Futures Trading Newsletter , Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook #494.
FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Sunday February 28, 2016. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
Observation, Experience, Memory and Mathematics. These are what a successful trader must depend on. A man can have great mathematical ability and unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also possesses the experience and memory. -Reminiscences of a Stock operator-
Saturday February 27th 2016
7:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time
Geo-political risks and volatility remain high. Contact our office if you need analysis for global equities, foreign exchange markets or commodities not covered in today’s newsletter.
U.S. equities did not act well Friday, after opening up higher most indices drifted lower into the close. Long term support remains well below prevailing prices. The Transports and Russell act better, but have declined the most since the highs were made well above current prices.
Forex Markets; The U.S. dollar index is nearly unchanged on the year and lower on the month.
The euro is under the 11010 to 10960 region. Support is now 10680 to 10580. Cable failed badly,
if 13830 to 13750 is unable to contain the decline an inevitable fall to 13460 to 13340 is likely.
The G-20 communique was released over the weekend. The group told U.K. citizens not to leave the European Union because it would be would be a global shock. Cable resistance above the market is now at 14150 to 14210 and 14530 to 14590. USD/CAD has weakened, volitity remains high. Conversely the Canadian Dollar futures have firmed up and historically tend to stay stable during March. The Dollar-Yen is lower on the year and year over year. The Aussie and Kiwi are trading affairs.
Precious Metals; Gold and silver have increased the trading ranges, silver tends to act better in late March, Gold tends to fall into the end of March. Copper is up on the month and unchanged on the year.
Pick your Poison.
Energies; Crude Oil continues to trade with a wide range. Crude Oil and the products are trading affairs. Natural Gas fell to lows not seen in this century.
Grains; The USDA Outlook forum took place on Thursday and Friday. Nearby Wheat futures and Soymeal futures made new contract lows Friday. Soybean Oil is rangebound. Soybeans continue to trade either side of year end levels. Soybeans typically firm up at this time of and have not. Corn is essentially unchanged on the year.
Livestock; Cattle and Hog futures moved up. Consider livestock markets a trading affair, and stay tuned for livestock flashes and updates.
Soft Commodities; Coffee is lower on the year and unchanged on the month. Nothing has changed. Our sell region did not hit and we have lowered the price. Sugar moved higher, seasonally sugar tends to decline from now until April. Stay tuned for flashes. May Cotton traded at new contract lows last week. The long term Cocoa works remains negative.
On to the Nitty Gritty.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Nearby support is at the 16,550.00 to 16,420.00 and the 16,285.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 16,150.00 to 16,090.00.
Resistance should appear near 16,72.00 and the 16,890.00 to 16,960.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 17,310.00 to 17,380.00 and cap a rally.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 7342.00 to 7328.00 and the 7170.00 to 7143.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 7088.00 to 7074.00 region.
Resistance should appear near 7428.00 and 7486.00 to 7513.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 7587.00 to 7601.00 region.
MARCH E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear the 1946.00 to 1953.00 and 1967.50. Beyond that a test of 1982.00 to 1996.00 should bring some sellers out of the woodwork.
Support should appear near the 1909.00 to 1902.00 region and 1883.50. Below that a test of 1865.00 to 1858.00 is likely and should hold for a bit.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear 4639.00 to 4650.00 and the 4695.00 to 4717.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4775.00 to 4785.00
Support should appear near 4542.00 and 4514.00 to 4504.00. a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 4446.00 to 4425, under that buyers should appear near 4381.00 to 4370.00 and should hold.
MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4183.00 to 4163.00 and the 4120.00 to 4110.00 region. Below that a test of the 4056.00 to 4046.00 region is likely and should hold.
Resistance is at 4238.00 to 4249.00 and the 4304.00 to 4315.00 region. Beyond that a test of 4370.00 to 4381.00 is likely and should cap a rally. Stay tuned for flashes
MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1047.00 and the 1058.00 to 1068.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1082.00.
Support should appear near 1032.00 and the 1018.50 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 1003.70 to 1002.10 region.
Trade accordingly.
JUNE 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 164-21 and 165-07. Beyond that sellers should appear 166-21 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 163-21 and 162-06. Below that 161-21 should contain a decline.
JUNE 10 YR NOTES
Resistance should appear near 130-21 and 131-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 132-21 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 129-21 and 129-07. Below that 127-21 should hold.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 9837. A close over augurs for a test of the 9921 to 9737 region. Support should appear near 9779 and the 9737 to 9706 region. Below that 9641to 9625 should contain a decline.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 8856 to 8870 and the 8934 to 8964.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear 9029 to 9044. Support should appear near 8683 to 8668 and the 8589 to 8560 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8499 to 8484.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 10890, a close under augurs for a test of 10820 and eventually the 10680 to 10580 region. Resistance should appear near 11010 and 11155. Beyond that sellers should appear near 11300 to 11360 and cap a rally. Traders should sell June at 11087 and risk a close over 11162 for three days in a row.
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10104 to 10136. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10320 to 10360.
Support should appear near 10021. An extended trade under augurs for a test of 9937 to 9921 and the 9837 to 9821 region.
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 13830 to 13770 and 13615. Below that 13460 to 13340 should contain a decline. Resistance should appear near 13990 and the 14150 to 14210 region.
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 7414 to 7428. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7486 to 7513.
Support should appear near 8342 to 7328 and the 7170 to 7143 region.
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR Resistance should appear near the 7143 to 7170 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7255 to 7242 and 7328 7342.
Support should appear near 7088 to 7074 and the 7003 to 6990 region. Traders can sell June at 7137 and risk 40 points.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
APRIL GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1232.00 to 1238.00 and 1253.0. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1268.0 to 1274.0
Support should appear near 1217.5 and the 1203.00 to 1192.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1180.50 and 1169.0 to 1164.0.
MAY COPPER
Resistance should appear 21260 to 21340 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 21700 to 21850 region and a cap a rally, above that resistance is at 22190 to 22260.
Support should appear near 208900 to 20800 and the 19960 to 19820 region.
MAY SILVER
Support should appear near 1421.0 to 1415.0 and the 1383.0 to 1377.0 region.
Resistance is at 1484.0 to 1496.0 and 1529.0 to 1535.0
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
APRIL CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3270 to 3261 then 3213 to 3194 and the 3157 to 3148 region.
Resistance should appear near 3319 to 3328 then 3377 to 3386 and 3425 to 3443
Traders should go short if a close under 3257 occurs.
MAY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3328 to 3319 and the 3123 to 3194 region. Below that a test of 3045 to 3036 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 3493 to 3503 and the 3553 to 3563 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 3613 to 3623 region. Traders can sell at 3607 and risk a close over 3637 for three days in a row. Traders should go short if a close under 3421 occurs.
MAY BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3213 to 3194 and the 3157 to 3148 region. Below that a test of 3045
to 3036 is likely
Resistance should appear near 3613 to 3623 and the 3663 to 3682 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3734 to 3743 and the 3795 to 3806 region.
APRIL HEATING OIL
Support should appear near the 10360 to 10320 region. Below that a test of 10136 to 10104 is likely.
Resistance should appear 10960 to 11010. Beyond that sellers should appear near 11640 to 11690 and cap a rally.
APRIL UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 12740 to 12680 and 12380 to 12320
Resistance should appear 13040 to 13100 and 13340 to 13460
APRIL NATURAL GAS
Support should appear near 1.780 to 1.774 and 1.696 to 1.689
Resistance should appear near 1.808 to 1.822 and 1.858 to 1.865
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MAY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 858 ¾ to 856 and the 849 ¾ to 848 ½ region. Below that at test 831 1/4 to 830 and 804 ½ to 802 ¾ region is likely. BW Traders can buy at 805 ¼ and risk a close under 801 ¼ for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near 866 ¾ to 868 ¼ and the 876 ¼ to 877 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 885 ¾ to 887 ¼ and the 893 ½ to 896 ½ region. Stay tuned flashes. MAY SOYOIL Support should appear near 3102 to 3092 and 3045 to 3036. Below that buyers should appear near 2990 to 2972.
Resistance should appear near 3148 to 3157 and the 3261 to 3270 region.
MAY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 2621.2 to 261.2 then 266.3 to 267.2. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 275.8 to 277.4 region
Support should appear near 251.9 to 251.1 then 246.9 to 246.1 . Below that a test of 237.0 to 235.4 is likely.
MAY CORN
Support should appear near 362 ¼ to 361 ¼ and 344 ¼ to 342 ½ . A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 338 ¾ to 337 ¾ where buyers should appear and contain a decline. Resistance should appear near 366 ¼ to 368 ¼ and the 373 ½ to 374 ¼ region.
MAY WHEAT Support should appear near 418 ¼ to 416 ¼ and 386 ¾ to 385 ¾
Resistance should appear near 457 ¼ to 458 ¼ and 469 ½ to 471 ¾. BW traders can sell at 471 3/4 and hold for lower prices. Beyond that sellers should appear near 484 ½ to 485 ¾.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
APRIL CATTLE
Support should appear near 13460 to 13340 and 13100 to 13040
Resistance should appear near 13987 and 14150 to 14210.
JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear 12532 and the 2382 to 12317 region.
Resistance should appear near 12680 to 12740 and 13040 to 13100
APRIL HOGS
Resistance should appear near 7142 to 7170 and 7242 to 7257
Support should appear near 7007 to 6987 and the 6837 to 6807 region.
JUNE HOGS
Resistance should appear near 8117 to 8137 and the 8192 to 8222 region
Support should appear near 7867 to 7832 and the 7777 to 7762 region.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MAY COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 11640 to 116490 and the 11920 to 12030 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 12320 to 12380 and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 11910 and hold for lower prices. Support should appear near the 11360 to 11300 region, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 11010 to 10960 and the 10680 to 10580 region. Trade accordingly
MAY COCOA Support should appear near 2829 to 2820 and the 2724 to 2716 region. Below that a test of 2672 to 2662 is likely. Resistance should appear near 2928 to 2937 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2972 to 2990 and 3036 to 3045. MAY SUGAR Resistance is near 1415 to 1421 then 1453 to 1459 and 1484 to 1496. Support should appear near 1346 to 1334 and the 1274 to 1268. MAY COTTON Support should appear near 5577 to 5553, below that a trade towards 5430 to 5418 is likely. Resistance should appear near 5945 to 5957 and the 6023 to 6035 region. Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday February 28, 2016 1:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
FuturesCom Investment Publications © 1996 – 2016 All Rights Reserved
THIS PUBLICATION IS SUBJECT TO REVISIONS AND CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OPTIONS. TRADING FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE TRADE WITH CAPITAL YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO SOLICITATION IS MADE HERE FOR INDIVIDUALS TO BUY OR SELL FUTURES CONTRACTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR OPTION MARKET. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. READERS ARE SOLEY RESPONSIBLE FOR HOW THEY USE THE INFORMATION AND FOR THEIR RESULTS. YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS, THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. INTERNET RISKS ; THERE ARE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH UTILIZING AN INTERNET BASED SERVICE INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FAILURE OF HARDWARE, SOFTWARE AND INTERNET CONNECTION, FUTURESCOM EMPLOYS BACK-UP SYSTEMS AND CONTINGENCY PLANS TO MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM FAILURE.