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"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable -ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking -chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk" --Reminiscences of a Stock Operator--

Morning Comments
October 16th 1997


THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

Thurs Oct 16 1997
4:30 AM NYC time

Dec-Yen

Nearby support is 8346 then 8327 below that 8300 and 8223 , buy at 8213 for a good turn higher , risk a close under 8191 for three days in a row. Below that 8173, buy at 8173 for a bounce , risk 50 pts. Below that 8044 offers support where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good turn higher , risk 50 pts.

Resistance is 8448 ...sell at 8448 , risk 20 pts or a close over 8451 initially..Beyond that 8491should trade and offer resistance, sell at 8491 for a turn lower , risk a close over 8499 for three days in a row..Beyond that 8560 to 8589 should trade then 8688 to 8683 offers good resistance.Traders should sell at 8712 , risk a close over 8763 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly..

Dec Swiss Franc Recommended Position Long at 6928
Early support should appear at 6888 then 6871, below that ..buy at 6845, risk a close under 6797 for three days in a row. If 6845 fails a trade to 6755 is likely , buy at 6755 , risk a clsoe under 6740.

Early Resistance is at 6921, a close over 6922 augurs for a thrust to 6971, above that 6988 to 7007. Beyond that a trade to 7062 to 7074 is likely , sell at 7073 , risk a close over 7088 for three days in a row. Beyond that a test of 7113 is likely, sell at 7113 , risk a close over 7145 for three days in a row...Beyond that a test of 7223 to 7242 is likely and where good resistance remains sell at 7223 for a turn , stay tuned....

Trade Accordingly..

Dec. British:
Support is at 160.90, day traders can buy at 160.90 for a bounce ..., below that 159.60 then 159.20 offer support buy at 159.20.. risk a trade under 157.60 If not long buy at 158.20 for for a turn higher risk a close under 157.26 for two days in a row. Resistance is near 162.20 then 163.60 Traders should sell at 164.20 for a turn lower risk a close over 165.50 for three days in a row.

Trade accordingly..

Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position Short at 5791
Support is near 5729 and 5712 , buy at 5684 for a position , risk a close under 5680 for two days in a row. Support should also appear near 5640 , where traders can buy for a good bounce , risk a close under 5577 .Below that 5553 should trade. Buy at 5553 for a bounce , risk 30 pts.

Nearby Resistance is at 5762 above that 5812 , Beyond that a trade to 5855 is likely. If The DMZ moves up to 5886 to 5902 sell at 5880 risk a close over 5914 for three days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

Dec Canadian Dollar Recommended Psition Long at 7256

Support should appear near 7219.,Resistance is near 7269 then 7328 and 7345, beyond that 7363 to 7370 offers resistance. Beyond that a trade is 7399 to 7414 is likely , sell at 7414 , risk a close over 7428 for three days in a row.

Precious Metals

December Gold Recommended Position long at 334.4
Nearby support is at 327.3 day traders should buy Dec Gold at 327.7 and risk $ 2.00 more support is at 317 . Resistance is near 330 and 335.5.Traders should also consider buying Dec Gold at 341.90 stop basis the close where some resistance remains however if the " Yellow MetaL gets it gander up a rally to 350 is likely , a close over 353 augurs for a rally to 359 sell at 361 , risk a close over risk a close over 365 for three days in a row.

Buy dips..and hold.

Be Long ...Conservative Traders Should Buy April and Feb Gold 360 Calls to maintain exposure on the long Side.

Dec Copper
Nearby support is at 9605 to 9525 then 9475 and 9440 with 9315 and 9285down below ,Buy at 9270 for a turn higher risk a close under 9150 for three days in a row. Below that a trade to 9115 is likely...where value should take hold...

Resistance is at 9725 then 9875 , sell at 9905, risk close over 9940, beyond that 100.80 offer resistance , sell at 100.80 for a turn lower , risk a close over 100.90 for two days in a row. Beyond that 103.25 is likley...

Trade Accordingly

January Platinum
Support is near 434.5, below that support should appear near 431 then 423 , below that 412 where traders should have buy orders waiting for a good bounce, risk a close under 406 for three days in a row...Resistance is near 441.9 and 443.5...beyond that 450

Trade Accordingly.

December Silver Recommended Position long at 511
Early support is 507.5 and 502 . ....Resistance is near 511.5 and 521.

The Exciting Energies

Dec Crude Oil Recomended Position long at 2238
Early support is at 2063 more support is near 2052 and 2027

Resistance should appear at 2102 and 2113 however a close over 2125 augurs for a rally to 2170 ...
Still Bullish Buy Dips ...

Dec Unleaded Recommended Position Long at 6240 & 6025..Risk a close under 5870 today on all positions..

Early support is near 5805/5775 Resistance is near 5870 then 5945 and 5970

Trade Accordingly

Dec Heating Oil.
Support should appear near 5745 and 5605..Resistance is near 5945 and 6015

The ‘Grande’ Grains

November Beans Recommended Position Short at 688
Support is at 698 with 695 Early Resistance is near 709 1/2 and 712 with more at 723 /725

Dec Soybean Meal Recommended Position Short at 218
Support should appear at 226.4. Resistance is near 232 then 235.

Dec Soybean Oil
Early support is at 2446 below that 2439 offers mild support below that Traders can Buy at 2392 , risk a close under 2352 where support should appear..
Resistance is near 2495 then 2511 to 2513 Sell at 2512 risk a close over 2569 for three days in a row.

Dec Corn Recommended Position Short at 269 1/4 and 280
Early support is at 287..then 281 Resistance is near 290 1/2 and 292

December Wheat
Nearby Support is at 365 More support should appear near 360 Resistance is near 372 and 375 1/2 .....sell at 375 and hold ...

Trade Accordingly

The Satisfying Softs

Dec Cotton
Support at 7105 and 7055 Resistance is near 7125 and 7205

March Sugar
Resistance is near 1198 then 1208, sell at 1210 , risk a close over 1213 for three days in a row. Additional Resistance should appear near 1222 and 1232 sell at 1232 , risk a close over 1238 for two days in a row.

Support should appear near 1179, buy at 1171 risk a close under 1164 for three days in a row. More Support is near 1155 then 1135 , buy at 1146 risk a close under 1120 for two days in a row. .

December Coffee
Early support is near 163.80 then 163.15, day traders can buy for a bounce near 163.80..below that 161.50 and 160.90. offer support ...Buy Dec Coffee at 157. 70 risk a close under 156.90 for two days in a row. More Support should appear near 155.35 then 152.50 ...

Resistance is near at 168.75...above that resistance is near 171.5 with firm rsistance near 172.35. Traders should sell at 173.10, risk a close over 174.20 for two days n a row More resistance is near 180.80, sell at 180.80 , risk a close over 182.30 for two days in a row.

Have your' Steel Cup' Ready.

December Cocoa

Support is near 1639 and 1621. Below that 1586 offers supports . buy at 1577 , risk 30 pts.

Resistance is near 1671 then 1707 and 1721 , above that 1754/1764 sell at 1760 , risk a close over and 1782 for two days in a row.

The Lively Livestock

December Live Cattle Recommended Position long at 6865 ,6920 & 6677 Long Dec Short June at -165.
Support should appear at 6617 and 6542... Resistance is near 6690 then 6752, a close over 6690 augurs for a trade to 6742..

Feeder Cattle will be left out until next week...

December Hogs Recommended Position Long at 6350
Early support is near 6137 and 6097..Resistance is 6190 then 6237 and 6297 a close over 6197 indicates a trade to 6317.

Stay tuned ...

Feb Bellies
Early Support is at 5857, below that 5792 Resistance is near 5967 then 6005 to 6027 and 6152

U.S. 30 Year Bond Futures.

Dec Bonds
Support is at 115-07 then 114-24 and 114-07 , buy and 114-04 and risk 10 pts Below that 114-00 and 113-13 offers supports.Resistance is at 115-29 with 116-07 above that...More resistance is near 116-20

Standard and Poor's SP 500 Index Futures
&
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Cash)

Dec SP500 Recommended position short at 968.40
On the Downside, Early support is 972.10 Below that 971.05 to 970.60. A close under 970.60 indicates a possible slip towards 969.10 and 967.35 A close under under 967.35 augurs for a trade to 964.10/ 963.60 and the 962.50 region Which should hold However failure there indicates a slip towards 958.15/ 957.85 , below that support lies at 954.20 to 953.25 , buy at 954.20 for a bounce.. stay tuned... Below that 952.60 is likely to trade. Failure at 952.60 basis the close indicates indicates a slip to 946.90 to 944.50 where traders should buy for a good turn higher , risk a trade under 942.10.., Below that 934.70 then 929.50 and 927.40 offer support Buy at 929 risk 200 pts Failure to hold 927.40 is negative and should yeild a decline towards the 923 / 918.40 region with 915.60 Below that ... If a Sharp selloff does occur (for what ever reason) 910.05 is the downside target....

Resistance should appear near 973.70 , beyond that 977.90 and 978.60. More resistance is near 980.30 then 982.10 to 983.90 and 985.40. Beyond that 987.40 then 989.90. Good sellers should appear near 991.50 to 992.10 and 993.70

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Early Support is 8044 with 8029 below that . More support is at 8016 . Critical support is a t 8003 basis the close... However even a close under 8029 augurs for a slip to 7991 and 7987.5 then 7954 .... Resistance is firm near 8055 and 8088 then 8119 / 8134 and 8142. Beyond that 8184 ...

.

Happy Trading

Bill


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