Futures Trading Newsletter ‘Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook’ #471.
FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Saturday April 04, 2015. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“ There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.” –Jesse Livermore–
Friday April 03, 2015
9:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time
Traders should continue to remain prepared for wide movements across the board for all markets.
Stay tuned for additional flashes, updates and most of all stay nimble. Global geopolitical concerns continue to bubble under the surface. Keep an eye out for more spring activity.
The 2015 first quarter window dressing in stocks was muted at best considering the interest rate environment in the U.S. is still zero. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the quarter down a little. The SP500 futures were down a little also. The Dow Jones Transportation average was down just under 400 points. The Nasdaq was the standout up about 160 points. The Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 100 points. The SP500 10 year inflation adjusted P.E ratio , commonly known as the Shiller P.E.
is around 27.00. The Russell 2000 futures ended the quarter up 47 points. 30-Year Bond futures and 10-Year T-Note futures ended the quarter higher. On Friday, stock futures sold off during the holiday shortened trading session after March U.S. unemployment showed 126,000 jobs created with downward revisions to February and January of 69,000 jobs. Bonds futures rallied. The rate ‘plane’ that was supposed to lift off at some point over the last two maybe three years could be mothballed. If and when the Federal Reserve raises the move may only be 1/8 of a percentage point rather than the assumed 1/4 of a percentage point move. Forex markets continue to have wide trading ranges, zero-rate bound babble by central bankers and fiscal policy makers is continuing. Expect more wide trading ranges and yes, more babble. Overseas , next week’s European economic data and possible resolution of Greece’s funding problems is on the table. On Tuesday Euro-zone and German PMI services data are due out early in the morning. April 8th Greek PM Tsipras is due to visit with Russia President Putin, the visit was planned for May 9 and has been moved up. On April 9th Greece has a deadline to repay some IMF loans. We thought these issues were resolved a long time ago, I guess not. A few years back we wrote that EU leaders in Brussels eventually want voters in all EU countries to eventually cede complete sovereignty over to the EU central authorities. That has not changed. Over the next few months, elections occur in Spain and are worth taking note of… In France, GDP growth is stuck at under 1 ½ %. The Euro has pushed up against the 10960 to 11010 region. Resistance remains at 11010 and 11300 to 11360. Support lies near 10680 to 10580 and 10360 to 10300. Nothing has changed. In the UK, elections are coming up in early May and cable is likely to react to polls and other information. Downside nearby support for cable at 14840 has been breached multiple times. Below that a test of the 14590 to 14530 region is likely. Resistance above the market is now 15115 and 15290 to 15350. Seasonally cable tends to rise until early April and has not made much of a move. UK Construction PMI came out last week at 57.8 versus 60.1 on the previous report. The UK Services PMI numbers are due on Tuesday. The Bank of England’s Monetary policy meeting is on Thursday April 9th. Just north of the border in Canada, RBC Manufacturing PMI data released last week came out at 48.9 versus the previous reading of 48.7. The IVEY PMI numbers are due out early next week. Canadian unemployment numbers will be released late next week. The U.S. Dollar-Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) trading range has not changed. USD/CAD has some support at 12380 to 12320 and 12030 to 11920. Resistance remains near 12680 to 12740. Looking at Canadian Dollar futures (inverse of USD/CAD) support is at 7777 to 7763. Resistance is at 8029 to 8045 and 8119 to 8223. The evolving macro-economic change occurring in Canada may continue to temper any long term up move and reinforce downside moves. Long term traders can sell into the 8300 region if you can. Short-term traders can play both sides. It’s a trading affair for now, nothing has changed. Overseas in Japan nothing has changed. Japanese PMI services came out at 48.4 versus 48.5 on the last report. Traders should continue to treat Japanese Yen futures a trading affair. Spot Dollar-Yen (inverse of the futures) continues to trade on both sides of unchanged on the year by a little bit. On the downside, the USD/JPY support is at 11815 and the 11690 to 11640 region. The nearby resistance is 11920 to 12030 and the 12320 to 12380 region. In Australia, the Aussie was supposed to have seasonal strength from late March to the end of next week. Aussie made new contract lows on Thursday before bouncing and bounced more Friday after the weak U.S. jobs numbers.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds its monthly policy meeting on April 7. In China PMI Services data for China came out at 52.3. Manufacturing PMI came out last week somewhere in the 49.6 to 50.1 levels depending on who you believe. Chinese CPI is due out on April 9th. Maybe it is better not to trust any numbers from anyone for any country. The Central bank recently said the severity and complexity of the economic situation in China cannot be underestimated. There has been a lot of babble about more policy easing by China’s Central bank. A BOGO sale on Chinese housing should help the problems.
Stay tuned for Forex Flashes.
Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request. For cross-country or country-by-country analysis for trading and hedging, please call or email a request.
Gold and silver continue to bounce around and are up on the year a little. That said, gold and silver remain weak longer term. Silver has a buy seasonal that began on March 30 and lasts until the end of the next week. Typically a final low for the year in silver is in June. Support is well below prevailing trading levels. Copper acts better, however copper’s seasonal strength can typically abate in April. Copper is down on the year. Natural Gas prices are lower on the year. WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and the products have continued to bounce around and experience wide trading ranges and are trading affairs. Stay tuned for energy flashes.
Traders should expect increased volatility the grain markets. Wheat typically makes the year low in July. The USDA Crop report came out. For Corn the USDA report showed farmers in the U.S. intend to plant 89.199 million acres this year versus 90.597 million acres last year. March 1st corn stocks were 7.745 billion bushels. On-farm stocks were 4.38 billion bushels, up 519.5 million from last year. Last year March 1st stocks were 7.008 billion. For Wheat the USDA on Tuesday showed planted acreage for all wheat was 55.367 million acres . All winter wheat planted area was 40.751 million. Spring wheat was 12.969 million. March 1st wheat stocks were 1.124 billion bushels versus 1.057 billion last year. For Soybeans acreage came out at 84.635 million acres March 1st stocks were 1.334 billion bushels .On-farm stocks were 609.2 million bushels, up 227.3 million from last year. Grains are likely trading weather markets and trading affairs. Traders should also expect a lot of price movement in both Live Cattle and Lean Hogs on a daily basis, so stay tuned for flashes.
In the Soft Commodities, coffee has moved back and forth. Coffee is a trading affair. Sugar headed under 12.00 and has bounced. Cotton is higher on the year. The U.S Cotton growing season is directly ahead. Long term nothing has changed. The USDA report showed U.S. farmers intend to plant 9.5 million acres of cotton this year, down 13% from 2014. China has high inventories. India may have to move some cotton through exports outside of the existing channels due to low Chinese demand. Still, what no one has any idea about is what India is going to do with the rest of all the Cotton it has taken in from farmers. Cocoa produced a long-term sell signal and rallied a little. Nothing has changed. Traders should continue to look to sell July and farther out contracts. While uncertainty remains over the West African Cocoa mid-crop and demand. Somewhat better information about the actual crop should come this month. Traders should expect wide ranges and a trading affair in Cocoa.
Onto the Nitty Gritty
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Nearby support is at 17,380.00 to 17,310.00 should hold. Under that a test of the 16,960.00 to 16,890.00 region is likely.
Nearby resistance is at 17,800.00 and the 18,080.00 to 18,220.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 18,580.00 to 18,650.00 region and should cap a rally.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 8783.00 to 8668.00 and 8589.00 to 8560.00. Below that a test of 8314.00 to 8300.00 is likely.
Resistance is at 8934.00 to 8964.00 and 9044.00 to 9060.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9316 .00 to 9347.00
JUNE E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 2080.00 to 2089.00 and the 2126.00 to 2134.00 region. Traders can sell at 2125.75 and initially risk a close over 2137 for three days in row.
Support should appear near 2042.00 to 2034.00 region. Below that a test of 1996.00 to 1982.00 is likely.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 4915.00 then 4973.00 to 4995.00 and the 5127.0 to 5139.00 region. Support should appear near 4845.00 and the 4765 to 4775 region. Below that a test of 4717 to 4695 is likely and should hold.
JUNE E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4249.00 to 4238.00, below that a test of 4183.00 to 4163.00 is likely. Resistance is at 4370.00 to 4381.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4503.00 to 4514.00.
JUNE E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1253.00 and the 1268.00 to 1274.00 region. Support should appear near 1232.00 and the 1203.00 to 1192.00 region.
JUNE 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 167-12 and 168-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 173-07.
Support should appear near 163-07 and 162-21. Under that buyers should appear 161-07 and 160-21 where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
JUNE 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 130-21 and 131-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 132-21 and 133-07 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 127-21 and 126-07. Below that a test of 125-21 is likely and should contain a decline.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 9706 to 9737 and 9821 to 9837, a close over augurs for a test of the 9921 to 9937 region. Support should appear near the 9641 to 9625 region. Below that buyers should appear near 9541 to 9526.
JUNE JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 8484 to 849906 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8560 to 8589.
Support should appear near 8406 to 8391 and the 8314 to 8300 region. Below that a test of the 8223 to 8194 region is likely.
JUNE EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear 10960 then 11820 and the 10680 to 10580 region.
Resistance should appear near 11155 and 11300 to 11360. Stay tuned for Flashes.
JUNE SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10680 then 10820 and 10960 to 11020
Support should appear near 10470 and 10360 to 10320
JUNE BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 14840 then 14727 and the 14590 to 1453 region.
Resistance should appear near 15117 and the 15290 to 15350 region.
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 8029 to 8044 and 8119 to 8134. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8194 to 8223 and the 8300 to 8314 region. Traders can sell at 8297 and risk a close over
8317 for three days in a row. Support should appear near 7954 to 7939 and the 7864 to 7836 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 7689 to 7675 region.
JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR Resistance should appear near 7675 to 7689 and the 7763 to 7777 region.
Support should appear near 7601 to 7587 and 7513 to 7486. Below that a test of 7428 to 7414 is likely.
Stay tuned for Forex flashes and updates.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
JUNE GOLD
Resistance should appear near the 1232.0 to 1238.0 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1253.0 and the 2068.0 to 2074.0 region.
Support should appear near 1192.0 and 1169.0 to 1164.0 a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1136.00 to 1130.00.
MAY COPPER Resistance should appear near 27580 to 27750 then 28200 to 28290 and the 28740 to 28830 region.
Support should appear near 27240 to 27160 then 26720 to 26630 region. A close under augurs for at test of the 26200 to 26120 region.
MAY SILVER
Support should appear near 1655.0 to 1642.0 and the 1615 to 1609 region.
Resistance is at 1689.0 to 1696.0 and the 1731.0 to 1738.0 region.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
MAY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 4853 to 4845 and the 4717 to 4695 region. Below that a test of 4446 to 4425 region is likely.
Resistance should appear near 4973 to 4995 then 5056 to 5067 and the 5200 to 5211 region.
JUNE CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 4926 to 4915 and the 4717 to 4695 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 4514 to 4503.
Resistance should appear near 5067 then 5127 to 5135 and the 5259 to 5282 region.
JUNE BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 5553, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 5356 to 5344 and the 5211 to 5200 region. Below that a test of 5067 to 5056 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 5640 to 5653 and the 5716 to 5729 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 5855 to 5880 and the 5945 to 5957 region and cap a rally
MAY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 16960 to 16890 and the 16550 to 16420 region. Below that a test of 16150 to 16090 is likely.
Resistance should appear 16890 to 16960 and the 17310 to 17380 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 17740 to 17800 region and cap a rally.
MAY UNLEADED GAS
Resistance should appear 17740 to 17800 and 18080 to 18220. Beyond that sellers should appear near 18568 to 18650 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 17380 to 17310 region. Below that buyers should appear near 16960 to 16890 and the 16550 to 16420 region.
JUNE NATURAL GAS
Support should appear near 2.724 to 2.716. Below that a test of 2.672 to 2.663 and the 2.620 to 2.612 region is likely.
Resistance should appear near 2.820 to 2.829 and 2.874 to 2.883, beyond that sellers should appear near 2.928 to 2.937 and cap a rally.
Stay Tuned for Energy Flashes and Updates
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MAY SOYBEANS Support should appear near 973 ¾ 970 ¾ . An extended trade under is negative and augers for an eventual test of the 934 ¾ to 931 ¾ region.
Resistance should appear near 992 ¼ to 993 ¾ and the 1002 ¼ to 1003 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1010 ¼ to 1013 ¾.
JULY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 983 ¾ to 982 ¾ and the 973 ¾ 970 ¾ region. An extended trade under is negative and augers for an eventual test of the 954 ¼ to 952 ¾ region.
Resistance should appear near 993 ¾ and the 1002 ¼ to 1003 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1010 ¼ to 1013 ¾ and the 1032 to 1036 region.
MAY SOYOIL Support should appear near 3045 to 3036 and 2990 to 2972. Below that a test of 2937 to 2928 is likely. Resistance should appear near 3148 to 3157 and the 3194 to 3213 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3261 to 3270.
MAY SOYMEAL Resistance should appear near 331.9 to 332.8. Beyond that sellers should appear near 342.5 to 344.3 and 349.3 to 350.3. Support should appear near 321.3 to 319.4 and 315.7 to 314.8. Below that buyers should appear near the 304.5 to 303.6 region.
JULY CORN
Support should appear near 390 ¾ then 386 ¾ to 385 ¾ and the 374 ¼ to 373 ¼ region. Resistance should appear near 399 ¼. Beyond that sellers should appear near 411 to 412 and the 416 ¼ to 418 ¼ region cap a rally.
JULY WHEAT Support should appear near 528 ¼ to 525 ¾ and the 492 ¾ to 491 ½ region. Below that a test of 485 ¾ to 484 ½ is likely
Resistance should appear near 541 ¾ to 543 and the 555 ¼ to 555 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 564 to 565 ¾ .
Stay tuned for Grain flashes and updates.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
JUNE CATTLE Support should appear near 15290 and the 14960 to 14840, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 14590 to 14530 region.
Resistance should appear near 15690 to 15760 and the 16090 to 16150 region. Trade Accordingly.
AUGUST CATTLE
Support should appear near 14840, an extended trade under is negative and augurs for a test of the 14590 to 14530 region.
Resistance should appear near 15290 to 15350 and the 15690 to 15760 region.
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 6270 to 6257 then 6192 to 6162 and 6117 to 6102
Resistance should appear near 6337 to 6352 then 6417 to 6432 and the 6482 to 6512 region.
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 7512 to 7482, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 7342 to 7327 and the 7257 to 7242 region. Below that a test of 7170 to 7142 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 7587 to 7602 and 7672 to 7692. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7762 to 7777 and the 7832 to 7867 region.
Traders should go short if a close under 7547 occurs.
Stay Tuned for Livestock Flashes.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MAY COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 14840 to 14960 region.
Support should appear near 13830 to 13770, a close under augurs for a test of 13460 to 13340 and the 12740 to 12680 region.
Traders should consider going short if a close under 13755 occurs.
MAY COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2820 to 2829. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 2874 to 2883 region and cap a rally.
Support should appear near the 2672 to 2663 and the 2620 to 2612 region. Below that a test of
2568 to 2552 is likely.
MAY SUGAR
Resistance is near 1304 to 1310. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 1377 to 1383 region and cap a rally. Support should appear near 1238 to 1232, a close under augurs for a test of 1203 to 1192 and eventually the 1169 to 1164 region.
Trade Accordingly.
MAY COTTON
Support should appear near 6035 to 6023. Under that buyers should appear near 5957 to 5945
Resistance is at 6417 to 6430 and the 6577 to 6591 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6659 to 6673 and cap a rally.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Saturday April 04, 2015 7:55 PM South Florida Beach Time
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