FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 412 Tuesday January 01 2013 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2 .
“Years of practice at the game, of constant study, of always remembering, enables the trader to act when the unexpected happens as well as when the expected comes to pass. A man can have great mathematical ability and unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also possesses the experience and memory” -Reminiscences of a Stock operator -1929
Monday December 31, 2012
10:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
This is the first Bi-Weekly Outlook of 2013 and begins the 17th full year of FuturesCom’s Bi-Weekly Investment Outlooks. In March of 2012 we began our stand alone Forex trading program so what’s new for 2013? Traders should look for numerous Day Trades for both Futures and Forex during 2013.
Considering that day trades at times may differ in posture from positions, day trades should be exited at the end of the trading session. This should keep position trades as positions and day trades as day trades. For example if an index trade is entered at 6:00 PM Eastern time, the trading session ends the following day at 4:15 PM EST. If a sugar trade is entered at 6 AM it should be closed out before 2:00 PM. If a Corn trade is entered at 8 PM it should be closed out by 3:00 PM the following day. Every effort on our part will be to exit trades before the session ends, if no flash is sent before the session ends, the day trade should be exited at the end of the session. Every effort will be made to exit Forex Day trades during a 24 hour period. All day trades will be tracked and results posted in a timely manner on the website.
The US Equity market closed the year on a positive note after the Christmas Rally turned into a Christmas debacle. Equity and Index traders should be prepared to play both sides of what may continue to be a range bound choppy stock market primarily driven by government policy, as governments around the world become a larger percentage of economies world markets will be more and more policy driven. Policies change, news comes out and investors scurry around like chickens with their heads cut off, therefore it’s best to just let the markets tell us what to do.
The Japanese Yen closed the year on its lows, conversely Dollar Yen closed on its highs. Traders should buy dips in Dollar Yen, selling Yen futures on Rallies. The Canadian Dollar and Aussie Dollar have both dipped over the last two weeks. Euro, Swiss Francs and Cable have all pushed marginally higher Typically the US Dollar can head a bit higher into early February, so we expect to see some pressure in Euro, it would be good thing for the ECB to begin to advocate some weakening of the currency for export growth to advance the weakest parts of the euro zone rather than have a weak euro come as a result of more damage to the economies of Greece, Spain and the rest
Crude Oil is typically sloppy to weak after the turn of the New Year and makes a low in mid-February.
The big story concerning rising US production should generally keep a lid on prices, but that ‘Lid ’may be well above current levels. Traders should look for problems in the Mideast to flare up once again this spring; therefore we prefer to buy crude and its products on weakness as we move into February.
Gold and silver appear to be trying to find a trading low, however they remain below all time highs and it appears the Twelve year run in the metals appears a bit tired. That said there appears to be no end in sight to the US Federal Reserve quantitative easing so a resumption of the uptrend may occur at anytime.
Wheat pushed lower again last week and eventually lower prices may still be in front of the market. Traders can sell a sharp rally, but look for a trade from the long side for short term trading. Seasonally Corn can sustain a rally however treat it as a trading affair. Corn bounced after making a test of its early harvest lows and then gave up those levels, normally corn will tend to stay at or above the harvest lows as we head into March and so far that has not happened. Soy Oil tends to test the soybean harvest lows into late January, as do Soybeans.
Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes and updates as we grind out trades in all markets without regards to ‘news of the day’. Livestock Markets remain pricey however typically buying August Hogs now yield higher prices down the road but it’s a trading affair. The Pig Crop report was deemed negative however February Hogs closed day well off its lows and above the open. Live Cattle appears to be stuck in a 300 to 500 point range and we will treat it as such.
Coffee remains under pressure, seasonally higher prices are normally in front of coffee during January thru February and it usually does not peak until we see the Ides of March, for now coffee continues to be a trading affair. Sugar and Cocoa tend take out or test December and November lows in January, thus we would avoid the long side except for a short term trade and prefer to sell rallies. Cotton is washing between the high 70’s and low 70’s and it also appears to be trading affair.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near 13,040.00 and the 12,740.00 to 12,680.00 region .Below that a test of 12,380.00 to 12,320.00 is likely to occur.
Resistance should appear near the 13,340.00 to 13,460.00 and the 13,770.00 to 13,830.00 region which should cap a rally.
MARCH E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear 1437 and the 1454 to 1459 region. Above that sellers should appear near 1484.00 to 1496.00 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near1399.00 and the 1383.00 to 1374.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1346.00 to 1334.00 which should contain a decline, failure there is negative and augurs for a test of the 1310.00 to 1304.00 region. …Pick Your Poison…
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 3036.00 to 3045.00, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 3092.00 to 3102.00 and the 3148.00 to 3157.00 region, where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 2990.00 to 2972.00 and 2938.00 to 2937.00, below that buyers should appear near 2883.00 to 2874.00 and contain a decline. Failure there augurs for a test of the 2829.00 to 2820.00 region.
MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 2620.00 to 2612.00 and the 2568.00 to 2552.00 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 2519.00 to 2511.00 region. Below that a test of the 2469.00 to 2461.00 region is likely.
Resistance should appear near 2663.00 to 2672.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2716.00 to 2724.00, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 2758.00 to 2775.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2820.00 to 2829.00.
MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near the 856.00 to 858.90 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 866.80 to 868.30 region and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 840.60 to 839.90 and the 831.40 to 830.00 region, below that a test of 813.40 to 811.909 and the 804.40 to 802.90 region is likely. .
MARCH 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 148-21 and 149-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near
150-07 and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 146-21 and 146-07, which should hold for now. Failure there augurs for a test of 145-21.
MARCH 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 133-07 and 133-21, beyond that 134-07 and 134-21 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 131-21 and 131-07, below that a test of 130-21 is likely and should bring in buyers.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8029 to 8044, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 8119 to 8134 region.
Support should appear near 7954 to 7939 region. Below that buyers should appear near 7902 and the 7864 to 7834 region. Traders can buy at 7867 and hold for higher prices. Initially traders should plan on a risk if a close under 7827 occurs for three days in a row.
Traders should go long if a close over 8045 occurs.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 11640 to 11690 and 11805. Traders can sell at 11637 and hold for lower prices…
Support should appear near the 11500 failure there is negative and augurs for a test of the 11360 to 11300 region.
Traders should go short if a close under 11500 occurs.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near the 13100 to 13040 region. Below that a test of 12890 is likely to occur.
Resistance should appear near the 13340 to 13460 region. Traders can sell at 13337 and risk a close over 13467 for three days in a row. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13770 to 13830.
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010, Traders can sell at 10957 and hold for lower prices. Risk a close over 11017 for three days in a row. Beyond that sellers should appear near 11155 and the 11300 to 11360 region.
Support should appear near 10820, below that a test of 10680 to 10580 is likely.
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 16090 a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 15922 and eventually the 15760 to 15690 region.
Resistance should appear near 16287 and the 16420 to 16550 region.
Trade accordingly and stay tuned for Flashes
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10037 and the 10104 to 10136 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10175 and the 10320 to 10360 region, which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 9937 to 9921 and the 9837 to 9821 region.
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10360 and the 10580 to 10680 region.
Support should appear near 10237 and the 10136 to 10104 region
THE PRECIOUS METALS
FEBRUARY GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1689 to 1696 and the 1731 to 1738 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1756.0 and the 1774.0 to 1780.0 region.
Support is near 1655 to 1642. Below that a trade towards 1615 to 1609 is likely.
MARCH COPPER
Resistance should appear near the 37340 to 37450 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 37950 to 38060.
Support should appear near 36230 to 36130 and the 35630 to 35530 region.
MARCH SILVER
Resistance should appear near 3092 to 3102 and the 3148 to 3157 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3261 to 3270.
Support is at 2990 to 2972 and 2927 to 2928 region. Below that buyers should appear near 2882 to 2874 and the 2829 to 2820 region.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
FEBRUARY CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 9316 to 9347 and the 9706 to 9737 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9921 to 9937 which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 8964 to 8934 and the 8777 to 8762 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8683 to 8668 and the 8314 to 8300 region.
FEBRUARY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 29900 to 29720 and the 29370 to 29280 region, which should bring in buyers and contain a decline. Traders can buy at 29410 for a bounce and hold for higher prices.
Below that support should appear near 28830 to 28740.
Resistance should appear near 30450, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 30920 to 31020 region. Above that a trade towards 31480 to 31570 is likely.
FEBRUARY UNLEADED GAS
Resistance should appear near 28120 to 28200, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 28830 to 28740 and eventually the 29280 to 29370 region.
Support should appear near 27240 to 27160 and the 26720 to 26630 region. Below that buyers should appear near 26200 to 26120. Traders can buy at 26220 and hold for higher prices..
Stay tuned for Flashes
FEBRUARY NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 3425 to 3443 and 3553 to 3563. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 3663 to 3682 region.
Support should appear near 3157 to 3148 and the 2990 to 2972 region.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MARCH SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1383 to 1374 and the 1346 to 1334 region.
Resistance should appear near 1415 to 1421 and the 1454 to 1459 region, which should cap a rally.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 1484 to 1496.
MARCH SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 5056 to 5067 and the 5127 to 5139 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 5200 to 5211region.
Support should appear near 4926 to 4915 and the 4856 to 4845 region.
MARCH SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 431.5 to 430.6 and 442.5 to 444.6. Beyond that sellers should appear near 457.1 to 458.2 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 418.3 to 416.3 and the 412.0 to 411.0 region. Below that a test of 399.2 to 398.2 is likely.
MARCH CORN
Support should appear 691 ¾ to 690 ¾ and the 683 33/4 to 680 ¾. Below that a test of 667 ¼ to 666 ¾ is likely.
Resistance should appear near 707 ½ to 708 ¾ and the 732 ¾ to 734 ¼ region, which should cap a rally.
MARCH WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 802 ¾ to 804 ½ and the 830 to 831 ¼ region. Traders can sell at 829 for a turn lower and risk a close over 843 for three days in a row. Beyond that sellers should appear near 856 to 858 ¾
Support should appear near 777 ¾ to 776 ¼ and the 768 ¾ to 767 ½ region. Failure there augurs for a test of 751 ¼ to 748 ¾. Stay tuned for Grain Flashes
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
FEBRUARY CATTLE
Support should appear near 13220 and 13100 to 13040
Resistance should appear near 13340 to 13460 , beyond that a test of 13770 to 13830 is likely.
APRIL CATTLE
Support should appear near 13617 and the 13460 to13340 region.
Resistance should appear near 13770 to 13830 and the 14150 to 14210 region.
FEBRUARY HOGS
Resistance should appear near 8667 to 8682 and the 8762 to 8777 region.
Support should appear near 8587 to 8562 and the 8502 to 8497 region.
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 8872 to 8857 and the 8777 to 8762
Resistance should appear near8932 to 8967 and the 9042 to 9062 region.
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 9747 to 9737 and the 9642 to 9622 region
Resistance should appear near 9922 to 9937 and the 10022 to 10037region.
Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes and Updates
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MARCH COFFEE
Support should appear near 14210 to 14150 and the 13830 to 13770 region.
Resistance should appear near 14840 to 14960 and the15290 to 15350 region.
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MARCH COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2267 to 2275 and the 2315 to 2322 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2354 to 2370. Traders can sell at 2351 and hold for lower prices. Risk a close over 2372 for three days in a row
Support should appear near 2226 to 2219 and the 2185 to 2170 region. Below that a test of 2134 to 2126 is likely to occur.
MARCH SUGAR
Support is at 1953 to 1946. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1909 to 1902 and the 1865 to 1858 region. Under that a test of 1822 to 1808 is likely and where buyers should appear to contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 1982 to 1996 and the 2034 to 2042. Traders can Sell at 2032 and risk a close over 2047 for three days in a row.
MARCH COTTON
Support should appear near 7342 to 7328 and the 7170 to 7143 region. Below that a test of 7003 to 6990 is likely.
Resistance is near 7587 to 7601. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7763 to 7777 and the 7836 to 7864 region and cap a rally.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for —
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Tuesday January 01, 2013
7:30 AM South Florida Beach Tim
THIS PUBLICATION IS SUBJECT TO REVISIONS AND CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OPTIONS. TRADING FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE TRADE WITH CAPITAL YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO SOLICITATION IS MADE HERE FOR INDIVIDUALS TO BUY OR SELL FUTURES CONTRACTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR OPTION MARKET. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. READERS ARE SOLEY RESPONSIBLE FOR HOW THEY USE THE INFORMATION AND FOR THEIR RESULTS. YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS, THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. INTERNET RISKS ; THERE ARE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH UTILIZING AN INTERNET BASED SERVICE INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FAILURE OF HARDWARE, SOFTWARE AND INTERNET CONNECTION, FUTURESCOM EMPLOYS BACK-UP SYSTEMS AND CONTINGENCY PLANS TO MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM FAILURE
FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 412 Tuesday January 01, 2013 Equity Indices – Treasuries – Currency Trading – Forex – Precious Metals – Energy – Grains – Livestock – Softs Comments
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