Futures Trading Newsletter , Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook #499
FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Saturday May 7th 2016. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable –
ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking -chances that he must
take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk” – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator-
Friday May 06, 2016
9:00 PM, South Florida Beach Time
U.S. stock markets remain in the same broad trading range. Global geo-political risks have risen and are on the upswing. U.S. Interest rates remain low and in many countries rates are below zero.
The constant ‘Babble’ from central bankers and policy makers normally settles down as leaders around the world go on vacation during the late spring and summer. However, due to political turmoil in the U.S. and abroad vacation time this year is likely to be slim to none. Speak of vacations, major League baseball is diverting a couple of ball games scheduled for Puerto Rico to Miami due to player fears of contracting the Zika virus.
Traders should remain nimble and stay tuned for flashes and updates. Contact our office if you need long or short term analysis for global equities, foreign exchange markets or commodities not covered today.
Forex Markets;
The U.S. dollar index is now higher on the month and remains lower on the year.
Spot euro (EUR/USD) and futures moved up to the 11640 to 11690 region and fell away.
Resistance is 11640 to 11690 and 11920 to 12030. Support is now 11360 to 11300 and
11010 to 10960. (GBP/USD) and British Pound futures are still near multi-year lows. The June 23rd vote on the United Kingdom’s possible separation from the European Union is looming directly ahead,
Cable has nearby support is at 14210 to 14150 and 13830 to 13770. Resistance is near 14530 to 14590 and 14840 to 19460. The Bank of England (BOE) meets on May 12th.
USD/CAD moved up and continues to trade with high volatility. Support is near 12890 and 12740 to 12680. Resistance is now 13040 to 13100 and 13340 to 13460. The Dollar-Yen has resistance at 10820 and 10960 to 11010 and 11300 to 11360. Support is at 10680 to 10580 and 10360 to 10320.
The Japanese economic situation remains frightful.
The Aussie Dollar moved up and then plunged after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered the nation’s cash rate by 0.25 percent to a record low of 1.75 percent. The Kiwi (New Zealand Dollar) moved away from the highest level in nearly a year. Long term nothing has changed, traders should sell rallies in both and look for lower prices down the road.
In China, the Caixin Chinese Manufacturing PMI for April slipped to 49.4 versus 49.7 in March.
The spot Chinese Yuan breached resistance at 6.483 to 6.509. a sustained move over augurs for a test of 6.577 to 6.591. Support remains at 6.430 to 6.417
Precious Metals; Gold is unchanged on the month, silver is lower and Copper is mess and lower on the month. Energies; Crude Oil, Crude products and Natural Gas remain trading affairs. Crude Oil and the products tend to make a high in this time frame and drift lower into June. Typically Heating Oil tends to act better. Traders should stay tuned for flashes and updates.
Fundamental updates are available during the trading day on all commodities, if you need them ask.
Grain markets; The USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate Report (WASDE) is scheduled for release Tuesday at 12:00 p.m. ET. Soybeans moved up and act better, however they are a trading affair now. Corn acts sloppy and planting is likely ahead of schedule.
Wheat collapsed. July Kansas wheat traded at new contract lows. Crop tour yields are above normal. Kansas wheat production is now estimated to be near 382.4 million bushels versus 321.9 million a year ago. The estimates are near the highest since 2003 and the highest yield since record highs 1998.
Livestock; Live Cattle futures and Hogs continue trade in a fairly wide range. Consider selling July and August hogs for a trade. We will continue to trade all months.
Stay tuned for livestock flashes.
Soft Commodities; Coffee fell apart and then moved up. Sell a rally in Coffee. Sugar and Cocoa and Cotton all acted lousy and are trading in wide ranges. Vietnamese and Central American growers are planning to switch some high elevation coffee growing areas to cocoa and then add additional areas for cocoa. Ghana wants to increase Cocoa production, all of this has long term implications for cocoa. Sell a rally in cocoa to hold and plan on rolling shorts for the next year to two years.
On to the Nitty Gritty.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Support is at 17,380.00 to 17,310.00 and 16,960.00 to 16,890.00
Resistance is at 18,080.00 to 18,220.00 and 18,400.00.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 7601.00 to 7587.00 and 7513.00 to 7486.00. Below that buyers should appear near 7342.00 to 7328.00 Resistance should appear near 7763.00 to 7777.00 and the 7939.00 to 7954.00 region.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 8029.00 to 8044.00
JUNE E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear at 2061.00 and the 2080.00 to 2089.00 region.
Support should appear near 2042.00 to 2034.00 and the 1996.00 to 1982.00 region.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear 4845.00 to 4856.00 and the 4915.00 to 4926.00 region
Support should appear near 4717.00 to 4695.00 and the 4582.00 to 4571.00 region.
JUNE E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4315.00 to 4304.00, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of
4183.00 to 4163.00.
Resistance is at 4370.00 to 4381.00 and the 4503.00 to 4514.00 region.
JUNE E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1130.00 to 1136.00 and 1164.00 to 1169.00.
Support should appear near 1101.00 to 1096.00, a close under augurs for a test of the
1068.00 to 1058.00 region.
JUNE 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 166-07 and 167-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near
168-07 and 169-21
Support should appear near 164-21 and 163-07. Below that a test of 161-21 is likely.
JUNE 10 YR NOTES
Resistance should appear near 131-21, beyond that sellers should appear near 132-07 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 129-07 and 128-21. Below that buyers should appear near 127-21
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 9429 to 9445, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the
9625 to 9641 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9706 to 9738. Support should appear near 9347 to 9316, below that a test of 9156 to 9140 is likely.
JUNE JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 9429 to 9445 and the 9526 to 9542 region. Support should appear near 9316 and 9156 to 9140. Below that buyers should appear near the 9060 to 9044 and contain a decline.
JUNE EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 11360 to 11300 and the 11010 to 10960 region. Resistance should appear near 11500 and 11640 to 16690.
JUNE SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10320 to 10360 and 10470.
Support should appear near 10136 to 10104 and 10037 to 10021.
JUNE BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 14210 to 14150 and 13830 to 13770. Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590 and the 14840 to 14960 region.
Traders can sell at 1.4527 and risk a close over 14597 for three days in a row.
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 7763 to 7777 and 7836 to 7864.
Support should appear near 7689 to 7675 and the 7601 to 7587 region
JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR Resistance should appear near the 7414 to 7428 and 7487 to 7513.
Support should appear near 7170 to 7143 and the 7088 to 7074 reion.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
JUNE GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1304.0 to 1310.0 and 1334.0 to 1346.0
Support should appear near 1274.0 to 1268.0 and 1253.0
JULY COPPER
Resistance should appear 21700 to 21850 and 22160 to 22190.
Support should appear near 19960 to 19820 and 19090 to 19020
JULY SILVER
Support should appear near 1689 and 1655 to 1642. Below that a test of 1615 to 1609 is likely.
Resistance is at 1774 to 1780 and the 1808 to 1822 region.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
JUNE CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 4435 then 4381 to 4370 and the 4315 to 4304 region.
Resistance should appear near 4503 to 4515 and the 4571 to 4582 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4639 to 4650.
JULY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 4446 to 4425 and the 4314 to 4304 region. Below that a test of
4249 to 4238 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 4571 to 4582 and the 4639 to 4650 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4695 to 4717 and cap a rally.
BW Traders should go short if a close under 4421 occurs
JULY BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 4446 to 4425 and 4381 to 4370. Below that a few buyers should appear near 4249 to 4238 and the 4120 to 4110 region.
Resistance should appear near 4571 to 4582 then4845 to 4856 and the 4915 to 4926 region.
JUNE HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 13100 to 13040 and 1740 to 12680.
Resistance should appear 13460 then 13770 to 13830 and 13987.
JUNE UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 14960 to 14840, a close under augurs for a test of 14590 to 14530.
Resistance should appear 15290 to 15350 and the 15690 to 15760 region.
JUNE NATURAL GAS
Support should appear near 2089 to 2080 and 20420 to 20340
Resistance should appear near 21260 to 21340 and the 21700 to 21850 region.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JULY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1013 ¾ to 1010 ½ and 1003 ¾ to 1002 ¼. Below that a test of
973 ¾ to 970 ¾ is likely.
Resistance should appear near 1058 to 1068 and the 1006 to 1101 region.
JULY SOYOIL Support should appear near 3213 to 3194 and the 3157 to 3149 region.
Resistance should appear near 3319 to 3326 and the 3377 to 3386 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3425 to 3443 and cap a rally.
JULY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 349.3 to 350.3 and the 361.3 to 362.3 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 366.3 to 368.2 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 332.8 to 331.9 and the 321.3 to 319.4 region.
JULY CORN
Support should appear near 368 ¼ to 366 ¼ and the 356 ¼ to 355 ¼ region. Under that a test of
338 ¾ to 337 ¾. Is likely.
Resistance should appear near 379 ½ to 380 ¾ and the 390 ¾ to 392 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 404 ¾ to 405 ¾ and 411 to 412.
JULY WHEAT Support should appear near 458 ¼ to 457 ¼ and 444 ¾ to 442 ½ region. Below that a test of 431 ½ to 430 ¼ is likely.
Resistance should appear near 469 ½ to 471 ¾ and 477 ½ to 478 ½. Beyond that sellers should appear near 484 ½ to 485 ¾ and 497 ¼ to 499 ½. Sell rallies.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear 12030 to 11920 and 11817. A close under augurs for a test of 11690 to 11640.
where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 12320 to 12380 and 12530. Beyond that sellers should appear near 12680 to 12740 and cap a rally.
AUGUST CATTLE
Support should appear 11690 to 11640. Below that a test of 11537 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 11920 to 12030 and 12172.
JUNE HOGS
Resistance should appear near 8192 to 8222. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 8300 to 8317 region and cap a rally.
Support should appear near the 8047 to 8027 and the 7957 to 7937 region.
Traders should go short July if a close under 8192 occurs.
AUGUST HOGS
Resistance should appear near 8192 to 8222 and the 8300 to 8317 region.
Support should appear near 8047 to 8027 and the 7867 to 7837 region.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
JULY COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 12680 to 12740 and 12890. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13040 to 13100 and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 12670 and hold for lower prices. Support should appear near the 12380 to 12320. Below that a test of 12030 to 11920 is likely.
JULY COCOA Support should appear near 3045 to 3036 and the 2990 to 2972 region. Resistance should appear near 3092 to 3102. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 3147 to 3158 region. Traders can sell at 3121 and hold for lower prices.
JULY SUGAR Resistance is near 1609 to 1615 and the 1642 to 1655 region. Support should appear near 1535 to 1529 and the 1459 to 1453 region.
JULY COTTON Support should appear near 6113 to 61010 and 6035 to 6023. A close under augurs for a test of the 5880 to 5855 region. Resistance should appear near 6337 to 6350 and the 6417 to 6430 region. Traders can sell at 6412 and hold for lower prices.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Saturday May 7, 2016 8:30 PM South Florida Beach Time
FuturesCom Investment Publications © 1996 – 2016 All Rights Reserved
https://futurescom.com/futurescom-policies-and-terms-of-usage-and-agreement
THIS PUBLICATION IS SUBJECT TO REVISIONS AND CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OPTIONS. TRADING FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE TRADE WITH CAPITAL YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO SOLICITATION IS MADE HERE FOR INDIVIDUALS TO BUY OR SELL FUTURES CONTRACTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR OPTION MARKET. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. READERS ARE SOLEY RESPONSIBLE FOR HOW THEY USE THE INFORMATION AND FOR THEIR RESULTS. YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS, THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. INTERNET RISKS ; THERE ARE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH UTILIZING AN INTERNET BASED SERVICE INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FAILURE OF HARDWARE, SOFTWARE AND INTERNET CONNECTION, FUTURESCOM EMPLOYS BACK-UP SYSTEMS AND CONTINGENCY PLANS TO MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM FAILURE