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"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the Unexpectable - ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking - chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk--"Reminiscences of a Stock operator.

Morning Comments
June 26, 1998 

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

Thur June 25, 1998
07:50 PM e.s.t. 

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Sept. J-Yen Recommended Position Long at 7092

Support is 7088 to 7074 and 7069 to 7054. Below that support is 7003 to 6986.

Resistance is at 7143 and 7154 to 7170.

Sept. Swiss Recommended Position Long at 6695 and 6755

Support is at 6630 to 6619. Under that 6591 to 6577 should hold. Resistance is at 6662 and 6716. A close over 6673 augurs for a rally to resistance at 6744 to 6751. Beyond that Resistance is 6809 and offers good resistance..

Trade Accordingly

Sept. British Pound:

Support is at 1.6602 and 1.6550 and 1.6536. A failure there augurs for a trade to 16420. Resistance is at 1.6686 and 1.6742.

Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position long 5593

Support is at 5577 to 5571 below that buyers will show up at 5553 , under that at support is 5521 to 5516 and 5505 to 5490 which should contain a break. If not a slip to 5461 is likely. Resistance is at 5594 and 5616 to 5621.

Sept. Canadian Dollar Recommended Position long at 6836 and 6856

Support is at 6809 and 6801. Resistance is at 6836. The close over 6819 augurs for a test of resistance at 6858.

Trade Accordingly.

Precious Metals

August Gold Recommended Position Long at 290

Nearby Support is at 293.6 below that 291.8 which should hold. Resistance is at 296.8 and 301.8 If august gold closes over 302.5 a test of resistance at 303.60 and 311.8 is Likely to occur.

Sept. Copper: Recommended Position Long at 7480

Support is at 7425 below that 7210 should hold. Resistance is at 7565 and 7610.

Trade Accordingly,

Oct. Platinum Recommended Position Long at 358

Early Support is at 352. and 348.5 Resistance is at 358.5 Beyond that 3655 offers good resistance.

Long Term Friendly

Sept. Silver

On the Downside: Support is at 533.5 under that support should be evident at 522.5 Day traders should buy at 522 and risk 10 cents below that Traders can buy at 505 and hold. On the Upside early resistance is at 541.5 and 561

Trade Accordingly.

The Exciting Energies

August Crude

August Crude has support at 1401 and 1395 Below that 1383 should hold Day traders can buy at 1383, put your own risk on it. Below that 1370 and 1346 offer support.

Resistance is at 1420 and 1445 to 1453. Beyond that a resistance is at 1484 . a close over 1496 augurs for a thrust towards the 1569 /1576 region . Beyond that traders should sell at 1689 and hold for a turn lower.

August Unleaded Gas

Support is at 4658 and 4560. Below that support should appear at 4522.

Resistance is at 4722 and 4780 to 4840.

August Heating Oil

Resistance at 4050 and 4110 On the Downside Support is at 3850 and 3820. Below that support is near 3745. Traders should Buy at 3745 and hold. Below that 3730 and 3660 should contain the break.

 

 

 

The Grande Grains

July Soybeans

Support is at 655 and 650, below that 648 should contain a break.

Resistance is at 662 1/2 and 664 A close over 664 augurs for a test of 676.

August Beans Recommended Position Long at 601 (2) Hold

* New Trade : Traders should Add 1 at 646 3/4.

Spread Long August Short Nov. at 24 cents over Hold

August Soybean Meal

Support is 174.6 and 173.20 Day traders can buy at 174.6 risk a trade under 169.

Resistance is at 189 and 182.5

Trade Accordingly.

August Soybean Oil

Support is at 2568 and 2544 below that support is 2529. Resistance is at 2591 and 2612 to 2629.

Dec. Corn

Support should appear at 267 to 266 1/4 and 261 1/2. Below that 258 offers good support. Resistance is at 271 1/2 to 276.

Sep Wheat

Resistance is at 302 1/2 Beyond that 308 and 314 1/2 offer resistance.

Support should appear at 298 and 296 3/4 below that support is at 290. 3/4

Trade Accordingly

Buy Dips in the Grains...

 

The Satisfying Softs

Dec. Cotton

Support is at 7680 and 7620. Below that 7570 should hold.

Resistance is at 7720 above that resistance is at 7780.

Trade Accordingly

Oct. Sugar

Support is 837 and 823 under that 814 should hold, Resistance at 847. Beyond that a trade to 863 to 877 is likely.

Traders should sell at 877 risk a close over 882 for three days in a row.

Sept. Coffee: Recommended Position Long at (2)121.95 and 120.30

On the DownSide, Early support is at 114.40 and 113.60 to 113.00/ 112.85 below that support is 111.90 and 110.10

On the Upside, Resistance is at 116.40 and 116.90 Beyond that resistance is at 117.85. a close over 117.85 augurs for a test of 119.20 and 120.30 beyond that a trade to 125.75 is likely. If it holds.

Sept. Cocoa Recommended position long at 1577 risk a close under 1569 for two days in a row.

Support is at 1576 and 1569. Below that 1557 should hold. Resistance is at 1586 an extended trade over 1590 indicates a test of 1607 to 1609. Above that 1615 and 1632 offer resistance. A close over 1586 is friendly.

 

The Lively Livestock

August Cattle Recommended Position long at 6665

Support is 6487 and 6442 below that 6412 offers support.

Resistance is at 6522 and 6562 to 6590 .

Long term Friendly

July Hogs Recommended Position long at 6035

Initially risk a close under 5852 for two days in row.

Nearby Support is 6032 and 5992. Below that support is at 5932 and 5882.

Resistance 6077 and 6102 beyond that resistance is at 6117

October Hogs

Recommended Long Oct. at 6370 from the spread

My desire is to keep the Oct. for the Pull if able.

July Bellies Recommended Position Long at 6117 (2)

On the DownSide Support is at 5947 then 5832 and 5797. Day Traders can buy at 5797 for a good bounce, Below that support is 5717 and 5657.

On the Upside Resistance is at 5957 and 6097 beyond that 6127 offers resistance.

An extended trade or close over 5957 augurs for a test of 6097.

Recommended Spread Long 5 July Short 5 August at 225 July over Aug. Hold.

--From the Frying Pan into the Fire--

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Sept. Bonds

On The Downside, Nearby Support is 122-28 then 122-25 and 122-23 a close under 122-23 augurs for a test of 121-30 to 121-22 On the Upside: Resistance is at 123-10 and 123-20 to 123-23. . Above that resistance is at 124-13 and 124-23 to 124-25.

Sept. SP500 Recommended Position Short at 1123.80 ,1125.80 and 1136

On the DownSide, Support is at 1141.70 and 1140.20 under that support is at 1138.70 to 1137.90 and 1136. A trade under 1136/1135.60 augurs for a test of 1133 and 1130. Below that support lies at 1115.

On the Upside, Resistance is at 1146.90, day traders can sell at 1146.90 for a turn lower, put your own risk on it. Beyond that resistance is 1149 to 1150 and 1151.40 with 1158.80 above that. If the sharp advance continues 1164 to 1169 should Cap a Rally. Sell Short at 1164 and Hold.

* a close under 1141.60 is negative, traders should add/ go short if a close under 1141.60 occurs.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Initial support is at 8934 and 8871 to 8856, under that support is at 8777 and 8762. Below that buyers should appear at 8683 to 8668 Resistance should first appear at 8964. Above that sellers should raise their heads at 8993 and 9004. Beyond that 9044 to 9060 offers good resistance as does 9100 and 9140 to 9156 which should contain a rising mkt. If not a touch of 9236 to 9247 is likely.

A Ship in Harbor is safe, but that's not what Ships are built for.

Happy Trading

Bill

Thursday June 25, 1998

8:45 PM

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