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Morning Comments
7/31/1998

Thur July 30 1998
8:13 PM
"Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable - ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking - chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk--"
Reminiscences of a Stock operator.
The happening of the unexpected , that's what futures traders should imagine. The expected will generate a return each year on large sums of money. The funds do that..but I am not doing this to show a 30 percent return. My imagination strives to double traders money...So when I initiate a trade, my expectation is that very few newsletters and traders agree with me..If my advice just agreed with everybody else's what good am I doing..So many times I look like shit and come out smelling like a rose..how else can one achieve a 500 percent return in 1.5 years...? My goal is to win the War not the battle...
On the Frenzied Forex Front
Sept. J-Yen Recommended Position Long at (3) at 7245 and 3 at 7003

Nearby Support is 6996 and 6990 then 6948 and 6919

Resistance is at 7017 and 7039 to 7054 , a close over or extended trade over 7017 augurs for a rally to 7074 and 7088 ,

Sept. Swiss Recommended Position long at 6990 and 6757

Resistance is 6741 to 6755. A close over 6755 augurs for a test of 6786 to 6790.A close or extended trade over 6790 is friendly for a pop to 6809. Beyond that resistance is at 6836/ 6840. Traders can go short for a quick turn lower at 6840. Risk a close over 6840 for two days in a row. Beyond that resistance is at 6906 to 6919.

Support is at 6707 and 6693 then 6673 .

Buy Dips
Sept. British Pound:

Support is at 1.6220.. Below that a slip to 1.6150/ 1.6090 is likely. Traders should buy at 1.6150 and hold for higher prices.

Resistance is at 1.6420 then 1.6550 and 1.6612 then 1.6672, beyond that resistance should appear at 1.6720.

Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position long at 5490

Nearby Resistance is at 5641 and 5655 then 5673 to 5689.. A close over 5690 indicates likely test of 5716 to 5729. Beyond that good resistance is at 5792 to 5805 and 5820 to 5855 then 5880. Traders can sell short at 5855 and hold for lower prices.

Support is at 5610 Below that support is at 5589 and 5577. Traders can buy at 5589, risk close under 5553 for three days in a row.

Sept. Canadian Dollar

Support is at 6636 then 6591 and 6577.

Resistance is at 6690 and 6707.

Precious Metals
August Gold Recommended Position Long at 298.10 and 293.10

Support is at 288. and 286. Day traders can buy at 285.30, risk $ 4.00. Beneath that support is at 275.3 and 273.80

Resistance is at 289.30 and 294 A close over 295.30 augurs for a test of 301 to 303.60 where good sellers should appear. Traders should go long if a close over 295.30 occurs.

Trade Accordingly.

Sept. Copper:

Support is at 7825. The close under 7855 augurs for a test of 7770 and 7710 where traders should have buy orders waiting to go long for a good two to three day bounce. Risk a close under 7480 for three days in a row.

Resistance is at 7935 and 8020 then 8135, a close over 8135 augurs for a test of 8190 to 8225. Beyond that good resistance is at 8290.

Trade Accordingly,

Oct. Platinum

Nearby Support is at 375 and 373.2. Traders can go long at 372.5, risk a close

under 365 for three days in a row. Below that support is at 359 and 355. 0

Resistance is at 385 then 392.5 and 409. Traders should Go Short at 409 for a quick turn lower. Risk a Close over 412 for two days in a row.

Bullish long term.

Sept. Silver Recommended Position long at 565, 570, 553.5

On the Downside: Again buyers should appear at 548.5 below that support is at 545

On the Upside. Resistance is at 562 A close over 564 augurs for a test 573.

The Exciting Energies

September Crude Recommended Position Long at 1418

Support is at 1420 and 1415 then 1390 below that traders should go long at 1377 for a good bounce. Risk a close under 1334 for two days in row.

Resistance is at 1445 Beyond that resistance is at 1453 to 1465. However a close over 1459 indicates a test of the 1484 to 1496 region. Beyond that another thrust towards the 1529 to 1535 region is possible.

September Unleaded Gas recommended position long at 4249

Nearby Support is at 4173 then 4125.

Resistance is at 4231 and 4273. A close over 4273 augurs for a test of the 4380 to 4446 region. Beyond that resistance is 4570 and 4630.

September Heating Oil Recommended Position long at 3748

Resistance is at 3695 and 3745 then 3822 to 3880. Beyond that 3910 offers resistance. A close over 3695 is friendly for a rally to the 3825. Above that resistance is at 4070

Support is at 3623 and 3590. Below that 3535 to 3492 should contain a break.

The Grande Grains
November Soybeans Recommended Position Long at 588, 2 @ 566 1/4

Support is at 568 1/2 then 562 and 552 and 546

Resistance is at 575 3/4 A close over 573 is friendly for a rally to 582 where resistance remains and 594

traders should prepare for a 20 to 30 cent rally in the next two weeks...
trade accordingly.
Dec. Soybean Meal

Support is 146.1 Below that Support is near 144 and 141.5.

Traders should go long at 143 for a good turn higher, risk a close under 137.70 for three days in a row.

Resistance is at 152 and 153.9 then 157.4 beyond that good resistance is at 165.

Traders should go long if a close over 153.5 occurs.

Trade Accordingly.

Dec. Soybean Oil recommended position long at 2475

Support is at 2469 then 2461 and 2427 , under that Traders should buy at 2412 Risk a close under 2354 for three days in a row.

Resistance is at 2511 to 2519 and the 2527 region.

Dec. Corn

Support is at 225 3/4 then 222 1/2. Below that support is near 219 1/4

Resistance is at 228 3/4 and 230 1/2, a close over 230 1/2 augurs for a short covering rally to 235 and 239.

Dec. Wheat

Resistance is at 270 a close over 273 augurs for a rally to 279 and 283.

On the Downside Support is at 267 1/2 and 263

The Satisfying Softs

Dec. Cotton Recommended Position Long at 7513,7235,7092

commodities are a funny thing , most funds and traders who bought near 7700 are now that shorts down here , go figure... it took cotton a long time to rally past the 70's to 1.00

then a good accumulation under 70 cent to 65 cents it most likely won't back down for to long...Hold.

Support is at 7148 and 7109 then 7082 offers good support.

Resistance is 7232 and 7286 to 7335

Traders should go long /add if a close over 7256 occurs

Trade Accordingly

Oct. Sugar

Support is at 878 to 875 then 852 and 828. Traders can buy at 823, risk a close under 814 for three days in a row..

Resistance near 907 then 911 to 918.

Sept. Coffee: recommended position short at 116.90,

On the downside, Early support is at 122.15 and 121,60 then 120.30, a close under 120.30 is negative for a test of 116.90

On the Upside, Resistance is at 124.15 and 125.90 to 126.60

long term bullish near term negative.

Sept. Cocoa Recommended Position Long at 1586 and 1570

Support. Is at 1535 to 1529 and 1524/1519. Traders can buy at 1535, risk a trade under 1490.

Resistance is at 1569 to 1574 and the 1609 to 1615 region. A close over 1576 is friendly for a test of 1609. A trade over 1626 is friendly for a rally towards 1642 to 1655. A close today over 1547 is constructive for a move towards 1592

The Lively Livestock

October Cattle Recommended Position long at 3 @ 6210.

Support is at 6035. Below that 6012 should bring out a few buyers.

Resistance is at 6107 and 6137. A close over 6137 augurs for a test of 6287.

August Hogs Recommended Position long 2 at 4977

Support is at 4902 and 4855 to 4845 below that support is at 4777 to 4752.

Resistance is at 4952 and 5002. Where good sellers remain. However a close over 5002, should bring out some considerable short covering from the Funds, if this happens expect a rally to 5107. Stay tuned for updates.

October Hogs Recommended Position Long at 4612 and 2 @ 4382.

Resistance is at 4380 and 4430.

Support is at 4307. Below that Hearty traders can buy at 4227 for a good bounce Below that 4190 should hold basis the close.

Traders should start hoarding the long Oct. hogs for a 3 to 5 cent rally.

A close over 4357 augurs for a test of 4450.

--From the Frying Pan into the Fire--

August Bellies Recommended Position long at 5917 HOLD

Support is at 5477 and 5327, day traders should buy at 5337 and hold for higher prices, risk 125 pts.

Resistance is at 5517 then 5627 and 5772.

The cash boys are covering short hedges down here...,what does that tell you.?

Don't be short.

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
Sept. Bonds

On The Downside, Nearby Support is 122-17 and 122-04 A close under 122-04 is negative and augurs for an eventual slip to 121-13. Traders can buy at 121-13, risk a close under 120-08 for three days in a row.

On the Upside: Resistance is at 123-03 and 123-17 . A close over 123-17 is friendly for a push towards 124-04/ 124-17, sell at 124-13 for a turn lower, risk a close over 124-21 for two days in a row.

Sept. SP500 recommended position short 2 at 1135.50

On the DownSide, support is at 1145.50 and 1140.10 then 1136 and 1132.80 , under that 1130 to 1128.90. a close under 1128.90 augurs for a test of support at 1115.50 and 1101, Eventually another test of 1124 is expected.

On the Upside, Resistance is at 1150 Beyond that good sellers should show up at 1160.40 Sell at 1160.50 and hold for lower prices. Above that resistance is at 1164 to 1169 and 1174.70. Beyond that 1179.30 to 1180.50 should trade and cap a rally for now.

stay tuned for flashes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support is 8964 then 8934 and 8871 to 8856, under that support is at 8805.5. A Slip under 8798 is negative and augurs for a pullback towards the 8777 to 8762 region. A close under 8759 augurs for a test of 8719 and an eventual test of 8683 to 8668.

Below that 8598 should hold if not an eventual break down towards 8180 is likely.

Resistance should first appear at 9044/ 9060 then 9115 and 9140 to 9156

A ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that's not what ships are built for.
Happy Trading
Bill
Thurs. July 30 1998
09:37 PM
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