THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
 
 

Sunday, February 22, 1998
10:36:28 AM

March J-Yen Recommended Position Long at 7963
Nearby support is at 7822 and 7777 below that  7763, More downside support should appear at 7719 to 7716 with 7689 to 7675 beneath that.
Hearty  Traders can buy for a position at 7719. Risk  a close Under 7670 for three days in a row.  Resistance is near 7865 Beyond that 7909 to 7922  A close or extended traded over 7865 is friendly, traders should go long if that occurs.  Additional Resistance should appear at 7963 and 8019 beyond that 8122.  If a sharp rally occurs Traders can go short at 8223 for a turn
lower,  risk  50 pts basis the close.
 

March Swiss Franc Recommended Position Long at 6856
Support should appear at 6822 and 6809.  Early this week  support should appear at 6793 to 6787. A close under 6781 augurs for a test of 6755. Below that traders should  Go long for a bounce at 6741. Risk 20 pts. Resistance should begin at  6871 to 6887/6893.
 A close over 6871 augurs for a 'pop' to 6906 / 6937  beyond  6950 and 7002 are  likely to trade.  A close over 7003 augurs for a Thrust to 7074.

Traders should expect a weaker Dollar over the next two weeks

March British: Recommended Position Long at 163.40
Support is at 163.32 then 162.82 under  that 162.34.
Below that Support is near 161.50 to 160.90. Traders should buy at 161.50 for a bounce, risk a trade under  160.80. Resistance is at 163.92 and 164.20, a close over 164.20 augurs for a test of 165.50 and 167.30.   Beyond that sellers should appear near 169.60. Sell short at 169.40, risk a close over 169.96 for two days in a row.

March D-Mark
Early support is at 5492  and 5489. Below that support should appear near 5430 where day traders can buy at for a bounce, risk a trade under  5402.
Nearby Resistance is at  5505 and 5517 with 5553 beyond that.
A close over 5505 is friendly , traders should go long if that occurs.
Additional Resistance is near  5581 and 5589 early in the week. Beyond that 5597 and 5640 offer's  resistance. Traders should sell at 5640 for a quick 'day' turn lower, stay tuned.

Trade Accordingly

March Canadian Dollar
Support is near the 7038  Below that 7019 and 7002 to 6990 and 6975. Traders can buy at 6990 and risk a close under 6970 for three days in a row.
Resistance is near 7074 and 7088.  Traders should short at 7086 for a turn lower, risk a close over 7089 for three days in a row. Beyond that Resistance is near 7143
A close under 7036 is negative for a test of 6990.

Friendly, Buy Dips.

May Copper
Support is at 7455 to 7445 below that  traders can buy at 7060 for a good  bounce , risk a close under 6990 for three days in a row.  Resistance is at 7515 to 7520 , a close over 7515 is friendly for a 'pop' to 7835.  Traders should go long on a close higher that 7515.
Beyond that 7865 offer's resistance, a close over 7880 indicates a rally back to 8070, and 8300 . above that traders should sell short at 8480 risk a close over 8500 for two days in a row.

April Platinum  Recommended Position Long at 378.5 risk  a close under 373 for three days in a row.
Support is near  375.8 and  371.5.  Below that support should appear  near 370.4  and 368 Buy at 369 for a 2- day bounce , risk  only  $ 4.00 . Below that 344 should stop any
decline.  Nearby resistance is at  379.7 , a close over is friendly. Beyond that  382.5 then 390.4, a close over 391 augurs for a test of  399 to 404. If the Platinum Glitters against and Surges towards 420 traders should be prepared to sell at 420 for a quick turn,  initially   risk a close over 425 for three days in a row. Beyond that 440 and 460 should trade.

Long Term Friendly
 
March Silver
Support is at 631.5 and 625.5, aggressive traders should Buy March Silver at 627, risk a close under 617 for three days in a row. A break to 598 should be bought if it occurs.
Buy at 601 , risk 12 cents.  Below that  568 should hold.
Resistance is near 671  then 703.  A close over 7676 is friendly and augurs for a test of 696 . A close over 696 indicates a test of the 714 and  the highs near 750,  beyond that  774 then  812.
 

May Silver
Support is near 630 , Buy at 631 and Hold.  Resistance is near 657 , a close over augurs for a test of 669 and 694 .

Be Long

April Crude
Early support is at 1598  with 1581 below that, beneath that aggressive traders can buy at 1535 risk a close below 1528 for three days in a row.
Resistance should first appear near 1642 to 1655, a close over 1655 augurs for test of  1720 to 1747  A close over 1820  augurs for a 'pop' to the 1902 area.

Go long at 1623 or better , risk a close under 1609 for three days in a row.

April Unleaded Gas
Early support should appear near 5320  traders should go long at 5320 and hold. More support should appear at 5290 then 5225 and 5130. Resistance is near  5360 and 5430.
A close over 5420 is friendly for a 'pop' to  5520  where resistance remains beyond that a trade to 5730 is likely with 5890 capping any 'Non-Supply Problem' rally.

Friendly , Buy dips.
 

April Heating Oil
Support is near  4465 Traders can Buy at  4465, risk a  close below 4420 for a couple days.  More support is near 4320, Longer Term Traders can Buy at 4320, initially risk a close under 4230 for three days in a row.
Resistance near 4665, a close over augurs for a test of  4805 to 4845/ 4870
A close over 4875 is bullish for a thrust to 5120 where resistance should appear.
If not a rally to the 5340 region is likely , go short at 5340 , risk 100 pts.
 

March Beans: Recommended Position Long at 677 1/2
Support is 662 1/2 below that traders can buy for a 'Bounce' at 651 risk a close under 638 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 669 1/2  a close over  673 augurs for an eventual test of 691  where good sellers should appear, beyond that 712 offers resistance.

Unless there is a  Severe drop traders should look to Roll the long March Beans to May before Friday.

May Soybeans
Support is at 663, below that 652 to 650 offer good support. Traders should go long at 653 to Hold. Resistance is near 680 to 682. A close over 682 augurs for a thrust towards 695 and beyond.

A close early in the week over 671 is friendly, traders should go long /Add if that occurs.

May Soybean Meal
Go long May Meal on a close over 182.5.
Support is 177.9 Resistance is near 186 and 196.

May Soybean Oil
Early support is at 2687 , a close under augurs for a slip to the  2617 / 2589 region where traders should have Buy orders waiting for a bounce, buy at  2590, risk a close under 2568 for three days in a row. If that fails , a dip to 2514 is likely, buy at 2519 risk a close under 2510 for two days in a row.
Resistance is near 2758 to 2775,  Traders should sell at 2757, risk a close over 2798 for two days in a row. Beyond that 2820 to 2829, then 2874 to 2883  should cap a rally.
Go Short at 2874 and Hold

May Corn
Support is should appear near 271 to 270 Buy at 271 risk a close under 265 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 274/275 a close over 276.  augurs for a ‘pop’ to 280 / 281.

Closing over 276 augurs for trade up to 290. Traders should Go long if that occurs.
 

March Wheat Recommended Positions , long at 331 1/2 and 326
Support is at 320 and 313.  Resistance is near  328,  a close over 329  augurs for a trade to 338 and beyond..

May Wheat
Support is near 330 and 324 and 312. Resistance is near 336 and 341. Beyond that 347 and 359. Traders can Buy at 329 3/4, risk a close under 324 for two days in a row.

                               The Satisfying Softs

March Cotton Recommended Position Long at 6568
Exit today Stop Close only at 6405

May Cotton
Support is 6507 to 6483,  Resistance is 6567 , beyond that 6680 and 6825, Go short at 6825 , risk a close over 6920 for three days in a row.

A close over 6577 is friendly, traders should Go long at 6580 Stop close only.

May Sugar
Nearby support is 998  and 972 traders can go long at 972 for a quick turn higher, risk a close under 941. Resistance is near 1012 and 1042 to 1064.
Sell short near 1068, risk a close over  1097 for three days in a row
A close over 1012  is friendly. Traders should go long if that occurs.

May Coffee
On the Downside, early support is at 171.40  a trade under augurs for test of  169.60 to 168.90. Below that 166.70 and 164.20 should hold, Traders should go long at 164.50 for a 'bounce' risk 350 pts initially as more support should appear near 163.50 and 161.50/ 161.10. Closing under 160.90 augurs for a slip to 156.35 Aggressive Traders should have buy orders waiting at  156.90, initially plan a risk on a close under 153.50.
If the Coffee Cools off and trades down to 141.70 Traders should go long and  hold.
On the Upside, resistance is near 173.10  to 173.80, beyond that 176.45 should trade.
A close  over 176.45 augurs for a rally to 181.20  with a likely test of  182.20 where resistance remains. Above that  190.20 to 190.90 should cap a rally for a bit.
If the Coffee Boils over and trades to 212.60 Traders should sell and  risk a close over 213.40. for two days in a row

Still Friendly..

Pick Your Poison and Keep a Steel 'Cup’ handy.
 
May Cocoa Recommended Position Long at  1554
Resistance is 1556, a close over 1569 augurs for a rally to 1584 /1588.
Beyond that  a trade to 1642 /1655  should occur.
Support is near 1538 and 1535 to 1529.  Below that support should appear near  1522 then 1496 to 1483.  A close under 1483 augurs for a  slip to  1459 to 1453, buy at 1452  risk a close under 1436 for two days in a row.
 

                        The Lively Livestock

April Live Cattle
Support is 6347. Traders can Buy at 6347 for a bounce, risk 100 pts.  Resistance is near at 6512 and 6542. A close over 6542 is friendly for a short covering rally to 6627.
Traders should go long if a close over 6545 occurs.
Beyond 6627 resistance should  appear at 6717 and 6797, beyond that 6957 should trade.

April Hogs
Good Resistance is at 5267 and 5387, beyond that 5450 and  5685
Support is near 5205  and 5127.

Traders should Go long at 5212 and hold.

Recommended Spread Position long April Short June at 820 under.
Traders should Add to the Position on Mondays Open.

March Bellies Recommended Position Long at 4612
Hold

May Bellies
Support is near 4317 to 4305. Below that 4275 and 4002 offers good support. Traders should buy at 4002 for the Pull  Resistance is near 4422 and 4487 to 4512, a close over 4427 is friendly for a rally to  4557 to 4575. A close over 4582 augurs for a test of 5012.
Traders should Buy May Bellies at 4437 Stop.

'From the Frying Pan into the Fire'

             The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
 

March  30 Yr. Bonds
Near Term support is at 121-14 to 121-10, below that 120-27 and 120-09. A close under 120-09  augurs for a slip to the 120-00 region, below that traders should buy at 119-07, risk a close under 119-02 for three days in a row. Below that 118-04 should hold, but probably will not, so traders can go long at 117-17 risk a  close under 116-20 for  two days in a row.
Resistance is at 121-28  and 122-09 traders should sell at 122-07 risk a close over  122-28 for two days in a row. Beyond that a trade to 123-29 is likely, sell at 123-29 and hold.
 

March SP500  Recommended positions Short at 1023 and 1035.80
On the Downside, Support is near  1032 and 1031.50, below that 1028.80/ 1028.60 is critical and should hold basis the close. As should 1024.80, a close under 1024.80 augurs for a slip  to the  1013.60/ 1013.10 region with  1012.00 and 1010.4  under that.
A slip under 1008.90 augurs for a trade to 1004.30 and the 1003.70/ 1003.40 region  with 1002.10 below that.  Failure of 1004.20 basis the close indicates a  decline to 991.80
On the Upside, Resistance is at 1038.40 1043.90 to 1047. Beyond that 1057 to 1058
offers, traders can sell at 1058, risk 600 pts. Beyond that 1068 is  likely.

* A close under 1028.70 is negative, if this occurs traders who have 'Ice Water Running through their Veins'  should Go Short.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Initial support is 8406 and 8391 with  8362 critical basis the close. Beneath  that 8264 to 8223 should contain an early break this week, however if the Dow fails at 8223 basis the close a  slip to 81143 to 8119 is likely. Resistance is near  8445. Beyond that  8466 and 8884 to 8499 offers resistance as does 8532 which should cap the current rally
Beyond that  sellers should appear near 8560 to 8589

This Newsletter is Dedicated to Risk, Without Risk there is no Reward.

Happy Trading

Bill

Sunday, February 22, 1998
4:49 PM

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