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"A man can have great mathematical ability and unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also possesses the experience and memory. "
-Reminiscences of a Stock operator-

Morning Comments
8/3/1998
 

Sunday August 2 1998
3:41 PM

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Sept. J-Yen Recommended Position Long at (3) at 7245 and 3 at 7003

Nearby Support is 6948 and 6919 Resistance is at 6986\,a close over is friendly for a pop to 7023 and 7039 to 7054, However a close over or extended trade over 7023 augurs for a rally to 7074 and 7088/ 7112

Sept. Swiss Recommended Position long at 6990 and 6757

Resistance is 6747 to 6755. A close over 6755 augurs for a test of 6786 and 6809 Beyond that resistance is at 6836/ 6840. Traders can go short for a quick turn lower at 6840. Risk a close over 6840 for two days in a row. Beyond that resistance is at 6906 to 6919.

Support is at 6725 and 6707 then 6673. Day traders should buy a dip to 6707.

Buy Dips

Sept. British Pound:

Support is at 1.6252. Below that a slip to 1.6150/ 1.6090 is likely. Traders should buy at 1.6150 and hold for higher prices.

Resistance is at 1.6330 and 1.6420 then 1.6550 and 1.6612 then 1.6672, beyond that resistance should appear at 1.6720.

Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position long at 5490

Nearby Resistance is at 5641 and 5656 then 5673 to 5689.. A close over 5655

indicates a likely test of 5716 to 5729. Beyond that good resistance is at 5792 to 5805 and 5820 to 5855 then 5880. Traders can sell short at 5855 and hold for lower prices.

Support is at 5637 and 5610 to 5606. Below that support is at 5589 and 5577. Traders can buy at 5589, risk close under 5553 for three days in a row.

Buy Dips

Sept. Canadian Dollar

Support is at 6597 then 6591 and 6577.

Resistance is at 6621 then 6647 and 6673.

Precious Metals

August Gold Recommended Position Long at 298.10 and 293.10
Traders Should Roll the August Gold to Dec.and Cancel any August orders
Look for Dec analysis by Tuesday.  

Sept. Copper: Recommended Position Long at 7710

Nearby Support is at 76757 and 7635 to 7605, Day traders should buy at 7635 for a bounce, risk 100 pts. Below that support is at 7495 and 7435.

Resistance is at 7760 then 7835. A close over 7835 augurs for a test of 8005 to 8035 Beyond that good resistance is at 8120.

Trade Accordingly,

Oct. Platinum

Nearby Support is at 376 and 374.6. Traders can go long at 372.5, risk a close under support at 365 for three days in a row.

Resistance is at 379 then 382.5 and 385 to 388

Bullish long term.

Sept. Silver Recommended Position long at 565, 570, 553.5

On the Downside: support is at 540.0 and 529 to 522
On the Upside. Resistance is at 551.5 and 565

The Exciting Energies

September Crude Recommended Position Long at 1418

Support is at 1420 and 1415 then 1390 below that traders should go long at 1377 for a good bounce. Risk a close under 1334 for two days in row.

Resistance is at 1447 t0 1429, more resistance is at 1453 to 1465. However a close over 1449 indicates a test of the 1484 to 1496 region. Beyond that another thrust towards the 1529 to 1535 region is possible.

September Unleaded Gas recommended position long at 4249

Nearby Support is at 4180 then 4107.

Resistance is at 4280 to 4309. A close over 4335 augurs for a test of the 4380 region. Beyond that resistance is 4550 and 4630.

 

September Heating Oil Recommended Position long at 3748

Resistance is at 3695 and 3751 then 3822 to 3880. Beyond that 3910 offers resistance.

Support is at 3650 and 3590. Below that 3560 to 3550 should contain a break.

 

The Grande Grains

November Soybeans Recommended Position Long at 588, 2 @ 566 1/4

Support is at 555 and 540 Traders should buy for the Pull at 540 1/2.

Resistance is at 567/568. A close over 569 is friendly for a rally to 583.

Traders should prepare for a 20 to 30 cent rally in the next week or so.

Dec. Soybean Meal

Support is 144 and 141.5. Traders should go long at 143 for a good turn higher, risk a close under 137.70 for three days in a row.

Resistance is at 147.8 and 152.

**Traders should now go long if a close over 147.8 occurs.

Trade Accordingly.

Dec. Soybean Oil recommended position long at 2475

Support is at 2461 and 2437, under that Traders should buy at 2412 Risk a close under 2354 for three days in a row.

Resistance is at 2507 to 2519 and the 2531 region.

Dec. Corn

Support is at 219 1/4 below that 212 should hold. Traders should buy at 212 for a 2-3 day bounce, risk a close under 208 for two days in a row.

Resistance is at 227 3/4 and 229 1/2, a close over 229 1/2 augurs for a short covering rally to 235 and 239.

Dec. Wheat

Resistance is at 270 3/4 a close over 270 3/4 augurs for a rally to 274

On the Downside Support is at 266 1/2 and 262.

 

The Satisfying Softs

Dec. Cotton Recommended Position Long at 7513,7235,7092

Support is at 7089, below that 7030 and 7003 to 6990 offers good support.

Resistance is 7163 and 7189 to 7239 Beyond that Traders should go long /add if a close over 7256 occurs

Trade Accordingly

Oct. Sugar recommended trade elected short at 877

Support is at 864 then 852 and 828. Traders can buy at 823, risk a close under 814 for three days in a row..

Resistance at 877 to 882 and 903 then 907 and 912 to 921.

Sept. Coffee: Recommended position short at 116.90,

On the downside, Early support is at 127.40 126.80 and 125.70 to 125.15 then 122.15 and 121, 60 then 120.30, A close under 126.80 is negative for a test of 121.60

Well Heeled Day traders can buy at 126.80 for a bounce, risk a trade under 123.10

On the Upside, Resistance is at 129.25 and 130.70 to 131.95, beyond that a test of 137.70 to 138.80 is likely..

Sept. Cocoa Recommended Position Long at 1586, 1570 and 1535.

Support. Is at 1537 to 1529 and 1523.

Resistance is at 1569 to 1574 then 1587 to 1590.

The Lively Livestock

October Cattle Recommended Position long at 3 @ 6210.

Support is at 5942. Below that 5917 should bring out a few buyers.

Resistance is at 6047 and 6067. A close over 6047 augurs for a test of 6157.

August Hogs Recommended Position long 2 at 4977

Support is at 4855 to 4845 below that support is at 4777 to 4740 and 4707

Resistance is at 4907 and 4940 and 5007. Where good sellers remain. However a close over 4942 today should bring out some short covering from the Funds,

October Hogs Recommended Position Long at 4612 and 2 @ 4382.

Resistance is at 4302 and 4357.

Support is at 4250. Below that Hearty traders can buy at 4227 for a good bounce Below that 4190 should hold basis the close.

Traders should start hoarding the long Oct. Hogs for a 3 to 5 cent rally.

A close today over 4302 augurs for a test of 4450.

--From the Frying Pan into the Fire--

August Bellies Recommended Position long at 5917 HOLD

Support is at 5522 then 5477 and 5327, day traders should buy at 5507 and hold for higher prices,

Resistance is at 5627, an extended trade over augurs for a rally to 5777.

Stay bb Tuned.

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Sept. Bonds

On The Downside, Support is at 122-18 and 122-02. A close under 122-18 is negative, a close under 122-02 is bad augurs for an eventual slip to 121-18 and 121-13. Traders can buy at 121-13, risk a close under 120-08 for three days in a row.

On the Upside: Resistance is at 122-24 then 123-03 to 123-10 and 123-18. A close over 123-18 is friendly for a push towards 124-02 and 124-18. Sell at 124-13 for a turn lower, risk a close over 124-21 for two days in a row.

Sept. SP500

On the DownSide, support is at 1115.50 and 1107 to 1104 then 1101. Below that 1097.20 to 1096 should hold. However a close under 1096 is negative for a slip to 1086.30 and 1082.00. /below that Support is at 1070.20 to 1068, a close under 1068 is negative for a drop to 1058 and eventually 1149.70 to 1047 where traders can buy at 1049.70 and hold for higher prices.

On the Upside, Resistance is at 1126.90, Day traders can sell at 1126.90 for a quick turn lower and Stay tuned. Beyond that resistance is at 1129.10 to 1130 then 1132.50/ 1133. Beyond that good sellers should show up at 1138.50 and 1141.40 then 1150,

Above that good sellers should appear at 1160.40. Sell at 1160.50 and hold for lower prices.

Stay tuned for flashes.

A close over 1133 is friendly

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support is 8871 to 8856, under that support is at 8816 to 8805.5. A Slip under 8798 is negative and augurs for a pullback towards the 8777 to 8762 region. A close under 8759 augurs for a test of 8719 and an eventual test of 8683 to 8668. Below that 8598 should hold if not an eventual break down towards 8180 is likely.

Resistance should first appear at 8901 and 8934 and 8964. A close over 8964 augurs for a test of 8984 to 8995 then 9004. Above that good resistance is at 9028 then 9044 to 9060

One should trade the SP500 like porcupines make love, carefully.

Happy Trading

Bill

Sunday. August 2nd 1998

05:14 PM

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