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Forex ...Precious Metals ...Energies....Grains...Softs...Livestock...Bonds..SP500 "Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable -ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking -chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk"
--Reminiscences of a Stock Operator--
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
FuturesCom
Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook and Performance
Sunday, June 15, 1997 09:00 AM
"Courage in a speculator is merely confidence to act on the decision of his mind'.
On the Frenzied Forex Front
Sept J-Yen Position Short at 8855 and 9025 use a stop close only over 9067 for two days in a row. Exit at 8683 MIT if able...
Selling pressure will be seen near 8869 above that we would sell JYU near 8964 for a quick turn lower. We recommend Medium Term sellers initiate their positions at 9042 use a stop close over 9067 for two days in a row. We see good support neasr 8769 then at 8754 , below that a slip to 8660 is expected where we would cover any short positions. Buyers can go long near 8484 for a bounce , risk a close under 8406 for two days.
Trade Accordingly.
Sept Swiss Franc
Early resistance is near 7022 then 7072 to 7089 where short term traders can short the Swiss and risk only 40 pts basis the close . A close over 7122 augurs for a thrust towards 7170 where selling pressure should appear begining at 7143 then 7170 where would sell for a turn lower towards the trend down, risk a close over 7242 for two days in a row Support remains near 6989 below that 6972 should trade . A close under 6972 augurs for a slip to 6922 with a possible attack of the conrtract low set in March at 6835...A failure to hold 6919 basis the close would indicate this.
Sept British:
Position: Long at 163.10 exit at 164.90 MIT if able . We see Support near 162.62 then near 161.90. Resistance is near 164.20 above that we would exit longs at 164.90. We would go short for a turn near 166.20 , risk a close over 166.20 for two days.
Sept D-Mark
Resistance next week should raise its head near 5801 then near 5855 where short term traders can sell for a turn, risk a close over 5867 for three days in a row. Support is near 5757 then near 5716 and 5653 . eventually we see a drop to 5577.
Trade accordingly..
Precious Metals
August Gold Position Long at 347.50 , use a stop close under 342 for three days in a row..We are Bulls over the long Term, however we see no need to watch something drift against us. A trader can always get back in when he feels the time is right....We do advocate buying Calls during period of weakness that strategy maintains a long posture. Resistance is near 345.40 then 349.30. Above that 352 should trade. Support is near 342 then at 332 where long term traders should have buy orders waiting to assume longs for the pull....
Stay tuned
July Copper... Long at 118.45 ... We have been friendly Copper for quite a while and remain that way. Our near term target was 120 beyond that we forcast a spurt to 123.20 then 124.60...The high last week was 123.60. In the Near term we see Support near 119.45 then 116.90.Resistance is near 123.20 then 123.80. a close over 123.80 augurs for a pop into the 126..80 region where we would exit longs.
Still Friendly...
July Platinum Support should appear near 422.8 then 418, below that a slip towards 412 / 408 is likely We would go long near 408 for a turn higher , risk a close under 404 for two days in a row Resistance is near 429 to 432 a close over indicates a rally to 440 then 451.
Still friendly...
July Silver: Position: long 1 @ 477 and 1 @ 472 Support should appear near 456, where we would have buy orders waiting, risk a close under 444 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 486 with more at 493 to 498 ....
Still friendly ...
The Exciting Energies
August Crude Oil.
Support should appear near 1872 where day traders can buy for a bounce, use a stop under 1855. Below that 1822 is likely to trade. Long term traders should have Buy orders at 1780. Risk a close under 1774 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 1915 then 1938 above that we would sell short at 1962 l for a turn and risk a close over 1997.
A close over 1915 is friendly.
August Unleaded
Support is near 5575 where we would buy for bounce and hold using a stop close under 5525 for three days in a row.Resistance is near 5725 then 5760, where we would sell for a turn abnd risk a close over 5865 for two days in a row.
August Heating Oil.
We see Support near 5067 where agressive traders can buy for a turn higher and risk a close under 4945 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 5395 and 5405 where we would sell for a turn and risk a close over 5430 for three days in a row.
The ‘Grande’ Grains
July Beans Position Long 838 1/2 , 877 1/2, 833 . HOLD. Exit at 2/3 at 885 3/4 Support is near 848 then 835 Resistance is early near 863 1/2 a close over augurs for a thrust to 876 then 887 A close over 877 indicates to us a test of 906 to 911 is likely beyond that 935 offers a selling region
August Beans Position long 817 and 788 HOLD.
Support is near 781 then 774. Below that 767 should hold. Resistance is near 795 then 802 beyond that a test of 811 is likely.
A close over 810 augurs for a pop to 835 .....
July Bean-Meal Position Long 279.20 , 288, 279.50
Support is near 280 then 277 below that 272.5 to 271 offers support... Resistance is near 288 then 291 a close over augurs for 303.then 311
Trade accordingly Stay Tuned for Updates to Exit on strength.
July Bean Oil Support is near 2267 where we would buy for a turn and use a stop close under 2218 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 2367 then 2422 where bears can sell short for a turn lower , risk 50 pts.
Corn:
July Corn
Support is near 270 1/2 then 265 3/4. Resistance is near 275 3/4 A close over 274 augurs for a test of 280 3/4. Beyond 280 a test of 285 likely where we would sell for a turn , risk 5 cents.
Dec Corn Long at 253 1/2 Hold using a stop close under 247 for three days in a row...
July Wheat Position Long at 385 and 366 Reistance is near 354 1/2 then 359 . A close over 354 in WN is friendly to us ,however July wheat needs a close over 360 to turn the charts friendly. Support is near 348 3/4 below that 342 should hold.
July Oats. Support is near 163.. Resistance is near 168 A close over 168 augurs for a test of 176 A close under 165 augurs for a test of 161 where we would have buy orders waiting, risk a close under 155.
The Softs
October Cotton Support is near 7370 where long term traders can buy for a position, use a stop under 7320 basis the close for three days. Resistance should appear near 7615 where we would sell short for a turn lower , risk a close over 7725 for two days in a row.
July Sugar: Position- Short at 1156 risk a close over 1170 for two days.
We see Support for July Sugar near 1140 then 1120 , below that 1107 should trade. Resistance is near the 1156 then 1164 to 1169.
Sept Coffee Resistance is near 186.45 then 190.75 beyond that we would sell short for a quick turn near 192.40, risk a trade over 195.75.. More resistance shopuld appear near 198.00 then 206.25 and 212.. Support is near 174.75 and 159 .50 where we would buy for the pull , risk a close under 152.50 for two days.
Sept Cocoa Nearby support is near the 1622 region, below that 1607 then 1557 where we would buy for a position. Risk a close under 1535 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 1657 then 1707 where we would sell for a position , risk a close over 1739 for tweo days in a row.
Trade Accordingly..
July Orange Juice Position Long at 7590 Support should appear near 7535 then 7390 Resistance is near 7745 then 8035 where we would sell to exit
A close over 7655 is friendly...
The Lively Livestock Sector
August Cattle Position Long at 6412 and 6382. Risk a close under 6325 for three days in a row. Support is near 6367 then 6337 . Resisitance is near 6442 then 6487, beyond that a test of 6517 is likely.
August Feeder Cattle Support is near 7755 where we would have buy orders waiting to go long , risk a close under 7737. More support is near 7687 then 7660 . Resistance is near7855then 7952.A close over 7955 augurs for a test of 8067.
July Hogs Resistance is near 8277 then 8317 where we would sell for a turn lower, use a stop close over 8487 for three days in a row. Support is near 7942 then 7847 where we would buy for a good bounce, risk a close under 7777.
July Bellies Position Short at 9010.. Resistance is near 7757 then 7797, more Reistance is near 7980 where 'traders who have Ice Water in their veins" can short , risk a two day close over 8227. Support is near 7660 then 7607 then below that expect a decline to 7427.
Stay tuned...
Bonds Sept Bonds Short at 110-18 and 111-26 , risk a three day close over 112-15
Resistance is near 111-2 then 112-08 Beyond that long term traders and hedgers can sell Sept Bonds at 112-28, risk a close over 113-05 for three days in a row. Above that 113-23 sholud trade. Support is 111-23 then 111-14. Good buyers should appear near 111-00 and 110-28. A close under 111-20 early during the next week augurs for a pullback to 110-28, below that a test of 110-12 is likely then 109-28. Cover shorts and go long for a for a good 2 day bounce , risk a close under 109-12.
SP 500
Sept SP500 On the Downside, we see support at 898.80 then 896.60 to 893.60. Below that we would buy 885.25 for a turn higher, risk 125 pts. Any trade under 884.00 augurs for a pullback to 877.70 where we would probe the long side use a 250 pt stop. Below that 868.80 is likely.
* High Risk traders , go short on a close under 898.75 but over 893.40.*
On the Upside, Resistance is near 906.10 where we would sell for a quick turn , risk a trade over 908.45. Beyond that 909.90 should trade above that we see spurt to 914 to 915.60 . If that does not stop the rally then 921.65 should trade , we would sell 923..60 for a turn ,risk 150 pts.
Big 'Mo' favors the long side of the mkt. , however we prefer to treat the SP500 as a' trading affair' rather than being bullish or bearish. With the Volitility present at this time one does not have to take positions , just be on the right side for a bit and run ...
"When in Doubt Stay Out"
Happy Trading
Bill
Bi-weekly Investment Outlook
Performance
2-09-1997 thru 7-08-1997
Forex ...Precious Metals ...Energies....Grains...Softs...Livestock...Bonds..SP500
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERANT LIMITATIONS., SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTAION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT , THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSITE. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ADVERSLY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKET IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSLEY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS..
Material Assumptions : *The begining account size on Feb 9 1997 $ 55,000 Each trade is derived from FuturesCom's Bi-Weekly Outlook,Special Reports, and FuturesCom's Flashes and UpDates which pertain to the same. FuturesCom Morning Comments are not included in the Statistics,however FuturesCom will track Morning Comments at a later date. The slippage and fees are computed at $ 50.00 per round turn trade,and charged upon exit, with adjustments carried on open trades to account for fees. Prices are dervied from Entry and Exits of Futures Contracts traded on U.S. Futures Exchanges recommended in FuturesCom Flashes, Special Reports and Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook.
Cumulative Hypothetical Performance 2-09-1997 thru 6-15-1997 $ 55,000.00 BEGINING 2/9 $ 63,751.81 PROFIT/LOSS thru 7/3 232 Trades $118,751.81 Includes Open Trades 6-28 thru 7-03(Most Recent) Bi Weekly Investment Outlook $3,425.75 PROFIT/LOSS 6-28 (15 EXITED) 25 TOTAL TRADES -755.05 OPEN PROFIT/LOSS (1O OPEN) -750 FEES ON OPEN TRADES $120,672.50 as of 7-08 6-28 ACTION DATE ENTRY EXIT DATE RESULT OPEN DMU S 6-30 5789 5757 7-1 350 SPU S 6-30 900.4 896.4 6-30 1,950 SIU L 6-30 469,5 428.5 7-7 -2,100 KCU L 6-30 167.85 173.4 6-30 2,031.25 PBN S 6-30 8522 8290 7-02 930 LHN S 6-30 8482 8440 6-30 120 OJX L 6-30 7860 -75 WZ L 6-30 344 -250 SQ L 6-30 734.5 718.25 6-30 -875 BOZ L 6-30 2190 306 HOQ L 6-30 5330 5445 7-1 433 JYU L 7-1 8777 8803 7-1 275 CLQ S 7-1 1992 2013 7-1 -260 KCU S 7-1 177.40 178.40 7-1 -425 PBN S 7-1 8500 8290 7-2 840 SMZ L 7-1 194 191 7-1 -350 LHQ S 7-1 8260 8132.5 7-1 460 SX L 7-1 590 602 7-8 550 HUQ S 7-1 5925 5830 7-3 349 HGU L 7-02 109.65 111.9 7-2 512.5 PLV L 7-02 405.5 -950 SUV S 7-1 1137 347.2 PBQ S 7-3 8200 1,400 BPU S 7-3 168.90 276 SPU S 7-3 923.65 925.15 7-3 -800 GCQ L 7-3 331.9 319 7-7 -1,340 BDU S 7-3 113'01 -656.25 CLQ L 7-7 1931 1981 7-8 450 HGU L 7-7 109.65 -1,150 CU L 7-7 230 -12.5 CTV L 7-7 7345 100 FCQ L 7-8 7997 37.5 HUQ S 7-8 5925 147 PBQ S 7-8 7785 -260 PLV L 7-8 386.80 - 15 3,425.75 -755.05 Cumulative Hypothetical Performance on Recommendations 2-09-1997 thru 6-15-1997 $55,000.00 BEGINING 2/9 $63,751.81 Profit/-Loss thru 7/8 233 Trades Ending $118,751.81 Inlcudes open trades 6-28 thru 7-08 Bi Weekly Investment Outlook $3,425.75 Profit/loss 6-28 - 755.05 OPEN PROFIT/LOSS - 750 FEES ON OPEN TRADES $120,672.51 Net as of 7-08
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