Futures Trading Newsletter , Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook #491.
FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Sunday January 17, 2016. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“Courage in a Speculator is merely confidence to act on the decision of his mind”
Saturday January 16 2016
4:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time
Stay tuned for flashes, updates, additional comments and recommendations. Contact our office if you need long or short term analysis for global equities, foreign exchange markets or commodities not covered.
During the cozy bull markets, typically the lows in September and October were are not lower than May lows. When that occurred, the market is telling us things. Taking it a step further, late October and early November ranges tended to stay above the Sept highs. Last year clearly that was not the case.
Now the year has begun with a weak open. The stock market acted badly and told us so.
While much of the decline has been blamed on one reason(China) or another (global growth). A good portion may be due to the open-ended retirement of the baby boomers, an issue we discussed many times over the last decade (or longer) in both this print publication and via live broadcasts. A good amount of 401K money and index based retirement funds have been parked in the SP500 for the last 35 years. We are witness to the constant unwinding of those assets by a generation who by virtue of age need to divest themselves of long term assets. Furthermore, if young adults are either unable or unwilling to continue to add to the funds, either by choice or by circumstances such the most recent debacle or ‘great recession’ as it is called, then more ‘problems’ that were simmering beneath the surface can arise.
Forex Markets; the euro long term downside targets remain well below the current trading ranges and levels. We remain lightly short. Cable downside support is 14210 to 14150 and 13830 to 13750.
Resistance above the market is at 14530 to 14590 and 14849 to 14960.
The USD/CAD surged and (Canadian Dollar Futures targets are lower) longer term targets remain higher.
Dollar-Yen has pulled back to the 11690 to 11640 region. Failure to hold is negative and buyers may back away to 11360 to 11320. The Nikkei Monthly work is iffy and rolling over to the downside.
The Dollar-Yen is higher year over year by a little bit. Watch out for volatility and consider Yen a trading affair.
The Aussie and Kiwi longer term downside targets remain lower and are trading affairs.
Precious Metals and Energy markets, generally speaking have room on both the downside and upside and the trends remain down. Gold and Silver are trading affairs. Silver is unchanged on the month and gold is a little higher, platinum and copper are lower. Copper is still a mess. March Silver and April Platinum are near contract lows. WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and the products all accelerated to the downside. Natural Gas has years of price on top of the market and remains a trading affair.
Grains; World soybean production and supplies are near record levels. Soybeans and Meal are a little higher on the month and Soybean Oil is lower. Wheat typically makes its highs of the season into early January and we may have just seen it. Wheat is nearly unchanged on the month. Corn is higher on the month. May and July Bean Oil tends to firm or at least stay stable from now until March and April.
Livestock; Cattle Futures ended the week down the limit. Typically, selling April Cattle makes money into the last week of January and perhaps even into February. Cattle likely made decade highs in 2015. Traders should stay tuned for day to day Lean Hogs trades. We will also be suggesting some trades for back end hogs along with the February and April.
Consider the livestock markets a trading affair, and stay tuned for livestock flashes and updates.
Soft Commodities; Coffee made new contract lows since the year began. Estimates of Coffee’s global supply/demand balance for 2016 and are still wide. The peaks for year tend to be in March and can produce a trading high in the spring. Traders should not be surprised to see wide trading ranges, coffee futures under 1.00 remains clearly possible.
Sugar is lower on the month and is essentially same price as it was a year ago, depending which way the winds blows. Consider sugar a trading affair. Trade both sides.
Cotton is lower on the month and a little above where prices were a year ago at the end of January 2015. Cotton is a trading affair.
Cocoa prices collapsed after year end. The long term Cocoa charts are rolling over. Cocoa is a trading affair sell rallies. The 4th Quarter Cocoa European grinding report was supportive on Friday. Recently one new case of Ebola was discovered in a region where it had been declared stopped.
On to the Nitty Gritty.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Support is at the 15,760.00 to 15,690, a close under or extended trade below augurs for a test of the 15,350 to 15,290.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 14,960.00 to 14,840.00 region.
Resistance should appear near 16,090.00 to 16,150.00 and the 16,420.00 to 16,550.00 region.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 16,720.00 and cap a rally.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 6509.00 to 6483.00. Below that buyers should appear near the 6350.00 to 6337.00 region and contain a decline for a bit.
Resistance should appear near 6809.00 to 6836.00 and the 6906.00 to 6919.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 6990.00 to 7003.00 region.
MARCH E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear 1902.00 to 1909.00 and the 1946.00 to 1953.00 region
Traders can sell at 1941.75 and risk a close over 1957.75 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 1865.00 to 1858.00, a close under augurs for a test of 1822.00 to 1808.00. Below that a test of 1780.00 to 1774.00 is likely.
Stay tuned for flashes
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 4571.00 to 4572.00 and the 4639.00 to 4650.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 4695.00 to 4717.00 region.
Support should appear near the 4381.00 to 4370.00 and the 4315.00 to 4304.00 region.
Below that a test of the 4183.00 to 4163.00 region is likely.
MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4110.00 to 4120.00 and the 4056.00 to 4046.00 region. Below that a test of the 3929.00 to 3909.00 region is likely.
Resistance is at the 4304.00 to 4314.00 and the 4370.00 4381.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4425.00 to 4446.00. Traders can sell at 4367.00 and risk a close over 4387.00 for three days in row.
MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1032.00 to 1036.00 and the 1058.00 to 1068.00 region. Traders can sell at 1057.90 and hold for lower prices. risk a close over 1069.20 for three days in a row. Support should appear near 1003.70 to 1002.10 and 993.70 to 992.10. An extended trade or close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 973.70 to 970.60 region is likely.
MARCH 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 160-22 and 161-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 162-21 and 164-07, where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 157-21 and 156-07. Below that a test of 155-21 is likely. Under that buyers
should appear near 153-21 and contain a decline.
MARCH 10 YR NOTES
Resistance should appear near 129-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 130-08 and 130-21.
Support should appear near 127-17 and 126-22. Below that 125-21 should hold.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 9921 to 9937 region. A close over augurs for a test of 10021 to 10037 and the 10104 to 10136 region. Support should appear near 9837 to 9821 and the 9737 to 9706 region. Below that buyers should appear near 9641 to 9625.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 8560 to 8589 and the 8668 to 8683 region. Support should appear near 8499 to 8460 and the 8406.00 to 8391 region.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 10820. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10680 to 10580. Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010 and 11155. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 11300 to 11360 region
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10104 to 10136, beyond that sellers should appear near 10320 to 10360 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 9937 to 9921 and the 9837 to 9821 region. Below that a test of 9737 to 9706 is likely.
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near the 14210 to 14150 region. Below that a test of 13830 to 13770 is likely Resistance should appear near 14370 and the 14530 to 14590 region, where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 6906 to 6919 and the 6990 to 7003 region.
Support should appear near the 6836 to 6809 and the 6755 to 6743 region.
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR Resistance should appear near 6906 to 6919 and the 6990 to 7003 region. Where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 6755 to 6743 and the 6673 to 6659 region.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
APRIL GOLD
Resistance should appear near the 1096.0 to 1101.0 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near
1115.50 and the 1130.00 1136.00 region.
Support should appear near 1082.00 and the 1068.00 to 1058.0 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 1036.0 to 1032.0 region.
MARCH COPPER
Resistance should appear near 19820 to 19960 and the 20340 to 20420 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 20800 to 20890.
Support should appear near 18650 to 18580 and the 18220 to 18080 region.
MARCH SILVER
Support should appear near 1377.0, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1346.0 to 1334.0 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1310.0 to 1304.0 and contain a decline for a bit.
Resistance is at 1415.0 to 1421.0 and the 1453.0 to 1459.0 region.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
MARCH CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 2990 to 2972 and the 2883 to 2874 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 2620 to 2612 region.
Resistance should appear near 3148 to 3157 and the 3261 to 3270 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3377 to 3386.
APRIL CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3102 to 3092 and the 3045 to 3036 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 2990 to 2972.
Resistance should appear near 3261 to 3270 and the 3425 to 3443 region.
MARCH BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 2829 to 2820 and the 2724 to 2716 region. Below that a test of 2672 to 2663 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 3036 to 3045 and the 3092 to 3102 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3194 to 3213 and cap a rally.
FEBRUARY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near the 9156 to 9140 and the 9060 to 9044 region. Below that a test of
8964 to 8934 is likely.
Resistance should appear 9526 to 9542 and the 9625 to 9641 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9706 to 9737 and the 9921 to 9937 region.
MARCH HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 9445 to 9429 and the 9347 to 9316 region. Below that a test of
9156 to 9140 is likely.
Resistance should appear 9625 to 9641 and the 9706 to 9737 region Beyond that sellers should appear near 9921 to 9937.
FEBRUARY UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 10136 to 10104 and the 10037 to 10021 region. Below that a test of 9937 to 9921 is likely
Resistance should appear 10470 and the 10580 to 10680 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10960 to 11010
MARCH UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 10360 to 10320 and the 10136 to 10104 region. Below that a test of 10037 to 10021 is likely.
Resistance should appear 10680 and the 10960 to 11010 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 11300 to 11360 and cap an early rally.
MARCH NATURAL GAS
Support should appear near 2.089 to 2.080 and the 2.042 to 2.034 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 1.953 to 1.946 region.
Resistance should appear near 2.170 to 2.185 and the 2.219 to 2.226 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2.267 to 2.275 region.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MARCH SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 868 ¼ to 866 ¾ and the 858 ¾ to 856 region. Below that a test of 849 ¾ to 848 ½ region.
Resistance should appear near the 885 ¾ to 887 ¼ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 893 ½ to 896 ½ and the 904 ½ to 906 region. Traders can sell at 903 ¾ and hold for lower prices. Traders should go short if a close under 855 ¼ occurs.
MARCH SOYOIL
Support should appear near 2937 to 2928 and the 2883 to 2874 region. Below that buyers should appear near 2829 to 2820. Traders can buy at 2833 and hold for higher prices.
Resistance should appear near 3036 to 3045 and the 3092 to 3102 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3148 to 3157.
MARCH SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 271.6 to 272.4 and the 275.8 to 277.4 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 282.0 to 282.9 region
Support should appear near 262.0 to 261.2. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 251.9 to 251.1. Aggressive traders should go short if a close under 266.1 occurs.
MARCH CORN
Support should appear near 356 ¼ to 355 ¼ and the 350 ¼ to 349 ¼ region. Below that buyers should appear near 383/4 to 337 ¾ and contain a decline. Resistance should appear near 366 ¼ to 368 ¼ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 373 ½ to 374 ¼ and the 379 ½ to 380 ¾ region and cap a rally.
MARCH WHEAT Support should appear near 471 ¾ to 469 ½ and the 465 to 463 ¾ region. Below that buyers should appear near 458 ¼ to 457 ¼ and the 444 ¾ to 442 ½ region.
Resistance should appear near 477 ½ to 478 ½ and the 485 ½ to 484 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 491 ½ to 492 ¾ and cap a rally.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
FEBRUARY CATTLE Support should appear near 12530, an extended trade under augurs for a test of the 12380 to 12320 region. Under that a trade towards 12030 to 11920 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 12830 and the 13040 to 13100 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13222 and 13340 to 13460
APRIL CATTLE
Support should appear near 12680 and 12530, an extended trade under augurs for a test of 12380 to 12320. Under that a trade towards 12177 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 12887 and the 13040 to 13100 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13340 to 13460.
FEBRUARY HOGS
Support should appear near 6117 to 6102 and the 6037 to 6022 region.
Resistance should appear near 6257 to 6272 and the 6337 to 6352 region.
APRIL HOGS
Resistance should appear near 6742 to 6757 and the 6807 to 6837 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6902 to 6922.
Support should appear near the 6672 to 6657 and the 6592 to 6572 region.
A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 6512 to 6482 region.
Stay tuned for Livestock flashes and updates.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MARCH COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 11640 to 11690 and the 11920 to 12030 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 12302 to 12380 and cap a rally. Support should appear near 11360 to 11300, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 11010 to 10960 and the 10680 to 10580 region.
MARCH COCOA
Support should appear near 2829 to 2820 and the 2775 to 2758 region. Resistance should appear near 2972 to 2990 and the 3036 to 3045 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3092 to 3102 and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 3087 and hold for lower prices.
MARCH SUGAR
Resistance is near the 1529 to 1535 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1569 to 1576 Support should appear near 1459 to 1453. Below that a test of 1421 to 1415 is likely.
MARCH COTTON
Support should appear near 6035 to 6023, below that a trade towards 5880 to 5855 is likely. Resistance is at 6165 to 6190 and the 6337 to 6350 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday January 17, 2016 12:35 PM South Florida Beach Time
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