FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 409 Sunday November 18 2012 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2 .
11:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
“Observation. Experience, memory and mathematics- These are what a successful trader must depend on. A man can have great mathematical ability and unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also possesses the experience and memory”
-Reminiscences of a Stock operator-
All U.S Exchange Floors are closed on Thursday for the U.S Thanksgiving Holiday electronic markets will be open for a portion of the holiday. We wish everyone a Safe and Happy Holiday!
Back in March I made a statement while hosting the Bill Chippas Show that we should see 3 to 5 Quarters of sideways to down in the stock market and pretty much that’s what we have seen. During this quarter the Dow Jones Industrial Average has exceeded both the high and low of last quarter, investors should remain nimble, keep positions light going into the Thanksgiving holiday but be willing to use the wild swings to make short term trades. Therefore, traders should begin to see ‘Day Trade Flashes’ once again from us and treat them as short term trades.
So much for the old adage ‘never fight the Fed’ …the post-election Five Day performance of US Equities was one the worst (if not the worst for the past 50 years). The SP500 peak on election eve is almost exactly the same levels where it peaked in 2000 before plunging post-election and eventually leading to a decline that was surpassed only during the credit crisis.
Friday’s bounce may have felt good and a low may be in-place against our 1346 to 1334 level in SP500 Futures, but the technical damage is broad. Since the election the Dow Utility Index has fallen apart at the seams, finally finding some support at unchanged on the year. The transportation Index is lower on the year and is in a broad sideways pattern. The Nasdaq Composite is still up on the year, as are the Dow and SP500. The Russell 2000 is also up a tad on the year, all are under stress and have exceeded the October Lows, something that is not supposed to occur if year-end is going to be exceedingly strong considering Thanksgiving is around the corner.
The dollar closed better last week and indicates higher prices, we remain broadly dollar friendly and will stay that way, no change in posture, however some backing and filling is due thus trades for both sides to may come into play now.. Canadian Dollar and Aussie Dollar are a trading affair and appear to be eroding a bit, the same goes for the Kiwi. Cable fell a bit, support remains near 15760 to 15690 and should hold for now and offer a trade against that level. Buy dips in the Dollar, Dollar/ Yen and Sell yen futures on Rallies. Sell euro and Swiss Francs on rallies and look for a range lower and still lower prices into spring. Stay tuned for Forex flashes.
Geo-political worries can build quickly for energy markets. Use the volatility for trade crude and products during the sessions. Be prepared to Buy dips and sell rallies. Our analysis will roll forward now for metals and treasuries, both complexes offer trading chances especially with all the news coming out regarding Fiscal cliffs and so on.
Soybeans and its products are a mess, Wheat hit a peak and dropped faster than we wanted to see and is now testing minor support and lower prices may still be in front of the market sell a rally.
Seasonally Cattle prices and tend to firm into the end of the month, then prices tend to get soft into mid-December, that said, Cattle acts ok, but never reached our buy region for December futures , retail beef prices remain high for a consumer facing a plethora of issues, so the upside may be limited for now. Selling Feb Cattle near month end should work. Ditto for pork, Pork Prices at the retail level have moved primarily in a sideways pattern since May of 2011. With sharply higher feed costs that producers have had to tend with over the last several month consumers must be willing to pay more for pork in the next few months if hog prices are to rise to a profitable level for producers, and that’s a big if. Seasonally hogs tend to firm a bit into the end of November then soften into mid to late December, if that occurs February should lose some of its premium to cash, while the back end should hold fairly well against it .. Traders can Buy Dec Hogs and Sell Feb Hogs on the Open Monday for a trade. Also Buy June and Sell Feb hogs for a longer term seasonal trade into January. Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes and Updates. On to the Nitty Gritty
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near the 12,380.00 to 12,320.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 12,030.00 to 11,920.00, and should contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 12,680.00 to 12,740.00 and 12,890.00 beyond that sellers should appear near the 13,100.00 to 13,040.00 region and cap a rally,
DECEMBER E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 1377.00 to 1383.00 and 1399. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 1415.00 to 1421.00 region.
Support should appear near 1346.00 to 1334.00, below that buyers should appear near 1322.00 which should contain a decline, failure there is negative and augurs for a test of the 1310.00 to 1304.00 region.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 2874.00 to 2883.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 2928.00 to 2937.00 and the 2972.00 to 2900.00 region.
Support should appear near 2829.00 to 2820.00, below that a test of 2775.00 to 2758.00 is likely.
Failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 2724.00 to 2716.00.
DECEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near the 2519.00 to 2511.00, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 2469.00 to 2461.00 region. Under that buyers should appear near 2419.00 to 2411.00
Resistance should appear near 2552.00 to 2568.00 and 2612.00 to 2620.00 which should cap a rally. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2662.00 to 2673.00.
DECEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 776.30 to 777.70 and 783.60 to 786.40 region. Beyond that 793.90 to 795.40 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near the 760.10 to 759.70, failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 742.80 to 741.40 and the 734.20 to 732.80 region, which should hold for now..
MARCH 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 151-21 and 152-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 152-21and 153-07. Above that 153-21 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 150-21 and 150-07, below that a test of 149-21 and 149-07is likely and should hold.
MARCH 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 134-07 and 134-21, beyond that 135-07 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 133-07 and 132-21. Below that a test of 132-07 is likely and should hold.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
DECEMBER DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8134, A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8194 to 8223. Support should appear near 8119 and 8044 to 8029. Traders can buy at 8087 and hold for higher prices. Risk a close under 8027. Below that buyers should appear near the 7954 to 7939 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 8137 occurs.
DECEMBER JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 12320 to 12380 and 12530. Traders can sell at 12527 and hold for lower prices…
Support should appear near 12177 and the 12030 to 11920 region. Aggressive traders should consider going short if a close under 12247 occurs. Stay tuned for flashes
DECEMBER EURO CURRENCY
Support remains near the 12740 to 12680 region. A close under is negative and augurs for an eventual test 12605. Below that buyers should appear near 12530.
Resistance should appear near 12890 and 12967, beyond that sellers should appear near the 13040 to 13100 region. Traders can sell at 12887 and risk a close over 12967 for three days in a row.
DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10580 to 10680 and 10815. .
Support should appear near 10470. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 10360 to 10320 region. Trade Accordingly
DECEMBER BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near the 15760 to 15690 region. Traders can buy at 15770 and risk a close under 15687 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near 15927. Traders can sell at 15922 for a trade and risk a close over 16017… Beyond that 16090 to 16150 should cap a rally. .
DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10021 to 10037, which should cap an early rally, beyond that sellers should appear near 10104 to 10136.
Support should appear near 9937 to 9921 and the 9837 to 9821 region.
DECEMBER AUSSIE DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10320 to 10360. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10470 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 10237, below that a test of 10185 and the 10136 to 10104 is likely.
Trade Accordingly and stay tuned for Forex Flashes ….
THE PRECIOUS METALS
FEBRUARY GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1731.0 to 1738.0. Beyond that sellers should appear near
1756.0 and the 1774.0 to 1780.0 region.
Support is near 1696.00 to 1689.00 failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 1655.0 to 1642.0.
MARCH COPPER
Resistance should appear near 34930 to 35030 and the 35530 to 35630 region. Beyond that sellers should appear 36130 to 36230 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 34430 to 34250, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 33860 to 33770 and eventually the 33280 to 33190 region is likely and should attract buyers. Traders can buy at 33300 and risk a close under 33100 for three days in a row.
MARCH SILVER
Resistance should appear near 3319 to 3328 and the 3377 to 3386 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3425 to 3443 and cap a rally.
Support is at 3213 to 3194, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 3157 to 3148, below that buyers should appear near 3045 to 3036.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
JANUARY CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near the 8762 to 8777 region, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8934 to 8964 and the 9044 to 9060 region, which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 8589 to 8560 and the 8406 to 8391region. Below that buyers should appear near 8044 to 8029.
JANUARY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 29370 to 29280 and 28830 to 28740. Below that 28290 to 28200 should bring in buyers and contain a decline. Traders can buy at 28300 for a bounce and hold for higher. prices.
Resistance should appear near the 30360 to 30450 region. Beyond sellers should appear near 30920 to 31020. Above that a test of 31480 to 31570 is likely.
JANUARY UNLEADED GAS
Resistance should appear near 27580 to 27750 and the 28200 to 28290 region.
Support should appear near 26720 to 26630 and 26200 to 26120. Below that buyers should appear near 25680 to 25520… Stay tuned for Flashes
JANUARY NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 3982 to 3992 and 4046 to 4056. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4110 to 4120 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 3806 to 3795 and 3743 to 3734. Below that buyers should appear near 33682 to 3663 and contain a decline.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JANUARY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1346 to 1334 and the 1310 to 1304 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 1274 to 1268.
Resistance should appear near 1415 to 1421 and the 1453 to 1459 region.
DECEMBER SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 4775 to 4785 and the 4845 to 4856 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 4915 to 4926 region.
Support should appear near 4582 to 4571 and the 4446 to 4425 region. .
DECEMBER SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 437.0 to 431.5 and the 442.5 to 444.6 region.
Support should appear near 418.3 to 416.3 and the 412.0 to 411.0 region. Below that a test of 399.2 to 398.2 is likely.
MARCH CORN
Support should appear near 717 to 714 ¾ then 708 ¾ to 707 ½ and the 691 ¾ to 690 ¾ region.
Resistance should appear near 741 ½ to 742 ¾ and the 748 ¾ to 751 ¾ region.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 776 ¾ to 777 ¾ and cap a rally.
MARCH WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 876 ½ to 877 ¾ and 885 ¾ to 887 ¼ which should cap a rally.
Traders can sell at 876 and hold for lower prices, risk a close over 888 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 849 ¾ to 848 ½… Below that buyers should appear near 831 ½ to 830 and the 804 ½ to 804 region.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
DECEMBER CATTLE
Support should appear near 12530, below that a test of the12380 to 12320 region is likely.
Resistance should appear near 12740 and 12890. Beyond that 1340 to 13100 should cap a rally
FEBRUARY CATTLE
Support should appear near 12892 and the12742 to 12677 region.
Resistance should appear near 13040 to 13100 and 13220
DECEMBER HOGS
Support should appear near 8027 and the 7957 to 7937 region. Below that buyers should appear near 7867 to 7837. Traders can buy at 7962 and risk a close under 7932 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear 8192 to 8223 and the 8300 to 8317 region.
FEBRUARY HOGS
Resistance should appear near 8772 to 8777 and the 8867 to 8887 region.
Support should appear near 8592 to 8562 and the 8502 to 8497 region.
Aggressive Traders should go short if a close under 8557 occurs.
Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes and Updates.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MARCH COFFEE
Support should appear near 14960 to 14840 and the 14210 to 14150 region.
Resistance should appear near 15690 to 15760, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 16090 to 16150… Trade accordingly…
Stay tuned for Flashes and Trade accordingly
MARCH COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2411 to 2419 and the 2511 to 2519 region… Beyond that sellers should appear near 2552 to 2568 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 2370 to 2354 and the 2322 to 2315 region. Below that a test of 2275 to 2267 is likely.
MARCH SUGAR
Support is at 1909 to 1902 and the 1865 to 1858 region… Under that buyers should appear near 1822 to 1808
Resistance should appear near 1982 to 1996 and 2034 to 2042, beyond that 2080 to 2089 should cap a rally.
MARCH COTTON
Support should appear near 7170 to 7143 and the 7088 to 7074 region.
Resistance is near 7328 to 7342 and 7414 to 7428. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7763 to 7777 and cap a rally.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for —
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday November 18, 2012
1:45 PM ET South Florida Beach Time
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FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 409 Sunday November 18, 2012 Equity Indices – Treasuries – Currency Trading – Forex – Precious Metals – Energy – Grains – Livestock – Softs Comments
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