2-21-2001

7:39 AM 

Market Musings...

Last month the PPI surged a bit, due mostly on high energy costs,

Particularly Natural Gas. (and Cigarettes for traders to smoke while worrying about the mkt)

The high prices of Nat Gas (near 10.00 during Nov and Dec)  hit Gov't figures during Jan...

causing News followers and many economist to imply that inflation is now a problem as they nervously await the CPI data…

NOT likely, as most of those boys are like weatherman .. PAID  to be wrong and not likely to stick their neck out .. !!!

Consider this, in the last month Nat Gas Futures have somewhat fallen out of bed..

just think about it .. the big story at years end was the rally in Nat gas to 10.00 , well today it sits at 5.35ish for March.

As Traders we need to see clearly beyond the noise and look what is really happening....

to me those inflation pressures are relatively non-existent and should in no way cause the Fed to change it’s rate reduction plans ..

In fact I would be so bold to say, an aggressive rate reduction posture will be forthcoming shortly

As the ‘powers that be’ attempt to stabilize the economy.

Happy Trading

Bill

2-21-2001