Futures Trading Newsletter , Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook #495.
FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Sunday March 13, 2016. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one
more time.” –Thomas A. Edison–
Saturday March 12th 2016
7:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time
Traders should remain prepared for wide movements across the board. Stay tuned for additional flashes and updates. Contact our office if you need long or short term analysis for global equities, foreign exchange markets or commodities not covered in our Bi-Weekly Investment Outlooks.
Monetary policy and government support for global economies remains extreme. The SP500 is a little under the close of 2014 and 2015. The U.S. economy is doing ok. Home values and wages are firming. Stay tuned for Stock Index flashes.
Geo-political risk has moved up a notch. Keep an eye out for spring offensives by all parties involved in conflicts. Overseas, European banks play a large role in the supporting the EU economies, more than banks do in helping the U.S. economy. Europe’s financial firms have been overleveraged undercapitalized, under-reserved and are now being torpedoed by negative interest rates and that is not going to change. The risk of either a Greek or British exit from the European Union has risen in recent months. Globally, far-right political parties are becoming more popular. In the U.S.A, our politics are increasingly embracing left and right-wing extremes as the electorate abandons the middle road in the face of diminished economic expectations.
Wars are ongoing not only in the Middle East, but also in Ukraine despite EU peace-deal attempts. Russia is also more aggressive along the East and West divide from the Baltics to the Balkans.
In China, the nation’s excursions in the South China Sea have alarmed its neighbors. Capital is fleeing and domestic economic growth is faltering.
Emerging Markets are in a tough spot, little or no structural reforms, lower commodity prices and ongoing currency debasements with huge debt-repayment issues that are likely to last for years.
Not to be an alarmist, but we should also mention health problems associated with the Zika virus. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) the spread of the virus has been accompanied by a spike in cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome. If you don’t know what that is you might want to look it up.
Nine countries have now reported increasing cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) in people of all ages, according to WHO officials. The U.S. is deploying genetically engineered mosquitos into the Florida Keys to stifle the pest.
The Federal Reserve meets next week and volatility is likely to remain high. Seasonally the stock market tends to firm up into the end of the first quarter. The Shiller Ten-Year inflation adjusted Price to Earnings ratio (PE) is a little above 25. The mean over the last 100 years is a little under 17.
Forex Markets; The U.S. dollar index is lower on the year and month. The European Central Bank (ECB) moved rates deeper in negative territory and increased quantitative easing. The euro is over the 11010 to 10960 region. Support remains near 10680 to 10580. Resistance is near 11300 to 11360 and 11640 to 11690. Cable has moved up off of multi-year lows. Nearby support is at 14210 to 14150. USD/CAD remains weak and volatility remains high. Conversely the Canadian Dollar futures have moved higher. The Bank of Canada recently left monetary policy unchanged. The Dollar-Yen is lower on the year and year over year. The Bank of Japan has a monetary policy meeting next week. Interest rates are negative in Japan, the bank recently said it may take longer than previously thought get to a 2 % inflation rate. Furthermore, if you buy a home in Japan, the standard is for the value of the home to depreciate to zero over forty years. The Aussie Dollar moved higher and Kiwi has traded rangebound. The New Zealand Central bank lowered interest rates last week and said the economic outlook has worsened.
Precious Metals; Gold and silver have increased the trading ranges and both act better. Copper is up on the month and on the year.
Energies; Crude Oil continues to trade with a wide range and has moved up. Crude Oil and the products remain trading affairs and are likely to stay flat for years to come. Natural Gas has bounced off of 17 year lows.
Grains; The weather market season for grains is now upon us. Soybeans typically firm up at this time of year and are doing so. Corn is a little higher on the year. Wheat typically does not make the season lows until July. Traders should sell July Wheat on a rally. Stay tuned for Grain flashes.
Livestock; Cattle and Hog futures have moved up. Cattle made decade highs last year. Third quarter pork production is estimated to up 3.6 percent from last year, the rise would be one of the largest on record. April Hogs are a trading affair. Summer month Hogs typically make highs in late April and early May. Consider livestock markets a trading affair, and stay tuned for livestock flashes and updates.
Soft Commodities; Coffee is unchanged on the year and the highs for the season typically occurs at the Ides of March. Sell rallies in July coffee. Sugar seasonally tends to decline thru April. Stay tuned for flashes. Cotton is trading just above multi-year lows. The long term Cocoa works remains negative. Sell rallies in the July contracts.
On to the Nitty Gritty.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Nearby support is at 17,125.00 and the 16,960.00 to 16,890.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 16,720.00.
Resistance should appear near 17,310.00 to 17,380.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 17,740.00 to 17,800.00 and cap a rally.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 7601.00 to 7587.00 and 7428.00 to 7414.00. Beyond that buyers should appear near 7342.00 to 7328.00
Resistance should appear near 7763.00 to 7777.00 and the 7939.00 to 7954.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8029.00 to 8044.00 and cap a rally.
JUNE E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear 2034.00 to 2042.00 and the 2080.00 to 2089.00 region.
Support should appear near 1996.00 to 1982.00 and the 1953.00 to 1946.00 region.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear 4845.00 to 4856.00 and the 4915.00 to 4926.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 5056.00 to 5067.00.
Support should appear near 4650.00 to 4639.00 and the 4582.00 to 4571.00 region.
JUNE E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4315.00 to 4304.00 and the 4183.00 to 4163.00 region.
Resistance is at 4370.00 to 4381.00 and the 4503.00 to 4514.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4571.00 to 4582.00
JUNE E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1101.00 and the 1130.00 to 1136.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1164.00 to 1169.00
Support should appear near 1068.00 to 1058.00 and the 1036.00 to 1032.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1013.60 to 1010.40.
Pick your poison
JUNE 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 162-21 and 163-07. Beyond that sellers should appear 164-07 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 160-21. Below that 157-21 and 156-07 should hold. Trader can buy at 157-23 for a bounce and hold for higher prices.
JUNE 10 YR NOTES
Resistance should appear near 128-21 and 130-07 cap a rally. Beyond that sellers should appear near 131-21
Support should appear near 127-21 and 127-07. Below that buyers should appear near 126-21
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 9673 and the 9706 to 9737 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9821 to 9837. Support should appear near 9542 to 9526. Below that buyers should appear near the 9347 to 9316 region and contain a decline.
JUNE JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 8856 to 8870 and the 8934 to 8964.00 region. Beyond that a test of 9029 to 9044 is likely. Support should appear near 8683 to 8668 and the 8589 to 8560 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8499 to 8484.
JUNE EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 11010 to 10960 and 10890, a close under augurs for a test of 10820 and eventually the 10680 to 10580 region. Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360 and the 11640 to 11690 region. Traders can sell June at 11637 and risk a close over 11697 for three days in a row.
JUNE SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10320 to 10360 and 10580 to 10680
Support should appear near 10136 to 10104 and 10037 to 10021.
JUNE BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 14210 to 14150 and 13830 to 13770. Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590 and the 14840 to 14960 region.
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 7675 to 7689 and the 7763 to 7777 region.
Support should appear near 7513 to 7487 and the 7342 to 7328 region.
JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR Resistance should appear near the 7675 to 7689 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7763 to 7777 and the 7836 to 7864 region and cap rally.
Support should appear near 7428 to 7414 and the 7342 to 7328 region, where buyers should appear and contain a decline. THE PRECIOUS METALS
APRIL GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1268.0 to 1274.0 and the 1304.00 to 1310.00 region.
Support should appear near 1232.00 to 1232.00 and the 1203.00 to 1192.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1180.50 and 1169.0 to 1164.0.
MAY COPPER
Resistance should appear 23150 to 23220. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 24110 to 24190 region and a cap a rally.
Support should appear near 21850 to 21700 and the 208900 to 20800 region.
MAY SILVER
Support should appear near 1535.0 to 1529.0 and should hold. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 1496.0 to 1489.0 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1459.0 to 1453.0
Resistance is at 1569.0 to 1576.0 and 1609.0 to 1615.0. beyond that sellers should appear near 1642.0 to 1655.0
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
APRIL CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3743 to 3734 then 3682 to 3662. Below that buyers should appear near 3443 to 3425.
Resistance should appear near 3858 to 3867 and 3909 to 3929. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3982 to 3992 and 4046 to 4056.
MAY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 39 90 to 3929 and 3867 to 3858. Below that buyers should appear near 3743 to 3734.
Resistance should appear near 4046 to 4056 then 4110 to 4120 and 4163 to 4183
MAY BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3929 to 3909 and 3867 to 3858. Below that buyers should appear near 3806 to 3795 and 3743 to 3734.
Resistance should appear near 4046 to 4056 and 4163 to 4187.
APRIL HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 12030 to 11920 and 11690 to 11640. Below that as test of 11380 to 11320 is likely.
Resistance should appear 12320 to 12380 and the 13040 to 13100 region.
APRIL UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 14210 to 14150, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 13460 to 13340
Resistance should appear 14530 to 14590. Beyond that sellers should appear near 14840 to 14590 and 15290 to 15340.
APRIL NATURAL GAS
Support should appear near 1.738 to 1.731 and 1.696 to 1.689. Below that a test of 16150 to 16090 is likely and should hold. Resistance should appear near 1.858 to 1.865 then 1.902 to 1.909 and 19460 to 19530.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MAY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 877 ¾ to 876 ¼ and 858 ¾ to 856
Resistance should appear near 914 to 915 ¾ and the 931 ¾ to 934 ¾ region.
MAY SOYOIL Support should appear near 3102 to 3092 and the 2990 to 2972 region.
Resistance should appear near 3261 to 3270 and the 3377 to 3386 region.
MAY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 275.8 to 277.5 and the 282.0 to 282.9 region.
Support should appear near 262.0 to 261.2 and the 256.8 to 255.2 region.
MAY CORN
Support should appear near 350 ¼ to 349 ¾ and the 344 ¼ to 342 ½ region. Resistance should appear near 366 ¼ to 368 ¼ and the 373 ½ to 374 ¾ region.
MAY WHEAT Support should appear near 465 to 463 ¾ and the 458 ¼ to 457 ¼ region.
Resistance should appear near 484 ½ to 485 ¾ and the 491 ½ to 492 ¾ region.
Traders should sell July Wheat at 505 and risk a close over 515 for three days in a row.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
APRIL CATTLE
Support should appear near 13830 to 13770 and the 13460 to 13340 region.
Resistance should appear near 14150 to 14210 and the 14530 to 14590 region.
JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear 12730 to 12680 and the 12380 to 12320 region.
Resistance should appear near 13037 to 13100 and the13340 to 13460 region.
APRIL HOGS
Resistance should appear near 7327 to 7342 and the 7412 to 7427 region.
Support should appear near 7087 to 7077 and the 6922 to 6907 region.
JUNE HOGS
Resistance should appear near 8392 to 8407 and the 8482 to 8497 region.
Support should appear near 8137 to 8117 and the 8042 to 8027 region.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MAY COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 13040 to 13100 and the 13340 to 13460 region. Support should appear near the 12380 to 12320 and the 12030 to 11920 region. Sell July Coffee at 13320 and hold for lower prices.
MAY COCOA Support should appear near 2937 to 2928. Below that a test of 2672 to 2662 is likely. Resistance should appear near 3092 to 3102 and 3148 to 3157. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3261 to 3270.
MAY SUGAR
Resistance is near 1569 to 1576 and the 1609 to 1615 region. Support should appear near 1459 to 1453 and the 1346 to 1334 region.
MAY COTTON Support should appear near 5504 to 5492 and 5430 to 5418. Below that a test of 5067 to 5056 is likely. Resistance should appear near 5945 to 5957 and the 6023 to 6035 region, where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday March 13, 2016 10:00 AM South Florida Beach Time
FuturesCom Investment Publications © 1996 – 2016 All Rights Reserved
https://futurescom.com/futurescom-policies-and-terms-of-usage-and-agreement
THIS PUBLICATION IS SUBJECT TO REVISIONS AND CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OPTIONS. TRADING FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE TRADE WITH CAPITAL YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO SOLICITATION IS MADE HERE FOR INDIVIDUALS TO BUY OR SELL FUTURES CONTRACTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR OPTION MARKET. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. READERS ARE SOLEY RESPONSIBLE FOR HOW THEY USE THE INFORMATION AND FOR THEIR RESULTS. YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS, THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. INTERNET RISKS ; THERE ARE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH UTILIZING AN INTERNET BASED SERVICE INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FAILURE OF HARDWARE, SOFTWARE AND INTERNET CONNECTION, FUTURESCOM EMPLOYS BACK-UP SYSTEMS AND CONTINGENCY PLANS TO MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM FAILURE