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Special Lean Hog Outlook 8-20-2000
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“There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side." --Jesse Livermore—         

 8-20-2000 12:45 PM
Hog Outlook :

After the close on Friday the USDA released the Monthly Cold Storage Report
Frozen Belly Stocks came in at 50.5 Mil pounds, the high end of estimates…
Considering that Pork Bellies have fallen roughly 700 pts since Mid July this is

No Surprise…

According to the group of analysts regularly quoted by the News wires, upward revisions in Ham and total pork stocks should provide a slightly bearish taint to the Hog market. Again NO Surprise, Oct Hogs have fallen roughly 500 pts or so since mid July.. While the August went off the Board this month substantially under the Mid July price Region….

 Curiously  After the July Cold Storage report came out last month some of those same quoted analysts were Bullish for a bit of a rally.. Markets are funny..

 Here is my take on the current situation…

Typically hogs make a seasonal low during the later part of August into the first  as increased supplies normally come to the market.. Then rally a bit into the last week of September…  

Again Technically speaking , October Hogs recently fell apart as the bulls scurried to exit longs and get then put shorts on.  However Oct Hogs  managed to ‘put in’ what I would consider a somewhat powerful technical pattern late last week.. An Island reversal…if it holds…

 So now , we have the News as Bearish after a sharp decline.. Funds and Quoted analysts who were bullish are now bearish.. all the while a bit of professional buying caught the hogs last week in the throes of a sharp sell off and managed an island reversal… Interesting …
 I suggest traders pay attention to the old adage of Buying the rumor and selling the Fact, and Visa Versa.. Now I am not suggesting the hogs are going to take off and never decline in fact if they rally 250 pts our BW goes short for a turn.

What I am saying, is that in my opinion a move in a higher direction is more likely to occur than not …

Today’s Bi-Weekly has recommended Buy and Sell Levels for Hogs  , Stay Tuned
For additional updates..

A Ship In Harbor Does Not Sail..

Happy Trading

Bill

8-20-2000

1:45 PM