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Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook
October 18th 1997


THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

Saturday Oct 18 1997
8:30 AM NYC time

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Dec-Yen

Nearby support is at 8352 to 8341, buy at 8352 for a good turn higher , risk a close under 8314 for three days in a row. Below that 8300 offer support buy at 8300 for a bounce , risk 40 pts. Below that 8229 offers support where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good turn higher , risk 50 pts.

Resistance next week is near 8391 to 8410, above that 8441 offers resistance. A close over 8391 augurs for a test of 8441 ..Beyond that 8484 and 8489 should trade and offer resistance if the Yen soars a trade to 856o is likely sell at 8562 for a turn lower , risk a close over 8589 for three days in a row..Beyond that 8668 to 8683 offers good resistance.Traders should sell at 8668 , risk a close over 8683 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly..

Friendly to the Yen over longer term...

Dec Swiss Franc Recommended position long 2 at 6887 avg

Early support should appear at 6823 below that 6809 and 6781 to 6774, traders should have buy orders at 6775 to go long for a good turn higher , risk a close under 6755 where additional support should appear. Below that 6728 offer support.

Early Resistance is at 6831 to 6836. Beyond that a trade to 6874 to 6906 is likely above that 6926 offer resistance beyond that 6954 to 6963 should trade, a close over 6954 augurs for a pop to 7038 sell at 7038, risk a close over 7074 for three days in a row. Beyond that a test of 7102 is likely, sell at 7102 , risk a close over 7145 for three days in a row...Beyond that a test of 7208 is likely sell at 7208 for a turn and stay tuned....

A close over 6831 is friendly ...over 6880 is Bullish.

Trade Accordingly..

Dec. British:
Support is at 160.88 , buy there for a turn higher , risk a close under 160.72 for two days in a row.More Support is at 159.60 , buy there ,risk a trade under 159.20 Resistance is near 161.50 and 161.70 . A close beyond 161.70 or 162 augurs for a test of 163.60 Go long on a lcos eover 160.90 beyond that raders should sell at 164.20 for a turn lower risk a close over 165.50 for three days in a row.

Trade accordingly..

Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position Long at 5684
Support is near 5653 and 5640 More Support should also appear near 5619 , where traders can buy for a good bounce , risk a close under 5608 .Below that 5569 and 5553 should trade. Buy at 5553 for a bounce , risk 30 pts.
Nearby Resistance is at 5669 then 5681 , beyond that 5709 to 5717 offer resistance, a close over 5669 is friendly. A close over 5717 augurs for a trade to 5775 then 5875 , sell at 5875 , risk a close over 5880 for two days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

Dec Canadian Dollar

Support should appear near 7198 then 7175 , buy at 7171 , risk a close under 7142 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 7242 to 7256, beyond that 7275 and 7328 to 7342 offers resistance. Sell at 7342 risk 20 pts Beyond that a trade is 7385 to 7414 is likely , sell at 7414 , risk a close over 7428 for three days in a row.

Precious Metals

December Gold Recommended Position Long at 334.4
Nearby support is at 324.6 then 321.3 below that 318.60 and 312 offer support. Resistance is near 328.6 , a close over augurs for a trade to 332 then 338. A drop to 322 should be considered a buying oppurtunity... A close over 328 is friendly eventually a rally to 350 + is likely ....At these prices Gold should considered a store of Value ...

Buy dips..and hold.

Be Long ...Conservative Traders Should Buy April 360 Calls to maintain exposure on the long Side.

Dec Copper
Nearby support is at 9540, buy at 9540 below that Buy at 9450 for a turn higher risk a close under 9375 for three days in a row. Below that a trade to 9140 is likely...where value should take hold..

Resistance is at 9625 to 9640, howerver an open over or extended trade over 9670 is friendly for a rally to 10110 where resistance remains. traders can sell at 10110for a turn lower , risk close over 101.40 ,Beyond that 103.25 is likley...

Buy Dips

Trade Accordingly

January Platinum
Nearby support appear near 418 and 414 , where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good turn higher, risk a close under 411 for three days in a row...

Resistance is near 423 and 429, a close over 433 augurs for a 'pop' to 445 then 452...and beyond.
Buy dips and Trade Accordingly.

December Silver
Early support is 490 Traders should buy at 495 ....Below that support should appear near 480 with more at 465, buy at 472 ,risk a close under 464 for three days in a row. , below that 451 should hold....Resistance is near 507 a close over indicates a trade to 520 then 527...Beyond that a test of 577 is not out of the question...

Trade Accordingly

The Exciting Energies

Dec Crude Recommended Position Long at 2238
Early support is at 2059, buy there for a bounce only , risk a trade under 2028,Below that 1999 should considered buying regions ,buy at 1999 , risk a close under 1953 for two days in a row.

Resistance should appear near 2080 , then 2105 beyond that a trade to 2144 then 2200 is likely

A close over 2135 is friendly...

Dec Unleaded Recommended Position long at 6240

Early support is near 5790 , buy there for a bounce only , risk a trade under 5720, below that 5680 offers support , traders should consider buying near 5680 if able...risk a close under 5640

Resistance is near 5920 to 5945 a close over 5960 augurs for a trade to 5980 beyond that 6020 then 6115..Stay tuned

Dec Heating Oil.
Support should appear near 5805, buy at 5805 for a bounce risk a close under 5750. Below that 5670 offers support , buy at 5655 , risk a close under 5620.Resistance is near 5825 , beyond that 5880 to 5930 then5980 should trade , with a target above at 6060.


The ‘Grande’ Grains

November Beans
Early Resistance is near 694 then 697 and 699. sell at 694 , risk a close over 701..a close above 700 1/2 indicates a thrust to 711
Support is at 685 and 683 below that 669 1/2 offer support buy at 669 3/4, for a bounce risk a trade under 664 More support should appear near 654 then 642, buy at 644, risk a close under 636 for three das in a row...

Dec Soybean Meal Recommended Position short at 218
Good support should appear at 218 more support should appear near 212 Resistance is near 223 and 230

Dec Soybean Oil
Early support is at 2468 below that 2446 to 2432 offers support .. Traders can Buy at 2446 , risk a close under 2432 where support should appear.. a close under 2432 augurs for a slip to 2405. Traders should Buy Dec Bean Oil at 2414 for a bounce , risk a close under 2405 for two days in a row.

Resistance is near 2498 and 2511 to 2524,sell at 2498 , risk a cose over 2524 for two days in a row. Above that 2546 offers some resistance , as does 2552 Sell at 2552 risk a close over 2569 for three days in a row.

Dec Corn Recommended Position Short at 269 1/4 and 280
Early support is at 279 3/4 and 277 below that 272 then 268 Buy Dec corn at 268 , risk a close under 261 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 284 and 287 to 289 sell at 289 1/4 Risk a close over 291 for three days in a row.

December Wheat
Nearby Support is at 360, buy at 354 3/4 risk a close under 344 for three days in a row

Resistance is near 372, sell at 372 , risk a close over 380 for two days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

The Satisfying Softs

Dec Cotton
Resistance is near 7215 and 7315, sell at 7340 , risk a close over 7430 for three days in a row...
Support is at 7110, Buy 7090 risk a close under 6990 for two days in a row..

March Sugar Recommended Position Long at 1171
Resistance is near 1187 and 1195 to 1205.. sell at 1203 , risk a close over 1206 for three days in a row. Support is near 1165 then 1153.. More Support is near 1148 , buy at 1146 risk a close under 1120 for two days in a row. .

December Coffee
Early support is near 150.10 to 149.10, buy at 149.10 for a bounce , risk a trade under 148.20 and reverse, as a close under 149.00 augurs for a slip to 143.90 then 139.90 where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good turn higher , risk a close under 133.30 for two days in a row.....

Resistance is near 152.60 and 154.10 to 154.80 ..Agreesisve traders can sell Dec Coffee at 154.00, risk a 200 pts...more resistanc is near 158.50 and 160.40 with 164.90 above that..sell at 164.90, risk a close over 165.50 for two days in a row....

A close over 152.60 is near term friendly stay tuned

Coffee Trading is Not for widows and orphans ....Have your' Steel Cup' Ready.


December Cocoa
Support is near 1628 ,where traders should buy for a turn, risk a close under 1617 for two days in a row. More support is at 1615 to 1609 and 1586, buy at 1577 , risk 30 pts.

Resistance is near 1694, a close over or extended rally above 1696 indicates a rally to 1744 then 1760 , sell at 1760 , risk a close over and 1782 for two days in a row.

The Lively Livestock

December Live Cattle Recommended Position long at 6865 ,6920
Long Dec Short June at -165.
Support should appear at 6587 and the 6557 t region. Resistance is near 6707 and 6737. A close over 6707 is friendly , a close over 6742 for more than a day or two is Bullish for a pop to 6857 ...

Be long...

December Hogs Recommended Position Long at 6350
Early support is near 6080 and 6047..Below that 6012 should be considered a buying region ..Traders should Buy Dec hogs,6012 risk a close under 5945... Resistance is 6145 a close over augurs for a trade to 6190 then 6245 and 6307 then 6392. ....If per-chance the Hogs roll uprward to 6617Go short for a turn lower , risk a close over 6742 for three days in a row...

Friendly ....for a rally back to 6500...

Feb Bellies
Early Support is at 6015.. Buy an early break at 6037 risk a close under 5847 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 6320, beyond that 6477 offers resistance , sell at 6482 Risk a close over 6507 for three days in a row...Beyond that 6682 is likely then 6802 ..sell at 6802 for a position...

Trade Accordingly .

U.S. 30 Year Bond Futures.

Dec Bonds
Early support next week is at 114-11 to 114-09, Buy Dec Bonds at 114-09 for a bounce only ,risk 10 pts. A close under 114-08 indicates a slip towards 113-25 to 113-21 then 113-14 ansd 113-06 where traders can go long for a turn higher , risk a close under 112-28 for two days in a row. Resistance is at 114-30 , sell there for quick turn lower , risk 5 pts. beyond that 115-09 offers resistance .. failure to move over 115-09 is negative ..Beyond that 115-25 offers good resistance .. sell at 115-25 risk a close over 116-11 for two days in a row...

A close early in the week over 114-30 is friendly.....under 114-09 is negative...

Pick Your Poison ....and fasten the seatbelts...

Standard and Poor's SP 500 Index Futures
&
The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Dec SP500 Recommended position short at 968.40
On the Downside, Early and critical support is 948.55 then 946.90 below that a slip to 944.50 is likely .. a trade under 943.70 augurs for a test of 942.90, Below that 938.80 /936.75 and 934.70 is likley .. below that 933.15 and 931.60 to 929.60 should hold ..However Failure at 929,.60 indicates a decline to 925.50 Failure to hold 925.50 basis the close is negative and should yield a decline towards the 923.60 region with 915.60 ..under that 914.80 should hold ..but probable won't, Because, If the Sharp selloff continues (for what ever reason) 910.05 is the downside target....below that 906 to 904.40 is likely..under that 900.40 to 899.90 should stop the break for a bit...Buy at 899.90 risk a trade under 896.40 ..Below that 894.90 and 893.40 to 893.10 should hold ..if not it should look real bad so ...Buy at 890.25 to hold .....

Resistance should appear near 952.60 then 953.40 and 954.20 beyond that 957.60 ( stay tuned for a possible sell at this level) Beyond that 960.55 offers a selling region .. sell at 960.55 risk a close over 964.20. Above that 967.35 offers selling as does 970.60 and 971.90 to 972.15 nd 973.70...beyond that a trade to 978.50 is likely , beyond that 982.10 to 983.70 offer resistance ..a close over 986.10 indicates an assult at 988 which should cap a rally ...if nor 992.10 ..993.70 and 994.40 offer selling regions...

Still negative .. a test of Fridays Lows is likley and 910.05 is now more likley than not...However I am not averse to lifting the shorts for a bit .. then selling a rally .. stay tuned...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Early Support is 7810 and 7796 below that 7777 then 7763 and 7755 and 7734 offer support below that 7671 then 7631 offer support... below that 7595 to 7587 should hold basis the close ..if not a decline to 7500 and 7350 is likley...Resistance is near 7864 to 7881 beyond that 7901 should trade .. above that 7939 to 7954 offers resistance beyond that 7987 and 8008 offer a selling region...beyond that 8029 and 8044 should cap a rally

Happy Trading and Remember -When in doubt Get out-

Bill


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