FuturesCom Investment Publications
Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook, Saturday Dec 30, 2000
Socio Economics, Stock Index Futures: Nasdaq - SP500 - Dow Jones Industrial Avg
Bonds - Forex - Energy- Precious Metals --Livestock - Grain and Soft Commodity Future Markets
Bi-Weekly Investment Outlooks Morning Comments Special Reports Index Flashes
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Observation. Experience, memory and mathematics--These are what a successful trader must depend on. A man can have great mathematical ability and unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also
Possesses the experience and memory. -Reminiscences of a Stock operator-
Saturday, December 30, 2000
7:30 AM
The Year 2000 trading year has ended… The Stock mkt has fallen from it’s lofty
Levels at the beginning of the year , the Nasdaq has dropped some 39 % since the ‘New Economy Advocates’ were chasing the Techno Bubble while Dancing in the streets on New Years Eve… while at the same time told John Q. Public to join in or get left behind!! Now the same pundits (albeit fewer of them are around) are saying it’s all over sell now and don’t forget to toss the baby out with the bath water….
The Dow closed the year mildly lower dropping 6 % while the SP500 was off by 10 %
“Over the last several weeks we have seen the European Central Bank intervene in the Forex mkts. to support the EC... I commend the ECB for their efforts as most large funds, analysts and specs laughed it off. It reminds me of the intervention by the JCB and US when the yen was much higher.. the pundits claimed it would not work.. and for a brief period it did not. but eventually it did...
What puzzles me is to hear the Sec of the Treasury, Summers’ comment, that a Strong Dollar has helped the US…. Ok it has helped !! But what now ?
is it helping and will it continue to help? Has it gone to far ?
Think about it.. the Govt now has a huge surplus while the US Corporations are suffering
It is my opinion that the strong dollar has over the last year been and is still a detriment to U.S. firms …
Foreign earnings are diminishing , and it is getting more difficult to export products for a profit...Sounds kind of like the Japanese situation during the 1990's .. and one has to remember what happened to Japan ...
Would the boys in the govt. rather play out their time, take the easy way out by claiming the Govt is doing well rather than suggest a cure for the ills of companies in their own country before it’s too late ?
Is their hope is for a recovery in demand for products that are unique to the US ?
Not likely as our farm goods are too expensive for the rest of the world based on the strong dollar.. and the overseas firms will eventually reproduce our technology.. which has happened before and surely will again !
Thus all U.S. Corps may write off any hope of overseas sales, and begin to firm up earnings with layoffs and cost cutting measures rather than increasing productivity.
Which may come at a time when the US consumer is feeling the pressure of the lower stock mkt , and in my opinion beginning to
dis-believe the general thought of investing in the mkt is the best way to go.
A reasonable solution would to let the dollar dip a bit, either by joining the intervention to support the EC and force the shorts out, which would re-enforce the European Union,
over the long haul in my opinion a sound policy..
Or by the Fed taking a easing stance for a bit and drop rates…
As it stands a continued strong Dollar policy, in my opinion may lead to a
Disaster that no one wants to see! “ – FuturesCom 11-12-00
What has occurred over the last 6 weeks ?
The EC has Rallied about 9% or 777 pts since the close on the Nov 13th
Can it help avert a disaster ? Probably only time will tell.. In the meantime lets take a look at our farm goods and Equity prices..
Grain prices are marginally higher .. March Soybeans low on the 11/13 was 480 The close on Friday was 509 3/4 …While the real Bull of the Bean complex Soymeal was near 166.00 and close Friday 189.6…Wheat is about the same But had a late rally Friday that portends to higher prices..While Corn is higher by 8 cents or so since
Nov 13. and Bean Oil is lower..
US Equity Prices are Mixed with the SP500 closing Friday at 1320 , the low on Nov 13 was 1328…The Dow Industrials was near 10,600 and the Nasdaq was at 2900 ish…
Top old line U.S Corporations have cut earning forecasts, notified employees of layoffs, Some have cut back on production plans and announced plans to shut the doors…
A Step in the right direction…though hard to stomach !
However many New Economy Corps still can’t figure it out and might go broke in the meantime as their CEO’s who lead the way up would rather jump ship rather than show how the tough can get going as the going gets tough !
So Be it…
The next Step is the Fed needs to Cut rates …a Step that should occur shortly..
Additionally the American people need to have an Administration that acknowledges the Problems facing the Economy , Not one that just tells US how good it has been !
Well, one is thing is finally for certain, we will have a new Administration…one that appears willing to face the problems and economic issues facing us as we move forward as it has announced plans to host an Economic forum next week …
Enough said ….On to the nitty gritty.
(open positions and performance figures are at the end of the letter)
The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
March SP500
Nearby Resistance is at 1340 to 1346 then 1350.30 and 1353.50 to 1353.80… However a close over 1346 is friendly and augurs for an eventual test of 1361.50 and more likely 1377 to 1383. A close over 1383 augurs for a test of 1399 and the 1415 to 1421 region.. Beyond that a resistance is at 1429…while a close over 1421 should be friendly and augur for an eventual test of 1437.Which should cap a rally towards the end of January If it holds…
Nearby Support should appear near 1334.Under that a slip towards 1322 to 1319.50
Is likely..Below that support is at 1310 to 1304 and the 1274 to 1268 region….Under that
Buyers should appear near 1256 and the 1238 to 1232 region …
Traders who Sleep on a Bed of Nails can buy at 1238 and Hold for higher prices..
Initially plan on Risking a close under 1232 for three Days in a row..
Traders should go long if a close over 1361.50 occurs
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Updates
Dow Jones Industrial Avg.
Resistance should appear near 10,820. An extended trade over 10,820 is friendly and indicates a test of 10,960 to 11,010. Beyond that resistance is at 11,155..and 11,300 to 11,360
Nearby Support is at 10,757 then 10,680 and the 10,630 to 10,580 region. Under that support is at 10,520 then 10,470. Below that a test of 10,360 and the 10,340 to 10,320 region is likely.
March Bonds
Resistance should appear near 105-00 and 105-08 . Beyond that sellers should appear near 105-23 then 106-17.
Support is at 104-07 and 104-00, under that buyers should appear near the 103-17 region..
The Frenzied Forex Front
Support should appear near 8791 under that a test of 8772 to 8762 is likely.. Below that Buyers should appear near 8734 to 8723, and the 8683 to 8668 region…Traders can buy at 8683 and Hold for higher prices…
Resistance should appear near 8856 to 8871. A close over 8871 is friendly and augurs for a test of 8934 to 8964 and eventually the 9040 to 9060 region. Which is more likely than not to occur…
March Euro
Nearby Support should appear near 9383 and the 9347 to 9316 region. Below that support is at 9235 and the 9156 to 9140 region. Traders can buy a pullback at 9160 and risk a close under 9140 for three days in a row…
Nearby Resistance is at 9429 to 9445 , an extended trade or close over 9445 is friendly and augurs for a test of 9526 to 9542 Beyond that sellers should appear near 9583 and the 9625 to 9641 region … Traders can sell at 9583 for a turn lower, risk a close over 9642 for two days in a row…Above that 9706 to 9737 should cap a rally..
Trade Accordingly..
March Swiss Franc
Nearby Resistance should appear near 6257 to 6270 . Beyond that resistance should appear near the 6337 to 6350 region where sellers should appear and
cap a rally for a bit. Traders can sell at 6337 and hold for lower prices risking a close over 6432 for three days in a row …
Nearby Support should appear near 6190 to 6165 a slip under augurs for a test of 6139 and eventually the 6113 to 6101 . Below that a test of 6035 to 6023 and the 5957 to 5945 region is likely where buyers should appear and contain a decline..
Traders can buy at 5958 for a bounce and risk a close under 5945 for two days in a row .
Traders should go short if a close under 6165 occurs..
Stay tuned for Flashes...
March British Pound
Support should appear near the 1.4900 to 1.4840, traders can buy at 1.4840 and hold for higher prices, risk a close under 1.4710 for three days in a row..Below that 1.4590 to 1.4530 should contain a decline..
Resistance is at 1.4960, a close over 1.4960 is friendly and augurs for a test of
1.5112 and eventually the 1.5290 to1.5350 region.
Trade accordingly and stay tuned for flashes
March Canadian Dollar
Support should appear near 6673 tom 6659..Under that support is at 6623 below that a test of 6591 to 6577 is likely.
Resistance is at 6707 and the 6741 to 6755 region, traders can sell at 6741 and hold for lower prices.. risk a close over 6783 for three days in a row..Above that 6809 to 6836 should cap a rally..
Trade Accordingly and Stay tuned for FuturesCom's Forex Flashes
Precious Metals
Feb Gold
Support should appear near the 272.4 to 271.6 region.. Below that support is at 269.4 and the 267.20 to 266.2 region should hold.. Traders can buy at 272.7 and hold for higher prices…
Resistance is at 275.8 to 277.5 , a close over 277.5 is friendly and augurs for a test of 282.0 to 282.9
Traders should go long if a close over 277.5 occurs..
March Copper
Support is at 8405 to 8390 and the 8315 to 8300 region. Traders can buy at 8320 and hold for higher prices.. Below that support is at 8225 to 8190 and should contain a decline…under that 8135 to 8115 bring out buyers from the woodwork
Resistance should appear near 8485 to 8500, a close over 8500 is friendly and augurs for a test of 8560 to 8590 and most likely the 8760 to 8775 region… Beyond that a test of 8855 to 8870 and beyond is likely
Traders should go long if a close over 8500 occurs..
March Silver
Support remains near 461 Below that buyers should appear near 458.5 to 457
and the 451.5 to 450 region.. Traders can buy at 458.5 and hold for higher prices
Risk a close under 449 for three days in a row…
Resistance is at 464 to 465.5 and the 469.5 to 471.5 region. A close over 471.5 is friendly and augurs for a test of 477.5 to 478.5 and beyond to 484.5 to 485.5
Traders should go long if a close over 471.5 occurs.
Trade Accordingly and stay tuned for Flashes
The Exciting Energies
Feb Crude
Resistance is at 2758 to 2775 and the 2820 to 2829 region. Beyond that resistance is at 2874 to 2883 and the 2928 to 2937 region , which should Cap a rally for a bit Traders can sell at 2928 for a turn lower, initially plan risk over 2990 for two days in a row and stay tuned
Under that buyers should appear near 2519 to 2511 while 2469 to 2461 should contain a decline …
Stay Tuned for Updates…
Feb Unleaded Gas
Support should appear near 7865 to 7835, below that support a test of 7775 to 7760 and the 7690 to 7675 region is likely . Under that a test of 7600 to 7580 is likely .
.A close under 7585 augurs for a test of 7255 to 7240 Below that support is at
7170 to 7140 and the 7005 to 6990 region.. Failure there augurs for a test of 6835 to 6810, traders can buy at 6835 and hold for higher prices..
Resistance should appear near 7940 to 7955 then 8025 to 8045, beyond that resistance is at 8115 to 8135… Above that sellers should appear near 8195 to 8225, which should Cap a Rally. Traders can sell at 8190 and hold for lower prices.
Risk a close over 8315 for three days in a row…
Feb Heating Oil
Resistance is at 8935 to 8965, above that sellers should appear near 9040 to 9060 beyond that resistance is at 9140 to 9160 and 9235..Traders can sell at 9235 and hold for lower prices, risk a close over 9385 for three days in a row Beyond that sellers should appear near 9425 to 9445 and the 9525 to 9545 region.
Support is near 8870 to 8855, a slip under augurs for a test of 8775 to 8760. Under that 8590 to 8560 offers support… a close under 8560 is negative and augurs for a test of
8500 to 8485 then 8405 to 8390 and the 8315 to 8300 region, under that support is at
8135 to 8115 and the 7955 to 7935 region
Traders should go short if as close under 8560 occurs
Stay Tuned for Energy Updates
The Grand Grains
Nearby Support is at 506 3/4 to 503 3/4 Traders can buy at 506 3/4 and risk a close under 497 1/4 for three days in a row. Below that buyers should step in near 492 3/4 to 4911/2. Under that 485 3/4 to 484 1/2 should provide support..
Nearby Resistance is at 512 1/2 to 514.. an extended trade over 514 is friendly and augurs for a test of 520 to 521 1/4 and 525 3/4 to 528 .. Beyond that a test of 534 1/2 to 535 3/4 is likely.. A close over 535 3/4 augurs for an eventual test of 541 3/4 to 543
Traders should go long if a close over 514 occurs.
March Soy Meal
Nearby resistance should appear near 190.2 to 190.9 .. A close over 190.90 augurs for a test of 198.2 to 199.60 and the 203.0 to 204.2 region.
Support is at 188.8. Under that support is at 186.5 to 185.8.. Traders can buy at 186.7
and hold for higher prices . Below that support is at 182.20 to 180.80 and the 178.0 to 177.0 region
Traders should go long if a close over 190.9 occurs.
March Soybean Oil
Support is near the 1459 to 1453 region and 1421 to 1415…
Traders can buy at 1421 and hold for higher prices…
Resistance should appear near the 1496 then 1529 to 1535 and 1569 to1576.
March Corn
Resistance should appear near 232 1/4 , beyond that a test of 235 1/2 to 237 then
241 1/4 to 242 and the 246 1/4 to 247 region is likely
Support should appear near 227 1/2 to 226 3/4 , Traders can buy at 227 3/4 and hold for higher prices.. Under that buyers should appear near the 222 3/4 to 221 3/4 region
Below that 218 1/2 to 217 1/2 should hold.
March Wheat
Support should appear near the 277 1/2 to 275 3/4 region .. Traders can buy at 276 3/4 and hold for higher prices.. under that buyers should appear near 272 1/2 to 271 3/4
and the 267 1/2 to 2661/4 region.
Resistance is at 282 to 282 3/4 and the 287 1/2 to 288 1/4 region.. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 292 3/4 to 293 3/4 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 283 occurs.
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Updates in the Grain Markets
March Cotton
Support should appear near 6115 to 6100 . Under that buyers should appear near 6035 to 6020.. Traders can buy at 6035 and for the pull…
Resistance is at 6255 to 6270 then 6335 to 6350, a close over 6350 is friendly and augurs for a test of 6415 to 6430 .
Traders should go long if a close over 6350 occurs.
March Coffee
Support is near the 6510 to 6485 below that buyers should appear near the 6430 to 6415 region , which should hold. Traders can buy at 6435 and hold for higher prices..
Below that Buyers should appear near 6350 to 6335..
Resistance should appear near 6575 to 6590 . A close over 6595 is friendly and augurs for a test of 6655 to 6675 and the 6740 to 6755 region..
Traders should go long if a close over 6595 occurs
March Sugar
Resistance is at 1032 to 1036 and the 1058 to 1068 region is likely to occur… Above that sellers should appear near 1096 to1101. Traders can sell at 1096 and risk a close over 1136 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near the 1005 to 1000 and 972 to 968. Under that 941 to 932 offers support. Traders can buy at 972 and risk a close under 932 for two days in a row , under that support should appear near 912 to 907 and the 882 to 877 region.
Trade Accordingly
March Cocoa
Resistance is at 763 to 767 and the 791 to 795 region
Support is at 739 to 735 then 712 to 704. Below that buyers should appear near the
686 to 682 region.
Feb Cattle
Support is near 7777 to 7762, a close under 7762 is negative and augurs for a test of
7712 and the 7687 to 7672 region.
Resistance is at 7835 to 7865 region…Beyond that sellers should appear near 7935 to 7955 and the 8020 to 8045 region..
Traders should go short if a close under 7762 occurs
Support should appear near 5652 to 5642, a close under 5642 is negative and augurs for a test of 5577 to 5552 and the 5507 to 5492 region Under that buyers should appear near 5432 to 5417..
Resistance should appear near 5717 to 5732.. Beyond that sellers should appear near 5792 to 5807 and Cap a rally for a bit.. Traders can sell at 5787 and hold for lower prices.. Beyond that resistance is at 5852 to 5882…
Traders should go short if a close under 5642 occurs…
Support is at 6512 to 6487 and the 6432 to 6417 region A close under 6417 is negative and augurs for a test of 6352 to 6337 and the 6272 to 6257 region. Below that Support is at 6192 to 6162 and the 6037 to 6022 region..
Nearby resistance is at 6657 to 6672 and 6742 to 6757. Beyond sellers should appear near the 6807 to 6837 region.. Traders can sell at 6802 and hold for lower prices.. Beyond that resistance should appear near 6907 to 6917
Traders should go short if a close under 6572 occurs…Stay tuned for Livestock Updates and Flashes
A ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that's not what ships are built for
Happy Trading !
Saturday Dec 30, 2000
3:10 PM
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING ARE RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
Copyright @ 2000 FuturesCom investment Publications All Rights Reserved
FuturesCom is Not Responsible for electronic or transmission errors.
FuturesCom Investment Publications Performance and Positions as of 12-29-2000
Value of All Programs Combined:
Feb 1997 $ 55,000.00 Starting Value
Feb 1998 $ 156,863.95
Feb 1999 $ 510,797.05
12-31-1999 $ 985,301.15
02-13-2000 $ 1,041,610.45
12-29-2000 $ 1,347,458.70
Gain for 2000 $ 362,157.55 + 36.7 %
Total since 2/97 $ 1,292,458.70 + 2350 %
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Premier Service Flashes
Archives : http://www.futurescom.com/premier.htm
02-09-1998 Inception Value $ 101,863.95 Inception Value
01-01-2000 Value $ 741,034.25
02-24-2000 Value $ 786,154.75
12-29-2000 Value $ 1,018,532.80
Gain for 2000 $ 277,498.55 + 37.5 %
Recommended Open Positions as of 12-29-2000
Est Margin Requirements $ 285,000.00
Long 5 March Silver 474
Long 8 Dec SP500 1366.10 avg
Long 10 March Wheat 277 1/4 avg
Long 5 Feb Gold 273.4
Long 10 March SoyBeans 508 1/2 avg
Long 10 March Yen 8865
Long 5 March Dow 10930
Short 10 Feb Hogs 5612 avg
Bi Weekly Investment Outlook(BW)
Archives: http://www.futurescom.com/bwparc.htm
02-13-2000 Value $ 55,000.00 tracking year starting value
08-18-2000 Value $ 70,417.90 6 month
12-29-2000 Value $ 77,577.80
Gain Tracking Year to Date $ 22,577.80 + 41 %
Recommended Open positions as of 12-29-2000
Est Margin Requirement $ 25,000.00
Long March SP500 1344.8
Morning Comments ( MC )
Archives : http://www.futurescom.com/mcper00.html
02-13-2000 Value $ 50,000.00 tracking year starting value
12-29-2000 Value $ 53,597.40
Gain Tracking Year to Date $ 3,597.40 +7.2 %
Recommended Open positions as of 12-29-00 :
None
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Index Program
Archives: http://www.futurescom.com/indexfl.htm
02-13-2000 Inception Value $ 150,455.70
12-29-2000 Value $ 197,750.70
Gains Tracking Year to Date $ 47,295.00 + 31.5 %
Recommended Open positions as of 12-29-00
Est Margin Requirement $ 50,000.00
Long 2 March SP500 1355.10
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Material Assumptions:
FuturesCom’s Tracking Begins and Ends during February.
Starting Value was established at $55,000 for BW in Feb. 12 1997 and each year there after. Gains from the Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook(BW) during 1997 funded the Premier Service in 1998. Gains from the BW in 1998 funded the Morning Comments (MC) in 1999. Gains from MC and BW in 1999 funded the Index Program for the year 2000. Each trade is derived from FuturesCom's Bi-Weekly Investment Outlooks, Morning Comments, Index Flashes , Premier Flashes and updates that pertain to the same. The slippage and fees are computed at $ 50.00 per round turn trade, and charged upon exit. Prices are derived from Entry and exits of related Futures Contracts. Updates of trade results are periodically made to http://www.futurescom.com
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKET IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
Copyright @ 2000 FuturesCom investment Publications All Rights Reserved
FuturesCom is Not Responsible for electronic or transmission errors.