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"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable -ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking -chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk" --Reminiscences of a Stock Operator--
Morning Comments
October 15 th 1997
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
Wed Oct 15 1997
4:30 AM NYC time
On the Frenzied Forex Front
Dec-Yen
Nearby support is8300 then 8251 below that 8223 , buy at 8213 for a good turn higher , risk a close under 8191 for three days in a row. Below that 8173, buy at 8173 for a bounce , risk 50 pts. Below that 8044 offers support where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good turn higher , risk 50 pts.
Resistance is 8321 then 8391 beyond that 8448 sell at 8448 , risk 20 pts or a close over 8451 initially..Beyond that 8491should trade and offer resistance, sell at 8491 for a turn lower , risk a close over 8499 for three days in a row..Beyond that 8560 to 8589 should trade then 8688 to 8683 offers good resistance.Traders should sell at 8712 , risk a close over 8763 for three days in a row.
Trade Accordingly..
Dec Swiss Franc Recommended Position Long at 6928
Early support should appear at 6868 then 6845, buy at 6845, risk a close under 6797 for three days in a row. If 6845 fails a trade to 6755 is likely , buy at 6755 , risk a clsoe under 6740.
Early Resistance is at 6895 then 6906 to 6918 , a close over 6920 augurs for a thrust to 6961, above that 6998 to 7007. Beyond that a trade to 7062 to 7074 is likely , sell at 7073 , risk a close over 7088 for three days in a row. Beyond that a test of 7113 is likely, sell at 7113 , risk a close over 7145 for three days in a row...Beyond that a test of 7223 to 7242 is likely and where good resistance remains sell at 7223 for a turn , stay tuned....
Trade Accordingly..
Dec. British:
Support is at 160.90, day traders can buy at 160.90 for a bounce ..., below that 159.60 then 159.20 offer support buy at 159.20.. risk a trade under 157.60 If not long buy at 158.20 for for a turn higher risk a close under 157.26 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 162.20 then 163.60 Traders should sell at 164.20 for a turn lower risk a close over 165.50 for three days in a row.
Trade accordingly..
Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position Short at 5791
Support is near 5717 and 5709 , buy at 5684 for a position , risk a close under 5680 for two days in a row. Support should also appear near 5640 , where traders can buy for a good bounce , risk a close under 5577 .Below that 5553 should trade. Buy at 5553 for a bounce , risk 30 pts.
Nearby Resistance is at 5731 above that 5759 then 5809 , Beyond that a trade to 5855 is likely. If The DMZ moves up to 5886 to 5902 sell at 5880 risk a close over 5914 for three days in a row.
Trade Accordingly
Dec Canadian Dollar
Support should appear near 7265 , buy at 7256 , risk a close under 7242 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 7315 then7328 and 7345, beyond that 7363 to 7370 offers resistance. Beyond that a trade is 7399 to 7414 is likely , sell at 7414 , risk a close over 7428 for three days in a row.
Precious Metals
December Gold Recommended Position long at 334.4
Nearby support is at 326.6day traders should buy Dec Gold at 336.7 and risk $ 2.00 more support is at 317 . Resistance is near 330 and 336.5.Traders should also consider buying Dec Gold at 341.90 stop basis the close where some resistance remains however if the " Yellow MetaL gets it gander up a rally to 350 is likely , a close over 353 augurs for a rally to 359 sell at 361 , risk a close over risk a close over 365 for three days in a row.
Buy dips..and hold.
Be Long ...Conservative Traders Should Buy April and Feb Gold 360 Calls to maintain exposure on the long Side.
Dec Copper
Nearby support is at 9520 then 9490 and 9440 with 9315 and 9285down below ,Buy at 9270 for a turn higher risk a close under 9150 for three days in a row. Below that a trade to 9115 is likely...where value should take hold...
Resistance is at 9715 then 9895 , sell at 9905, risk close over 9940, beyond that 100.80 offer resistance , sell at 100.80 for a turn lower , risk a close over 100.90 for two days in a row. Beyond that 103.25 is likley...
Trade Accordingly
January Platinum
Support is near 430.9, below that support should appear near 423 , below that 412 where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good bounce, risk a close under 406 for three days in a row...Resistance is near 440.9 and 442.5...beyond that 450
Trade Accordingly.
December Silver Recommended Position long at 525 & 511
Early support is 503.5 and 499 . ....Resistance is near 520.5 and 531.
The Exciting Energies
Dec Crude Oil Recomended Position long at 2238
Early support is at 2080 more support is near 2066 and 2042
Resistance should appear at 2100 and 2116 however a close over 2125 augurs for a rally to 2170 ...
Still Bullish Buy Dips ...
Dec Unleaded Recommended Position Long at 6240 & 6025..Risk a close under 5955 for two more days in a row on all positions..
Early support is near 5865/5855 , below that 5805. Resistance is near 5945 then 6025 and 6155 , beyond that, 6260 and 6320.
Trade Accordingly
Dec Heating Oil. Recommended Position Long at 6225 & 6015 use a stop close under 5840 today.
Support should appear near 5805 and 5790..Resistance is near 5880 above that 5945 to 5985
The ‘Grande’ Grains
November Beans Recommended Position Short at 688
Support is at 700 1/4 to 698 with 695 below that ..Early Resistance is near 709 and 711 with more at 723
Dec Soybean Meal Recommended Position Short at 218
Support should appear at 229.5below that 225.4. Resistance is near 233 then 237.
Dec Soybean Oil
Early support is at 2436 below that 2421 offers mild support .. Traders can Buy at 2392 , risk a close under 2352 where support should appear..
Resistance is near 2453 then 2511 to 2513 Sell at 2512 risk a close over 2569 for three days in a row.
Dec Corn Recommended Position Short at 269 1/4 and 280
Early support is at 282.. a close under 282 augurs for a pull back to 276.
Resistance is near 286 3/4 then 291 1/2
December Wheat
Nearby Support is at 365 More support should appear near 360 Resistance is near 371 and 372 1/2 .....sell at 375 and hold ...
Trade Accordingly
The Satisfying Softs
Dec Cotton Recommended Position Long at 7215 Exit on Open
Support at 7145 and 7095 Resistance is near 7195 and 7255
March Sugar
Resistance is near 1195 then 1215, sell at 1210 , risk a close over 1213 for three days in a row. Additional Resistance should appear near 1222 and 1232 sell at 1232 , risk a close over 1238 for two days in a row.
Support should appear near 1175, buy at 1171 risk a close under 1164 for three days in a row. More Support is near 1155 then 1135 , buy at 1146 risk a close under 1120 for two days in a row. .
December Coffee
Early support is near 163.65 then 163.15, day traders can buy for a bounce near 163.65..below that 161.50 and 160.90. offer support ...Buy Dec Coffee at 157. 70 risk a close under 156.90 for two days in a row. More Support should appear near 155.35 then 152.50 ...
Resistance is near at 168.65...above that resistance is near 169.65 firm rsistance should appear near 172.35. Traders should sell at 173.10, risk a close over 174.20 for two days n a row More resistance is near 180.80, sell at 180.80 , risk a close over 182.30 for two days in a row.
Have your' Steel Cup' Ready.
December Cocoa Recommended Position Long at 1644
Support is near 1635 and 1615. Below that 1586 offers supports . buy at 1577 , risk 30 pts.
Resistance is near 1646 and 1668 then 1718 and 1754/1764 sell at 1760 , risk a close over and 1782 for two days in a row.
The Lively Livestock
December Live Cattle Recommended Position long at 6865 ,6920 & 6677 Long Dec Short June at -165.
Support should appear at 6612/6607 and 6577... Resistance is near 6687 then 6742, a close over 6687 augurs for a trade to 6742..
October Feeder Cattle
Resistance is near 7767 vto 7777 beyond that 7832 Early Support is at 7677 Below that 7635
December Hogs Recommended Position Long at 6350
Early support is near 6257 and 6232..Resistance is 6307 and 6337 a close over 6337 indicates a trade to 6417.
Stay tuned ...
Feb Bellies Recommended Position Long at 6387
Early Support is at 6112, below that 6105 and 6062 to 6035 where it should hold.
Resistance is near 6132 .then .6165 to 6190 and 6252 to 6272 a close over 6132 augurs for a trade to 6272 then 6335.
Trade Accordingly.
U.S. 30 Year Bond Futures.
Dec Bonds
Support is at 115-17 then 115-06 below that 114-24 and 114-06 , buy and 114-04 and risk 10 pts Below that 114-00 and 113-13 offers supports.Resistance is at 116-00 with 116-06 above that...More resistance is near 116-20
Standard and Poor's SP 500 Index Futures
&
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Cash)
Dec SP500 Recommended position short at 968.40
On the Downside, Early support is 972.10 Below that 971.05 to 970.60. A close under 970.60 indicates a possible slip towards 969.20 and 967.35 below that... A close under under 967.35 augurs for a trade to 964.10/ 963.60 and the 962.50 region Which should hold However failure there indicates a slip towards 958.15/ 957.85 , below that support lies at 954.20 to 953.25 , buy at 954.20 for a bounce.. stay tuned... Below that 952.60 is likely to trade. Failure at 952.60 basis the close indicates indicates a slip to 946.90 to 944.50 where traders should buy for a good turn higher , risk a trade under 942.10.., Below that 934.70 then 929.50 and 927.40 offer support Buy at 929 risk 200 pts Failure to hold 927.40 is negative and should yeild a decline towards the 923 / 918.40 region with 915.60 Below that ... If a Sharp selloff does occur (for what ever reason) 910.05 is the downside target....
Resistance should appear near 973.70 , beuond that 977.90 and 978.45. More resistance is near 980.30 then 982.10 to 983.90 and 985.40. Beyond that 987.40 then 989.90. Good sellers should appear near 991.50 to 992.10 and 993.70
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Early Support is 8088 with 8049 and 8044 to 8029 below that . More support is at 8016 . Critical support is a t 8003 basis the close... However even a close under r 8029 augurs for a slip to 7991 and 7987.5 then 7954 .... Resistance is firm near 8119 / 8134 and 8142. Beyond that 8184 ...
Stay tuned for Flashes today...
Happy Trading
Bill
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