FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 438 December 29 2013 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.” — Vince Lombardi —
Sunday December 29, 2013
4:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time.
This week is a short trading week as the New-Year’s Holiday is Wednesday. Traders should stay nimble and tune in for BW flashes, Updates and Day Trades for all markets as we move from one year to another. A trading schedule is attached along with an economic calendar.
Have a Safe and Happy Holiday!
Speaking of wild action on Friday the Forex Markets had their own. The Euro pushed up through the upper side of its trading range then acted miserably all day. However the Euro is higher on the year yet remains a trading affair and now the range has expanded. An expanded range allow for profits on either side of the market. The Euro does have a tendency to slip a bit into the early part of trading year. Excessive rallies can be sold for a trade. Swiss Francs futures hit resistance once again and backed off. Swiss Futures are slightly higher on the year and up on the month. Dollar-Yen closed at its highs of the year last week. Traders should look for a continued upward bias in Dollar –Yen. Forex traders should remain long Dollar-Yen and buy dips. Selling March Yen on the last day of the year tends to make money until the Middle of February or roughly when Valentine day approaches. Sell Rallies in Yen Futures and remain short. While some profit taking is overdue the long term Dollar-Yen remains friendly. Seasonally, the dollar-yen makes spring ‘high’ and that can occur sometime in Mid-May to June. Long term Cable charts have turned friendly, buy a dip. The Aussie continues to act weak against the Dollar, a bounce is overdue however the Aussie remains well off its highs and traders should look for a more range bound trade and consider the Aussie a trading affair. The long term work on Aussie remains bearish, ditto for Canadian Dollar.
Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request.
For more information please call or email a request.
Energy markets are higher on the year and act better. Lasting lows in WTI Crude usually occur after the year–end passes and after some weakness post the Mid-January to February time frame occurs. February is typically the best time to for a good low for a longer term trade. Stay tuned for updates and flashes, energy prices are now hitting some sell regions and they can set back a bit for a trade.
Copper typically firms into the early part of the New Year. Consider buying a dip and getting long, however the spike in prices already achieved may produce a range bound trade now. Gold and Silver remain a trading affair are lower on the year and down from the beginning of 2012. Silver has a tendency to bounce after this week into the second week of January and acts a bit better for now.
Soybeans, wheat and corn all lost ground over the last week. Wheat tends to act sloppy during January and a sharp rally should be sold for a trade. Ditto for Soybeans. April and June Cattle tend to rally into the first part of January and are holding steady to firm. Traders should consider buying April or June Cattle for a trade. Friday the USDA released its All-Important Quarterly Pig Crop. The report showed the nation’s pig breeding herd was down 1.1% compared to a year ago and the market hog inventory is down 0.6%. September-November farrowings were down 0.2% and now indicate winter farrowings will be up 1.3% and spring farrowings up 1.4%. The market hog inventory is a hair smaller than guesstimates prior to the report, but farrowing intentions are a bit higher. The report should be construed as basically neutral. Pigs per litter are 100.1% of last fall which is the smallest year over year increase in pigs per litter since the middle of 2003. This is likely due to the PED virus. While June hogs are pricey they are firm and that can last for a bit. Commercials are mildly short and should be. With Corn prices at current levels and baby pigs at the prices they now, pig farmers should be purchasing the corn, buying the baby pigs, selling the futures and sitting back and waiting for a check. Getting back to the here and now; USDA’s monthly Cold Storage report showed 546 million pounds of frozen pork at the end of November, down 3.3% from the month before and down 2.2% from a year ago. Data from the National Animal Health Laboratory Network shows that as of December 15, the PED virus has been confirmed in 1,764 locations in 20 states which is an increase of 119 from the week before. However double counting in the data is common and tends to place a question mark on much of the information flowing out of the industry. Never the less cash hog prices remain weak, the average weight of barrows and gilts in the Midwest last week was 280.6 pounds, down 0.7 pound from a week earlier, but up 7.0 pounds from a year ago that is a hefty increase year over year. Traders can sell Feb and April Hogs for a trade and also look to buy dip in June and establish long June and July against short Feb and April Hogs. Aggressive traders may want to consider looking at the August versus April for a spread. Stay tuned for Grain and Livestock Flashes.
Meanwhile Sugar appears to be trying to halt its decline and now is range-bound. Cocoa remains firm and Coffee appears to be trying to break out of its recent trading range to the upside, coffee is up on the month and typically acts better into the end of the year and can produce a trading high in the spring. Winter only began a little over a week ago, Buy Dips for a trade. Cotton appears to be trying to break out of its recent trading range is up on the month and year, buy a dip and see if it holds.
Onto the nitty-gritty, stay tuned for flashes and analysis across all markets
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Nearby support should appear near 16,420.00. Below that buyers should appear near 16,285.00 and the 16,150.00 to 16,090.00 region.
Nearby resistance is at 16,550.00. A close or extended trade over is friendly and augurs for an eventual test of the 16,890.00 to 16,960.00 region.
MARCH E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near the 1858.00 to 1865.00 region and should cap a rally. Beyond that a test of 1902.00 to 1909.00 is likely to occur.
Support should appear near 1831.00 and the 1822.00 to 1808.00 region. Traders can buy at 1823.00 and hold for higher prices. Traders should go long if a close over 1840.25 occurs.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 4163.00 to 4183.00. Beyond that a test of 4238.00 to 4249.00 is likely to occur.
Support should appear near 4120 to 4110 and the 4056.00 to 4046.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 3992.00 to 3982.00 region and contain declines.
MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3563.00 to 3553.00 and the 3503.00 to 3493.00 region. Traders can buy at 3504.00 and hold for higher prices.
Resistance is at 3613.00 to 3623.00 a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 3663.00 to 3682.00 Aggressive Traders should go long if a close over 3588.25 occurs.
MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear at the 1164.00 to 1169.00 region. Beyond that a test of 1192.00 to 1203.00 is likely.
Support should appear near 1150.00 and the 1136.00 to 1130.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1115.50 and the 1101.00 to 1096.00 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes.
MARCH 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 129-07 and 129-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 130-06 and 130-21.
Support should appear near 127-21 then 127-07. Below that 126-07 should contain a decline.
MARCH 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 123-21 and 124-07, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 125-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 125-21 and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 122-21, failure to hold is negative and augurs for a test of 122-07 and
121-21, below that 120-21 should contain a decline.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8081 and the 8119 to 8134 region.
Support should appear near 8044 to 8029 then 7991 and the 7954 to 7939 region.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 9525 to 9542 and 9625 to 9641. Traders can sell at 9624 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 9445 to 9429, below that a test of 9347 to 9316 is likely and should contain a decline. Stay tuned for Flashes.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13690 then 13615 and the 13460 to 13340 region where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near the 13770 to 13830 region. Beyond that a test of 13990 is likely and should cap a rally. Beyond that sellers should appear near 14150 to 14210. Traders can sell at 14147 for a trade and risk a close over 14217.
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360, beyond that a test of 11500 and the 11640 to 11690 region is likely to occur and should cap rallies.
Support is near 11155 and the 11010 to 10960 region, which should hold.
Trade Accordingly
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 16420 and 16357. Traders can buy at 16357 for a bounce and risk a close under 16277 for three days in a row. Below that 16150 to 16090 should contain declines.
Resistance remains near 16550. Beyond that a test of 16720 is likely.
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9347 and 9388. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 9429 to 9445 region and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 9316, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 9235 and eventually the 9156 to 9140 region. Trade accordingly and stay tuned for flashes.
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 8777 to 8762, below that a test of the 8683 to 8668 region is likely to occur.
Resistance should appear near 8856 to 8871. Above that sellers should appear near 8934 to 8964 and cap a rally. Trade Accordingly….
THE PRECIOUS METALS
FEBRUARYGOLD
Resistance should appear near 1232 to 1236 and 1253.00, beyond that a test of 1268.0 to 1274.0 is likely and should bring out sellers.
Support remains near the 1203.00 to 1192.00 region, below that some buyers should appear near 1169.0 to 1164.0, failure to hold is negative and augurs for a test of 1136.0 to 1130.0.
Pick Your Poison
MARCH COPPER
Resistance should appear near the 34250 to 34430 region. Beyond that a test of 34930 to 35030 is likely and should bring out sellers.
Support should appear near 33760 and 33280 to 33190. Below that the 32700 to 32610 region should contain declines. Traders can buy at 32720 for a bounce and hold for higher prices.
Stay tuned for flashes
MARCH SILVER
Support should appear near 1996 to 1982 and the 1953 to 1946 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1909 to 1902.
Resistance is at 2034 to 2042 and 2080 to 2089. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2126 to 2134. Pick you poison.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
FEBRUARY CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 10104 to 10136 and 10320 to 103060.
Support should appear near 9937 to 9921 and 9837 to 9821
FEBRUARY BRENT CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near the 11300 to 11360 , beyond that sellers should appear near 11500 and 11640 to 11690 and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near the 11010 to 10960 and should hold. Failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 10820 and the 10680 to 10580 region where buyers should appear and contain declines.
FEBRUARY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 30450 to 30360 and 29900 to 29720.
Resistance should appear 30920 to 31020 and 31480 to 31570. Beyond that sellers should appear near 31940 to 32130.
FEBRUARY UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near the 27750 to 27580. Below that buyers should appear near 27240 to 27160 and should contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 28200 to 28290 and 28740 to 28830
FEBRUARY NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 4425 to 4446 and 4503 to 4514. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4571 to 4582 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 4315 to 4304 and the 4249 to 4238 region. Below that buyers should appear near 4183 to 4163 and contain a decline.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MARCH SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1310.00 1304 region, an extended trade or close under is negative and augurs for as test of 1289 and the 1274 to 1268 region.
Resistance should appear near 1334 to 1346. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1361 ½
Beyond that sellers should appear 1377 to 1383 and cap rallies.
Trade Accordingly…
MARCH SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 3982 to 3992 and the 4046 to 4056 region.
Support should appear near 3929 to 3909, below that buyers should appear near 3867 to 3858 and the 3806 to 3795 region.
MARCH SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 430.4 to 431.5 and the 437.0 to 438.1region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 442.5 to 444.6 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 418.3 to 416.3. Below that buyers should appear near 412.0 to 411.0 and the 405.6 to 404.6 region. Below that 399.2 to 398.2 should hold.
MARCH CORN
Support should appear near and 418 ¼ to 416 ¼ then 412 to 411 and the 399 ¼ to 398 ¼ region.
Resistance should appear near 430 ½ to 431 ½ and the 437 to 438 ¼ region. Beyond that 442 ½ to 444 ¾ should bring out sellers and cap a rally.
MARCH WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 616 ½ to 619 and 625 ¾ to 627. Beyond that sellers should appear near 633 ¾ to 635. Traders can sell at 633 and risk a close over 644 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near the 603 ½ to 602 ¾ region. Below that a testy of 588 to 585 ½ is likely.
Stay tuned for Grain Flashes.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
FEB CATTLE
Support should appear near 13460 then 13340 and 13237 which should bring out buyers.
Resistance should appear near 13530. Beyond that a test of the 13770 to 13830 region is likely and should cap a rally.
APRIL CATTLE
Support should appear near 13537 and the 13460 to 13340 region. Traders can buy at 13470 for a bounce and hold for higher prices.
Resistance should appear near 13615 then 13690 and the 13770 to 13830 region.
FEB HOGS
Support should appear near 8502 to 8482 and the 8407 to 8392 region. Below that a test of 8317 to 8300 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 8662 to 8682. Traders can sell at 8657 and hold for lower prices. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8762 to 8777 and the 8852 to 8872 region.
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near the 9062 to 9042 region. Below that buyers should appear near
8967 to 8932.
Resistance should appear near 9137 to 9157 then 9237 and the 9317 to 9347 region.
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 9937 to 9922 and the 9837 to 9822 region.
Resistance should appear near 10102 to 10137 and the 10317 to 10357 region.
Stay tuned for Livestock flashes.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MARCH COFFEE
Support should appear near 11690 to 11640 then 11500 and the 11360 to 11300 region.
Traders can buy at 11535 and hold for higher prices.
Resistance should appear 11820 and the 11920 to 12030 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes.
MARCH COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2775 then 2797 and the 2820 to 2829 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 2874 to 2883 and eventually the 2928 to 2937 and 2972 to 2990 region.
Support should appear near 2724 to 2716. Traders can buy at 2731 and hold for higher prices.
Below that buyers should appear near the 2672 to 2663 region and contain declines.
Stay tuned for Flashes
MARCH SUGAR
Resistance is near 1655 and 1689 to 1696. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1731 to 1738
Support should appear near 1615 to 1609, below that a test of 1576 to 1569 is likely.
MARCH COTTON
Support should appear near 8390 then 8314 to 8300 and the 8223 to 8194 region.
Traders can buy at 8225 for a bounce and hold for higher prices.
Resistance is at the 8484 to 8499, beyond that a test of 8560 to 8589 and the 8668 to 8683 region is likely. Stay tuned for flashes.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday December 29, 2013 1:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
Terms of Use and Agreement https://www.futurescom.com/policies.html
FuturesCom Investment Publications © 1996 – 2014 All Rights Reserved
THIS PUBLICATION IS SUBJECT TO REVISIONS AND CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OPTIONS. TRADING FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE TRADE WITH CAPITAL YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO SOLICITATION IS MADE HERE FOR INDIVIDUALS TO BUY OR SELL FUTURES CONTRACTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR OPTION MARKET. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. READERS ARE SOLEY RESPONSIBLE FOR HOW THEY USE THE INFORMATION AND FOR THEIR RESULTS. YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS, THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. INTERNET RISKS ; THERE ARE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH UTILIZING AN INTERNET BASED SERVICE INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FAILURE OF HARDWARE, SOFTWARE AND INTERNET CONNECTION, FUTURESCOM EMPLOYS BACK-UP SYSTEMS AND CONTINGENCY PLANS TO MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM FAILURE