same. The slippage and fees are computed at $ 50.00 per round turn trade, and charged upon exit. Prices are derived from Entry and exits of related Futures Contracts. Updates of trade results are periodically made to http://www.futurescom.com
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKET IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
Copyright @ 2000 FuturesCom investment Publications All Rights Reserved
FuturesCom is Not Responsible for electronic or transmission errors.