FuturesCom  Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 440 January 26 2014  SP500 and  Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee •  Sugar • Cocoa  • Cotton.  Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2

“Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable- ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking – chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk- ” Reminiscences of a Stock operator ”

Sunday January 26, 2014
4:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time.

   Traders should stay nimble and tune in for additional analysis, BW flashes, Updates and Day Trades for all markets. An economic calendar is attached to today’s letter. U.S Stocks closed lower last week. Major U.S stock averages are down on the year. As we said in the last Bi-Weekly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and SP500 generally tend to begin the year a bit sloppy and typically firm into March.  Long term ‘yearly’ technical patterns for the major U.S. stock index averages such as the Dow Jones Industrial average is friendly and is just turning bullish.  Buying the Dow on the close last Thursday and holding until after the month ends has made money in 14 of the last 15 years.  Additionally the U.S stock market tends to rise from Mid-January into Mid-March. Much of the financial media attention is now focused on Turkey, Argentina, Russia, and so on.  The easiest way to avoid issues now coming to light is to not have money invested in those countries and those that have asked about that over the years got that same answer.  Currently, the issues plaguing ‘headline countries’ are deep, much of it domestically based and those issues are unlikely to change their course anytime soon.

Deep analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets in areas such as emerging economies is available upon request.  I will comment from time to time on those regions and markets around the globe in this publication, for more detailed information please call or email a request. Mexico demographically is in very good shape. The Cac-40 still appears to be a place where higher prices can be seen over the long term.

In Major Forex Markets, Swiss Francs futures have a tendency to back off a bit over the next month consider Swiss a trading affair now. Swiss came within a hair of us selling on the downside and also a hair within our selling on the upside. Sell a rally and try to get short for a trade.  Forex Traders long Dollar Swiss are down on the trade and are likely to see it lower against us more. Eventually we see it moving back up and turn into a profitable trade. Dollar-Yen fell on flight to safety. Euro came within a few pips of us going short on Friday. The Euro is likely to trade in a range bound between 13770 to 13830 on top and 13460 to 13340 on the downside, depending on which way the wind blows.

Silver rallied on Friday during the flight to safety then blew the lows and closed lower on the day. Gold which firmed earlier in the week closed up fractionally on flight to safety. 30 Year Bond Futures tested the sell region on Friday and tend to drift a bit lower into Mid-February historically. Notably, Microsoft closed higher on Friday. I guess that was flight to safety also.
We remain long dollar yen and remain short postured Yen futures. March Yen tends to drift lower in February and perhaps beyond into early March.  While some profit taking is overdue the long term Dollar-Yen remains friendly. Long term Cable, remains friendly. Cable typically makes a high in January and then drifts lower. Cable exceeded 16550 and is likely to test 16890 to 16960 during the year.  Expect some back and fill that can last for a while chopping around and we are not in favor of chasing it up right now and have not, our buy missed by a hair and it rallied to what is a sell region and now cable has drifted lower, higher prices are likely down the road.  Cable versus the Kiwi has shifted to the long side favoring cable and this could last some time. The long term work on Aussie remains bearish. Ditto for the Canuck.  In the Canuck look for a range a bit lower than current levels with upside rallies if they occur are ones that can be sold. Our long term posture in Canadian Dollar Futures is bearish.  However buying Canuck and selling Yen can work over the next month. It’s a wild mkt and we are long CAD/JPY for now.

Energies act better. Heating Oil took off on a number of weather related factors. Lasting lows in WTI Crude usually occurs after weakness in late January to mid-February occurs.  Thus February remains the best time for a lasting good low in WTI Crude for a long-side speculative trade. Natural Gas is now over 5.00 and looks constructive long term. However selling March Natural Gas at the end of this week and getting out around Presidents Day has made money 12 of the last 15 years. Unleaded tends to begin its ascent into spring right about now and we will see if it holds.  Gold and Silver both remain a trading affair and are likely to be one for a long time. July Bean Oil tends to firm or at least stay stable from now until March and April and may be ready for accumulation. Traders should also note the large buildup of snow in the Midwest is going to eventually melt and will likely cause flooding issues this spring. So once the grain markets are done with the sell off during January and early February (they are selling off a bit) some grains are likely to firm up as planting prospects are being determined, but Mid-February is three weeks away and right now all the focus is the bitter cold weather.

 

Higher cattle prices are going to show up in the retail prices consumers pay pretty darn quick.

The cattle upside move should now be compared to say wheat at 13.00 and Corn at 7.00 but will take longer to drift lower. We have rolled analysis to April Cattle and back, those who need February analysis and have not already made arrangements to get the info on a daily basis should send an email or call the office so you can get the February Cattle analysis to carry you thru end of January and into early February. We added to our Hog Spreads and rolled backward on the long side to August and want to stay that way and look for gains down the road. Sugar acts bad and lower prices appear likely, sell a rally.  Cocoa remains firm. Coffee appears constructive. Cotton acts ok, buy a dip to get long again.

Onto the nitty-gritty, stay tuned for flashes and additional analysis across all markets

                                  THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET

 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near 15,760.00 to 15,690.00 and the 15,350.00 to 15,290.00 region.
Resistance is at 16.090.00 to 16,150.00 and the 16,420.00 to 16,550.00 region.

MARCH E-MINI SP500

Resistance should appear near 1808.00 to 1822.00 and the 1858.00 to 1865.00 region
Support should appear near 1780.00 to 1774.00 and 1738.00 to 1731.00
NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Resistance should appear near 4163.00 to 4183.00. Beyond that a test of 4238.00 to 4249.00 is likely to occur.

Support should appear near the 4120 to 4110 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 4056.00 to 4046.00 region and contain a decline.

MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100

Support should appear near 3503.00 to 3493.00 and the 3443.00 to 3425.00 region.

Resistance is at 3553.00 to 3563.00 and 3613.00 to 3623.00 a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 3663.00 to 3682.00       

 

MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000

Resistance should appear at the 1164.00 to 1169.00 region. Beyond that a test of 1192.00 to 1203.00 is likely.
Support should appear near 1136.00 to 1130.00 and 1101.00 to 1096.00
Stay tuned for Flashes and trade accordingly

MARCH 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 133-07 and 133-21 then 134-07 and 134-21.
Support should appear near 132-21 and 132-07.  Below that 131-07 and 130-07 should contain a decline.

MARCH 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 125-21 and 126-21. Beyond that 127-07 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 123-21 and 123-07, failure to hold is negative and augurs for a test of
122-21.                                                 

                                                THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT

MARCH DOLLAR INDEX

Resistance should appear near the 8119 to 8134 region. Beyond that an eventual test of
8194 to 8223 is likely.

Support should appear near 8044 to 8029 then 7991 and the 7954 to 7939 region.

MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 9821 to 9837 and 9921 to 9937
Support should appear near 9737 to 9706 below that an eventual test of 9347 to 9316 is likely.
Stay tuned for Flashes.   

 

MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13615 and the 13460 to 13340 region where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near the 13770 to 13830 region.  Beyond that a test of 13990 is likely and should cap a rally. Traders can sell at 13761 for a trade and risk a close over 13837.

 

MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 11227 and the 11300 to 11360 region. Traders can sell at 11297 and hold for lower prices.
Support is near the 11010 to 10960 region. Below that an eventual test of 10680 to 10580 is likely.

MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 16420 then 16357 and 16277. Below that 16150 to 16090 should contain declines.
Resistance remains near 16550.  Beyond that a test of 16720 and 16890 to 16960 is likely

Stay tuned for flashes.

MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9044 to 9060, beyond that a test of 9140 to 9156 is likely.
Traders can sell at 9137 and risk a close over 9157 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near the 8964 to 8934 region. Below that a trade toward 8871 to 8856 and the 8777 to 8762 region is likely.

MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 8683 to 8668, failure to hold is negative and augurs for a test of 8589 to 8560 and eventually the 8314 to 8300 region.
Resistance should appear near 8762 to 8777 and 8856 to 8871. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9044 to 9060.

                                                      THE PRECIOUS METALS

APRIL GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1268.0 to 1274.0. Beyond that sellers should appear near
1304 to 1310 and cap a rally.

Support should now appear near 1253.0 and 1238.0 to 1232.0, below that some buyers should appear near 1203.0 to 1192.0, failure to hold is negative and augurs for a test of 1136.0 to 1130.0.

MARCH COPPER
Resistance should appear near 33190 to 33280.
Support should appear near 32130 to 31940

MARCH SILVER
Support should appear near the 1953 to 1946 region.  Below that a test of 1909 to 1902 is likely.
Resistance is at 1982 to 1996 and 2034 to 2042 and 2080 to 2089
Pick your poison.                                                                                 

 

                                                  THE EXCITING ENERGIES

MARCH CRUDE OIL

Resistance should appear near 9706 to 9737, beyond that a test of 9821 to 9837 is likely
Support should appear near 9347 to 9316 and the 9060 to 9044 region

MARCH BRENT CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 10820 then 10960 to 11010. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 11300 to 11360 region and should cap a rally.   
Support should appear near 10580 region failure to hold is negative and augurs for a test of 10360 to 10320 and eventually the 10136 to 10104. Where buyers should appear and contain declines.

 

MARCH HEATING OIL

Support should appear near should appear near 29900 to 29720 and 29370 to 29280 region.
Below that buyers should appear near 28830 to 28740.

Resistance should appear the 30360 to 30450 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 30920 to 31020 and the

MARCH UNLEADED GAS

Nearby Support should appear 26200 to 26120 and 25680 to 25520.

Resistance should appear near 27160 to 27240 and 27580 to 27750

MARCH NATURAL GAS

Resistance should appear at 5259 to 5282 and 5344 to 5356, beyond that a test of
5553 to 5577 is likely.

Support should appear near 4856 to 4845 and the 4582 to 4571 region            

  

                                                             THE GRANDE’ GRAINS

MARCH SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1274 to 1268, below that a test of 1253 and the 1236 to 1232 region is likely.

Resistance should appear near 1289 and the 1304 to 1310 region.
Trade Accordingly…

MARCH SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 3858 to 3867 and 3909 to 3929. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3982 to 3992.
Support should appear near the 3806 to 3795, below that buyers should appear near 3743 to 3734 and the 3682 to 3663 region which should contain a decline.

MARCH SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 430.4 to 431.5 and the 437.0 to 438.1 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 442.5 to 444.6 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 412.0 to 411.0 and the 405.6 to 404.6 region. Below that 399.2 to 398.2 should hold.
MARCH CORN
Support should appear near the 424 ¾ to 423 ¾ region. Below that buyers should appear near 418 ¼ to 416 ¼ and 412 to 411
Resistance should appear near 437 to 438 ¼ and the 442 ½ to 444 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 450 ¼ to 451 ½

 

MARCH WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 585 ½ to 588 and 602 ¼ to 603 ½.
Support should appear 557 ¾ to 555 ¼ and the 550 ¼ to 549 ¼ region. Below that a test of 535 ¾ to 534 ½ region is likely.    Stay tuned for Grain Flashes.

 

                                              THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK

APRIL CATTLE
Support should appear near 13830 to 13770 and 13460 to 13340
Resistance should appear near 14150 to 14210 and the 14530 to 14590 region.

JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear near 13100 to 13040 and 12740 to 12680
Resistance should appear near the 13340 to 13460 and 13770 to 13830 region.

FEB HOGS
Support should appear near 8590 to 8560 and 8502 to 8482. Below that a test of 8317 to 8300 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 8662 to 8682. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8762 to 8777 and the 8852 to 8872 region.
APRIL HOGS

Support should appear near 9347 to 9317, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 9157 to 9142 and the 9062 to 9042 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8967 to 8932, Failure there augurs for a test of 8857 to 8862.
Resistance should appear near 9427 to 9447 and the 9527 to 9542 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9622 to 9642.

JUNE HOGS

Support should appear near 10137 to 10102 and 10037 to 10022.

Resistance should appear near 10317 to 10357 and 10467.
Stay tuned for Livestock flashes.                                         

 

                                         THE SATISFYING SOFTS

MARCH COFFEE
Support should appear near 11360 to 11300 and 11010 to 10960

Resistance should appear 11640 to 11690 and 11920 to 12030.
Stay tuned for Flashes.

 

MARCH COCOA

Resistance should appear near the 2820 to 2829 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 2874 to 2883 and eventually the 2928 to 2937 and 2972 to 2990 region.

Support should appear near 2775 to 2758 and the 2672 to 2663 region

MARCH SUGAR

Resistance is near 1529 to 1535 and 1569 to 1576. Traders can sell at 1567 and hold for lower prices. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1609 to 1615.
Support should appear near the 1496 to 1484 region, below that a test of 1459 to 1453 is likely.
MARCH COTTON

Support should appear near the 8683 to 8668 region.  Below that buyers should appear near 8590 to 8560 and the 8499 to 8484 region. Traders can buy at 8597 for a bounce and hold for higher prices.
Resistance is at 8762 to 8777 and the 8856 to 8871 region. Beyond that a test of 8934 to 8964 is likely
Stay tuned for flashes.

 

                                       Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets

 

–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –

 

Happy Trading!

Bill wil@futurescom.com

Sunday January 26, 2014 12:00 Noon South Florida Beach Time

 

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