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BI-WEEKLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
Sunday, November 24, 1996
7:41:24 AM
On the Forex Front:
The DMZ was up 5 pts on the week at 6644
Longs in the Dec D-Mark should now use a `three day' stop below 6530.Dec D-Marks' early support is near 6585/6591 where we would have buy orders early this week risking only 30 pts.. Resistance is near 6685 and the 6731/6738 region where sell orders should be placed to exit longs.
The March Swiss Franc paints an interesting picture, on the week the SFH was up 49 pts and can bes Sold near 7917 with a Risk above 7936 basis the close for two days. Support at 7856 to 7867 for next week. Resistance is near 7956 and 7967. A close over 7970 in the SFH would likely lead to a test of 8029.
The DEC B-POUND performed as we had Expected, Peaking against the 168.90 target area last Thursday. This allowed our readers a chance to Sell out before dipping about 100 pts on Friday.
Buy March British on any two or three day break into the 16622 /16640 region. Protective stops should be placed under 164.20 on a three-day basis.
The Precious or should we say `Mercurial' Metals:
Feb Gold was down almost five dollars on the week while March Silver fell over ten cents. The Best cure for low prices is low pricesWe highly recommend the purchase of Gold Calls Options for next year.Long Term Traders can purchase Gold Calls all the out to December of 1997 Pick a strike and month and Buy em, but do not spend over $ 300 to $ 400. Try to keep the Strike price no higher than $ 420 ... The more time the better.....
For the next week a close over 381.5 in Feb Gold is near term friendly
March Silver has support at 487 down to 481.5.Resistance is near 496 to 503. A close over 507 in March silver is Bullish for a move into the 521 price area. Silver in our opinion will trade above $ 5.50 during the First Half of Next Year.. Be patient and Long....
Copper an Industrial Metal was up over 300 pts last week. Our near term target for March High Grade Copper is 103.45 with an eventual target of 109/112 ....Longs in March Copper at 100.45. Use a three day stop close under 9820 SCO.Good support is near 9500 and 9625 where we would have buy orders this week.We see Copper trading into the 110 to 114 region during 1997
The Exciting Energies;
Jan Crude was down 26 cent on the week. `News' about Iraq smashed the Heat and Crude late Friday as prices plunged late in the trading session. We remain long term Bullish Crude... World Supplies may not be as abundant as we think .... Jan Crude has Support is near 2315 /2334 early this week. Have your Buy orders waiting....
Longs can use a Three Day protective stop UNDER at 2312. Resistance is near 2380 and 2412 then 2442. A close over 2423 would cause the bears to `run
.' He that Sells what isn't hisn
Must buy it back or go to prisn
January Heating Oil was up 24 pts on the week. New Longs in Jan Heat at 7245 use a 3-day stop under 6940 as protection.Resistance is near 7280 and 7335 and 7405. Support is at 7190 and 7080 and 7045.A close over 7345 Augers for a Test of 7500 to 7600....
A Gander at the Grains;
Dec Wheat firmed 13 cents during the past week. Trading as high as 421 before setting back to close a t 410 on Friday..When Dec Wheat was in the 375/385 region we were friendly, however we Do not see a good risk to reward to own 410 Wheat.However we would buy for a turn at 398 with a stop under 390 basis the close...For Monday support is at 405 3/4 to 407 and 395 to 398..Resistance is near 412 to 414 then 419 and 421 3/4. Trade accordingly
Jan Soybeans were up 12 3/4 on the week. Support is 704 1/4 then 690 to 694. Resistance remains at 718 and 732.Shorts at 700 3/4 should add on a close under 706. Use the same three day stop at 717 as protection. A close under 706 in Jan Beans is negative for a turn down to 694.
Dec Corn was up 3 cents last week Resistance is near 273 3/4 then 277/278.Buyers should appear at 268 then 264....
Softs..
March Coffee was down 480 pts last week....Longs in March Coffee should use a 105.70 disaster stop for MondaySupport is at 108.70/ 80 and 106.25. Resistance is near 110.10 and 111.25 then 11290.
March Sugar was up 30 pts last week. Longs use a three day stop under 1029 as protection. Support is at 1033/1036 where we would Buy this week with 30 pt risk..Resistance is 1070 and 1084 then 1113 where we would have sell orders to exit ...
Jan OJ was down 345 pts last week,
Buy Long near 9600 and Use a stop under 9200 basis a three day close ....Support is near 940 and 9315 resistance is at 9725 and 9890 a close over 9835 is friendly.
In the livestock Sector
Cattle on Feed was deemed to be Bearish by most tradersDec cattle is expected to open 30 to 50 lower on Monday. Feb Cattle is called to open 70 lower..
Last week Dec Cattle allowed us to sell all remaining longs from 6550 to 6600easily into the targeted 6750 /6800 region. Dec Cattle has support at 6670 to 6640 then 6595 and 6555. Resistance is near 6745 and 6775.. The Chart looks ugly but we would sell only Rallies in Feb......
Jan Feeder Cattle was down 167 pts last week.Support is near 6475 and 6432 Resistance is 6575 and 6652 trade accordingly.
In the Bellies... last week Feb Bellies were dn 360 pts...
The sometimes Cruel USDA Cold Storage Report issued Friday for Pork Bellies was deemed Neutral to bearish.....
OCT 1995 SEPT 1996 OCT 1996
Frozen Stocks of Bellies 13,478 12,702 16,206 128 %
Since the report came in at the high end of the estimated range traders expectFeb Bellies to open 50 lower on Monday, with a few calling for 100 lower. February Pork Bellies support starts 7482 Where we would have orders to cover remaining shorts.If Feb Bellies close under 7300 next week the likely near term downside target is under 70 cents ...trade accordingly. We prefer to be safe and sell rallies then buy dips. However the Long Term picture may even be worse than most traders think.
Dec Hogs were 67 pts last week. Support is at 5760 then 5712/5722 Resistance is near 5812 and 5855.
Feb Lean Hogs were 62 lower last week.Support is at 7622/7590 with more support at 7537. Resistance is near 7690 and 7757.
Sell June Hogs next week near 7527 to 7550 if able risk a three day close over 7670...
We still feel Hogs in General will be much lower `down the road `
Dec Bonds were up 12 tics last week. The rally seems to have stalled for the momentSupport is near 114-22 down to 114-10/12 region Resistance is near 115-12 and 115-16 with heavy sellers waiting at 116-10 to 116-12
A close under 115-08 is negative and we would be short for a turn towards 114-12.The Dow and other averages leaped again last week..The DJIA has Resistance at 6483 to 6509 with more at 6543 then 6577 to 6591.Support will appear at 6430 and 6417.
Monday the Dec SP500 has support at 74960 /74925 then 747.85 more support will appear near 745.95 and 743.55 down to 742.80.A close under 745 is negative. Resistance is near 751.55 754.55 and 755.60.Targets on continued strength are 758.60 to 759.55 then 765 to 773.20
I wish everybody a Safe and Happy Thanksgiving Week
Happy Trading
Bill