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Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook II
July 26 1998
"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable - ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking - chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk."
-Reminiscences of a Stock Operator-
Saturday July 25 1998
11:03 AM
On the Frenzied Forex Front
Sept. J-Yen Recommended Position Long at (3) at 7245
Nearby Support
is 7115. Beneath that support is 7090 to 7088 and 7074. A close under 7074 augurs for a slip towards 7038 to 7024 and the 7003 to 6990 region. Traders can buy at 7003 and hold for higher prices.Resistance is at 7143 and 7156 then 7170 to 7182 to 7190. A close over 7170 augurs for a test of resistance at 7207/ 7214 with a likely push towards 7242 to 7256.
Beyond that resistance is 7328 to 7342. Traders should continue to prepare for another rally to the 7328 to 7342 region. A close over 7342 indicates a test of resistance near 7414 to 7428. Above that resistance is at 7587 to 7601 and 7675 to 7689, eventually we see a rally to 7675. Traders can go short at 7675, risk a close over 7690 for three days in a row.
Sept. Swiss
Nearby resistance
next week is 6741 to 6755. A close over 6755 augurs for a test of 6786 to 6790.A close or extended trade over 6790 is friendly for a pop to 6809. Beyond that resistance is at 6836/ 6840. Traders can go short for a quick turn lower at 6840. Risk a close over 6840 for two days in a row. Beyond that resistance is at 6906 to 6919.Support is at 6714 to 6707 go long at 6714, initially plan on a risking a close under 6673 for two days in a row. Below 6714 to 6707 support should appear at 6690 to 6686 where traders can buy for turn at 6690, risk 35 pts. Below that good support is near 6640 and 6591. Traders should buy at 6591 and hold for higher prices.
Buy Dips
Sept. British Pound: Recommended position short at 1.6510
100 pts. Below that support should appear at 1.6332 and 1.6220\. Below that a slip to 1.6150/ 1.6090 is likely. Traders should buy at 1.6150 and hold for higher prices.
Resistance is at 1.6612 and 1.6672, beyond that resistance should appear at 1.6720. A close over 1.6720 augurs for a test of 1.6900 to 1.6960. Traders can sell at 1.6890 for a turn lower, risk a close over 1.6960 for three days in a row.
Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position long at 5490
Nearby Resistance
is at 5639 /5640 and 5653. A trade over 5658 augurs for a test of 5673 to 5689. A close over 5690 indicates likely test of 5716 to 5729. Beyond that good resistance is at 5792 to 5805 and 5820 to 5855 then 5880. Traders can sell short at 5855 and hold for lower prices.Support is at 5613 and 5609. Below that support is at 5589 and 5577. Traders can buy at 5589, risk close under 5553 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 5539 and 5504 and 5492. Below that support is at 5430 to 5418. Day traders can buy at 5430 for a bounce, risk 20 pts. A close under 5418 is negative for a slip towards the 5356 to 5344 region. Where hearty traders can go long and hold for higher prices into August.
Sept. Canadian Dollar
Support
should try to appear near the 6673 to 6659 region.Resistance is at 6680 and 6695 to 6707. A close over 6707 is friendly for a test of 67340 to 6741. Traders should sell at 5741, risk a close over 6753 for two days in a row. Beyond that resistance is at 6783 and 6809. Traders should sell at 6809 for a turn lower towards the trend. Risk a close over 6836 for three days in a row.
A near term close over 6695 is friendly. Traders can go long if a close over 6695 Occurs. Initially plan on Risking a close back under 6672.
Precious Metals
August Gold Recommended Position Long at 298.10 and 293.10
Support
is at 288.30 and 285.30. Day traders can buy at 285.30, risk $ 4.00. Beneath that support is at 275.3 and 273.80Resistance is at 293.60 and 294.50 to 295.30. A close over 295.30 augurs for a test of 301 to 303.60 where good sellers should appear. Traders should go long if a close over 295.30 occurs.
Trade Accordingly.
Sept. Copper:
Nearby Support
is at 7985, day traders should go long at 7985, risk 100 pts. Below that support should appear at 7905 and 7855. A close under 7855 augurs for a test of 7770 and 7710 where traders should have buy orders waiting to go long for a good two to three day bounce. Risk a close under 7480 for three days in a row.Resistance is at 8135, a close over 8135 augurs for a test of 8190 to 8225. Beyond that good resistance is at 8290. A close over 8290 indicates a trade higher towards resistance is 8470 then 8620. Above that traders should go short at 8690 and hold for lower prices.
Traders should go long if a close over 8135 occurs.
Trade Accordingly,
Oct. Platinum
Nearby Support
is at 376 and 372.5. Traders can go long at 372.5, risk a close under 365 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 359 and 355. 0Resistance is at 381.5 and 382.5 Beyond that resistance is near 392.5 and 409. Traders should Go Short at 409 for a quick turn lower. Risk a Close over 412 for two days in a row.
Bullish long term.
Sept. Silver Recommended Position long at 565
On the Downside
: Nearby Support is at 570. Traders can buy at 570 and hold. Below that good buyers should appear at 553.5 to 548.5 traders should go long at 553.5 for a good 2 to 3 day bounce. Risk close under 541 for three days in a row. Below that good support is at 522.On the Upside. Resistance is at 583.5 and 588. A close over 588.5 augurs for a test 596 to 603. Beyond that resistance is at 619 and 629
Trade accordingly.
The Exciting Energies
September Crude
Support
is at 1383 to 1377 and 1367, traders should go long at 1377 for a good bounce. Risk a close under 1334 for two days in row. Below 1377 support is near the 1346 to 1334 region and it should hold.Resistance is at 1389 then 1415 to 1421. Beyond that resistance is at 1453 to 1459. A close over 1459 indicates a test of the 1484 to 1496 region. Beyond that another thrust towards the 1529 to 1535 region is possible. Beyond that traders should sell at 1621 and hold for a turn lower.
* A trade over 1418 is friendly, traders should go long at 1418 Stop.
September Unleaded Gas
Nearby Support
is at 4249 and 4205. Below that support is 4183 then 4115.Traders should buy at 4249, risk a close under 4183 for two days in a row.
A close under 4165 augurs for a test 4090 and 4057. Traders should buy at 4047 and hold for higher prices.
Resistance is at 4345 and 4381. A close over 4347 augurs for a test of the 4425 to 4446 region. Beyond that resistance is 4570 and 4630. Above that resistance is near 4850, traders can go short at 4850, risk a close over 4927 then reverse for a rally to 5210 where traders can go short at 5210 for a turn lower, risk a close over 5285 for two days in a row.
* Traders should go long on a close over 4927
September Heating Oil Recommended Position long at 3748
Early Resistance
is at 3738, a close over augurs for a rally to 3822 with a likely test of 3880. Beyond that 3910 offers resistance. A close over 3910 is friendly for a rally to the 4070 /4110 region. Above that resistance is at 4235.Support is at 3680 and 3580. Below that 3505 too 34923 should contain a break.
The Grande Grains
November Soybeans Recommended Position Long at 588, 2 @ 566 1/4
Support
is at 559 and 552 and 546 to 540 Traders should buy for the Pull at 540 1/2.Resistance is at 566 to 568 beyond that resistance is at 574. A close over 574 is friendly for a rally to 580 and 594. Above that resistance is at 609.
Dec. Soybean Meal
Support
is 148.3 and 146.1 Below that Support is near 143.5 and 142.5.Traders should go long at 143 for a good turn higher, risk a close under 137.70 for three days in a row.
Resistance is at 151.5 then 153.3 A close over 153.5 augurs for a test of 158 to beyond that good resistance is at 165.
Traders should go long if a close over 153.5 occurs.
Trade Accordingly.
Dec. Soybean Oil
Support
is at 2419 to 2411. Traders should buy at 2412 Risk a close under 2354 for three days in a row. Below that support should appear at 2322 to 2315. A close under 2315 augurs for a test of 2275 to 2267 below that 2226 to 2219 should hold. Traders should Buy at 2219 and Hold.Resistance is at 2442 and 2461 to 2469. A close over 2469 is friendly for a rally to 2511 to 2519 and the 2552 to 2568 region. Beyond that resistance is at 2612.
Beyond that Traders should sell at 2612 for a turn lower. Risk a close over 2629 for two days in a row.
Traders should go long if a close over 2469 occurs.
Dec. Corn
Support
is at 228 1/4 and 225 1/2. Below that support is near 219 1/4 below that 212 should hold. Traders should buy at 212 for a 2-3 day bounce, risk a close under 208 for two days in a row.Resistance is at 233 1/2, a close over augurs for a short covering rally to 239. Beyond that resistance is at 245, a close over 245, traders should sell at 245, risk a close over 247 for two days in a row, if that occurs a test of 262 is likely.
Dec. Wheat
Resistance
is at 282 3/4. A close over augurs for a rally to 287 and 290 3/4. Beyond that resistance is at 296 to 298. Traders s can sell short at 298, risk a close over304 1/2.
On the Downside Support is at 278 1/2 and 273 1/4 Below that support should appear at 266 1/2 and 262.
Traders should buy at 278 3/4, risk close under 273 for three days in a row.
In addition a close over 282 3/4 is friendly, go long for a push towards 290 if a close over 282 3/4 occurs.
The Satisfying Softs
Dec. Cotton
Recommended Position Long at 7513 ands 7235Support is at 7170 and 7143, beneath that 7092 offers good support. Traders can buy at 7092 and hold for higher prices.
Resistance is 7249 and 7271. A close over 7249 augurs for a test of resistance at 7365. A close over 7365 indicates a move towards 7770.
Traders should go long if a close over 7256 occurs
Trade Accordingly
Oct. Sugar
Support
is at 824 and 814. Traders can buy at 823, risk a close under 814 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 803 and 795 to 791.Resistance near at 847 and 852 to 859. A close over 864 indicates at test of resistance at 877 to 882. Beyond that good resistance is near the 907 to 910 region. A close over 912 augurs for a test of 932 to 941 Traders should sell at 877 for a turn lower, risk a close over 882 for three days in a row.
Sept. Coffee:
On the downside,
Early support is at 111.10 and 110.10 Traders can buy at 110.10, risk a close under support at 108.50. Below that 107.20 to 106.80/ 105.80 should hold. Traders can buy at 106.20 for a bounce. Stay tuned for the Stop. Below that 103.60 should hold for now.On the Upside, Resistance is at 112.10 and 113.00 /113.60, a close over 113.60 augurs for a touch of 115.10, Beyond that resistance is at 116.40 to 116.90/ 117.05. Traders can sell at 116.90 for a turn lower. stay tuned for the stop.
Sept. Cocoa Recommended Position Long at 1586.
Support
is at 1576/ 1569. Traders can Buy for a turn higher at 1573 risk a close under 1561 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 1535 to 1529 and 1520. Traders can buy at 1535, risk a trade under 1490.Resistance is at 1595 and the 1609 to 1615 region. A close over 1609 is friendly for a test of 1620 to 1626. A trade over 1626 is friendly for a rally towards 1642 to 1655. Beyond that 1670 offers resistance. Traders can go short for a turn lower at 1670, risk a close over 1692 for two days in a row.
* A trade through 1626 is friendly, traders should go long using a 1628 Buy Stop, risk a close back under 1609 for two days in a row.
The Lively Livestock
October Cattle
Recommended Position long at 3 @ 6210.Support is at 6145 and 6102. Below that 6075 should bring out a few buyers.
Resistance is at 6245 and 6287. A close over 6287 augurs for a test of 6350 and 6417.
Long term Friendly
August Hogs Recommended Position long 2 at 4977
Support
is at 4926 to 4915, below that support is at 4890 to 4872 then 4777 to 4752.Resistance is at 4977 and 5012. A trade over 5012 indicates a test of 5077. Where good sellers remain. However a close over 5027, should bring out some considerable short covering from the Funds, if this happens expect a rally to 5225.
Stay tuned for updates.
October Hogs Recommended Position Long at 4612 and 2 @ 4382.
Resistance is now at 4417 to 4427. A close over 4427 indicates a test of 4512 to 4527. Above that resistance is at 4572. Beyond that 4722 offers good resistance.
Support is at 4327 to 4317. Below that Hearty traders can buy at 4227 for a good bounce Below that 4190 should hold basis the close.
--From the Frying Pan into the Fire--
August Bellies
Support is at 5962 and 5912, aggressive traders should buy for a bounce only at 5917. Stay tuned for the stop. Below that support is at 5880 to 5855 and 5762.
A close under 5762, augurs for a test of 5517.
Resistance is at 6062 and 6105 to 6117. Beyond that 6212 to 6262 good resistance is at 6467, sell at 6467 and hold for, lower prices.
Stay tuned for Updates in the Pig complex
The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
Sept. Bonds
On The Downside, Nearby Support is 122-24 and 122-14/ 122-13. Day traders can buy at 122-14 for a good bounce, risk 15 pts. A close under 122-13 is negative and augurs for an eventual slip to 121-13. Traders can buy at 121-13, risk a close under 120-08 for three days in a row.
On the Upside: Resistance is at 123-08/ 123-10 and 123-13. A close over 123-13 is friendly for a push towards 124-13/ 124-14, sell at 124-13 for a turn lower, risk a close over 124-21 for two days in a row. Above that resistance is at 125-08 to 125-13 which should cap a rally.
Sept. SP500
On the DownSide,
Support is at 1137 and 1136. A trade under 1136 augurs for a test of 1133.90 and 1130 to 1128.40. a close under 1128.40 augurs for a test of support at 1115.50 and 1101, Below that 1097.20 to 1096 should hold. However a close under 1096 is negative for a slip to 1086.30 and 1082.00. /below that Support is at 1170.20 to 1068, a close under 1168 is negative for a drop to 1158 and eventually 1149.70 where traders can buy and hold for higher prices.On the Upside, Resistance is at 1150 and 1157.80 Beyond that good sellers should show up at 1160.40 Sell at 1160.50 and hold for lower prices. Above that resistance is at 1164 to 1169 and 1174.70. Beyond that 1179.30 to 1180.50 should trade and cap a rally for now. Beyond that 1190 to 1192 offers good resistance, sell at 1192 and risk a close over 1197.50 for three days in a row. Beyond that resistance is at 1203 and 1217.5 then 1223, above that 1232 to 1238 offers resistance Hearty traders should sell at 1232 and hold.
* traders who have 'Ice Water Running through their Veins.' Should Go Short.
On Sunday Eve at 1150 if able, stay tuned for flashes.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Support
is 8934/ 8929 and 8871 to 8856, under that support is at 8805.5. A Slip under 8798 is negative and augurs for a pullback towards the 8777 to 8762 region. A close under 8759 augurs for a test of 8719 and an eventual test of 8683 to 8668. Below that 8598 should hold if not an eventual break down towards 8180 is likely.Resistance should first appear at 8941.70 and 8964. A close over 8964 augurs for a rally to 9044/ 9060 then 9115 and 9140 to 9156/9158.60, above that resistance is at 9197 and 9236. Beyond that resistance is 9316 to 9347. Beyond that resistance is at 9388 and 9429 to 9445.
-I would rather be Out of a market wishing I were In, then In wishing I was Out-
Happy Trading
Bill
Sunday July 16 1998
08:476 AM
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