FuturesCom Investment Publications
Dedicated to Excellence in Analysis of Futures Markets
Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook (BW) Sunday January 16, 2000
Bonds.. SP500.. Forex.. Precious Metals.. Energies..Grains.. Livestock.. Softs
Featuring Bi-Weekly Investment Outlooks, Special Reports, Morning Comments and More
Experienced Since 1979 & Serving Professional and Individual Futures Traders World Wide since 1988
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"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the
unexpectable - ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is
justified in taking - chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile
mollusk--" Reminiscences of a Stock operator.
Sunday, Jan 16, 2000
12:39 PM
The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
March SP500
On the DownSide Nearby Support is at 1474.30 and 1471.50 region.
A close under 1471.00 is negative and augurs for a test of good support near 1465.10 and eventually the 1459 region. Below that support should appear near 1456 to 1453 which should stop a decline for a bit. However a close under 1453 is negative and augurs for test of 1437 level then eventually 1421 and the 1418 to 1415region.
Traders can buy at 1418.50 for a bounce and hold for higher prices.. Under that
support should appear near 1399 and 1383 to 1380 which should stop a decline.
A close under 1383 is negative and augurs for slip towards the 1377 level and eventually 1363 to 1361.50 Traders can buy at 1361.50 and hold for higher prices.
Nearby Resistance is at 1479 then 1484 and 1486.90. Traders can sell at 1486.90 and hold for lower prices , above that resistance is at 1490 to 1496 and 1499.50.
A close over 1496 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1512.5 and the 1529 to 1535 region where good sellers should appear and Cap a Rally for a bit . Traders can sell at 1529 and hold for lower prices. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1552 and the 1569 to 1576 region which should provide good resistance.
Aggressive Traders should go short if a close under 1474.3 occurs
Traders should Stay Tuned for SP500 Flashes
Dow Jones Industrial Avg.
Support is 11,690 to 11,640 under that buyers should appear near 11,530 t0 11,500,
a close under 11,500 is negative and indicates a slip towards the 11,360 to 11,330 region and eventually 11,300. A close under 11,300 augurs for a test of 11,212 then 11,155 and eventually 11,087 under that support should appear near 11,010 to 10,975 and 10,960.
Resistance should appear near 11,757 and 11,800. Beyond that a test of the 11,920 to 12,030 is likely. Above that resistance is should appear near 12,175. While good sellers should be evident near the 12,320 to 12,380 region and
Cap a Rally over the near term.
Cash NASDAQ
Support is at 4056 to 4046 and 4019. A close under 4019 is negative and augurs for a slip to 3992 to 3982 and eventually the 3929 to 3909 region.. Below that a test of 3867 is likely.
Nearby Resistance is at 4082. Beyond that some sellers should appear near 4110 to 4115 and 4120. Beyond that resistance is at 4160 to 4163 and 4175 to 4185.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 4205 Above that good sellers should Cap the Rally for a bit near the 4238 to 4249 region.
March Bonds
On the Upside Nearby resistance is at 90-07 then 90-24 and 91-16 to 91-21
Above that sellers should appear near 92-06 and 92-17 then 92-22 to 92-29. Beyond that sellers should appear near 93-08 and 93-22 to 93-28 Traders can sell at 93-06 and risk a close over 93-22 for three days in a row . Above that resistance is at 94-06 to 94-12 and 95-09 and 95-22...
On The DownSide nearby support is at 89-23. Below that support is at 89-17 to
89-07 and the 88-26 to 88-21 region Which should contain a decline for a bit. Below that support is at 87-21 then 87-06.
Traders go long if a close over 90-07 occurs.
Trade accordingly...
On the Frenzied Forex Front
March Japanese-Yen
Nearby Support should appear at 9542 to 9526. Under that support should appear near 9484 and the 9445 to 9423 region. Below that good buyers should appear
near 9347 to 9316.
Nearby Resistance is at 9581 to 9588. A close over 9588 is friendly and augurs for a test of 9625 to 9645. Beyond that resistance is at 9706 and the 9737 to 9757 region.
A close over 9737 is friendly and augurs for a test of 9780 and eventually the 9823 to 9837 region..
Traders should go long is a close over 9588 occurs. ....Stay Tuned for Flashes
March Swiss
Nearby Support is at 6302 and the 6270 to 6257 region which should contain a decline in the near term. Traders can buy at 6305 and risk a close under 6257 for three days in a row. Under that buyers should appear near 6223 and 6190 to 6165...
Nearby Resistance is at 6350 then 6386..A close over 6386 is friendly and augurs for a test of 6417 to 6430 and 6457.. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6482 to 6509. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 6577 to 6591 region. Traders can sell at 6577 and hold for lower prices. Above that sellers should appear near 6626 and 6659 to 6673.
Traders Should go long if a close over 6350 occurs.
Stay tuned for Flashes...
March British Pound
Support should appear near 1.6286 then 1.6202 and 1.6150, a close under augurs for a test of 1.6090 and 1.5998. Under that support at 1.5926 should bring out buyers.. Traders can buy at 1.5928 for a good turn higher , risk a close under 1.5926 for two days in a row. Below that 1.5760 to 1.5690 should hold. Traders can buy at 1.5760 and hold for higher prices..
Resistance is at 1.6420 region .. Traders can sell at 1.6420 hold for lower prices.
Initially Risk a close over 1.6486 for two days in a row. Above that Resistance is at 1.6550 then 1.66126 and the 1.6720 region. Beyond that good sellers should appear near 1.6890 to 1.6960 Traders can sell at 1.6890 and hold for lower prices..
Trade Accordingly and stay tuned for Flashes..
March Canadian Dollar
Nearby Support is at 6871 traders can buy at 6872 for a good bounce, risk a close under 6836 for two days in a row. Below that buyers should
appear near 6809, a close under 6809 augurs for a slip to 6783 and eventually the 6755 to 6741 region. Where buyers should appear and stop a decline
Resistance is at 6906 and 6919 then 6955 and the 6990 to 7002 region. Traders can sell at 6990 for a turn lower and risk a close over 7002 for three days in a row.
Beyond that resistance is at 7074 to 7090 and 7128.
Trade Accordingly and Stay tuned for FuturesCom's Forex flashes
Precious Metals
Feb Gold
Nearby Support is at 282.9 to 282.0, traders can buy at 282.8 for a turn higher, risk a close under 279.70 for three days in a row. Under that good buyers should appear near the 277.5 to 275.8 region and should contain a decline.
Resistance is at 285.1 , a close over 285.1 is friendly and augurs for a test of the 287.4 to 288.2 region and eventually 292.8 to 293.7. A close over 293.70 is friendly and augurs for a test of the 297 to 299 region and beyond.
Traders should go long if a close over 292.8 occurs.
March Copper
Nearby Support is at 8590 to 8560 then 8505 to 8485. Under that support is at 8405 to 8390.. Traders can buy at 8505 and .Risk a close under 8390 for three days in a row. Under that 8045 to 8315 to 8300 should hold. Below that support is at 8225 to 8190 and 8135 ...
Nearby Resistance is at 8655 and the 8760 to 8775 region Beyond that sellers should appear near 8855 to 8870 and cap a rally.. Traders can go short at 8855 for a turn lower and risk a close over 8965 for two days in a row. Beyond that good sellers should appear near 9045 to 9060.
March Silver
On the Nearby Support should appear near 514 to 512.5 and the 507 t0 504 region Aggressive Traders can buy at 507 and hold for higher prices.. Below that support is at 499 and the 492.5 to 491 region Aggressive Traders can buy at 492.5 and hold for higher prices.. Under that buyers should appear near the 486 to 484 region .
On the Upside. Nearby resistance is at 517 then 520 to 521.5, a close over 521.5 is friendly and augurs for a test of 526 to 528. Beyond that resistance should appear near 534 to 536 and 541.5 to 543.
Traders should go long if a close over 521.5 occurs.
Stay tuned for Flashes...
The Exciting Energies
March Crude
Resistance is at 2716 to 2724. A close over 2724 is friendly and augurs for a test of the 2758 to 2772 region.. Above that sellers should appear near 2820 to 2829 and the 2875 to 2885 region which should cap the rally for a bit.. Traders can sell at 2875 and risk a close over 2885 for three days in a row. Beyond that 2928 to 2937 should bring sellers out of the woodwork so to speak.. Aggressive trades can sell at 2928 and hold for lower prices... Beyond that 2972 to 2990 should cap any rally for a bit..
Nearby Support is at 2662 to 2663 and 2620 to 2612 then 2568 to 2552. Below that support should appear near the 2519 region. Traders can buy at 2519 and hold for higher prices. Under that 2469 to 2461 should contain a decline for the time being.
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned For Flashes
Mar Unleaded Gas
Resistance should appear at 7513, beyond that a test of 7587 to 7605 and eventually the 7675 to 7689 region is likely. Beyond that resistance is at 7760 to 7780. Traders can sell at 7755 and risk a close over 7780 for three days in a row. Beyond that resistance is at 7835 to 7865 and 7955.
Nearby Support is 7485. Under that support is at 7425 to 7410. A close under 7410 is negative and augurs for a test of 7340 to 7325 and eventually the 7170 to 7140 region ... Traders can buy at 7170 and risk a close under 7140 for two days in a row.
Below that buyers should appear near 7090 to 7075 and 7005 to 6990. Under that support is at 6835. Aggressive traders can buy at 6835 and hold for higher prices.
Mar Heating Oil
Resistance is at 7140 to 7170. A close over 7170 is friendly and augurs for a test of
7240 to 7255. Beyond that resistance is at 7325 to 7345 and 7414 to 7429 then 7486 to 7513.. Traders can sell at 7414 and risk a close over 7513 for three days in a row.
Nearby Support is at 7088 to 7077 and 7003 to 6990... Below that buyers should appear near 6835 to 6810 and 6783 then 6755 to 6741. Traders can buy at 6755 and hold for higher prices..
Trade Accordingly. and Stay tuned for Flashes
The Grand Grains
March Beans
Support is at 492 3/4 to 491under that support should appear near 485 3/4 to 484 traders can buy at 485 3/4 and hold for higher prices.. Under that support is at 478 3/4 to 477 1/2 and the 4713/4 to 469 1/2 area. Traders can buy at 471 3/4 and hold for higher prices.
Nearby Resistance is at 497 1/4 to 499 1/2. Then 503 3/4 to 506 3/4 ... However a close over 499 1/2 is friendly and indicates a test of the 512 3/4 to 515 region and eventually 520 to 521 1/2..Beyond that Good sellers should appear near 525 to 528 and 534..
Traders should go long if a close over 499 3/4 occurs.
Stay tuned for Flashes
March Soybean Meal
Support is near the 157.6 to 156.9 and 153.5 to 152.9 Traders can buy at 153.1 and hold for higher prices.. Under that 149.6 to 148.4 should hold.
Resistance is at 160.9 then 161.5 Beyond that a test of the 164.2 to 165.5 region is likely. A close over 165.5 is friendly and augurs for a test of 1.6720 and the 168.9 to
169.6 region. Traders can sell at 168.9 and risk a close over 169.6 for three days in a row.
March SoyBean Oil
Resistance is at 1642 to 1655 and 1689 to 1696.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 1731.
Support is at 1628 then 1615 to 1609 and 1576 to 1569.
March Wheat
Resistance is at 266 1/2 to 267 1/4 region. A close over 267 1/2 is friendly and augurs for a test of 271 3/4 to 272 1/2 and eventually the 275 to 277 1/2 region.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 282 to 283 and the 287 1/2 to 288 1/4 region.
Support is at 262 to 261, traders can buy at 262 and hold for higher prices Below that support is at 256 3/4 to 255. Under that buyers should appear near 252 to 250 3/4 and contain a decline.
Traders should go long if a close over 267 1/2 occurs
March Corn
Resistance is at 2211/4 to 222 3/4, beyond that sellers should appear near 226 3/4 to 227 1/4 and the 231 1/2 to 232 1/4 region. Traders can go short at 231 1/4 and risk close over 233 for three days in a row.
Support is at 218 1/2 to 217 under that 213 1/2 to 212 should hold and contain a
decline for a bit. Traders can buy at 213 1/2 for a turn higher , risk a close under 212 for three days in row Below that 208 3/4 should hold...
Trade Accordingly.
The Satisfying Softs
March Cotton
On the DownSide Nearby Support is at 5505 to 5490. Below that support is at 5430 to 5415 ... Aggressive traders can buy at 5430 for a turn higher ,risk a close under 5340 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 5280 to 5255 and the 5200 region.
Under that 5139 to 5127 should contain a decline.. Traders can buy at 5140 and hold for higher prices.
Resistance is at 5555 to 5577. A close over 5577 is friendly and augurs for a test of 5650 to 5655. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 5716 to 5729 region. A close over 5729 is friendly and augurs for a test of 5855 to 5880 and more likely 5945.
Traders can sell at 5945 for a turn lower, risk a close over 6035 for three days in a row.
Trade Accordingly
March Sugar
Support is at 538 to 534 which should contain a decline over the near term. However a close under 534 indicates a test of 515 to 507, traders can buy at 515 and risk a close under 490 for three days in a row..Below that 471 to 468 should hold...
Resistance is at 559 to 563, a close over 563 is friendly and indicates a test of the 582 to 586 region and beyond towards 593. Above that good sellers should appear near 601 to 609 Beyond that a test of 630 to 634 is likely.
Trade Accordingly
March 'the Monster' Coffee
On the DownSide, support is at 111.55 and 110.10 to 109.60 Which should hold and contain a decline for a bit. Traders can buy at 110.10 and risk a close under 109.60 for two days in a row.. Below that buyers should appear near the 108.20... Under that support is at 106.80 to 106.30 and 105.80.
On the Upside, Resistance should appear near 113.00 to 113.60, A close over 113.60 is friendly and augurs for a test of 116.40 to 116.9 and eventually the 119.40 to 120.30 region. Beyond that a touch of 123.2 to 123.80 and beyond towards 126.8
is likely..
Traders should go long if a close over 113.60 occurs
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Flashes
March Cocoa
Resistance is at 852 A close over 852 is friendly and augurs for a test of the 877 to 882 region. An extended trade or close over 882 indicates a test of the 907 to 912 region. Beyond that good sellers should appear near 932 to 941. Traders can sell at 932 for a turn lower, risk a close over 942 for two days in a row.
Support is at 833 under that 823 to 814 offers support .. Below that buyers should appear near 795 to 791 and the 767 to 763 region. Traders can buy at 776 and risk a close under 763 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 739 to 735..
Stay Tuned for Flashes.
The Lively Livestock
Feb. Cattle
Support is at 7077 then 7017 to 7002 and 6987. Under that support should appear near 6922 where Traders can buy at 6922 and risk a close under 6902 for three days in a row. Below that support near the 6837 to 6807 region should hold.
Resistance is at 7127 to 7142. Beyond that resistance is at 7242 to 7255 and the
7327 to 7342 region Traders can sell at 7322 for a turn lower..Risk a close over 7347
for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 5577 to 5552 and the 5507 to 5492 region, traders can buy at 5577 and risk a close under 5492 for three days in a row. Under that support is at 5432 to 5417 and 5387 Below that Support should appear near 5282 and hold...
Nearby Resistance should appear near 5637 to 5652 region. A close over 5652 is friendly and indicates a test of 5717 to 5727 and the 5857 to 5882 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 5942 to 5957 region.
Traders should Go long if a Close over 5652 occurs.
Feb Bellies
Resistance should appear near 8560 to 8587 a close over 8587 is friendly and
indicates a test of 8657 to 8667 and, most likely the 8762 region . A close over 8777 is bullish and indicates an eventual test of 8857 to 8872 and most likely the 8937 to 8967 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9037 to 9062..
Support is at 8497 to 8482 and 8407 to 8392..Traders can buy at 8412 and hold for higher prices... Under that 8317 to 8297should hold provide support . Below that
support should appear near the 8142 to 8117 region ... Traders Who Have ‘Ice water running through their veins’ can buy at 8142 hold for higher prices.. Under that Buyers should appear near the 8047 to 8027 region and stop a decline.
Traders Should Stay Tuned For Bi-weekly Flashes in the Pork complex...
A ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that's not what ships are built for.
Happy Trading
Bill
Sunday, January 16, 2000
6:59 PM
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
FuturesCom Totals as of 1-14-2000
Starting Total value Feb 1997 $ 55,000.00 (BW only)
Combined Value Feb 1998 $ 156,863.95 (BW Only)
Combined Value Feb 1999 $ 510,797.05 (BW and Premier only)
Combined Value 10-08-1999 $ 806,192.10 (BW, MC and Premier)
Combined Value 10-23-1999 $ 845,112.95 "
Combined Value 11-05-1999 $ 921,044.40 "
Combined Value 11-19-1999 $ 905,468.70 "
Combined Value 12-04-1999 $ 957,790.90 "
Combined Value 12-17-1999 $1,004,062.25 "
Combined Value 12-31-1999 $ 985,301.15
Combined Value 1-14-2000 $1,016,875.20
1-14-2000 BW recommended Open Pos. and Value
http://www.futurescom.com/bwparc.htm
2-12-99 Value 55,000.00
8-28-1999 Value 73,310.55
9-12-1999 Value 92,866.35
9-24-1999 Value 81,150.20
10-08 -1999 Value 91,406.15
10-23-1999 Value 86,586.60
11-05 -1999 Value 102,430.70
11-19-1999 Value 95,551.35
12-04 -1999 Value $ 113,090.25
12-17-1999 Value $ 121,539.10
12-31-1999 Value $ 102,616.75
1-14-2000 Current Value $ 102,779.55
BW Recommended Open Positions 1-14-2000
Long 2 March Coffee at 131.65 Avg.
Long 2 March Yen at 9807 Avg.
MC recommended Open Pos. and Value
http://www.futurescom.com/mcperf.htm
2-12-1999 Value 51,708.10
8-28 Value 92,507.60
9-12 Value 102,611.20
9-24 Value 103,069.50
10-08 Value 113,686.70
10-23 Value 107,552.10
11-05 Value 126,830.70
11-19 Value $124,088.10
12-04 Value $ 132,000.15
12-17 Value $ 144,625.15
12-31 Value $ 141,650.15
1-14-2000 Value $ 137,903.90
MC Recommended Open Positions NONE
1-14-2000 Premier recommended Open Pos. and Value
http://www.futurescom.com/premier.htm
2-09-1998 Value 101,863.95
2-23-1999 Value 404,088.95
Aug. 1 1999 Value 549,583.85
Aug 15 Value 583,476.55
Aug 28 Value 577,238.55
Sept 12 Value 593,734.25
Sept 24 Value 537,309.25
Oct 08 Value 601,099.25
Oct 23 Value 650,974.25
Nov 5 Value 691, 783.00
Nov 19 Value $ 685,829.25
Dec 04 Value $ 712,700.50
Dec 17 Value $ 737,898.00
Dec 31 Value $ 741,034.25
Jan 14 Value $ 776,191.75
Premier Recommended Open Positions 1-14-2000
Long 4 Feb Bellies at 8312 avg.
Long 9 June hogs at 6470 avg.
Long 4 March Silver at 535
Long 8 March Yen at 9690 Avg.
Long 4 March Coffee at 117.00 Avg.
Long 5 Aug Short 5 Nov Beans at – 9 1/2.
Material Assumptions:
Beginning Value was established at $55,000 Feb. 12 1997.
Each trade is derived from FuturesCom's Bi-Weekly Investment
Outlooks, Morning Comments, Premier Flashes, Flashes and UpDates that pertain to the same. The slippage and fees are computed at $ 50.00 per round turn trade, and charged upon exit. Prices are derived from Entry and exits of related Futures Contracts.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS., SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT , THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKET IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS..
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