FuturesCom  Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 422 May 19 2013  SP500 and  Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee •  Sugar • Cocoa  • Cotton.  Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2

Saturday May 18, 2013

9:35 PM South Florida Beach Time

 

US Stocks closed higher on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at all-time highs.   The Dollar strength was broad and across the board .  Two weeks ago in BW # 421 I said ‘Investors should avoid the Australian Dollar unless there is a significant decline into the 9740 AUD/USD region against the Dollar. Aggressive traders should assume a trading range with a lower slant into summer is ahead of the market.’ This weeks blistering decline is not a good sign for a range bound lower slant into summer, it’s a mess and indicates substantially lower prices are in front of the Aussie Dollar not behind it.  Sell rallies as a preferred trade for lower prices into the next several quarters.  Expect more range bound to lower action on Euro as the US Dollar tends to strengthen into June.   The BW is essentially flat at this time, with only a short Lean Hog and a late trade on Friday in November soybeans which was elected at the high of the day, however some may not have been able to get elected as there were only a few trades at the price. The Dollar Yen remains bullish. However with caution, the Japanese Yen makes its high point of the year in Autumn, so caution is due. Over the weekend Japanese economy minister Akira Amari said when responding to a question on how far the yen should weaken, replied that while he couldn’t comment himself, said;  “it’s being said that the correction of the strong yen is largely completed. If the yen keeps on weakening a lot more, it will have a negative impact on peoples’ lives.”  It’s doubtful the government of Japan wants to redo an excessively strong Yen and revisit the mess is just came from over the last several years but the market should give trading chances on both sides for a bit.

Swiss Franc futures remain range-bound. Downside targets have been broken, if more selling occurs and it appears likely that it will , a range of 10580 on top and 9700 under the mkt is possible.  Typically the weakest part of the year for Swiss Futures is still in front of the market in June and July. Stay tuned for Forex flashes.  The British Pound is a trading affair.. Aggressive traders can buy a sharp decline for a trade as well as selling excessive strength.  Gold and Silver recovered and failed again. Nothing has changed. A range trade is now likely with limited upside from here and more downside risk into late summer and early autumn. How much downside risk?  Only the market knows. Energies acted better late last week, but once again only after sharp setbacks. Expect more range bound trade. Coffee is sale on rallies it remains lower on the year and year over year. Absent a freeze in the coffee region look for a range bound market. Sell a rally and look to sell Sept Coffee also. Hogs are a trading affair.  Front month Cattle made new contract lows on Friday, but closed in the middle of the days-range near the previous low. Look for a grind lower for now.  Pick Your Poison.

Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in All Markets                                            

                                   THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET

 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near 15,350.00 to 15,290 and the 14,960.00 to 14,840.00 region.
Below that buyers should appear near 14,590.00 to 14.530.00
Resistance should appear near 15,690.00 to 15,760.00 and the 16,090.00 to 16,150.00 region.

JUNE E-MINI SP500

Resistance should appear near 1689.00 to 1696.00 and the 1731.00 to 1738.00 region.

Support should appear near 1655.00 to 1642.00 and 1615.00 to 1609.00. Traders can buy at 1616 for a bounce and risk a close under 1609 for three days in a row. Below that support should appear near the 1576.00 to 1569.00 region and contain a decline.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 3503.00 and the 3553.00 to 3583.00 region. Beyond that a test of 3613.00 to 3623.00 is likely and should bring out sellers and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 3443.00 to 3425.00 and the 3388.00 to 3377.00 region. Below that a test of 3328.00 to 3319.00 is likely and should hold.

 

JUNE E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 2990.00 to 2972.00 and the 2937.00 to 2928.00 region. Traders can buy at 2992.00 and risk a close under 2967.00 for three days in a row. Below that buyers should appear near 2937.00 to 2928.00.
Resistance should appear near 3036.00 to 3045.00, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 3092.00 to 3102.00 and should cap a rally for a bit, beyond that sellers should appear near 3148.00 to 3157.00.

JUNE E-MINI RUSSELL 2000

Resistance should appear near 1002.10 to 1003.70 and 1010.40 to 1013.60 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1032.00 to 1036 00 and cap a rally. Traders sleep on a bed of Nails can sell at 1031.50 and risk 8.00 points .
Support should appear near 993.70 to 992.10 then 983.70 to 982.10 and the 973.70 to 970.60 region.
Below that buyers should appear near 964.10 to 962.50. Aggressive Traders can buy at 964.30 for a bounce and risk a close under 961.80 for three days in a row.

Stay tuned for flashes.

JUNE 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 144-07 and 144-21. Beyond that a test of 145-07 is likely. Beyond that sellers should appear near 145-21 and 146-07
Support should appear near 142-21 and 142-07 below that a test of 141-21 and 141-07 is likely  and should hold..

 

 

 

 

JUNE 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 132-21 and 133-07, beyond that sellers should appear near 133-21 and 134-07.
Support should appear near 131-07 and 130-21, below that buyers should appear near 130-07 and 129-21 which should contain a decline. .

                                           

 

                                                                  THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT

 

JUNE DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8484 to 8499 and the 8560 to 8589 region.
Support should appear near 8406 to 8391, below that buyers should appear near the 8314 to 8300 region. Traders can buy at 8353 and risk a close under 8299 for three days in a row.

JUNE JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 9821 to 9837 then 9921 to 9937 and the 10104 to 10136 region.
Support should appear near 9641 to 9625 and the 9542 to 9526 region. Below that a test of 9347 to 9316 is likely.

JUNE EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 12740 to 12680, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 12380 to 12320.

Resistance should appear near 12890.  Traders can sell at 12887 and risk a close over 12972 for three days in a row. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 13040 to 13100 region and cap a rally.
.  

JUNE SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10320 to 10360. Traders can sell at 10317 and risk a close over 10367 for three days in a row. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10580 to 10680 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 10136 to 10104 and the 10037 to 10021 region. Below that a test of 9937 to 9921 is likely. .

JUNE BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 15125 and the 14960 to 14840 region.
Resistance should appear near resistance should appear near 15290 to 15350 and the 15690 to 15760 region.

JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9821 to 9837 and the 9921 to 9937 region. Traders can sell at 9873 and risk a close over 9942 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 9641 to 9625, below that a test of 9542 to 9526 is likely.
JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 9641 to 9625 and the 9445 to 9429 region. Below that a test of 9347 to 9316 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 9821 to 9837 and 9921 to 9937. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10021 to 10037 and cap a rally.
 

 

                                                      THE PRECIOUS METALS

AUGUST GOLD

Resistance should appear near 1377 to 1383 and the 1415 to 1421 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1453 to 1459. Traders can sell at 1414.00 and risk a close over 1422 for three days in a row.
Support is near 1346 to 1334, below that a test of 1310 to 1304 is likely. Under that buyers should appear near 1274.00 to 1268.00

JULY COPPER
Resistance should appear near 33770 to 33860 then 34250 to 34430 and the 34950 to 35030 region
Traders can sell at 34900 and risk a close over 351.00 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 32700 to 32610 and the 32130 to 31940 region. a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 31570 to 31480 and eventually the 30450 to 30360 region.

JULY SILVER
Resistance should appear near 2315 to 2322 and the 2354 to 2370 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2411 to 2419 and the 2461 to 2489 region and cap a rally.
Support is at 2226 to 2219 and the 2185 to 2170 region. Below that a test of 2134 to 2126 is likely.

Failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 2042 to 2034. Below that buyers should appear near 1996 to 1982 and contain a decline.

THE EXCITING ENERGIES

 

JULY CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 9706 to 9737 and the 9821 to 9837 region. Beyond that a test of
10021 to 10037 is likely.

Support should appear near 9347 to 9316 and 9156 to 9140

 

JULY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 28830 to 28740 then 28290 to 28200 and the 27750 to 27580 region. Below that buyers should appear near 26720 to 26630.

Resistance should appear the 29280 to 29370 and the 30360 to 30450 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 30920 to 31020 and cap a rally.
JULY UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 28290 to 28200 and the 27750 to 27580 region. Below that buyers should appear near 26720 to 26630 and the 26200 to 26120 region.

Resistance should appear near 29280 to 29370 and 300360 to 30450. Beyond that sellers should appear near 30920 to 31020 and cap a rally.

JULY NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 4110 to 4120 and 4163 to 4183.
Support should appear near 3929 to 3909 and 3867 to 3858.

 

THE GRANDE’ GRAINS

JULY SOYBEANS

Support should appear near 1421 to 1415 and 1383 to 1377, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1346 to 1334 and eventually the 1310 to 1304 region.
Resistance should appear near 1453 to 1459 and the 1484 to 1496 region.

NOVEMBER SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1203 to 1192, below that a trade towards 1169 to 1164 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 1232 to 1238 and the 1268 to 1274 region.

JULY SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 4973 to 4995. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 5056 to 5057 region and cap a rally.
Support should appear near the 4856 to 4845 and the 4785 to 4775 region. Below that a test of 4717 to 4695 is likely.

JULY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 430.4 to 431.5 and the 437.0 to 438.1 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 442.5 to 444.6 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 418.3 to 416.3 and the 412.0 to 411.0 region. Below that appear near 392.9 to 390.9 which should contain a decline.

 

JULY CORN
Support should appear 643 to 641 ¼ and 635 to 633 ¾
Resistance should appear near 665 ¾ to 667 ¾ and 674 ¼ to 675 ½. Beyond that sellers should appear near 680 ¾ to 683 ¾.

 

DECEMBER CORN
Support should appear 513 ¾ to 512 ¾ and the 499 ½ to 497 ¼ region. Below that buyers should appear near 485 ¾ to 484 ½.
Resistance should appear near 525 ¾ to 528 ¼ and the 534 ½ to 535 ¾  region. Which should cap a rally.

JULY WHEAT

Resistance should appear near 690 ¾ to 691 ¾ and the 699 to 700 ¼ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 707 ½ to 708 ¾.
Support should appear near 667 ¼ to 665 ¾ and the 659 ¼ to 657 1/.4 region. .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK

AUGUST CATTLE
Support should appear near 11690 to 11640 , below that a test of 11360 to 11300 is likely
Resistance should appear near 11920 to 12030 and the 12320 to 12380 region.

JUNE HOGS

Support should appear near 9157 to 9142 and the 9062 to 9042 region. Below that a test of 8967 to 8932 and the 8777 to 8762 region is likely to occur.
Resistance should appear near 9237. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9312 to 9347 and the 9427 to 9442 region which should cap a rally.

JULY HOGS
Support should appear near 9062 to 9042 region. Below that a test of 8967 to 8932 and the 8777 to 8762 region is likely to occur.

Resistance should appear near 9137 to 9167. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9312 to 9347 and the 9427 to 9442 region.

OCTOBER HOGS
Support should appear near 7957 to 7932 and the 7867 to 7832 region. Below that a test of 7777 to 7762 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 8117 to 8132 and 8192 to 8222 region.. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8300 to 8317 and cap a rally.

 

Stay tuned for livestock flashes

THE SATISFYING SOFTS
JULY COFFEE
Support should appear near 13830 to 13770, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 13460 to 13340 and the 13100 to 13040 region.
Resistance should appear near 14150 to 14210. Traders can sell at 14150 and hold for lower prices… 14530 to 14590. Beyond that sellers should appear near 14530 to 14590 and 14840 to 14960.

JULY COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2315 to 2322 and 2354 to 2370. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 2411 to 2419 region.

Support should appear near 2226 to 2219 and the 2185 to 2170 region. Below that buyers should appear near 2089 to 2080

JULY SUGAR
Resistance is near 1689 to 1696 and the 1731 to 1738 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1774 to 1780 and cap a rally. .

Support should appear near 1655 to 1642 and the 1576 to 1569 region.

 

JULY COTTON
Support should appear near 8490 to 8484 and 8314 to 8300. Below that a test of 8223 to 8194 is likely.
Resistance is near 8668 to 8683 and the 8762 to 8777 region

                            

 

                            Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets

–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –

Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com

Sunday May 19, 2013
2:00 PM South Florida Beach Time 

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FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 422 Sunday May 19, 2013 Equity Indices – Treasuries – Currency Trading – Forex – Precious Metals – Energy – Grains – Livestock – Softs Comments

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