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Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook
August 23rd 1997
"The possession of GOLD has ruined fewer men than the lack of it". -----Thomas Bailey Aldridge"
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
Saturday August 23rd 1997
12:00 PM EST
On the Frenzied Forex Front
Sept. J-Yen
Early Resistance is near 8484 and 8499. Failure to breach 8502 early augurs for a dip towards 8452 then 8401 to 8388, where traders should buy for a turn higher , risk a close under 8391 for two days in a row. Traders should also consider selling Sept Yen early in the week at 8501 or 8451 stop , risk a close over 8525 for two days in a row.
Pick your poison...
Sept. Swiss Franc
Support should appear at 6680 to 6660, traders can buy an early break at 6673 , risk a close under 6630 for three days in a row. Below that 6580 offers some support. Buy at 6580 for a bounce risk 30 pts. Early Resistance is at 6730 to 6741 , then 6765 a close over 6777 augurs for a trade to 6817 then 6891, sell at 6906 for a quick turn risk a close over 6921 for three days in a row.
Trade Accordingly..
Sept. British:
Early Support is at 159.60, buy at 159.30 for a turn higher risk a close under 158.48 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 160.90 then 161.50. Beyond that traders should sell at 162.28 for a turn lower, risk a close over 162.68 for three days in a row. Above that augurs for a trade to 164.20...
Sept. D-Mark * Agressive traders should Buy DMU at open on Sunday Eve.
Support is near 5504 then 5491 to 5471, buy at 5471 for a position , risk a close under 5429 for three days in a row. Below that 5356 offers support.
Resistance should appear in the 5521 to 5534 above that 5553 then 5577 offers resistance.Beyond that 5601 then 5640 and 5653 offers resistance. Traders can sell short at 5689 for turn , risk a close over 5717 for three days ina row.
Trade Accordingly and Stay tuned for FuturesCom Flashes ..
Precious Metals
December Gold Recommended Position long at 328.80
Long term traders should have buy orders waiting to assume longs for the 'pull' at 323.90 risk a close under 312.0 for three days in a row. More Support is at 322.2 .Resistance is near 333.6 then 334.8 and 342.2 A close over 334.8 augurs for a thrust to 344.9.Where Longs can sell calls or exit positions and await a dip to re-buy. A close over 345 augurs for a trade to 353 where traders can short the Yellow Metal for a turn only , risk a close over 356.
Be Long ...Conservative Traders Should Buy April and Feb Gold 370 Calls to maintain exposure on the long Side.
Dec Copper
Nearby support is at 9930 More support is near 9675 and 9600. Good Support is at 9545, where traders should have buy orders waiting for a turn higher. Risk a close under 9445 for three days in a row. Resistance is at 100.05 and 100.75 Traders should sell at 102.45 for a turn lower risk a close over 103.60 for three days in a row.
Trade Accordingly
Oct. Platinum Recommended Position Long 3 avg 427.
Support should appear near 405.9 to 401.7 where aggressive traders can begin to buy, more support rests near 397.9 where traders should buy for the 'pull' Risk a close under 389.9 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 411 then 417.5 to 421.7 , a close over 417.5 indicates at 'Dash' to 434 then 454 prior to expiration.
Buy dips
Sept. Silver Recommended Position long at 450
December Silver
Early support is 472 buy there for a bounce, risk 8 cents. More Support should appear near 461.5 buy at 463.5 for a position, risk a close under 455 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 478 then 486.5 and 494. Beyond that a test of 510.5 then 518.9 is likely, If it holds
A close over 472 maintains good posture , over 479 is friendly...
Trade Accordingly.
The Exciting Energies
Oct Crude Oil
Early support is at 1961 , traders should buy at 1953 , risk a trade under 1940. Good Support is near 1944 and 1936 , below that 1922, where traders should have buy orders waiting for a 2- Day Turn higher , risk a close under 1902 for three days in a row.higher Resistance is near 1975 sell there risk a trade over 1999 above that 2002 to 2011 offers Resistance. Short term traders should sell at 2008 risk a close over 2055 or a trade over 2067
Eventually Crude will begin a long awaited rally however my belief is that it won't begin until late Sept.
Trade Accordingly..
Oct Unleaded
Early support is near 5965 with more Support at 5875 where traders should buy using a stop close under 5750 for two days in a row. More support is near 5675, where traders should buy for a bounce risk a trade under 5570. Resistance is near 6165 then 6195 where traders should sell , risk 100 pts. a close over 6200 augurs for a test of 6265 sell there for a quick turn, risk 70 pts. Beyond that 6415 is where traders should sell for a Position risk a close over 6485 for two days in a row.
Trade Accordingly
Dec Heating Oil.
Traders should buy Dec Heat at 5565 for the 'Pull', risk a close under 5490 for three days in a row. Support should appear near 5495 and 5430 to 5415. Below that 5355 shold hold. Resistance is near 5675 to 5695 . Above that 5755 offers reistance a close over augurs for a 'pop' to 5845.
A close over 5655 is Friendly and traders should go long if that occurs.. stay tuned
The ‘Grande’ Grains
November Beans Recommended Position Long at 617
Early Resistance is near 628 3/4 , traders can sell at 628 , risk a trade over 632. More Resistance is at 642 , sell at 641 risk a close over 642 for two day in a row.
Support is at 614 to 610 1/2, buy at 614 , risk 8 cents. A close r early trade under 610 augurs for an extended break to 603 where support lies, below that traders should have buy orders at 600 for a bounce risk, 5 cents.
Dec Soybean Meal
Support is near 200.9 then 197.9, buy at 199.7 for a bounce risk a close under 194.70 Resistance is near 206.7 sell at 207 risk a close over 212 for three days in a row.
Dec Soybean Oil Recommended Position Long at 2185
Buy Dec Bean Oil at 2314 for a bounce , risk a trade under 2260.
Below that 2221 should hold. Long term traders should buy at 2226 for the 'Pull'.
Resistance is near 2348 Beyond that 2387 should trade. A close over 2387 augurs fora trade to 2414. Good selling will appear at 2464, sell short at 2464 risk a close over 2469 for three days in a row.
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned
Dec Corn
Early support is at 274 a trade under augurs for a slip to 269, Buy Dec Corn at 262 1/2 able, risk a close under 255 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 282 More Selling should begin near 284 3/4 then 287 1/4. Traders should sell at 286, 'till the cows come home' risk a close over 294 for three days in row.
December Wheat
Resistance is near 395 sell there and risk a close over 403 for three days .in a row. More resistance is at 400 and 403 . Support is near 374 3/4 , buy there for a bounce risk 7 cents, below that 366 then 359 offer support , Buy Dec Wheat at 365 , risk a close under 359 for three days in a row.
Trade Accordingly
The Satisfying Softs
October Cotton
Support is near 7305 then 7205 where traders can buy for a turn, use a stop close under 7190 for 3 days in a row. Resistance should appear near 7390 then 7455 then 7570 sell at 7455 for a turn lower risk a close over 7590 for two days in a row.
October Sugar
Early Support is at 1174 with more resting near 1157 and 1127 where traders can buy for a turn higher, risk a close under 1107 for three days in a row.More Support is at 1092. Resistance is near 1192 to 1203 sell at 1192 risk a close over 1214 for three days in a row. Beyond that 1232 to 1238 offers good resistance and should cap any further rally...
Stay Tuned
December Coffee
Early support is near 158.75 buy there for a bounce,risk 275 pts. . More Support is near 152.90 then 150.30. Buy at 149.60, risk a close under 145.30 for three days in a row. If that fails a slip to 139 then 137 is likely. Resistance is near 161.30 then 169.70, sell at 168.90 risk a close over 169.70 for two days in a row . If Dec Coffee Rallies to 189.40 sell for a turn lower , risk a close over 190.90 for two days in a row..
Have your' Steel Cup' Ready
November Orange Juice
Resistance is near 7020 sell there for a quick turn lower , risk 150 pts. Beyond that 7200 offers resistance. A close over 7140 is friendly. and augurs for a rally to 7900 . Support should appear near 6810 , buy there risk a close under 6740.
Ugly...
December Cocoa
Support is near 1551 where traders should buy for a turn, risk a close under 1528 for two days in a row. More support is at 1496, buy at 1484 , risk 30 pts. Resistance is near 1605 then 1614, sell there risk a close over 1647 for two days in a row.
November Lumber
Support is near 332.80 buy there risk a close under 326 for three days in a row More Support is 329. where traders can buy for a bounce risk a close under 326 for three days in a row. Resistance is near 342.00 then 344.00, beyond that 347.00 offers resistance , sell there risk a close over 352, for three days in a row. Trade Accordingly.
The Lively Livestock
Oct Cattle: Recommended Position Long at 6972
Buy Oct at 6782 , risk a close under 6777 for three days in a row. More Support is at 6717. Resisitance is near 6932 and 6962, a close over 6952 augurs for a trade to 7007 then 7032 beyond that 7077 offers a selling region, sell at 7072 risk a close over 7082 for three days in a row.
Trade Accordingly.
October Feeder Cattle
Support remains at 7890. Below that support lies at 7867, buy there risk a close under 7730 where traders should buy orders resting for a turn higher..stay tuned. Resistance is near 8022 then 8090, a close over 8090 augurs for a test of 8122 , sell at 8117 risk a close over then 8137 for two days in a row. Trade accordingly.
October Hogs Recommended Position long at 7022
Nearby Resistance is at 7187 then 7210 sell there for a turn,risk a close over 7257 for two days in a row. A close over 7320 augurs for a pop to 7447 sell there for a position risk a close over 7602 for three days in a row. Support is 7087, buy at 7082 , for a bounce risk only 30 pts. A close under 7027 indicates a trade down to 6987 and eventually 6907 where buyers should go long for a turn higher , risk 100 pts.
Stay Tuned ....
Feb Bellies Recommended Position Long at 7237
Support is at 7042 below that 7012 offers support , buy at 7012 a close under 6987. Resistance is near 7190, a close over 7197 augurs for a 'pop' to 7282 then 7342 . Sell 7437 for a quick turn down , risk a close over 7677 for three days in a row.
U.S. 30 Year Bond Futures.
Sept Bonds Recommended Position Short at 113-30
Early Resistance is 112-18 with more at 113-01 to 113-04. Sell at 113-04 , risk only 10 pts. Beyond that 113-24 offers a selling region, sell at 113-24 risk a trade over 114-07. Support is at 112-04 and 111-24 to 111-13 then 111-08 to 111-04. The close under 112-18 was negative , another close or two under 112-18 is bearish and would indicate a decline to 111-13 /111-08 regions and eventually 110-16 below that 109-27 to 109-15 should trade.
A close over 112-18 is friendly
Stay Tuned ....
Standard and Poor's SP 500 Index Futures
Sept SP500
On the Downside, Early l support is 923.65with critical support at 915.60 to 914.00 , below that 906 to 904.40 offers support. Any sustained trade under 915.30 augurs for a pullback to 914.00. Where a bounce should occur. However A close or extended trade under 914.00 augurs for a pullback to 906 then 901.05 where traders can probe the long side, for a 'quick' bounce higher..stay tuned. Below that 900.15 then 897.90 should trade. Below that 893.40. A close under 896.40 augurs for a pull back to the 882.85 region, buy at 882.85 for a turn higher.. stay tuned. Failure there indicates a slip to 872 then 867.10 with 849.90 to 848.40 the place where traders should Buy and Hold...Below that 835.35 may trade....a close under that augurs for 811.60 to trade.
On the Upside, Resistance is at 931.10 sell at 931.60 , then 933.70 offerws selling, sell there also for a quick turn lower.stay tuned and be careful... Above that 934.70 offers Resistance . Beyond that 936.90 to 937.80 offers Resistance. Good sellers should raise their heads at 942.90 to 944.50 and 945.10. Sell at 946.90 risk a close over 952.65 for two days in a row. Above that 954.20 offers resistance , beyond that 962.80 offers resistance, Sell at 962.50 for a turn lower. Stay Tuned More sellers should appear near 966.25 where hearty traders should sell short for a turn lower, beyond that.A rally to the 993 region may occur.
Trade Accordingly
Some Traders should consider using Options or the NYFE Index at the given price levels to avoid getting your 'head chopped off' in a delirious market, be it Up or Down.
Happy Trading
Bill
8-23-1997 7:28 PM EST
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