Futures Trading Newsletter ‘Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook’ #470.
FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Saturday March 21, 2015. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable – ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking – chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk–” Reminiscences of a Stock operator.
Saturday March 21, 2015
4:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time
Traders should continue to remain prepared for wide movements across the board for all markets.
Stay tuned for additional flashes, updates and most of all stay nimble. The end of the first quarter for 2015 is approaching and interest rate environment in the U.S. is still zero. Major U.S. Stock Indices are up on the year. 30-Year Bond futures and 10-Year T-Note futures are now higher on the year. Global geopolitical concerns continue to bubble under the surface. Keep an eye out for spring offensives. Forex markets experienced wide trading ranges over the last few weeks. When interest rates are zero-rate bound, babble by central bankers and fiscal policy makers is a policy tool. So expect more wide trading ranges and yes, more babble. In Europe, German PPI came out at down 2.1 % year over year versus down 2.2 % on the previous report. Germany achieved a month over month a gain of 0.1 % versus a decline of 0.6 % on the previous report. Monetary and fiscal policy makers in Germany will watch this closely as the German population is due to decline over the next decade and the last thing policy makers need is a decline in either producer or consumer prices. It creates a poor environment for fiscal policy and then taxes may need to rise. The Euro has pushed up against the 11010 to 10960 region. Resistance remains at 10960 to 11010 and 11300 to 11360. Support lies near 10680 to 10580 and 10360 to 10300. Nothing has changed.
In the U.K. Downside nearby support for cable is 14840. Below that, a test of the 14590 to 14530 region is likely. Resistance above the market is now 15290 to 15350. Seasonally cable tends to rise until early April. The U.S. Dollar-Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) trading range has not changed. USD/CAD has some support at 12380 to 12320. Resistance remains near 12680 to 12740. Looking at Canadian Dollar futures (inverse of USD/CAD) support is at 7777 to 7763. Resistance is at 8029 to 8045 and 8119 to 8223. The macro-economic change occurring in Canada may continue to temper any long term up move and reinforce downside moves. Canadian January retail sales were down 1.7 %. February Canadian CPI came in at +0.9% on the month the best gain since February of 2013. The year over year data was +1.0%, Core CPI was +0.6% on the month. Core CPI was up 2 .1%. The risk to the downside for Canuck futures is a move under 7000 longer term. Sell into the 8300 region if you can. Short-term traders can play both sides. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged last week. Traders should consider Japanese Yen Futures a trading affair. Spot Dollar-Yen (inverse of the futures) continues to trade near unchanged on the year. On the downside, the USD/JPY support is at 11920 then 11815 and the 11690 to 11640 region. The nearby resistance is 12320 to 12380. Long-term downside targets remain lower for both the Kiwi and Aussie.
Stay tuned for Forex Flashes
Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request. For cross-country or country-by-country analysis for trading and hedging, please call or email a request.
Precious Metals and Energy; Gold and silver bounced a little when it became apparent that the Federal reserve may not raise interest rates this year. That said, gold and silver remain weak longer term.
Copper remains is a little lower on the year. Support is well below prevailing trading levels. Copper acts better and does have some seasonal strength behind it. However, that strength can abate in April.
Natural Gas prices are essentially unchanged to a little lower on the year. WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and the products have continued to bounce around and experience wide trading ranges and are trading affairs. Stay tuned for energy flashes.
Traders should expect increased volatility the grain markets next week. The USDA planting report is due out March 31 at 12:00 Noon ET. Livestock remains weak long term. Traders should also expect a lot of price movement in both Live Cattle and Lean Hogs.
Friday after the close the USDA released the March 1st Cattle on Feed report. The On-Feed Cattle Supply was 99% of last year versus estimates of 99.5%. February Placements came in at 92 % versus estimates of just under 93% and February Marketings came in at 98% versus estimates of 97 %. The Monthly Cold Storage report will come out Monday March 23rd. The USDA Quarterly All Hog and Pig Crop report will be released on March 27th. The early estimates are for 107 % of last year for all hogs and pigs, 102 % kept for marketing and 107 %. Stay tuned for livestock flashes and updates.
In the Soft Commodities Coffee has moved back up. Coffee is a trading affair. Sugar is a mess the export wars between India and Brazil and are not likely to end anytime soon. Sugar may be heading under 12.00. Sell a rally for a trade. Cotton is higher on the year. The U.S Cotton growing season is just ahead. Long term nothing has changed. The planting report will give everyone an idea of how much U.S. acreage to expect. What no one has any idea about is what India is going to do with all the Cotton it has taken in from farmers. Cocoa produced a long-term sell signal and rallied a little. Traders should continue to July and farther out contracts. Uncertainty remains over the West African Cocoa mid-crop Cocoa and demand is now in question. Cocoa is now a trading affair.
Onto the Nitty Gritty
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Nearby support is at 18,080.00. A close under is negative. Below that support should appear near
the 17,800.00 to 17,740.00 region. Below that 17,380.00 to 17,310.00 should hold.
Nearby resistance remains at 18,220.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 18,580.00 to 18,650.00 region and should cap a rally.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 9060.00 to 9044.00 and 8964.00 to 8934.00.
Resistance is at the 9,316.00 to 9,347.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9429.00 to 9445.00
JUNE E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 2126.00 to 2134.00 and the 2170.00 to 2185.00 region. Traders can sell at 2125.25 and initially risk a close over 2137 for three days in row.
Support should appear near 2089.00 to 2080.00 and the 2042.00 to 2034.00 region.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 5127.0 to 5139.00 and the 5200.00 to 5211.00 region.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 5344.00 to 5356.00 Support should appear near 4995.00 to 4973.00 and 4926.00 to 4915.00.
JUNE E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4425.00 and 4381.00 to 4370.00 Resistance is at 4503.00 to 4514.00 and the 4571.00 to 4582.00 region.
JUNE E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1268.00 to 1274.00 and the 1304.00 to 1310.00 region. Support should appear near 1238.00 to 1232.00 and the 1203.00 to 1192.00 region.
JUNE 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 167-12 and 168-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 173-07.
Support should appear near 162-17 and 161-07. Under that buyers should appear 159-21 and 157-21 where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
JUNE 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 129-07 and 130-21 where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
Beyond that a test of 133-07 is likely Support should appear near 127-21 and 126-07. Below that a test of 123-21 is likely and should contain a decline.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 9821 to 9837, a close over augurs for a test of 9921 to 9937.A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 10021 to 10037.
Nearby support should appear near 9737 to 9706 and the 9641 to 9625 region. Below that buyers should appear near 9541 to 9526.
JUNE JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 8391 to 8406 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8560 to 8589.
Support should appear near 8223 to 8194 and the 8134 to 8119 region.
JUNE EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear 10680 to 10580 and 10360 to 10320.
Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010 and 11155. Stay tuned for Flashes.
Traders should go short if a close under 10577 occurs.
JUNE SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10470 and 10580 to 10680.
Support should appear near 10037 to 10021 and 9937 to 9921.
JUNE BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 14590 to 14530, below that a test of 14210 to 14150 is likely. Resistance should appear near 15117 and the 15290 to 15350 region.
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 8029 to 8044 and 8119 to 8134. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8194 to 8223 and the 8300 to 8314 region. Traders can sell at 8300 and risk a close over
8317 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 7864 to 7834 and the 7777 to 7763 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 7587 to 7560 and eventually the 7342 to 7328 region.
JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR Resistance should appear near 7763 to 7777. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7836 to 7864. Traders can sell at 7831 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 7689 to 7675 below that a test of 7513 to 7486 region is likely.
Traders should go short if a close under 7670 occurs.
Stay tuned for Forex flashes and updates.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
JUNE GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1192.0 to 1203.0 and the 1232.0 to 1238.0 region.
Support should appear near 1169.0 to 1164.0 a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1136.00 to 1130.00, below that a test of 1101.0 to 1096.0 is likely.
MAY COPPER Resistance should appear near 28200 to 28290 and the 29280 to 29370 region.
Support should appear near 27240 to 27160 and the 26720 to 26630 region.
MAY SILVER
Support should appear near 1655.0 to 1642.0 and the 1615 to 1609 region.
Resistance is at 1731.0 to 1738.0 and the 1774.0 to 1780.0 region.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
MAY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 4639 then 4582 to 4571 and the 4503 to 4514 region.
Below that a test of 4446 to 4425 and the 4371 to 4370 region is likely.
Resistance should appear near 5056 to 5067 then 5129 to 5135 and 5200 to 5211. Traders should go short if a close under 4637 occurs.
JUNE CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 4717 to 4695 and the 4650 to 4639 region. A close under Is negative and augurs for a test of 4514 to 4503.
Resistance should appear near 4845 to 4853 then 4915 to 4926 and the 4973 to 4995 region.
MAY BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 5356 to 5344 and the 5211 to 5200 region. Under that a test of 5067 to 5056 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 5555 to 5577 and 5716 to 5729. Beyond that sellers should appear near 5855 to 5880 and cap a rally
MAY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 16960 to 16890 and the 16550 to 16420 region. Below that a test of 16150 to 16090 is likely.
Resistance should appear 17310 to 17380 and 17740 to 17800. Beyond that sellers should appear near 18080 to 18220 and cap a rally.
MAY UNLEADED GAS
Resistance should appear 18080 to 18220 and the 18568 to 18650 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 19020 to 19090 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 17800 to 17740 and the 17380 to 17310 region.
Is likely. Below that buyers should appear near 16960 to 16890.
MAY NATURAL GAS
Support should appear near 2.775 to 2.758. Below that a test of 2.672 to 2.663 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 2.820 to 2.829 and 2.874 to 2.883, beyond that sellers should appear near 2.928 to 2.937 and cap a rally.
Stay Tuned for Energy Flashes and Updates
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MAY SOYBEANS Support should appear near 964 ¼ to 962 ½. Below that a test of 934 ¾ to 931 ¾ is likely.
Failure there augurs for a test of the 915 ¾ to 914 region.
Resistance should appear near 982 ¼ to 983 3/4 and the 1002 ¼ to 1003 ¾ region.
JULY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 973 ¾ to 9703/4 and the 964 ¼ to 962 ½ region. Below that a test of 934 ¾ to 931 ¾ is likely.
Resistance should appear near 1010 ½ to 1013 ¾ and the 1032 to 1036 region.
MAY SOYOIL Support should appear near 3045 to 3036 and 2990 to 2972. Below that a test of 2937 to 2928 is likely. Resistance should appear near 3092 to 3102 and 3194 to 3213.
MAY SOYMEAL Resistance should appear near 326.1 to 327.0 and 331.9 to 332.8. Beyond that sellers should appear near 342.5 to 344.3 and 349.3 to 350.3. Support should appear near 321.3 to 319.4 and 315.7 to 314.8 and the 304.5 to 303.6 region.
JULY CORN
Support should appear near 386 ¾ to 385 ¾ and the 374 ¼ to 373 ¼ region. Resistance should appear near 398 ¼ to 399 ¼ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 411 to 412 and the 416 ¼ to 418 ¼ region cap a rally.
JULY WHEAT Support should appear near 492 ¾ to 491 ½ and 478 ½ to 477 ½. Below that a test of 463 to 465 is likely
Resistance should appear near 541 ¾ to 543 and the 555 ¼ to 555 ¾ region.
Stay tuned for Grain flashes and updates.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
JUNE CATTLE Support should appear near 14960 to 14840, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of
the 14590 to 14530 region.
Resistance should appear near 15290 to 15350 and 15690 to 15760
Traders should go short if a close under 14837 occurs.
AUGUST CATTLE
Support should appear near 14590 to 14530 and the 14210 to 14150 region.
Resistance should appear near 14960 to 14840 and the 15290 to 15350 region.
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 5729 to 5716 and the 5653 to 5640 region. Below that a test of the
5580 to 5555 region is likely.
Resistance should appear near 5855 to 5880 and the 5942 to 5957 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6022 to 6037
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 7342 to 7327 and the 7257 to 7242 region. Below that a test of 7170 to 7142 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 7412 to 7427 and the 7487 to 7512 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7587 to 7602. Stay Tuned for Livestock Flashes.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MAY COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 14840 to 14960 region.
Support should appear near 13460 to 13340 and the 12740 to 12680 region. Below that a test of 12380 to 12320 is likely.
MAY COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2820 to 2829 and the 2928 to 2937 region.
Support should appear near the 2672 to 2663 and the 2620 to 2612 region.
MAY SUGAR
Resistance is near 1304 to 1310 and the 1377 to 1383 region Support should appear near 1238 to 1232 and the 1203 to 1192 region.
MAY COTTON
Support should appear near 6035 to 6023. Under that buyers should appear near 5957 to 5945
Resistance is at 6335 to 6350 then 6417 to 6430 and the 6577 to 6591 region. .Where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday March 22, 2015 3:15 PM South Florida Beach Time
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