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Bi-Weekly
Investment Outlook II
April 4th 1998
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
"If a man is both wise and lucky , he will not make the same mistake twice. But he will make any one of the ten thousand brothers or cousins of the original. The mistake family is so large that there is always one of them around"
--Remenisciences of a Stock operator--
Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook II
Saturday, April 4th, 1998
12:55 PM
On the Frenzied Forex Front
June J-Yen Recommended Position: Long at 7601
The June Yen should find support at 7428 then 7414 to 7409 .Additional downside support should appear at 7292 Traders can buy for a position at 7292. Risk a close Under 7242 for three days in a row. Resistance should appear early at 7514 and 7675 where short term traders can sell at 7675 for a quick turn lower and risk a close over 7690
Beyond that 7763 to 7777 offers' resistance, sell at 7763 , risk a close over 7790 for three days in a row.
In the Near Term a close over 7515 is friendly for a rally to 7675, traders should go long if a close over 7514 occurs.
June Swiss
Support should appear at 6591 and 6577 below that support should appear at 6579 to 6567. Traders should Go long for a bounce at 6582. Risk a close under 6565 for three days In a row. Below that a slip to 6532 is likely , buy at 6532 risk a close under 6509.
Resistance should first begin at 6617 and 6659 to 6673. Above that Traders can Sell at 6713 risk a close over 6755 A close over 6755 augurs for a 'pop' to 6809 to 6836 Traders should go long if a close over 6755 occurs. Beyond that resistance is near 6871 and the 6906 to 6919 region. Traders should Sell short at 6906 , and risk a close over 6919 for three days in a row.
June British Pound:
Support is at 164.20 and 163.46. Traders can go long at 163.20 , risk a close under 162.40 for two days in a row. Below that 161.50 offers support. Resistance is at 165.50 and 167.20 Traders should sell short at 166.20 , risk a close over 167.30 for two days in a row.
June D-Mark Recommended Position Long at 5475, 5522 and 5430.
Early support is at 5418 and the 5356 to 5344 region. Resistance is at 5466 to 5505
A close over 5492 is friendly and augurs for a thrust towards 5553 to 5577 , traders should go long if a close over 5492 occurs. Additional Resistance is near 5506 and 5553. Beyond that 5597 and 5615 offer resistance. Traders should sell at 5615 for a quick 'day' turn lower, stay tuned.
Trade Accordingly
June Canadian Dollar
Support is near the 7036 region and 7003 to 6990 where traders should buy at 7003 , risk a close under 6980 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 7090 to 7097. Traders can short at 7090 for a turn lower, risk a close over 7143 for two days in a row.
Precious Metals
June Gold Recommended Position long at 301.90
Good Support is near 308.50, buy there for a day trade, risk $ 4.00. Below that 308.50 support at 305.70 should hold. Below that traders can buy at 300.10 risk a close under 297 for three days in a row. Resistance is 316.20 and 320 to 325, a close over 312.20 is friendly for a rally to that region..
*Traders should go long or add to longs at the Open on Sunday Eve using a 312.50
stop, eventually a test of 337 to 342 is not out of the question... If it holds
Friendly, Buy Dips.
May Copper:
Early Support is at 7530 below that 7460 and 7415 offer support. Traders should buy at 7430 , risk a close under 7340 for two days in a row. Under that 7000 is likely to trade.
Resistance is at 7660 to 7690, a close over 7640 is friendly for a 'pop' towards the 7750 to 7850 region and beyond near resistance at 8070 to 8140 , sell at 8115 for a turn lower, risk a close over 8145 for three days in a row.
*Traders should go long on a close over 7640
July Platinum
Hearty Traders should go long on the open or on a dip near 410 , risk a close under 400 for three days in a row. Additional support is near $ 394.9 Below that 392m, buy at 392 , risk a close under 380 for two days in a row. Resistance is at 420.5 and 422.. A close over 423 augurs for a test of 427 and 439 to 440. ...
If Platinum can Glitter again, FuturesComs Initial 'Upside' target is 467
Long Term Friendly
May Silver
On the Downside: Support is at 648.5 and 632, traders should go long on a dip near 646, Below that 616 to 610 offers support . Go long at 611 for a bounce and stay tuned.
On the Upside resistance is at 661, a close over 662 augurs for a test of 682 to 690, a close over 692 augurs for a test of 727, stay tuned.
Traders should assume a long position if a close over 662 occurs..
Be Long
The Exciting Energies
May Crude
Early support is at 1597 and 1589. Aggressive traders can buy at 1594 , risk 30 cents.
Beneath that a trade down to 1546 where more support should surface is likely. Under that 1487 offers' support , traders can buy at 1487 , risk a close under 1453.
Resistance is at 1639 and 1677 to 1696. Beyond that 1750 and 1796 offers' resistance. Sell short at 1808 or a turn lower , risk a trade over 1837.
Friendly near term.
April Unleaded Gas
Support should begin near 5010 failure there augurs for a slip towards 4805 where traders can buy for a bounce , risk a 100 pts. Resistance is near 5205, a close over augurs for a test of 5320 . Traders should sell short at 5320, initially risk a close over 5415 for three days in a row.
May Heating Oil
Support is near 4320 and 4250 to 4215. Below that 4070 should hold. Traders can Buy at 4215 , risk a close under 4070 for two days in a row. Resistance near 4415 to 4430. Beyond that 4620 offers' resistance . Traders can go short at 4620 , risk a close over 4650 for two days in a row.
The Grande Grains
Soybeans May Recommended Position long at 661
Support is at 633 and 631. Under that 617 and 610 offers' support.
Early resistance this week is 641 3/4 to 645. Beyond that 659 to 665 offers' resistance.
A close over 638 is friendly a firm close over 642 augurs for a test of 659.
July Soybeans Recommended Position long 2 at 663
Support is at 637 and 636. Under that 630 and 622 offer support as does 608.
Early resistance this week is 643 1/4 to 644. Beyond that 650 to 657 offer resistance.
A close over 644 is friendly.
Long Term Friendly
May Soybean Meal Recommended Position long at 168.80 and 163.90
Support is 163.20 and 159.40 under that 155.60 should contain the break.
Resistance is near 164.60 and 165.10 . Beyond that 167.20 and 171 offer resistance.
A close over 165.10 is friendly.
May Soybean Oil Recommended Position long at 2672.
Early support is at 2620 to 2612 and 2589. Traders should buy at 2589 for a turn higher. If that fails , a dip to 2542 is likely. Resistance is near 2664 and 2689 to 2702. Beyond that 2727 offers' resistance.
A close over 2664 is friendly
May Corn Recommended Position Long at 271,276 3/4, 279 3/4 and 275 and 262 1/2
Support is should appear near 251 to 249. Under that 245 and 241 offer support.
Resistance is near 255 3/4 and 260, Beyond that sellers will appear near 263 and 272.
May Wheat Recommended Positions , long at 338 3/4
Support is at 308 and 299. Resistance is near 315 1/2 and 318 to 323
July Wheat Recommended Position Long at 342
Resistance begins near 324 1/2 beyond that 340 1/2 offers resistance.
Support should surface at 317 1/4 and 314.
The Satisfying Softs
May Cotton Recommended Position long at 6675
Support is 6509 and 6490 under that 6440 top 6417 offer support. Resistance is 6610 and 6735 , beyond that 6935 offers resistance. Above that traders can go short at 7110 for a turn lower. Risk a close over 7220 for two days in a row.
May Sugar
Support is 984 and 971 to 965. Traders can go long at 965 for a quick turn higher, risk a close under 931 Below that 907 to 912 offer support. Resistance is near 1005 and 1028. Beyond that Sell short at 1032, risk a close over 1037 for three days in a row. Beyond that 1058 to 1068 offer resistance.
May Coffee Recommended Position long at 153.30 and 147.50 and 143.20
On the Downside, Early support is at 139.90 to 138.30 , below that 137.30 offers support. Below that 134.60 and 133.40 offer support.
On the Upside, Resistance is 140.80 and 141.50 to 142.10, a close over 141.50 augurs for a test of 149.60.
Pick Your Poison and Keep a Steel 'Cup handy.
May Cocoa Recommended Position Long at 1683 and 1655
Resistance is 1651 and 1655, a close over 1655 augurs for a test of 1701 to 1710. Support is near 1636 and 1613. Below that support should appear near 1609 to 1605 where hearty traders might be tempted to probe the long side ..Buy at 1609 risk a close under 1605 for two days in a row.
Traders should go long on a close over 1655.
The Lively Livestock
June Cattle Recommended Position Long at 6657
Support is near 6732 and 6717. Traders should buy with both hands at 6732 , risk a trade under 6657. Below that 6557 should hold.. Resistance is at 6797 , a close over 6812 augurs for a 'pop' to 6867, beyond that 6972 and 7100 offer resistance.
Long Term Friendly
June Hogs Recommended Position long at 5832
Support is at 5840 and 5812 , traders should buy at 5855 for a turn higher. risk a close under 5712 as buyer should appear at 5740 and 5727. Resistance is near 5925 to 5940.
A close over 5940 augurs for a pop to 6082 with a likely target of 6150 to 6200.
Traders should buy at 5962 stop.
Trade Accordingly
October Hogs Recommended Position Long at 5320 HOLD
Resistance is near 5387, a close over augurs for a test of 5420, a close over 5427 augurs for a test of 5515. Support is at 5310 and 5272 below that 5225 offers support.
May Pork Bellies
On the DownSide Early support is near 5212 and 5200 , below that 5142 and 5115 offer support. Traders should buy at 5162 for a good bounce, stay tuned .. below that 5142 and 5115 offer support. Under that Traders can buy at 4977. Risk a close under 4912 for two days in a row. additional buyers should appear near 4667.
On the Upside Resistance is near 5282, an extended trade or close over augurs for a test of 5342 to 5372 beyond that 5407 offers resistance.
a close over 5407 augurs for a thrust towards 5577.. . If the Bacon gets going a trade to 5577 and 5800 is not out of the question.
Traders should buy at 5287 stop. Trade Accordingly and stay tuned
'From the Frying Pan into the Fire'
Adhere and Prosper
The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
June 30 Yr. Bonds
Early Support is 122-12, however a clsoe under is negative for a pull back towards 121-23 and 121-19, below that support should appear near the 120-24 to 120-19 region. A close under 120-19 is negatrive fore a decline towards 119-18 and 118-25 then 117-24.
Traders can buy at 117-24 for a bounce , risk a close under 117-07.
Resistance is at 122-19 , sell there forn a turm lower, risk a close over 123-05.
More resistance should appear near 123-19 and 123-23 , sell at 123-19 for a position and hold.
A close under 122-12 is negative, traders should go short if that occurs.
June SP500 Recommended Position Short at 1117.50 , 112.70 and 1130.
On the Downside, Early Support is at 1133 and 1130 to 1128.10. Below that 118.90 and 1115.50 offer support . A close under 1128.10 inidcates a slip to 1118.80 , a close under 1118.80 is negative for a pull back towards the 1103 region. A close under 1103 indicates a slip towards 1101 and 1096 to 1092.60 Below that 1087.20 and 1086 offer support.
On the Upside, Resistance is at 1135 and 1136.90. Beyond that resistance should appear near 1139.10 Beyond that 1150 is likely to trade.
* A close under 1128.10 is negative, if this occurs traders who have 'Ice Water Running through their Veins'. should Go Short.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Initial support is 8965 below that 8941 to 8934. A close under 8964 augurs for a test of 8871 to 8856. Below that 8777 and 8762. Beneath that 8676 must hold basis the close or a slip to 8597 to 8589 may occur.
Resistance is at 9025 to 9044 and 9060 Beyond that sellers should appear near 9044 to 9060 and 9140 to 9156 beyond that 9236 may Cap the Rally for a bit
Happy Trading
Bill
Saturday, April 04, 1998
10:33:02 PM
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