FuturesCom  Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 410 Sunday December 02 2012  SP500 and  Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee •  Sugar • Cocoa  • Cotton.  Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2 . 

“There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.”       –Jesse Livermore–

     Saturday December 01, 2012
10:00 PM South Florida Beach Time

 

 

We are rolling analysis to March Forex in this letter, Indices will roll later this week.  Stay tuned for Flashes in All Markets. The Nasdaq Composite is up on the year, as are the Dow, SP500 and Russell 2000. However only 3 times in the last 25 years or so has the Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeded the lows in October that is before this year’s performance. Those were 1991 and 2007 and 2008, 1991 was in the midst of a secular bull market, we know what happened in 2009 it fell further into spring and  2008 was a mess. So caution remains even though typically the Indices act well for a rally into year end and Christmas. Our Job is to listen and the message is now a tad cloudy. This week Investors will be watching for Unemployment Data and Central Bank comments, along with constant chatter about the fiscal cliff.  Traders should remain nimble, but we do expect more Fed QE comments and more additions to its balance sheet, what the markets do with all the news is something only the markets know.

The dollar closed a tad higher on the month, lower on the week, we remain broadly dollar friendly with backing and filling, thus trades for both sides. Buy dips in Dollar/ Yen and Sell yen futures on Rallies. Canadian Dollar and Aussie Dollar are a trading affair and subject to news and babble, the same goes for Kiwi. Euro and Swiss Francs remain rang bound we would still look for lower prices into spring after a peak in December. Stay tuned for Forex flashes.
Use the volatility for trade crude and products during the sessions, typically heating oil rises into the end of December, buy a dip. Be prepared to Buy dips and sell rallies in metals as the markets decide which way they want to go.. Ditto for treasuries, both complexes offer trading chances especially with all the news coming out. Global Copper consumption is still positive and climbing a bit., Copper acts better and is worth keeping an eye on for both longs and shorts as it continues  to chop in its range and currently a tad higher on the year.
Soybeans and its products rallied and then set back, traders should look for a sideways to lower.
Stay tuned for Corn and Soybean Complex Flashes.  Wheat ran into a wall and closed lower on Friday, lower prices may still be in front of the market sell a rally. Cattle prices closed sharply lower on Friday. Seasonally Cattle and Pork tend to get soft into Mid December. Sell Feb Hogs on the Open Monday.  Traders can also Buy a Sharp pullback in July Hogs and June Hogs but not for a couple weeks , buying post mid-month would be desirable..  Also Buy June and Sell Feb hogs for a longer term seasonal trade into January.  Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes and Updates. We will keep Hog spreads as a separate item in the position listing and will let them work longer if able.. All the Softs look to be stuck in trading range for now, seasonally Sugar tends rise a bit in early December before acting like garbage in January. Coffee is range bound but should see some support in this region. Selling Cocoa in December tends to lead to lower prices in January.
On to the Nitty Gritty

  

                                          THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near the 12,8900 and the 12,740.00 to 12,680.00 region.
Resistance should appear near the 13,100.00 to 13,040.00 region .Beyond that sellers should appear near the 13,3400 to 13,460.00 region and cap a rally.

DECEMBER E-MINI SP500
Resistance remains near the 1415.00 to 1421.00 region. Beyond that a trade towards 1437 and the 1454 to 1459 is likely. Above that sellers should appear near 1484.00 to 1496.00 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 1399.00 and the 1383.00 to 1374.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1346.00 to 1334.00 which should contain a decline, failure there is negative and augurs for a test of the 1310.00 to 1304.00 region.
Pick Your Poison…

NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 3036.00 to 3045.00, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 3092.00 to 3102.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3148.00 to 3157.00 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 2990.00 to 2972.00 , a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 2938.00 to 2937.00, below that buyers should appear near 2883.00 to 2874.00 and contain a decline.

 

DECEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 2672.00 to 2663.00 and the 2620.00 to 2512.00 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 2568.00 to 2552.00 region. Under that buyers should appear near the 2519.00 to 2511.00 region.
Resistance should appear near 2716.00 to 2724.00, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of
2758.00 to 2775.00, beyond that sellers should appear near 2820.00 to 2829.00

DECEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000

Resistance should appear near 830.00 to 831.40 and the 856.00 to 858.90 region
Support should appear near 813.40 to 811.909 and the 804.40 to 802.90 region, failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 795.40 to 793.90..

MARCH 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near  150-07 and 151-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near
152-21and 153-07. Above that 153-21 should cap a rally.

Support should appear near 150-07, below that a test of 149-21 and 149-07 is likely and should hold.

MARCH 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 134-07 and 134-21, beyond that 135-07 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 133-07 and 132-21. Below that a test of 132-07 is likely and should hold.
       

 

                                                    THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT

MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8044 and 8119 to 8134region.  A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8194 to 8223.
Support should appear near 7991 and the 7954 to 7939 region. Below that buyers should appear near 7902 .. Traders can buy at 7957 and hold for higher prices.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 12175 and the 12320 to 12380 region. Traders can sell at 12173 and hold for lower prices…
Support should appear near the 12030 to 11920 region and should hold , failure here augurs for a test of 11805.  Stay tuned for flashes

MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 12890 and the 12740 to 12680 region.
Resistance should appear near the 13040 to 13100 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13220 and the 13340 to 13460 region..

MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10815 and the 10960 to 11010 region.
Support should appear near 10750 below that a test of 10680 to 10580 is likely.
Trade Accordingly

 

MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 15922 and the 15760 to 15690 region.
Resistance should appear near 16017… Beyond that 16090 to 16150 should cap a rally.
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance remains near 10104 to 10136 and 10175, beyond that 10320 to 10360 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 10037 to 10021 and the 9937 to 9921 region. Traders can buy at 9942 for a bounce and risk a close under 9918 for three days in a row.

MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10360 then 10415 and 10470, beyond that, sellers should appear near 10580 to 10680.. Traders can sell at 10577 and risk a close over 10687 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 10320 , a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10237, below that a buyers should appear near 10185 and the 10136 to 10104.

Trade accordingly and stay tuned for Forex Flashes ….

            THE PRECIOUS METALS

FEBRUARY GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1731.0 to 1738.0. Beyond that sellers should appear near
1756.0 and the 1774.0 to 1780.0 region.
Support is near 1696.00 to 1689.00 failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 1655.0 to 1642.

MARCH COPPER
Resistance should appear near 36630 to 36820 and the 37340 to 37450 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 37950 to 38060.
Support should appear near 36230 to 36130 and the 35630 to 35530 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 35030 to 34930 and should attract buyers.

MARCH SILVER
Resistance should appear near the 3377 to 3386 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3425 to 3443 and the 3493 to 3507 region.
Support is at 3213 to 3194, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 3157 to 3148, below that buyers should appear near 3102 to 3092.

 

 

THE EXCITING ENERGIES
JANUARY CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 8934 to 8964 and the 9044 to 9060 region, which should cap a rally.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 9140 to 9156.
Support should appear near 8871 to 8856 and the 8777 to 8762 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8683 to 8668.

JANUARY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 30450 to 30360 and the 29900 to 29720 region. Below that 29370 to 29280 should bring in buyers and contain a decline.  Traders can buy at 29400 for a bounce and hold for higher. prices.
Resistance should appear near the 30920 to 31020. Above that a test of 31480 to 31570 is likely.

JANUARY UNLEADED GAS
Resistance should appear near 27580 to 27750 and the 28200 to 28290 region.

Support should appear near 26720 to 26630 and 26200 to 26120. Below that buyers should appear near 25680 to 25520… Stay tuned for Flashes

JANUARY NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 3613 to 3623 and the 3663 to 3682 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3734 to 3743 and the 3858 to 3867 region.
Support should appear near 3443 to 3425 and the 3386 to 3377 region. Below that buyers should appear near 3157 to 3148

THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JANUARY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1421 to 1415 and the 1383 to 1377 region .
Resistance should appear near 1453 to 1459 and the 1484 to 1496 region.

JANUARY SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 5056 to 5067 and the 5127 to 5139 region.  Beyond that sellers should appear near the 5200 to 5211region.
Support should appear near 4926 to 4915 and the 4856 to 4845 region.

 

JANUARY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 437.0 to 431.5 and the 442.5 to 444.6 region.
Support should appear near 418.3 to 416.3 and the 412.0 to 411.0 region. .

 

MARCH CORN
Support should appear near 751 ¾ to 748 ¾ and the 742 ¾ to 741 ½ region.
Below that a test of 734 ¼ to 732 ¾ is likely.. Under that buyers should appear near 717 to 714 ¼.
Resistance should appear near 758 ¾ to 760 ¼ and the 776 ¾ to 777 ¾  region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 783 ¾ to 786 ½ and cap a rally.

MARCH WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 876 ½ to 877 ¾ and 885 ¾ to 887 ¼ , beyond that sellers should appear near 893 ½ to 896 ½.

Support should appear near 858 ¾ to 856 and the 849 ¾ to 848 ½ region. Below that buyers should appear near 831 ½ to 830.
Stay Tuned for Grain Flashes

 

THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
FEBRUARY CATTLE

Support should appear near 13040 and 12957.  Below that a test of 12820 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 13100 and 13157.. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13220.
Sell a two day rally …

APRIL CATTLE

Support should appear near 13340 and 13220.. Below that buyers should appear near 13100 to 13040

Resistance should appear near 13460 and 13617 .. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13770 to 13830

 

FEBRUARY HOGS

Resistance should appear near 8772 to 8777 and the 8867 to 8887 region.

Support should appear near 8682 to 8667 and 8592 to 8562.. Below that a test of the 8502 to 8497 region is likely.. Aggressive Traders should go short if a close under 8657 occurs.

APRIL HOGS

Support should appear near 9157 to 9137 and the 9062 to 9042 region .  Below that buyers should appear near 8967 to 8937.
Resistance should appear 9300 to 9317, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 9427 to 9447 and the 9527 to 9542 region.      Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes and Updates.

 

THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MARCH COFFEE
Support should appear near 14960 to 14840 and the 14210 to 14150 region.
Resistance should appear near 15290 to 15350 and 15690 to 15760, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of   16090 to 16150… Trade accordingly .

Stay tuned for Flashes and Trade accordingly

MARCH COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2511 to 2519 and the 2552 to 2568 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2612 to 2620.. Traders can sell at 2609 and hold for lower prices. Risk a close over 2622 for three days in a row

Support should appear near 2469 to 2461 and the 2419 to 2411 region. Below that buyers should appear near  2370 to 2354..

MARCH SUGAR
Support is at 1909 to 1902 and the 1865 to 1858 region… Under that buyers should appear near 1822 to 1808
Resistance should appear near 1982 to 1996 and 2034 to 2042, beyond that 2080 to 2089 should cap a rally. Traders can Sell at 2032 and risk a close over 2091 for three days in a row.

MARCH COTTON
Support should appear near 7170 to 7143 and the 7088 to 7074 region. Below that a test of 7003 to 6990 is likely.
Resistance is near 7414 to 7428. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7763 to 7777 and cap a rally.
Traders can sell at 7755 and Hold for lower prices..
 

                               Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets    

–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for —
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday December 2, 2012
12:00 Noon South Florida Beach Time 

 

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FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 410  Sunday December 02, 2012 Equity Indices – Treasuries – Currency Trading – Forex – Precious Metals – Energy – Grains – Livestock – Softs Comments

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