Futures Trading Newsletter ‘Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook’ #467.
FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Saturday February 07, 2015. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“A lot of people approach risk as if it’s the enemy, when it’s really fortunes accomplice.”
Saturday February 7, 2015
4:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time
Stock Indices are unchanged on the year. Major support for U.S stock markets remain well below current levels. Most U.S stock indices are hovering around either side of unchanged on the year. Friday’s close was weak for a day that had a good payroll number. Monetary policy and government support for the economy is still extreme. The interest rate environment in the U.S. is still zero. Bond Futures have pulled back a bit as rates moved up a bit after Friday’s Jobs data. Fed Chair Yellen will testify before congressional committees on the state of the economy for two days beginning February 24th. That will be interesting considering the make-up of the new congress. On-going labor negotiations between shippers and terminal operators at U.S. West Coast ports are a big deal for some U.S. export markets. Price volatility has increased for markets that may be impacted by the results. Global geopolitical concerns have risen. The Ukraine conflict appears to be ongoing and will last for some time. That script was written long ago. Remember, the IMF released its growth outlooks for 2015 and 2016 and said policy makers should use ‘other measures’. If monetary policy is not enough the only thing left may be war.
Most Futures Trading markets continue to have wide ranges. Investors and traders should stay tuned for flashes and updates across all markets.
Overseas, Italian Policy makers over the last week were making comments about the Greek negotiations. Italian Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan is tying the ECB easing into the political process. There was not any market reaction to this, and none was expected. However the political process is now fully integrated into the financial babble. This is a political process now. The process will likely last until sometime in March or even later.
Europe’s currency has seven years of price on top of the market, is a mess and accelerating to the downside, what it does now is unknown. Last time the Euro did this was in 1998. It ended up falling for three years, not stopping until the wars began in 2001. The Euro long term downside targets remain below the current trading ranges and levels. The Euro initially failed to hold the 11360 to 11300 region. The next downside target is the 11010 to 10960 region. Resistance is remains near 11360 and at 11640 to 11690. The Euro may simply become a trading affair. Nothing has changed. Last week the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged. The BOE will publish its’ ‘Quarterly Inflation Report’ on February 12th and the report is unlikely to show any need to change policy. Cable downside support remains near 14960 to 14840. Below that a test of the 14590 to 14530 region is likely. Resistance above the market at 15290 to 15350 was tested last week. USD/CAD dipped, the USD/CAD has some support at 12380 to 12320 and that level was tested last week. Resistance remains near 12680 to 12740. Dollar-Yen continues to trade a bit lower on the year. Look for USD/JPY to move back to a higher on the year level. On the downside USD/JPY support is at the 11690 to 11640 region, and it held last week. The nearby resistance is 11920 to 12030. The target on top is 12320 to 12380 with higher tests down the road. Yen a trading affair. Look to get long USD/JPY during a dip (Sell Yen futures for Futures Trading on a rally). Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its key interest rate last week by 25 basis points to a record low of 2.25%. Longer term downside targets remain lower for both the Kiwi and Aussie. Sell 2 day rallies for Futures Trading
Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets along with Futures Trading is available upon request. For a country by country analysis for trading or hedging please call or email a request.
Precious Metals and Energy Futures Trading ; Silver and Gold tumbled on Friday. Gold and Silver remain weak longer term. Silver is trading affair. Both Gold and Silver are still higher on the year. Copper remains weak and is lower on the year. Support is well below prevailing trading levels.
WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and the products Futures Trading all bounced and have experienced wide trading ranges and appear pricey short term. Natural Gas prices are weak and act sloppy. Grains; we sent out the guesstimates for the upcoming USDA report, due to be released on Tuesday February 10th at 12:00 Noon ET. Traders should expect volatility over the next several days in the grain markets. Weather in the Southern Hemisphere is favorable for harvest and the movement of supplies of grain, especially soybeans. A record soybean crop in the Southern Hemisphere still looms over the horizon and world stockpiles of soybeans are likely to be at record levels this year. On the hand, typically buying soybeans in the middle of February is a trade to consider. Buying May Soybeans down near 859 ½ for a bounce should be ok. Soybean Oil acts better after a blistering decline to under 30.00. Corn acts range bound. We expect farmer selling to increase if prices move up. Wheat bounced nicely. Typically the lows in Wheat are usually not seen until July. Traders should consider selling a rally. France has a large inventory of wheat. E.U soft wheat exports are expected to be about 8 to 10 % higher this year. Longer term the declining Euro will help the EU gain market share for wheat exports.
Livestock Futures Trading remain weak long term. Friday sharp move up indicates a trading affair in livestock is likely.
While the cash hog news has been lousy, Saturday hog slaughters should help clean up the inventory. Weights are still lofty and are likely to remain that way. That said, anything can happen, July hogs typically firm up from the end of January maybe early February until Mid-March. Traders can buy July Hogs at 7957 and hold for higher prices. Live Cattle futures are lower on the year. Because both Cattle and Hogs closed up the limit Friday, our work is wide ranged. There is likely to be a lot of price movement in both Live Cattle and Lean Hogs. Consider the livestock Futures Trading markets a trading affair, and stay tuned for livestock Futures Trading flashes and updates.
In the Soft Commodities Futures Trading , we are rolling general analysis to May contracts for Futures Trading . If you need March analysis let us know. Coffee has traded in a range bound fashion. Uncertainty of the size of Brazil’s coffee crop has been supportive. Southern hemisphere coffee producing countries are trying to ramp up production. Brazil will likely do all it can to increase production down the road. Better rainfall over Brazil’s coffee growing areas has occurred. Columbia’s Coffee production has increased and is now at levels not seen in years. The decline in Brazil’s currency the ‘Real’ is likely to enhance activity from Brazilian exporters. The U.S. Dollar against the Real, USD/BRL is at a 10 year high. Sugar bounced over the last few weeks then fell apart on Friday. Soft global demand and weak energy are likely to continue to pressure sugar over time. Sugar may be heading under 14.00. India is expected to produce close to 26 million tonnes of sugar. Consumption is expected to be near 24.7 million tonnes.
The government officials in India will take measures to move some of the supply from last year by way of exports using subsidies. Brazil exported 1.747 million tonnes of Sugar in January versus 1.798 million in December. Last year the total was 1.803 million. World since cotton world inventories are at record highs. The U.S Cotton growing season is just ahead, plantings in the U.S. are expected to be lower than last year. Long term nothing has changed. The government in India has been taking in excess Cotton supplies and storing it. Government officials in India are encouraging growers to switch to other crops.
Cocoa is down on the year. Cocoa has essentially produced a long-term sell signal, we will see if sustains lower prices. If it does prices are likely to decline substantially. Uncertainty over the West African Cocoa mid-crop because of hot and dry weather has helped Cocoa bounce. Ghana’s crop may have suffered a bit in January. Supply inflows into the ports do not indicate near term shortages.
Onto the Nitty Gritty for Futures Trading
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Nearby support is at 17,800 to 17,740.00 and 17570.00. Below that 17,380.00 to 17,310.00 should hold. Better support remains near the 16,960.00 to 16,890.00 region and should contain a decline. Nearby Resistance is at the 18,080.00 to 18,220.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 18,580.00 to 18,650.00 region and cap a rally.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 8777.00 to 8762.00 and the 8683.00 to 8668.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8589.00 to 8560.00 and contain a decline.
Resistance is at 9044.00 to 9060.00 and the 9140.00 to 9156.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 9,316.00 to 9,347.00 region and cap a rally.
MARCH E-MINI SP500
Resistance is at 2061.50, a close over is friendly. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 2080.00 to 2089.00 region. Beyond that resistance should near the 2126.00 to 2134.00 region, and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 2034.00, an extended trade below or close under is negative and augurs for a test of 2015.00 and likely the 1996.00 to 1982.00 region. Under that buyers should appear near the 1953.00 to 1946.00 and contain a decline. Traders can buy at 1955.50 and initially risk 12 points.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 4775.00 to 4785.00 and the 4845.00 to 4856.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4915.00 to 4926.00 and the 4973.00 to 4995.00 region. Support should appear near 4717.00 to 4695.00 and 4650.00 to 4639.00. Below that buyers should appear near the 4582.00 to 4571.00 region and contain a decline.
MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Nearby support should appear near 4183.00 to 4163.00, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 4120.00 to 4110.00 and eventually the 4056.00 to 4046.00 region. Nearby resistance is at 4238.00 to 4249.00 and the 4304 to 4315 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4370.00 to 4381.00 and the 4425.00 to 4446.00 region and cap a rally.
MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1232.00 to 1238.00 and 1253.00. Support should appear near 1192.00 and 1180.50. Below that a test of 1169.00 to 1164.00 is likely. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 1136.00 to 1130.00 region, and traders should not rule out a test of that level.
MARCH 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 148-07 and 148-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 150-21 and 151-07.
Support should appear near 146-21 and 145-22. Below that a test of 145-07 is likely. Under that buyers should appear 144-22 and contain a decline.
MARCH 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 129-08 and 130-17. Beyond that sellers should appear near 131-07 and cap a rally. Support should appear near 127-22 then 127-08 and 126-17. Where buyers should appear and contain a decline. Failure there is negative and indicates a test of 125-21.
Futures Trading flashes and updates at FuturesCom are delivered 24 Hours a day
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 9526 to 9542. Beyond that a test of 9641 to 9625 and the 9706 and 9737 region is likely.
Support should appear near 9445 to 9429 and the 9347 to 9316 region, which should hold.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 8484 to 8492 and the 8560 to 8589 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8668 to 8683 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 8391, an extended trade or close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 8314 to 8300 region.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 11010 to 10960 failure there is negative and indicates an eventual test of the 10680 to 10580 region. Below that buyers should appear near 10360 to 10320.
Resistance should appear near 11360 and the 11640 to 11690 region. Traders can sell at 11360 and hold for lower prices. Stay tuned for Flashes.
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010 and 11300 to 11360. Support should appear near 10680 to 10580 and 10360 to 10320.
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near the 14960 to 14840 region. Below that a test of 14590 to 1 4530 is likely. Resistance should appear near 15290 to 15350 and 15690 to 15760.
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 8029 to 8044 and the 8119 to 8134 region.
Support should appear near 7954 to 7939 and the 7777 to 7763 region. Traders should go short if a close under 7932 occurs. Sell rallies
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR Resistance should appear near 7836 to 7864 and the 7939 to 7954 region. Traders can sell at 7939 and risk a close over 7967 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near the 7689 to 7675, a close under augurs for a test of 7601 to 7587 and the 7513 to 7486 region. Traders should go short if a close under 7672 occurs.
Futures Trading flashes and updates at FuturesCom are delivered 24 Hours a day
THE PRECIOUS METALS
APRIL GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1253.0 and the 1268.0 to 1274.0 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1304.0 to 1310.0 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 1203.0 to 1192.0, below that, buyers should appear near the 1169.00 to 1164.00 region.
MARCH COPPER Resistance should appear near 26120 to 26200 and the 26630 to 26720 region.
Support should appear near 23700 to 23540 and the 22260 to 22190 region.
MARCH SILVER
Support should appear near 1655 to 1642, below that a test of 1615 to 1609 is likely.
Resistance is at 1689.0 to 1696.0 then 1731.0 to 1738.0 and the 1774.0 to 1780.0 region where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
Futures Trading flashes and updates at FuturesCom are delivered 24 Hours a day
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
MARCH CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 4995 to 4973 then 4856 to 4845 and the 4514 to 4503 region.
Resistance should appear near 5200 to 5211 and the 5344 to 5350 region.
APRIL CRUDE OIL
Nearby support should appear near 5057 to 5056 and 4973 to 4995
Nearby resistance should appear near 5259 to 5282 and 5344 to 5356
APRIL BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 5805 to 5792, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 5577 to 5553 and eventually the 5356 to 5344 region.
Resistance should appear near 6023 to 6035 and 6119 to 6134. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6337 to 6350.
MARCH HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 17380 to 17310
Resistance should appear 19020 to 19090
MARCH UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear 14590 to 14530 and 13830 to 13770
Resistance should appear near 15690 to 15760 and 16090 to 16150
MARCH NATURAL GAS
Support should appear near 2.568 to 2.552 and 2.419 to 2.411
Resistance should appear near 2.663 to 2.672 and 2.716 to 2.724. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2.820 to 2.829 and the 2.883 to 2.874 region.
Stay Tuned for Energy Flashes
Futures Trading flashes and updates at FuturesCom are delivered 24 Hours a day
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MARCH SOYBEANS Futures Trading
Support should appear near 964 ¼ to 962 ½. Below that a test of 934 ¾ to 931 ¾ is likely.
Failure there augurs for a test of the 915 ¾ to 914 region.
Resistance should appear near 982 ¼ to 983 ½ and the 992 ¼ to 993 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1010 ½ to 1013 ¾ and cap a rally.
MARCH SOYOIL Futures Trading
Support should appear near 3102 to 3092 and the 3045 to 3036 region. Below that a test of 2990 to 2972 is likely Resistance should appear near 3194 to 3213 and the 3261 to 3270 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 3319 to 3328 region and cap a rally.
MARCH SOYMEAL Resistance should appear near 342.5 to 344.3 and the 349.3 to 350.3 region. Support should appear near 327.0 to 326.1, below that a test of 321.3 to 319.4 and the 315.7 to 314.8 region is likely.
MARCH CORN Futures Trading
Support should appear near 374 ¼ to 373 ¼ and the 368 ¼ to 366 ¼ region. Resistance should appear near 390 ¾ to 392 ¾ and the 398 ¼ to 399 ¼ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 411 to 412 and cap a rally.
MARCH WHEAT Futures Trading
Support should appear near 521 ¼ to 520 and the 506 ¾ to 505 ¾ region. Below that a test of the 492 ¾ to 491 ½ region is likely.
Resistance should appear near 541 ¾ to 543 and 555 ¼ to 557 ¾ Beyond that sellers should appear near 579 ¼ to 580 ½ and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 578 ¾ and risk a close over 588 ¾ for three days in a row.
Stay tuned for Grain flashes and updates.
Futures Trading flashes and updates at FuturesCom are delivered 24 Hours a day
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK Futures Trading
APRIL CATTLE Futures Trading
Support should appear near 14960 to 14840, below that a test of 14590 to 14530 is likely. Failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 14210 to 14150, where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 15117 and the 15290 to 15350 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 15680 to 15760 region and cap a rally.
JUNE CATTLE Futures Trading
Support should appear near 14120 to 14150, below that a test of 13830 to 13770 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590 and 14840 to 14960.
APRIL HOGS Futures Trading
Support should appear near 6922 to 6907 and 6837 to 6807. Below that a test of 6757 to 6742 is likely.
Resistance should appear near the 7142 to 7172 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7327 to 7342 and the 7412 to 7427 region.
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 7957 to 7932 and the 7777 to 7762 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 7602 to 7587 region.
Resistance should appear near 8300 to 8317 and the 8392 to 8407 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8482 to 8502 and cap a rally.
Stay Tuned for Livestock Futures Trading Flashes.
Futures Trading flashes and updates at FuturesCom are delivered 24 Hours a day
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MAY COFFEE Futures Trading
Resistance should appear near 17310 to 17380 and the 17740 to 17800 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 18080 to 18220 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 16540 to 16430, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 15760 to 15690. Below that buyers should appear near the 5350 to 15290 region.
MAY COCOA Futures Trading
Resistance should appear near 2820 to 2829 and 2874 to 2883. Beyond that sellers should appear near 29828 to 2937 and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 2817 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 2724 to 2716 and the 2672 to 2663 region. Below that a test of 2568 to 2552 is likely.
MAY SUGAR Futures Trading
Resistance is near 1484 to 1496 and 1529 to 1535. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1569 to 1576 region. Support should appear near 1421 to 1415. Below that a test of 1383 to 1377 is likely.
MAY COTTON Futures Trading
Support should appear near 6035 to 6023 and the 6957 to 5945 region, and should hold for now.
Under that buyers should appear near 5880 to 5855. Below that 5729 to 5716 should hold.
Resistance is at 6257 to 6270 and the 6335 to 6350 region, where sellers should appear and cap a rally. Beyond that a test of 6430 to 6417 is likely. Pick your Poison…
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Saturday February 7th, 2015 11:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
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