THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

FUTURESCOM
                                          
                                
SPECIAL REPORT:Coffee
 COMMODITY OUTLOOK
   
6TH OCTOBER 1996


A market to keep a close eye on is Coffee. 
The recent wide swing Coffee has had over the last Two months paints
 a interesting picture.
 Roasters are Gearing up for heavy winter consumption by aggressively
 buying coffee futures. The bull spreads improved along with the general 
market..
The Shortage of quality coffee is exacerbated by 
Political Unrest in COLUMBIA, the world’s 2nd largest COFFEE EXPORTER.
According to our sources in Columbia, guerrillas have been 
hijacking and burning trucks in the rural coffee growing regions. 
The US stockpile of coffee now stands at a historic low of 
1.8 million bags. The Five year average is about six million! 
Commercial interests are most likely waiting for a dip into the 103/105  area before purchasing additional contracts.
Technically speaking a reversal buy signal occurred
 on Oct 1 when DEC Coffee Closed over the 104.10. 
The recent rally stopped at 110.20 
on Friday where a Fib arc lies at 110.50.
 Now we all know Coffee is not for everyone.
A suggested mid term  strategy would include buying DEC futures
 and selling the March Calls. 
Taking advantage of Bull Spreading and offering 
 some protection via the Short March Calls, 
 purchases should can made during periods of weakness. 

Longer Term analysis suggest the coffee may
 extend a rally into the DEC / Jan time frame. IF IT HOLDS. 


Happy Trading

Bill

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