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Morning Comments
June 23, 1998
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
Make a Plan and Trade the Plan
Monday, June 22, 1998
06:00 PM e.s.t.
On the Frenzied Forex Front
Sept. J-Yen
Support is 7312 and 7284 then 7234. Nearby Resistance is at 7368 and 7414 beyond that resistance is 7486 to 7513.
Sept. Swiss Recommended Position Long at 6695 and 6755
Early support is at 6718 then 6709 below that support is 6692 to 6687. A slip under 6687 augurs for a test of 6673. Resistance is strong near 6751 to 6759 beyond that resistance is 6809 and offers good resistance. However a close over 6761 indicates a test of 6836. Beyond that resistance is near 6890. Traders can exit longs/ go short at 6890. Initially Risk a close over 6919 for two days in a row.
Trade Accordingly
Sept. British Pound: Recommended position short at 1.6550
Support is at 1.6648 and 1.6602 below that 1.6550 offers support. A failure there augurs for a trade to 16420. Resistance is at 1.6742 then 1.6842.
A close under 1.6648 is negative.
Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position long 5593
Support is at 5581 and 5577 below that buyers will show up at 5545 to 5538, under that at 5490 to 5480 which should contain a break. If not a slip to 5461 is likely. Resistance is at 5611. Beyond that look for a test of 5638 to 5641 with a chance of testing 5661
beyond that Traders should exit and go short at 5688 for a turn lower. Risk a close over 5729 for two days in a row.
Sept. Canadian Dollar Recommended Position long at 6836 and 6856
Support is at 6798 and 6765. Resistance is at 6809 and 6822 to 6829 a trade over 6830 indicates a test of 6836 to 6845. A close over 6845 augurs for a thrust towards 6906 to 6914 where traders should sell at 6906, risk a close over 6922 for three days in a row.
Trade Accordingly.
Precious Metals
August Gold
Recommended Position Long at 290Nearby Support is at 295.3 and 292.5. Resistance is at 299.7 and 303.60 to 304.70 however if august gold closes over 300 a test of 306.80 to 309.70 is Likely to occur.
July Copper:
Recommended Position Long at 7780Support is at 7525 and 7430 below that 7320 should hold. Resistance is at 7715 to 7720. However a penetration of the 7770 region would most likely force a trade to 7915 if it holds.
Trade Accordingly,
July Platinum
Recommended Position Long at 349.Early Support is at 357.0 Below that 354 should hold. Resistance is at 361.7 and 367. Beyond that 376.5 offers good resistance. Traders should Go Short at 377, risk a Close over 383 for two days in a row.
Long Term Friendly
July Silver
On the Downside: Support is at 528.5 and 514 to 512.5, day traders should buy at 514 and risk 5 cents below that Traders can buy at 493 and hold. On the Upside early resistance is at 536.5 and 550.5
A close over 537 augurs for a test of 553.
Trade Accordingly.
The Exciting Energies
August Crude Recommended Position Long at 1407
August Crude has support at 1362 and 1340. Day traders can buy at 1340, put your own risk on it. Resistance is at 1390 and 1407 to 1419.
August Unleaded Gas
Support is at 4705 and 4658. Resistance is at 4825 and 4840 to 4880. A close over 4927 is bullish for a test of the 5085 /5125 region.
*Traders should go long on a close over 4927
August Heating Oil Recommended Position Long at 3957
Resistance at 3990 Above that resistance should appear at 4010 beyond that a test of 4170 is likely if it holds. On the Downside Support is at 3810. Below that Traders should Buy at 3745 and hold. Below that 3645 should contain the break.
The Grande Grains
July Soybeans
Support is at 647 and 640.5 Day traders should buy at 643 and risk 7 cents.
Resistance is at 654 a trade over augurs for a test of 661 and eventually 690.
August Beans Recommended Position Long at 601 (2) Hold
Spread
Long August Short Nov. at 24 cents over HoldAugust Soybean Meal
Support is 168.9 and 166.2 Day traders can buy at 166.4 risk a trade under 164.
Resistance is at 174 and 177.4 to 178.0
Trade Accordingly.
August Soybean Oil Recommended Position long at 2568
Support is at 2552 and 2519 below that 2469. Traders should Buy at 2469 and Hold. Resistance is at 2566 then 2581. Above that 2612 offers resistance
Dec. Corn
Support should appear at 259.5. Below that 255 3/4 offers good support.
Resistance is at 260 3/4 and 265.
Sep Wheat
Resistance is at 301 1/2 and 305 to 307. Support should appear at 295 1/2 to 293
and 289 1/2.
Trade Accordingly
The Satisfying Softs
Dec. Cotton
Recommended Position long at 7502Support is at 7558 and 7542 to 7537. Below that 7410 should hold.
Resistance is at 7620 to 7645 and 7725 above that resistance is at 7770.
Trade Accordingly
Oct. Sugar
Support is 802, Below that 791 to 786/783 should hold, Day traders should buy at 791 and risk 20 pts. A slip under 783 augurs for a test of the 767 to the 763. Resistance at 826. Beyond that a trade to 847 is likely with a possible test of 863 to 877, traders should sell at 877 risk a close over 882 for three days in a row.
Sept. Coffee:
Recommended Position Long at (2)121.95 and 120.30On the DownSide, Early support is at 113.70 /113.60 to 113.00, below that 111.55
offers good support as does 109.85 On the Upside, Resistance is at 114.00 then 115.45 and 116.45 to 116.75
A close over 115.45 is friendly.
Sept. Cocoa
The close under 1609 indicates a slip towards support at 1591 and 1577 where traders can Buy at 1577 for a turn higher, risk a close under 1569 for two days in a row.
Below that 1535 to 1529 should hold. Resistance is at 1597 and 1608, above that 1632 and 1647 offer resistance. Beyond that Traders should go short at 1696 for a turn lower, risk a close over 1738 for two days in a row.
A close over 1608 is friendly.
The Lively Livestock
August Cattle
Recommended Position long at 6665Initial Support is at 647 and 6462 Below that 6407 should hold. Resistance is at 6527
and 6552.
Long term Friendly
July Hogs
Nearby Support is 6157 and 6112 below that 6015 offers good support. Traders can Buy at 6017 for a turn higher. Initially risk a close under 5852 for two days in a row.
Resistance 6212 and 6232 Beyond that resistance is at 6282 and 6312 above that Traders can go short at 6367 for a quick turn lower, risk a close over 6432 for three day in a row.
Recommended Spread Long Oct. Short July Hogs at 870 Hold.
July Bellies Recommended Position Long at 6117 (2)
On the DownSide
Support is at 5637 and 5592 to 5577. Traders can buy at 5577 for a good bounce, risk a close under 5490 for two days in a row. Below that 5552 and 5487 should hold.On the Upside Resistance is at 5787 and 5855. An extended trade or close over 5787 augurs for a test of 5952.
Recommended Spread Long 5 July Short 5 August at 225 July over Aug. Hold.
--From the Frying Pan into the Fire--
The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
Sept. Bonds
On The Downside, Nearby Support is 123-00 and 122-20 a close under 122-20 augurs for a test of 121-30 to 121-19 On the Upside: Resistance is at 123-12 and 123-20.
Day traders should sell at 123-19 for a turn lower, risk 8 pts.
Sept. SP500 Recommended Position Short at 1123.80
On the DownSide,
Support is at 1115.50 to 1114.30. Below that support lies at 1110.00 and 1109.30 to 1106.80, a failure there augurs for a slip to the 1101 to 1098.50 /1096 regions.On the Upside, Resistance is 1123.40 then 1125.30. Beyond that 1130 and 1133 to 1136 offer good resistance. Traders should Sell at 1136 and hold for lower prices.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Initial support is at 8683 and 8663. Below that buyers should appear at 8626.5 and 8589 to 8560. A close under 8589 is negative for a slip to 8539 and it should hold, if not a slip towards 8406 /8391 is likely. Resistance should first appear at 8762 and 8777 beyond that 8799 and 8830 offer resistance. Beyond 8856 to 8871 should cap a rally today. Above that good resistance is now at 8904 to 8910.2 and 8934 to 8964.
Happy Trading
A Ship in Harbor is safe, but that's not what Ships are built for.
Bill
Monday June 22, 1998
6:50 PM
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