FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 425 June 30 2013 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable – ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking – chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk–“- Reminiscences of a Stock operator.
Saturday June 29, 2013
4:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
While all major U.S stock averages are up on the year and year over year higher, the end of the quarter and end of the month trade was sloppy. US Exchanges and Banks will be closed on Thursday July 4 in Observance of the U.S Independence Day Holiday. On Friday the U.S Department of Labor will release the U.S employment data for June. In addition the Weekly Jobless Claims normally released on Thursday will be released as well Friday. All the data will be coming out on what should be seen in the context of ‘holiday market’ trading week. We will send out a holiday trading schedule on Monday July 1st.
The Long term yearly technical patterns for US Stock Index Average remain friendly. As previously mentioned in earlier issues of this newsletter during bull periods the SP500 typically makes a low in late June and peaks into July and August and retests those lower levels during the October and November panics and end the year on a highs note.
Quite a few overseas equity markets such as Brazil, Russia and China are in lousy shape. Japan’s Nikkei remains up on the year and is above the April lows but well off the highs of the year. Treasury futures closed Friday higher with rates moving a bit lower. The Long Term technical work for U.S Treasuries is bearish, and as previously mentioned Treasury Futures most likely have made decade highs, investors should be aware of that and take action to sell rallies. That said typically US 30 Year bond futures stabilize and firm into early July. If you need analysis regarding overseas equity markets, please call the office or email a request. Traders should stay tuned for flashes and trades from both sides of markets and be nimble.
Foreign exchange traders should consider the Japanese Yen futures as a trading affair for the near term. Long term the USD/JPY remains bullish which is bearish for Yen Futures. However Yen can stabilize in this region and push higher with a weaker dollar yen into August as traders react to the plethora of news and associated comments by a variety of Finance ministers and Government representatives. Traders should be prepared for trades on both sides of Dollar- Yen, with a potential for some downside now that it closed the month on a strong note. Comments of note out of Japan
over the weekend include some by BOJ Deputy Gov. Hiroshi Nakaso who said in an interview Friday after US Markets closed that Japan’s economic conditions has improved and pretty much ruled out the need for acceleration of current policy or further easing to dampen Japans volatile bond market.
“The Japanese economy is on track to recovery, with a virtuous cycle of production, income and spending expected to be maintained”. “The policy seems to be working. We think no additional measure is necessary at this point.” He said BOJ policy “is in no way an experiment because overcoming deflation and bringing the economy back on track to sustained growth under price stability is our mission,” Mr. Nakaso said. “It is a manifest mission that we have to complete by all means.”
Japan has more work to do, May CPI data in Japan went flat after being negative for a long time. Project Japan’ will take some time; the next BOJ meeting is July 10-11. The push higher for US Dollar into month end was typical. If the US Dollar remains over 8300 one can anticipate a test of 8400 and likely higher. Typically the Dollar Index see a peak in price in the June and July time frame and this can last into August, nothing has really changed. The US Dollar gained back some technical strength (along with stocks from lower levels) last week. The Euro is still in the trading range it has been for a long time and remains a trading affair which is exactly what the ECB wants, stability. Numerous countries ‘off the radar’ such as Ireland and Greece still need a lot of help, not to mention France. The Eurozone economies are still in dismal shape when looking at the long term. The Euro’s latest slip away from the 13340 to 13460 region is negative and indicates eventual tests of 12890 and perhaps as low as 12740 to 12680. ECB head Mario Draghi’s comments over the last week were construed as dovish. The Euro closed the first half of the year a tad lower than it was on December 31. The Swiss Franc moved back into its trading range and remains lower on the year. Cable fell apart but still remains essentially at the same levels it has been for years and is likely to stay in this range. Aggressive traders can buy a sharp decline for a trade as well as selling excessive strength.
There is no change to the north of the US border concerning the Canadian Dollar Futures posture, selling rallies is preferred for the long term. The typical high point for Canadian Dollar Futures is in July, a slip into August should not be ruled out after a rally into Mid-July. Traders should use a mid-month rally to get short. Therefore, on the other side of the coin short term Forex traders can look for stabilization of USD/CAD into the 10580 to 10680 region and a slip back down into 10470 and 10360 to 10320. The real train wreck has been the Aussie Dollar and Kiwi, both stabilized and then plummeted. Both are lower on the year and year over year. While the declines appear overdone short term, these sort of declines can last for quite some time. The money invested in the ‘risk-asset’ play that had been popular is leaving, in the Aussie Dollar’s case its abandoning a well driven theme over the last several years. As previously mentioned in past issues of the Bi-Weekly, ‘investors should
simply, not be involved. Traders can trade the Aussie but ‘well heeled’ investors are simply leaving the long side with reckless abandon. Typically the Aussie peaks into July and then gets weaker into August and September and tests the March Lows which we are below now. Simply put it has lost its normal pattern it has enjoyed for some time, lower prices are likely and it’s not cheap. Consider the Aussie a trading affair.
Looking at energy markets, WTI Crude continues to act well amid geopolitical uncertainties in many countries in the Mideast and the neighboring regions. Headline risk rises this time of year, the WTI Crude Oil all time high was in July of 2008 and WTI Crude has in the past not peaked until into August and September. Supplies remain plentiful and the spread between WTI and Brent has narrowed.
Pick your poison and look for a broad range of trading. Heating Oil typically firms into July and August, while Unleaded normally moves sideways to down a bit, which is good for US consumers.
Gold and silver can recover a bit in July and August. Silver should act better than gold if the metals are going to firm a bit. Some metals such as Silver and Copper tend to act better in July than June, both are lower on the year and do not act well but can bounce. Short term traders can take a stab at the long side of copper for a trade as copper can bounce a bit into mid-July.
How long that lasts only the market knows. Silver came within a few cents of a key reversal Friday (on the last day of the month) and selling appears to have exhausted itself a bit. Traders can buy a dip and see if it holds. Gold is somewhat the same, long term is gold is negative, however a rally into mid-month can ensue and traders should be prepared for it. Regardless of the direction, the precious metals are volatile and traders should stay tuned for day to day flashes and treat them as solely trading affairs.
In the Agricultural Commodities the Change of seasons arrived and the Dog Days of Summer are right around the corner. Last week the USDA in its end of June crop update said U.S. farmers will plant more grain than forecast and the largest oilseed crop ever. Corn came in at 97.379 million acres. Wheat acreage is now at a four-year high of 56.53 million, soybeans a record 77.728 million. Farmers in the US are plowing over the driveways and sidewalks to plant as much as possible to produce record harvests. The United Nations has made a prediction that global wheat output will be the highest ever.
Chicago Wheat typically makes its low into July harvest look for briefly more weakness and then a stabilization and perhaps a grind higher into autumn. Typically during August Chicago Wheat will not breach the July lows if it’s going to have a firm price into autumn. Wheat should now be considered a trading affair instead of selling every rally…Corn can stabilize in this region to obtain a trading level for Dec corn. Soybeans will be a day to day trading affair, front month Soybean remain higher on the year. Soymeal acts well and continues to hold up well. Soybeans tend to act better in the first half of July and end on a low ebb. Ditto for Bean Oil typically exhibits rise into mid-July and then tends to grind lower in autumn harvest. Traders should look for a two way markets now that news is generally out of the way. Traders should stay nimble and watch the weather and upcoming reports.
Cattle firmed a bit into the end of June as expected. Hogs continue to post sharp gains in the Front end on demand and improving exports. Hedgers and traders should stay tuned for daily flashes and updates regarding all domestic agricultural markets.
After the close on Friday the USDA released it’s ‘All important’ June Hogs and Pigs Report, the breeding herd was up 0.3% versus a year ago and the market hog inventory was down 0.1%. Sows farrowed this spring were down 2.0%. Farrowing intentions for June-August were down 0.1% and fall farrowing intentions are up 1.0% the report is slightly bullish. Cold storage data released last week showed the amount of beef in cold storage at the end of May was 478.5 million pounds, down 6.9% from the end of April and down 3.9% from a year ago. Last week’s cattle slaughter totaled 649,000 head, down 1.5% from them week before and down 0.6% from a year ago. The average weight in Mid-June was 853 pounds up 1 pound from a year ago. Beef demand seems to be improving a bit and traders should look consider cattle a trading affair for now.
Typically Sugar firms a bit into early July. While supplies are still large and continue to overhang the market, reduced output in Ukraine and Australia are ever so slightly supportive in a Sugar market that is likely to see global sugar surplus for 2013 to 2014 of 4 million tons as continued expectations for a record cane harvest in Brazil continue to pressure prices. Thus traders can expect a two way market for a bit, buy an early dip in July look to exit and get short on a rally.
Coffee has been under pressure as global supplies exceed demand plus the farmers in Brazil waited too long to sell what-ever was left from the last crop year coffee touched nearly a four year low of
Last week the best cure for low prices is low prices. Coffee absent any weather related issues can trade and bounce along the lows in July and August and establish a trading range… Sell a Sharp Rally if able and look for a trading affair. Cotton tends to have a sloppy July, but it does not act bad and is higher on the year and is one of the few commodities to display that action. Cocoa tends to rally into early July and then has a sloppy period. Look for a trading affair to ensue.
Traders should note of the upcoming meeting of G20 Finance and Central banks representatives in the third week of the month. World leaders and politicians will be closing up shop for the summer soon; they tend to take longer and more expensive vacations than the populations under them. thus a plethora of verbal noise will be coming out as the political classes try to assuage the minions before they go on vacations.
Traders should stay tuned for flashes and updates for all markets.
Onto the Nitty Gritty
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near the 14,840.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near
14,715.00 and the 14,590.00 to 14.530.00 region.
Resistance should appear near 15,125.00 and the 15,290.00 to 15,350.00 region. Beyond that sellers
should appear near 15,520.00 and the 15,690.00 to 15,760.00 region.
SEPTEMEBER E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 1609.00 to 1615.00 a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1628.50 and the 642.00 to 1655.00. Traders should go long if a close over 1615.50 occur and stay tuned for a stop. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 1689.00 to 1696.00 region.
Nearby Support should appear near 1592.50 and the 1576.00 to 1569.00 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 135.00 to 1529 which should draw buyers out the woodwork and hold.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 3425.00 to 3443.00.a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 3493.00 to 3503.00 and the 3553.00 to 3583.00 region and should bring out sellers and cap a rally.
Support should appear near the 3388.00 to 3377.00 region. Below that a test of 3328.00 to 3319.00 is likely and should hold.
SEPTEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near the 2937.00 to 2928.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near
2883.00 to 2874.00 and should contain a decline. Under that support should appear near 2829.00 to 2820.00
Resistance should appear near 2928.00 to 2937.00. An extended trade or close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 2972.00 to 2990 and the 3036.00 to 3045.00 region where sellers should cap a rally for a bit. Traders should go long if a close over 2940 occurs.
SEPTEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Nearby Resistance should appear at 970.60 to 973.70 and the 982.10 to 983.70 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 992.10 to 993.70 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1002.10 to 1003.70 and cap a rally. Above that a trade to 1010.40 to 1013.60 is likely. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1032.00 to 1036.00. Aggressive Traders can sell at 1031.50 and risk 12 points.
Support should appear near 964.10 to 962.50 and the 954.20 to 952.60 region. Under that buyers should appear near 944.50 to 942.90 and the 934.70 to 931.60 region. Traders who sleep on a bed of Nails can buy at 934.90 and hold for higher prices, initially risk a close under 931.00 for three days in a row.
SEPTEMBER 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 136-07 and 136-21. Beyond that a test of 137-07 and 138-07 is likely.
Above that sellers should appear near 139-07 and 140-07.
Support should appear near 135-07 and 133-21. Below that a trade towards 132-21 and 131-07 is
Likely and should bring out buyers.
SEPTEMBER 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 127-07 and 127-21, beyond that sellers should appear near 128-07
and 128-21. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 130-07 and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 125-21 and 124-07. Below that a test of 123-07 is likely.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
SEPT DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8391 to 8406, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8484 to 8499. Beyond that a trade towards 8560 to 8589 is likely.
Support should appear near 8314 to 8300 and the 8223 to 8194 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 8134 to 8119 and the 8044 to 8029 region, which should contain a decline.
SEPT JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 10104 to 10136 and 10237. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10320 to 10360 should cap a rally. Traders can sell at 10317 for a quick trade and risk a close over 10367 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 10037 to 10021 which should hold for now. Below that buyers should appear near 9937 to 9921 and the 9837 to 9821 region. Traders can buy at 10037 for a bounce and risk a close under 10017 for three days in a row and stay tuned for flashes.
SEPT EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 12890 and the12740 to 12680 region. A close and sustained level under is negative and augurs for a test of 12380 to 12320 which should contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 13040 to 131000 and 13220 which should cap a rally
.
SEPT SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10680 then 10815 and the 10960 to 11010 region.
Support should appear near 10580 region, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10470 and eventually the 10360 to 10320 region. Traders should go short if a close under 10577 occurs.
SEPT BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 15125, an extended trade under is negative and augurs for a test of the 14960 to 14840 region, which should hold.
Resistance should appear near 15290 to 15350. Traders can sell at 15287 and risk a close over 15367 for three days in a row. Beyond that sellers should appear near 15525 and cap a rally.
SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9526 to 9542 and the 9625 to 9641 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9706 to 9737. Traders can sell at 9703 and risk a close over 9747 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 9445 to 9439 a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 9347 to 9316 region which should contain a decline. However failure to hold is negative and indicates an eventual test of 9156 to 9140 and lower.
SEPTEMBER AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 9060 to 9044 a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 8964 to 8934 and the 8871 to 8856 region.. Traders should go short if a close under 9037 occurs
Below that buyers should appear near 8683 to 8668.
Resistance should appear near 9140 to 9156 and the 9316 to 9347 region. Beyond that sellers should
appear near 9429 to 9445 and the 9526 to 9542 region and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 9523 and hold for lower prices. Stay Tuned for additional Forex Flashes
THE PRECIOUS METALS
AUGUST GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1235.00, an extended trade over is friendly and indicates a test of 1253 and eventually the 1268.00 to 1274.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1304.00 to 1310.00 and the 1334 to 1346 region.
Support is near 1203.00 to 1192.00 and the 1169.00 to 1164.00 region. Aggressive traders can buy at 1170.00 and risk 10.00. Below that a test of the 1136 to 1130 and the 1101 to 1096.00 region is likely.
Stay tuned for Flashes.
SEPTEMBER COPPER
Resistance should appear near 30920 to 31020, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 31480 to 31570. Beyond that sellers should appear near 31940 to 32130 and the 32610 to 32700 region and cap a rally. .
Support should appear near 30450 to 30360 and the 29900 to 29720 region Below that buyers should appear near 28830 to 28740 which should contain a decline. Traders can buy at 28850 for a bounce and risk 3.00
SEPTEMBER SILVER
Resistance should appear near 1982 to 1996, an extended trade or close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 2034 to 2042 and the 2080 to 2089 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2126 to 2134 and the 2170 to 2185 region and cap a rally.
Support is at 1909 to 1902 and the 1865 to 1858 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1822 to 1808 which should contain an early decline.
Stay tuned for Flashes
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
AUGUST CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 9706 to 9737, beyond that a test of 9821 to 9837 and 9921 to 9937 is likely. Above that sellers should appear near the 10104 to 10136
Support should appear near 9542 to 9526 below that buyers should appear near 9347 to 9316. Traders can buy at 9349 for a bounce and initially risk a close under 9307 for three days in a row.
AUGUST HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 28290 to 28200 and the 27750 to 27580 region.
Below that buyers should appear near 27240 to 27160 and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear 28740 to 28830, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 29280 to 29370 , beyond that sellers should appear near the 30350 to 30450 region .
Stay tuned for Flashes
AUGUST UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 26720 to 26630 and the 26200 to 26120 region. Below that a test of 25680 to 25520 is likely and should contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 27580 to 27750 and the 28200 to 28290 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 28740 to 28830 and cap a rally
Trade Accordingly
AUGUST NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 3613 to 3623 and 3682 to 3663, beyond that a test of 3734 to 3743 is likely while plentiful sellers should appear near 3858 to 3867 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 3563 to 3553, below that buyers should appear near 3386 to 3377 and the 3213 to 3194 region.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
AUGUST SOYBEANS
Support remains near 1421 to 1415 and 1399. Below that buyers should appear near 1383 to 1377 and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 1453 to 1459, beyond that sellers should appear near the 1484 to 1496
region and the 1529 to 1535 region and cap a rally.
NOVEMBER SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1238 to 1232. Below that buyers should appear near 1203 to 1192 and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 1268 to 1274, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1304 to 1310. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1334 to 1346 and cap a rally.
AUGUST SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 4695 to 4717, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 4775 to 4785 and the 4845 to 4856 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 4915 to 4926 region and cap a rally.
Support should appear near the 4582 to 4571, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 4514 to 4503, which should contain a decline.
AUGUST SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near the 442.5 to 444.6 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 450.3 to 451.4 and the 457.1 to 458.2 region and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 418.3 to 416.3 and the 412.0 to 411.0 region. Below that buyers should appear near 404.6 to 405.6
SEPTEMBER CORN
Support should appear 543 to 541 ¾ and 535 ¾ to 534 ½. Below that buyers should appear near 528 ¼ to 525 ½
Resistance should appear near 555 ¼ to 557 ¾ and the 564 to 565 ½ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 571 ¾ to 572 ¾.
DECEMBER CORN
Support should appear near 506 ¾ to 505 ¾ and the 499 ½ to 497 ¾ region.
Resistance should appear near 520 to 521 ¼ and the 5253.4 to 528 ¼ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 534 ½ to 535 ¾ and cap a rally.
SEPTEMBER WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 665 ¾ to 667 ¼ and 674 ¾ to 675 ½. Beyond that sellers
should appear near 680 ¾ to 683 ¾ and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 650 ¾ to 648 ¾ and the 635 to 633 ¾ region.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
AUGUST CATTLE
Support should appear near 12172 and the 12030 to 11920 region. Traders can buy at 12037 and risk a close under 11917 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near 12320 to 12380 region. Beyond that a test of 12530 is likely and eventually the 12680 to 12740 region is likely. Traders should go long if a close over 12387 occurs
OCTOBER CATTLE
Support should appear near 12537 and then 12247 and the 12380 to 12320 region. Which should hold…?
Resistance should appear near the 12680 to 12740 and the 13040 to 13100 region… Which should contain a rally.
AUGUST HOGS
Support should appear near 9737 to 9707 and the 9642 to 9622 and the 9542 to 9526 region. Resistance should appear near 9822 to 9837, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 10021 to 10037 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 9852 occurs
OCTOBER HOGS
Support should appear near 8562 and the 8502 to 8482 region. Below that buyers should appear near
8407 to 8391 and contain a decline. Traders can buy at 8407 for a bounce and risk a close under 8387 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near the 8667 to 8682 region. Beyond that a test of 8762 to 8777 and the 8857 to 8872 region is likely and should cap a rally. Traders can sell at 8852 and risk a close over 8887 for three days in a row.
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Livestock Flashes
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
SEPTEMBER COFFEE
Support should appear near 12030 to 11920 and 11690 to 11640.
Resistance should appear near 12320 to 12380 and 12680 to 12740
Traders can sell at 12675 and risk a close over 12775 for three days in a row.
SEPTEMBER COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2170 to 2185 and 2219 to 2226. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2315 to 2322 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 2134 to 2126 and the 2089 to 2080 region. Below that a test of 2042 to 2034 is likely.
OCTOBER SUGAR
Resistance is near 1731 to 1738, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1774 to 1780 where sellers should appear and cap rally.
Support should appear near 1655 to 1642 and the 1615 to 1609 region.
DECEMBER COTTON
Support should appear near 8406 to 8391 and 8314 to 8300. Below that buyers should appear near 8045 to 8030 and contain a decline.
Resistance is 8484 to 8499 and 8560 to 8589. Beyond that a test of 8668 to 8683 is likely.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday June 30, 2013
4:50 PM South Florida Beach Time
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