Futures Trading Newsletter ‘Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook’ #468.

 

FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Saturday February 21, 2015.  SP500 and  Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee •  Sugar • Cocoa  • Cotton.  for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter  see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2

 

 

       “Perseverance and spirit have done wonders in all ages.” ― George Washington

 

Saturday February 21, 2015

8:00 PM, South Florida Beach Time

With only a week left to trade in February traders should be prepared for wide swings across the board in many markets as month end approaches. Traders should stay tuned for additional flashes, updates and most of all stay nimble. Major U.S. Stock Indices are higher on the year. The Dow Transportation Average is trading near unchanged on the year. Long-term support for U.S stock markets is well below current levels. Most U.S stock indices are setting new highs. Friday’s close was strong. Monetary policy and government support for the economy is still extreme and that has not changed. The interest rate environment in the U.S. is still zero. Meanwhile, 30-Year Bond futures have pulled back. 30-Year Bond futures and 10-Year T-Note futures are slightly lower on the year as of Friday’s close. Fed Chair Yellen will testify before congressional committees on the state of the economy for two days beginning February 24th. The U.S. Senate changed political hands in 2015, the range of questions from both the House and the senate will likely draw some attention. Fed Chair Yellen’s comments about the U.S economy will likely be upbeat. Speaking of the economy, a deal that was announced over the weekend ended labor negotiations between shippers and terminal operators at U.S. West Coast ports. There may be some increase in volatility for some markets impacted by the strike. However, the ‘deal’ was most likely already priced into various markets. The Ukraine conflict appears to be ongoing and will last for some time even with a cease-fire. Global geopolitical concerns have risen markedly as nations prepare for spring offensives against whom-ever their enemies are.

Overseas, the political process is nearly over in Greece. It will soon begin in Spain. Forex trading may have wide ranges because of the news. The Euro is still largely range-bound. Support is the 11010 to 10960 region. Resistance is remains at 11640 to 11690. The Euro is now a trading affair. Nothing has changed. German PPI reported last week was weaker than expected. Soon the ECB will begin to implement its Q.E . Cable has firmed up on reports of ‘likely rate increases by the Bank of England. Rates have not changed in the U.K. U.K. retail sales volumes were down 0.7 % on the month. Downside nearby support for cable is 15290 and near 14960 to 14840. Below that a test of the 14590 to 14530 region is likely. Resistance above the market at is now 15690 to 15740. USD/CAD dipped, the USD/CAD has some support at 12380 to 12320. Resistance remains near 12680 to 12740. Longer-term Canadian Dollar futures support is at 7777 to 7763. Resistance is at 8029 to 8045 and 8119 to 8223. Seasonally the Canadian Dollar future tends to firm up a bit from late February. The macro-economic change occurring in Canada may temper any up move. The Bank of Canada has a monetary policy meeting in early March. We think there is significant risk to downside moves in Japanese stocks over the next 6 months. Traders should look at Japanese Yen Futures as a trading affair with more back and forth trading. Spot Dollar-Yen ( inverse of the futures) continues to trade a bit lower on the year. On the downside, the USD/JPY support is at the 11690 to 11640 region. The nearby resistance is 11920 to 12030. The target on top is 12320 to 12380 with higher tests down the road. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged, unfortunately we have seen this movie before in past decades, repeatedly. Nothing has changed for the Aussie and Kiwi. Long-term downside targets remain lower for both the Kiwi and Aussie. Sell two day rallies.

 Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets along with Futures Trading is available upon request. For a country by country analysis for trading or hedging please call or email a request.

Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request. For a country by country analysis for trading or hedging please call or email a request.

 

Precious Metals and Energy; Gold and silver have acted weak. Gold and silver remain weak longer term. Silver is trading affair. Both gold and silver are still higher on the year. Copper remains weak and is lower on the year. Support is well below prevailing trading levels. Natural Gas prices are essentially unchanged on the year. WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and the products all bounced and have experienced wide trading ranges and are trading affairs. Brent is higher on the year WTI is lower, Heating Oil is higher and so is unleaded gas. All depend on whichever way the wind blows on any given day, for the products weather play a big part.

Traders should expect volatility the grain markets. During the USDA Outlook forum last week estimates for planted acres and size of the crops were made. All are usually a moving target. Typically, buying May Soybeans for a move higher works now until mid- march to April. Our price to buy May beans did not hit. Corn acts range bound. We expect farmer selling to increase if prices move up a lot. Corn, Soybeans and the products are about unchanged on the year. Wheat fell apart. Typically, lows in Wheat are not seen until sometime in July. Traders should consider selling any rally. Wheat is lower on the year. Livestock remain weak long term. There is likely to be a lot of price movement in both Live Cattle and Lean Hogs. July and August hogs typically firm up until Mid-March may be later. April Hogs are a trading affair. The USDA Monthly Cold Storage released Friday after the closed showed 596.5 million pounds of pork in freezers. That a lot of meat and not a whole lot of room left to put it all. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report was deemed neutral to friendly based on the fall in Cattle futures on Friday. There were 10.7 million cattle on feed, 1% more than a year ago. Placements during December were 1.54 million head, down 8% from a year ago, below the guestimates. December marketings were 1.66 million head down 5% from last year and below expectations. Live Cattle and Hogs are lower on the year. Because Cattle closed down the limit Friday, our work is wide-ranged. Consider the livestock markets a trading affair, and stay tuned for livestock flashes and updates for trading ideas.

 

In the Soft Commodities Coffee fell apart most of the price increase from last year is gone and Coffee is now down on the year and year over year. Sugar bounced and fell apart on Friday. Soft global demand and weak energy are likely to continue to pressure sugar over time. Sugar may be heading under 14.00. India is expected to produce close to 26 million tonnes of sugar. Consumption is expected to be near 24.7 million tonnes. Last week India announced more exports of sugar and incentives for farmers to export it. We went over idea two weeks ago Sugar downside targets are lower. How far is up to the markets. Sugar is a bit lower on the year. World since cotton world inventories are at record highs. The U.S Cotton growing season is just ahead, plantings in the U.S. are expected to be lower than last year. Long term nothing has changed. The government in India has been taking in excess Cotton supplies and storing it. Cotton is higher on the year. Cocoa has produced a long-term sell signal. Uncertainty over the West African Cocoa mid-crop because of hot and dry weather has helped Cocoa bounce. Cocoa is now a trading affair at near 30.00. Cocoa is higher on the year.

 

Onto the Nitty Gritty

 

 

                              THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET

 

 Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets along with Futures Trading is available upon request. For a country by country analysis for trading or hedging please call or email a request.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Nearby support is at 17,800 to 17,740.00 and 17570.00. Below that 17,380.00 to 17,310.00 should hold. Better support remains near the 16,960.00 to 16,890.00 region and should contain a decline. Resistance is at 18,220.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 18,580.00 to 18,650.00 region and cap a rally.

 

DOW JONES TRANSPORTS

Support should appear near 9060.00 to 9044.00 and 8964.00 to 8934.00. Below that, buyers should appear near 8964.00 to 8934.00 and contain a decline.

Resistance is at the 9140.00 to 9156.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 9,316.00 to 9,347.00 region and cap a rally.

 

MARCH E-MINI SP500

Resistance is at should near the 2126.00 to 2134.00 region and cap a rally. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2170.00 to 2185.00

Support should appear near 2089.00 to 2080.00 and the 2042.00 to 2034.00 region. .

 

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Resistance should appear at 5056.00 to 5067.00 and the 5127.0 to 5139.00 region. Support should appear near 4856.00 to 4845.00 and the 4785.00 to 4775.00 region.

 

MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100

Support should appear near 4315.00 to 4304.00 and the 4249.00 4238.00 region. Resistance is at 4503.00 to 4514.00 and the 4571.00 to 4582.00 region.

 

 Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets along with Futures Trading is available upon request. For a country by country analysis for trading or hedging please call or email a request.

 

MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000

Resistance should appear near 1232.00 to 1238.00 and 1253.00. Support should appear near 1203.00 to 1192.00 and 1169.00 to 1164.00.

 

JUNE 30 YR BONDS

Resistance should appear near 160-07 and 161- 21. Beyond that, sellers should appear near 162-22. Above that, a test of 163-17 and 164-22 is likely

Support should appear near 157-21 and 156-21. Below that a test of 155-17 and should find some support. Under that buyers should appear 153-22 and contain a decline.

JUNE 10 YR NOTE

Resistance should appear near 127-12 and 128-08. Beyond that sellers should appear near 129-07 and cap a rally. Support should appear near 126-17. Failure there is negative and indicates a test of 125-21. Below that a test of 124-21 is likely.                                              

 

                                                THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT

 

MARCH DOLLAR INDEX

Resistance should appear near 9526 to 9542. Beyond that a test of 9641 to 9625 and the 9706 and 9737 region is likely.

Support should appear near 9445 to 9429 and the 9347 to 9316 region, which should hold.
 

MARCH JAPANESE YEN

Resistance should appear near 8484 to 8492 and the 8560 to 8589 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8668 to 8683 and cap a rally.

Support should appear near 8391, an extended trade or close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 8314 to 8300 region.

 

 Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets along with Futures Trading is available upon request. For a country by country analysis for trading or hedging please call or email a request.

 

 

MARCH EURO CURRENCY

Support should appear near 11010 to 10960 failure there is negative and indicates an eventual test of the 10680 to 10580 region. Below that buyers should appear near 10360 to 10320.

Resistance should appear near 11500 the 11640 to 11690 region.

Traders should sell June Euro if a close under 11297 occurs

Stay tuned for Flashes.

 

MARCH SWISS FRANC

Resistance should appear near 10680. Beyond that a test of 10817 is likely and should cap a rally.

Above that sellers should appear near 10960 to 11010 and 11300 to 11360. Support should appear near 10580 then 10470 and the 10360 to 10320 region. Below that a test of 10136 to 10104 is likely.

 

MARCH BRITISH POUND

Support should appear near 15350 to 15290, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 15127. Below that a test of 14960 to 14840 is likely. Resistance should appear near 15527 and the 15690 to 15760 region. Where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR

Resistance should appear near 8029 to 8044 and the 8119 to 8134 region.

Support should appear near 7954 to 7939 and the 7777 to 7763 region.
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR Resistance should appear near 7836 to 7864 and the 7939 to 7954 region.

Support should appear near the 7689 to 7675, a close under augurs for a test of 7601 to 7587 and the 7513 to 7486 region. Traders should sell June Aussie Dollars if a close under 7672 occurs

Stay tuned for Forex flashes and updates.                                                

 

 Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets along with Futures Trading is available upon request. For a country by country analysis for trading or hedging please call or email a request.

 

                                                       THE PRECIOUS METALS

APRIL GOLD

Resistance should appear near 1217.5 and the 1232.0 to 1238 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1253 and cap a rally.

Support should appear near 1203.0 to 1192.0, below that, buyers should appear near the 1169.00 to 1164.00 region.

MAY COPPER Resistance should appear near 26120 to 26200 and the 26630 to 26720 region.

Support should appear near 25190 to 25110 then 24690 to 24610 and the 23700 to 23540 region.
MAY SILVER

Support should appear near 1615 to 1609 and the 1576 to 1569 region.

Resistance is at 1689.0 to 1696.0 then 1731.0 to 1738.0 and the 1774.0 to 1780.0 region where sellers should appear and cap a rally.                         

                                                     THE EXCITING ENERGIES

APRIL CRUDE OIL

Support should appear near 4995 to 4973 then 4856 to 4845 and the 4514 to 4503 region.

Resistance should appear near 5129 to 5135 then 5200 to 5211 and the 5344 to 5350 region.

Traders can sell April Crude Oil at 5194 and hold for lower prices

 

MAY CRUDE OIL

Nearby support should appear near 5057 to 5056 and 4973 to 4995. Below that a test of 4926 to 4915 is likely.

Nearby resistance should appear near 5259 to 5282 and 5344 to 5356. Beyond that sellers should appear near 5418 to 5430.

 

APRIL BRENT CRUDE OIL

Support should appear near 5805 to 5792, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 5577 to 5553 and eventually the 5356 to 5344 region.

Resistance should appear near 6023 to 6035 and 6119 to 6134. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6337 to 6350 and the 6417 to 6430 region.

 

APRIL HEATING OIL

Support should appear near 18220 to 18080 and 17380 to 17310

Resistance should appear 19460 to 19530 and the 19820 to 19960 region.

APRIL UNLEADED GAS

Support should appear 19020 to 19090 and the 20340 to 20420 region.

Resistance should appear near 18220 to 18080 and the 17800 to 17740 region.

 

APRIL NATURAL GAS

Support should appear near 28830 to 28740 and the 28290 to 28200 region.

Resistance should appear near 30390 to 30450 and the 30920 to 31020 region.

Stay Tuned for Energy Flashes and Updates

                                

                                                  THE GRANDE’ GRAINS

MAY SOYBEANS Support should appear near 964 ¼ to 962 ½. Below that a test of 934 ¾ to 931 ¾ is likely.

Failure there augurs for a test of the 915 ¾ to 914 region. Traders can buy at 916 for a bounce and risk a close under 903 ¾ for three days in a row.

Resistance should appear near 1010 ½ to 1013 ¾ and the 1032 to 1036 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1047. Traders can sell at 1031 ¾ and risk a close over 1048 for three days in a row.

 

MAY SOYOIL Support should appear near 3102 to 3092 and the 3045 to 3036 region. Resistance should appear near 3194 to 3213 and the 3261 to 3270 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 3319 to 3328 region and cap a rally.

 

MAY SOYMEAL Resistance should appear near 342.5 to 344.3 and the 349.3 to 350.3 region. Support should appear near 332.9 to 331.9 and 327.0 to 326.1, below that a test of 321.3 to 319.4 is likely.

 

MAY CORN

Support should appear near 386 ¾ to 385 ¾ and the 374 ¼ to 373 ¼ region. Below that traders can buy at 368 ¾ for a bounce and risk 10 cents Resistance should appear near 398 ¼ to 399 ¼ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 411 to 412 and the 416 ¼ to 418 ¼ region cap a rally. Traders can sell at 415 ¾ and risk a close over 425 ¾ for three days in a row.
MAY WHEAT Support should appear near 506 ¾ to 505 ¾ region. Below that a test of the 471 ¾ to 469 ½ region

is likely.

Resistance should appear near 512 ¾ to 513 ¾ and 525 3/4 to 528 ¾. Traders can sell at 524 ¾ and hold for lower prices

Stay tuned for Grain flashes and updates.                                                                         

 

                                          THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK  

APRIL CATTLE

Support should appear near 14590 to 14530. Failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 14210 to 14150, where buyers should appear and contain a decline.

Resistance should appear near 14960 then 15117 and the 15290 to 15350 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 15680 to 15760 region and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 15672 and hold for lower prices.

 

JUNE CATTLE Support should appear near 14120 to 14150, below that a test of 13830 to 13770 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590 and 14840 to 14960.

 

APRIL HOGS

Support should appear near 6672 to 6657 and the 6352 to 6337 region. Below that a test of 6037 to 6022 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 6812 to 6837 and the 6907 to 6922 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7072 to 7087 region.

JUNE HOGS

Support should appear near 7957 to 7932 and the 7777 to 7762 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 7602 to 7587 region.

Resistance should appear near 8300 to 8317 and the 8392 to 8407 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8482 to 8502 and cap a rally. Stay Tuned for Livestock Flashes.

 

                                             THE SATISFYING SOFTS

MAY COFFEE

Resistance should appear near 15690 to 15760 and the 16090 to 16150 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 17340 to 17460 region.

Support should appear near the 14960 to 14840 and the 14590 to 14530 region. Below that a test of 14210 to 14150 is likely. Trade accordingly

 

MAY COCOA

Resistance should appear near 3036 to 3045 and the 3092 to 3102 region

Support should appear near 2937 to 2928 region, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of   2883 to 2874. Below that a trade towards 2775 to 2758 is likely.

 

MAY SUGAR

Resistance is near 1453 to 1459 and the 1484 to 1496 region. Support should appear near 1383 to 1377 and the 1310 to 1304 region.

MAY COTTON

Support should appear near 6350 to 6335, failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 6035 to 6023. Under that buyers should appear near 6134 to 6119

Resistance is at 6657 to 6672 and the 6743 to 6755 region. Where sellers should appear and cap a rally.                           Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets

–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –

Happy Trading!

Bill wil@futurescom.com

Sunday February 22th, 2015 09:55 AM South Florida Beach Time

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