BI-Weekly Investment Outlook
   January 25th 1998
 

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

Sunday, January 25, 1998
7:00 AM

                       On the Frenzied Forex Front

March J-Yen ,

Nearby support is at 7993 and 7969 below that  7938 , Traders can buy at 7954, risk 20 pts. Failure at 7969 basis the close is negative for a dip to 7864. Below that 7777 to 7763 should act as Support. If that fails traders should buy at 7718  risk a close under 7657 for two days in a row.
Resistance is near  8089 and 8119 to 8136  Beyond that 8185 to 8223 is likely. to trade . Sell Short at 8194 for a turn lower, risk a close over 8209 for three days in a row.

If the March Yen Catches fire a spurt to 8390  go short for a turn lower ,  risk a close over 8407 for two days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

March Swiss Franc Recommended Position long at 6783.
Support should appear at 6973 , below that  6923 to 6906 . Traders can Buy  Sunday Eve or Monday only, at 6923, risk 30 pts. Failure at 6923 basis the close  indicates a decline to 6873 , below that 6836 should hold,  traders should have buy orders waiting to Buy at 6836, risk  a close under 6809.
Resistance begins at 6990 to 7003 region. Beyond that a test of 7023 to 7029 is likely.
A close over 7023 augurs for a Thrust to 7074. A  close over 7088 augurs for a 'pop' to 7123 and most likely the 7143 to 7170 region where resistance  should appear. A close over 7170 indicates a pop to 7243. Sell there at 7242 for position, risk a close  over 7257 for two days in a row

March British:
Support is at 165.50, buy at 165.50, risk a close under 164.20 for three days in a row.  Resistance is near 167.20 to 167.60 and 168.90 A close over 167.20 friendly for a rally  to 168.90. Beyond that sellers should appear near 169.60. A close over 169.90 augurs for a test of 173.10 to 173.80.  Sell short at 173.10 , risk a close over 173.80 for two days in a row.

March D-Mark
Early support is at 5577. Buy at 5581, risk a close  under 5552 for three days in a row.   Below that support should appear near 5504 where day traders can buy at 5505 for a bounce, risk a trade under  5488.
Nearby Resistance is at  5653 , beyond that  a 5675 and  5716 to 5729  A close over 5716 augurs for a pop to 5792 / 5805. Traders should sell at 5834 for a quick turn lower , stay tuned for a stop.  In addition Good sellers  should appear near  5860, sell at 5860 for a position risk a close over 5912 for two days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

March Canadian Dollar  Recommended Position Long at 7002

Support is near the 6878. Below that 6836 should hold.  Traders should go long or add on a close over 6890.  A close over 6906 is friendly for a rally back to  6957.
Resistance is near  6906  and 6919 offer resistance. A close over 6919 augurs for a test of 6990 to 7004 . Beyond that 7014 offer's resistance. If a turn around does occur , Sell at 7074 risk a close over 7088 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly...

                                     Precious Metals
April Gold
Support is near 297, buy at 299. Below that 287 offers a buying region. Resistance is 305  and  308 , traders can sell at 308 , risk and go long on a close over 310. A close  over 310  augurs for a rally back to 317 to 320 Beyond that 330 is likely to be tested.

March Copper
Support is at 7940 and 7820 , traders should buy at 7865 , risk a close under 7820 for two days in a row. Below that 7610 to 7590  should stop the decline , go long March Copper at 7590  for a turn higher , risk a close under 7510.
Resistance is at  8120 and 8140. beyond that 8220 and 8330, a close over 8225 indicates a rally back to 8540  Above that traders should sell at 8850 risk a close over 8870 for three days in a row.

April Platinum
support is near 380 , buy at 380 a close under 373 for three days in a row. Below 380 support should appear  near 376 and 369. Buy at 369 for a 2- day bounce , risk  a close under 358. Resistance is  near  386 and 389 , a close over 386 augurs for a test of  394 and 397. Beyond that 407 should trade. With a possible ‘touch’ of 413 or higher  Traders should sell at 423 , risk a close over 425 for three days in a row. Beyond that 440 and 460 should trade.

Trade Accordingly
 
March Silver
Early support is at 576 and 567  Traders should Buy March Silver at 567.5 , risk a close under 544. Below 567.5, buy at 558 for a bounce, risk 10 cents.
Resistance is near 590 and 606. A close over 606 is friendly for a test of 637/ 640 then 671, sell at 671 risk a close over 677  for two days in a row.

                             The Exciting Energies

March Crude Recommended Position Long at 1656
Early support is at 1547, aggressive traders can buy at 1535 risk a close under 1529  Below that 1496 should trade and hold . Go long at 1496 for a bounce , risk 30 cents.
Resistance should appear near 1602 an extended  trade over or close over augurs for test of  1642.  A close over 1655  augurs for a 'pop' to the 1698 region then 1728.

Feb.-Unleaded Gas Recommended position  long at 5125.
Early support is near 4885 and 4845. Resistance is near 4975 and 5020.  A close over 4975 augurs for a trade to 5240.

Feb. Heating Oil Recommended Position , long at 4930 and 4650
Resistance is near 4510 and  4550 . A close over 4510 early this week is friendly and  augurs for a test of 4750. Support is near 4425 and 4382.

Stay Tuned for March Heating Oil and  Unleaded  to be covered later this week .
 

                              The ‘Grande’ Grains

March Beans: Recommended position Long at 667.
Early support is near 669.  Go long at 669 for a bounce , risk 10 cents.  Beneath 669 support should appear at 663 , however a slip under 662 basis the close  indicates a drop to 48,  traders can buy for a 'Bounce' at 648 risk a close under 638 for two days in a row. Below that 617 is where hearty traders can go long for a  turn higher, risk a close under 586 initially.
Resistance is near  and  the 677 region . A close over  677 augurs for  a test of 686.
A close over 685 is bullish for a trade to 691. Beyond 692 , 704 offers resistance ,traders can sell at 703 for a quick turn lower, risk a close over 711 1/2 for  three days in a row and stay tuned.

Trade Accordingly

March Soybean Meal
Support should appear at 192.5  Buy at 192.6  risk a close under 188 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 195.5 a close over 195.5  is friendly for a test of 201.5 , beyond that 209 offers resistance sell at 209, risk a close over 213.5 for two days in a row.

Go long March Meal using a  195.5 Buy stop to enter.

March Soybean Oil
Early support is at 2557 below that  Buy at 2557 , risk a close under 2510 for three days in a row. Beneath the 2510 region  2469 offers support as does 2436 , buy at 2461  risk a close under 2419.
Resistance is near  2612 to 2624. Above that sell at 2663 for a turn lower , risk 100 pts.

March Corn
Support is at 273 to 271 , traders should begin purchases of March corn at  273 3/4. risk a close under 271 for three days in a row. Below that 269 should hold If not a decline to 265 is likely , traders should go long at 265 and hold..
Resistance is near 281 1/2 and 284 , a close over 284 augurs for a ‘pop’ to 292 and
beyond

March Wheat
Support is at 331 3/4. Traders should Buy March Wheat at 331 3/4  and hold .
Beneath that 329 to 323 should be considered a buying region. Go long at 326, and hold.
Resistance is near 341 and  346, beyond that  353 should trade. A close over  355 1/2 indicates a thrust to 367 , traders can sell at 367  and risk a close over 375  for two days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

                               The Satisfying Softs

March Cotton  Recommended Position long at 6590

Support is at 6417  and  buy at 6417 risk 100 pts. Resistance is at 6512  and 6570 to 6605 . A close over 6605 augurs for a test of 6675 and 6705. .

A close over 6510 is friendly.

Trade accordingly.

March Sugar  Recommended Position Long at 1203 and 1169
Support  near 1116 and 1101 , below that 1096 should hold. Buy at 1101 risk a close under 1096 for three days in a row. Resistance is 1125  and 1127  A  close over 1127 augurs for a 'pop' to 1149 then 1167.

March Coffee
Early support is at 177.80 to 177.60 with  175.10  under that. Aggressive Traders should buy at 178.20.  Below 175.10 support should appear near 173.10 , under that 170.80 then 167.70 to 165.50 should hold. Traders should buy at 164.20 , risk a close under 162.50 for two days in a row. Beneath that a decline to 158.20 should be considered a buying opportunity. Buy at 157.60 , risk a close under 153.50 . Beneath that 150.50 to 148.10 offer support.
On the Upside, resistance is near 179.90 and 180.80 to 182.20 , beyond that 185.90. Above that 190.20 to 190.90 Traders should sell at 194.60 risk a close over 195.30. for two days in a row. More sellers should appear near 198.20 and 199.60

When Trading Coffee, one should keep a ‘Steel Cup’ handy.

Trade accordingly
 

March Cocoa Recommended Position Short at 1576
Early resistance is 1596, more  resistance is located at 1609 and 1615 , beyond that 1642 and 1677 Traders should sell at  1677 , risk a close over 1689 for two days in a row. The 1680 / 1696 region offers more sellers, above that 1713 is likely to trade and 1737 should cap a rally.   Support is near 1579,  Below that support should appear near 1569 and the 1542 to 1535 region, with  1517 to 1496  beneath that.  A close under 1517 augurs for a slip to 1484., below that go long at 1459 and risk a close under 1446 for two days in a row.
 
 

                        The Lively Livestock

Feb. Cattle Recommended Position, long at 6622
Support is near 6635 and the 6592 / 6577 region. Below that  6492 should hold.
Early Sellers should appear near 6707 and 6742 to 6755 with 6797 beyond that .
However a close over 6797 is bullish for a  test of the 6905 region..

April Live Cattle Recommended position long at 7170,7150,7130 and 3 at 6845
Support is 6932 and 6917 to 6905 below that 6855 . Beneath 6855 ,6777 and 6722 should hold. Resistance is near at 6990 to 7012, a close over 7005 augurs for a test of  and  7072 to 7087. . A close over 7092 augurs for a rally to 7135. Above that sellers should appear at 7142 to 7170, with 7250 beyond that.

Trade Accordingly.

Feb. Hogs
Support is near 5855 and 5790, below that 5712 should stop any decline.
Near Term Resistance is near  5945 to 5962 , above that sellers should appear near 6062 and  6165 to 6190

Recommended Spread Position, Long April Short June Hogs, 5 at 817 and 5 at 757
Hold

April Hogs
Resistance is at 5947 and 5982 , beyond that 6022 to 6035. A close over 6035 augurs for a trade to 6092 . A close over 6092 indicates a test of 6227. Traders can sell at 6227 , risk a close over 6272 for three days in a row.
Support is near  5887 and 5845 , below that buy at 5787 , risk a close under 5672 for three days in a row. Additionally traders should be prepared to buy at 5657 if given the chance. Risk 100 pts., Below that 5587 offers support.

Feb. Bellies Recommended Position Long at 5622 , 3 at 5447 , 4 at  5090,  4 at 4650
Early support is at  4987 and  4945 to 4917. Below that 4857 and 4787 offer good support. Resistance is near 5125 and 5160. Beyond that 5237 offers a selling region, however   a close over 5270 augurs for a test of  5427 where sellers should appear. However a rapid rise to that region may  cause a few buy stops to be elected , thus causing a rally to 5552.   A close over 5577 augurs for a test of 5837 and beyond.

Friendly, Buy Dips and stay tuned.
 

             The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
 

March Bonds
Near Term support  is at 119-08 and 118-31  However if  Bonds fail  there early in the week they may make an assault on the 118-08 level. Where support should appear,
however if buyers do not come to the party a decline to 117-10 is not out of the question..
Traders can Buy at 117-10 for a bounce , risk a close under 116-22 for  two days in a row. Below that 115-23 should hold. , buy at 115-23 , risk 15 pts.
Resistance is at 121-11 and 121-20 , sell at 121-21 risk a close over  122-10 .
Beyond that a trade to 123-09 is likely , sell at 123-09 and hold.
 

March SP500  Recommended Positions, short at 954.20, 958.40 and  970.50
On the Downside  ,Support is near  964.10 and 962.50  under that 957.20 to 954.90 and 954.20 offer support . a close under 954.20 augurs for a test of 952.60 should trade
under that 944.40 and 942.90 offer support , below that 938.80 , must hold basis the close. If the 938.80 region or 934.70 level fails  a decline to 931.60 will likely take place.  Beneath that 925.40 then 923.60 to 922.90 offer support. A close under 923.60 augurs for a test of  915.60 to 914.A close under 914.00  indicates a slip to 910.00 then 906.40/906.00 and 904.40. However a close under 904.40 augurs for a test 896.60 to 893.40 with 892.10 below that. Traders can Buy at 892.10 for a bounce, stay tuned for the stop. If that fails a slip to the 884.90 / 881 region is likely, Below that 877.70 then 876.20  to 874.60  offer support as does  the  868.30 / 866.80 region. Below that 860.30 then 858.90  to 856.00 should bring out a few buyers. Traders can Buy at 858.10, again stay tuned for a stop Failure there indicates  a decline to 842.90 and 840.60 / 839.10 region . Below  that 831.40/830 is likely to trade with 822.30 to 819.40 under that. Below that Buy  at 813.40. Under that buy at 804.40  and hold.
On the Upside Resistance should appear near 967.30 to 969.50 region with 970.60 / 970.90 and 973.70 above that. Which  should cap any rally. If not  982.10 to 983.70 and 986.20 all offer resistance, sell at 986.20, stay Tuned for the stop. Beyond  that 987.70 should cap a rally.

Trade Accordingly and stay tuned for new trades and analysis designed
to take advantage of moves in either direction.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average(cash)
Initially 7684  must hold basis the close if not a dip to the 7555 region is likely. Below that  7513 to 7493 with  7486  basis the close should be considered critical.  Below that  7462/ 7457 offers some support. A close under  7462 augurs for a test of 7428 and 7414  which should bring out a few buyers . If not a decline to 7342 and the 7279 region is likely.  A close under  7242  is negative for a decline to 7170 , under that 7088 and 7003 should stop the break. If not a test of 6954 is likely.

Resistance is near the  7756 / 7777  region. Beyond that  a  test of  7809 and  7840 to 7854 that  should encourage traders. A close over 7880 augurs for a test of  7920 and  7934 to 7954. Beyond that  7969 and the  8005 to 8029/ 8044 should cap a rally
 

Happy Trading

Bill

Sunday, January 25, 1998
08:18 PM

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