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Forex ...Precious Metals ...Energies....Grains...Softs...Livestock...Bonds..SP500 "Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable -ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking -chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk"
--Reminiscences of a Stock Operator--
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
FURTHERMORE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERANT LIMITATIONS., SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTAION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT , THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSITE. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ADVERSLY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKET IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSLEY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS..
Tuesday, July 01 1997 06:30 AM
On the Frenzied Forex Front
Sept J-Yen Recommended Position Long at 8777
Selling pressure will be seen near 8837 above that sell JYU near 8892 for a quick turn lower. Medium Term sellers initiate short positions at 9040 use a stop close over 9067 for two days in a row. Good support remains near 8744, risk a close under 8727 for three days in a row. Below that a slip to 8660 is expected .Traders can go long near 8484 for a bounce , risk a close under 8406 for two days.
Trade Accordingly.
Sept Swiss Franc
Early resistance is near 6910 where day traders can look to short , risk 40 pts. Above that 6930 then 7003 offers a selling region where short term traders can short the Swiss and risk a close over 7017 for two days in a row. Support remains near 6859 then 6811.
Sept British:
Support is near 164.20 buy there for a bounce , risk a close under 164.00 for three days in a row. More support is near 162.66. Resistance is near 167.20 above that go short for a turn near 168.90 , risk a close over 169.60 for two days in a row.
Sept D-Mark Recommended Position short at 5789
Still bearish , resistance next week should raise its head near 5778 then 5803 where short term above that 5853, wheretraders can sell for a turn, risk a close over 5867 for three days in a row. Support is near 5753 then 5703 and 5678 . eventually we see a drop to 5577.
IPrecious Metals
August Gold :
Long term traders should have buy orders waiting to assume longs for the pull.at 331.9 Risk a close under 328 for two days...Resistance is near 336.5 then 339.
Sept Copper
.Recommeded Position Long at 113.55. Resistance is near 111.70 then 113.70 . Support is near 111.65 , below that 111.35 then 109.65 where traders should buy again and hold , use a stop close under 107.10 for three days in a row.
Oct Platinum
Support should appear near 408 where traders can begin to buy , use a stop under 398.5 Below that a slip towards 389 is likely. Go long near 386.8 for a turn higher , risk a close under 379 for two days in a row Resistance is near 416.then 424.5
Still friendly...
Sept Silver:
Recommended Position: long 482.5 and 469.5. Support should appear near 462.5 where traders should have buy orders waiting. Risk 5 cents. Resistance is near 470.5 then 479.5, with more at 490 .then 497.
A close over467 is friendly.,..
The Exciting Energies
August Crude Oil. Recommended Position Short at 1992 Support should appear near 1957 where then 1948 day traders can buy for a bounce. Below that 1931 where traders should have buy orders waiting for a position. Use a stop under 1901 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 1998 to 2007 sell there fopr a turn risk 30 pts.
August Unleaded
Support is near 5630 where traders should buy for bounce and hold using a stop close under 5580 for three days in a row.Resistance is near 5825 then 5925.Sell for a turn at 5925, risk a close over 5960 for two days in a row.
August Heating Oil. Recommended position long at 5330.
We see Support near 5345 where agressive traders can buy for a turn higher and risk 80 ptsose under 5240 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 5515 and 5645, sell 5645 for a turn and risk a close over 5730 for three days in a row.
The ‘Grande’ Grains
July Beans
Recommended Position Long 45 @ 828 last bought at 796. Does a cat really have nine lives ? Support is near 779 then 759 Resistance is early near 795 a close over augurs for a thrust 813 then 828.
Technically speaking Beans are vastly oversold and prime for a rally. Pattern work suggests the begining if a strength period approaching . However fundamental news is now about to be released which from the recent market action should be bearish. If beans begin a rally this week it should carry to the Mid July to Early August time frame. Light the candles...
August Beans
Recommended Position long 817 and 788 Support is near 734 1/2 where purchases should be made, for the pull into the 'Dog Days of Summer' .Risk a close under 732. In fact day traders can Buy with Both Hands at 732 3/4 on Monday, risk 5 cents.exit at 746 to 749.where resistance remains. Below that 721 should hold. More Resistance is near 760. a close over 760 augurs for a trade to 786. Then beyond to 811 into the late July near August 10 period.
A close over 810 augurs for a pop to 835 .....
July Soybean Meal
Recommended Position Long 3 @ avg 282.3
Dec Soybean Meal.
Support is near 198.2 , below that a slip to 194 is likely , traders can buy for a turn , risk a close under 192 Resistance is near 211 then 214 to 217.5 A close over augurs for 211 is friendly.
Trade accordingly
Dec Soybean Oil
Support is near 2190 where traders should buy for a turn and use a stop close under 2126 for three days in a row...Below that 2088 should hold and long term traders can buy for the Pull then prey for an early frost.... Resistance is near 2297 above that 2311 offers selling as well as 2378 sell there for a turn, risk a close over 2405 for three days in a row.
Sept Corn
Buy Sept Corn at 230 if able , risk a close under 222 for three days in a row. However a close over 239 is friendly and traders should buy if that occurs looking for a two to three day rally to exit near 255. Resistance is near 241 then 245. With an RSI of only 17, sales on rallies only are suggested . Sellers should begin sales near 245 up to 256...
December Wheat
Resistance is near 356 then 370 . A close over 353 is friendly Support is near 344 where traders are urged to have buy orders waiting for a bounce , risk a close under 338 for three days in a row. More support is near 332.
July Oats.
Recommended Position Long at 161.
Dec Oats
A close over 149 augurs for a test of 157 Support is near 141 then 133 buy there, risk a close under 127 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 151 the 157 above that 163 should trade.
The Satisfying Softs
October Cotton
Recommended Position Short at 7615 Support is near 7530 then 7485 below that traders can buy/ cover at 7345 for a position, use a stop under 7250 for three days in a row. Resistance should appear near 7685 then 7735
A close under 7645 is negative ...
October Sugar
Support is near 1097 then 12068 where traders can buy for a position, risk a close uncer 1056 for three days ina row.Resistance is near 1137 where traders can sell for a turn , risk a close over 1146 for three days in a row.
Trade accordingly.
September the' Monster' Coffee
Early Support is near 167.85 , buy there fgor a bounce , risk a close under 165.90 High risk traders :Go long Sept Coffee near 159.30 for the 'pull'. risk a close under 152.50 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 170.76 then 176.55 sell short at 177.40 , risk a trade over 178.50. More resistance is near 181 then 187. Hearty traders can sell near 212.50 , risk a close over 213.5 for three days in a row...
A close over 178 is friendly. Stay Tuned & Have your' Steel Cup' Ready
November Orange Juice
Blue plate Special... Buy November Orange Juice at 7880 or better .. hold for the pull... Risk a close under 7550 for three days in a row... Resistance is near 8055 above that 8270 should trade...
Trade Accordingly..
Sept Cocoa
Recommended position. short at 1707... Support is near 1671 then 1655 then 1642, below that a slip to 1615 is likely. Resistance is near 1691 then 1708. Go short for a turn at 1741, risk a close over 1774 for three days in a row.
The Lively Livestock
August Cattle
Recommended Position Long at 6412 and 6382. Risk a close under 6325 for three days in a row.
Nearby Support is 6417 then 6407. Below that 6377 offers support. A break to 6330 should encourage buyers to appear. Resisitance is near 6480. A close over 6480 augurs for a pop to 6555 to 6567. A close over 6567 indiicates a test of contract highs set last year at 6675 or higher. Eventually I see much higher prices in cattle down the road.
August Feeder Cattle
Support is at 7997 where short term traders should have buy orders waiting to go long ,risk a close under 7887. Good support is 7667 where medium term traders should have buyers waiting. stay tuned. Resistance is near 8095 , beyond that a test of 8225 to 8312
The All Important Pig Crop was released Friday , Shortly after the report' Sources indicate a higher open Monday on Front end Hogs and a sharply Higher Backend.
A couple hours later Sources tempered the calls for monday's open... Let the market tell all.
However a 100 pt rally in Hogs is no Big Deal. Also participants are suggesting Demand from Japan could surface .... Sounds like a broken record... For now hold the course and stay tuned...
However I do suggest keeping a close eye on the August / Dec Hog Spread... more later...
July Hogs
Recommended Position short July Hogs at 8290 ... Resistance is near 8305 to 8337 above that 8382 to 8405 where we would sell for a turn lower, use a stop close over 8487 for three days in a row. Support is near 8257 then 8187 ..stay tuned....
August Hogs
Support is near 705 then 7640 where traders can buy for a bounce. risk 100 pts .. Resistance is near 8060 to 8080 , aboce that 8137 then 8225 where we would sell for a turn , risk 75 pts basis the close for three days in a row..
July Bellies
Recommended Position Short 3 avg 8385. Resistance is near 8272 then 8357 above that 8390 offers resistance. A close over augurs for a pop to 8480.where hearty traders can sell for a quick turn, risk a close over 8587 for three days in a row. Support remains near 8147 then 8090 below that 8040 should trade.Below that 7980. A close under augurs for a slip to 7660 then 7607 then below that expect a decline to 7427.
Bellies are not for Widows and Orphans, only traders who have Ice Water in their Veins should trade Pork Bellies.
U.S. 30 Year Bonds.
Sept Bonds
Recommended Short at 110-18 and 111-26 , risk a three day close over 112-15 a test under 110-00 is a possibiltiy ..stay tuned.
Resistance is near 111-26 above that a test of 112-07 is likely Beyond that long term traders and hedgers can sell Sept Bonds at 113-01, risk a close over 113-08 for three days in a row. Above that 113-23 should trade. Support is 111-07 then 111-01. Good buyers should appear near 110-29 and 110-12. A close under 111-01 early during the next week augurs for a pullback to 110-12, below that a test of 110-07 is likely then 109-15. Cover shorts and go long for a for a good 2 day bounce , risk a close under 109-12.
Standard and poor's SP 500 Index
Sept SP500
On the Downside, we see support at 893.60 then 891.30 Below that we would buy 881.65 for a turn higher, stay tuned. A close under 881.00 augurs for a pullback to 877.70 where we would probe the long side use a 250 pt stop. Below that 870.00 is likely. If the market closes under 870 a slip towards the 868.30 to 866.80 region can be expected. A drop under that augurs for a pull-back to 849.60 where traders should not run, but Buy.....stay tuned..
Trade the SP500 like Porcupines make love -Carefully.
On the Upside, Resistance is near 900.40 where traders can short for a qick turn, risk only 100 pts or a close over 902.60 take your choice... but stay tuned... A trade over 902.55 augurs for a pop to 904.40 then 906 where the fight should begin... Beyond that 909.90 should trade ,above that we see spurt to 912.05 . a close over augurs for a test of 914 to 915.60 .If that does not stop the rally then 921.65 should trade , we would sell 923..60 for a turn ,risk 150 pts.
Traders should treat the SP500 as a' trading affair' rather than being bullish or bearish. With the Volitility present at this time one does not have to take positions , just be on the right side for a bit and run ...Trade Accordingly..
"When in Doubt Stay Out"
Happy Trading
Bill