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"A man can have great mathematical ability and unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also possesses the experience and memory. "
-Reminiscences of a Stock operator-

Morning Comments
8/4/1998

 

Tuesday August 4th 1998
4:43 AM

On the Frenzied Forex Front

Sept. J-Yen Recommended Position Long at (3) at 7245 and 3 at 7003

Nearby Support is 6940 to 6930 and 6919 to 6906 then 6896,

Holding over 6930 to 6940 is friendly for a rally to 7003.
Resistance is at 6990 to 7003 then 7023 and 7039 to 7057, However a close over or extended trade over 7003 augurs for a rally to 7074 and 7088.

Sept. Swiss Recommended Position long at 6990 and 6757

Resistance is 6707 then 6711 and 6743 to 6755. A close over 6743 augurs for a test of 6761 Beyond that resistance is at 6811 and 6840. Support is at 6673 and 6661 to 6643

Buy Dips

Sept. British Pound:

Support is at 1.6196 Below that a slip to 1.6150/ 1.6090 is likely. Traders should buy at 1.6150 and hold for higher prices. Resistance is at 1.6300 to 1.6330 and 1.6420

Sept. D-Mark Recommended Position long at 5490 and 5610

Nearby Resistance is at 5640 and 5653 to 5659. A close over 5630 is friendly, a close over 5659 indicates a likely test of 5716 to 5729.

Support is at 5609. Below that support is at 5600 then 5594 and 5577. Traders can buy at 5589, risk close under 5553 for three days in a row.

Buy Dips

Sept. Canadian Dollar

Support is at 6591 and 6577. Resistance is at 6614 then 6624 and 6651.

Precious Metals

Dec gold Recommended position long 2 at 291

Support is at 287.6 and 286. Beneath that support is at 281 and 277

**Traders can buy at 288.00, risk $ 4.00

Resistance is at 293.1 and 297.6 A close over 293 augurs for a test of 301 to 303.60 where good sellers should appear.

**Traders should go long if a close over 293 occurs.

Trade Accordingly.

Sept. Copper: Recommended Position Long at 7710

Nearby Support is at 7465 and 7435. Below that support is at 7400 and 7345.

Resistance is at 7590 then 7640 A close over 7640 augurs for a test of 7840

Buy this dip

Oct. Platinum Recommended Position long at 372.5

Nearby Support is at 368.5 and 366.

Resistance is at 373 then 377 and 382.

Bullish long term.

Sept. Silver Recommended Position long at 565, 570, 553.5

On the Downside: support is at 529 to 522, day traders should buy at 530 for a good bounce, risk 10 cents On the Upside. Resistance is at 542.5 and 549. 

The Exciting Energies

September Crude Recommended Position Long at 1418 and 1377

Support is at 1349 to 1346 and 1334. Resistance is at 1373 and 1383 then 1390. A close over 1383 indicates a test of the 1415 region.

September Unleaded Gas recommended position long at 4249

Nearby Support is at 4187 then 4095 to 4087.

Resistance is at 4230 and 4287 to 4295. A close over 4239 augurs for an eventual test of 4387.

September Heating Oil Recommended Position long at 3748

Resistance is at 3634 and 3760. Support is at 3565 and 3535.

 

The Grande Grains

November Soybeans Recommended Position Long at 588, 2 @ 566 1/4

Support is at 549 and 540 Traders should buy for the Pull at 540 1/2.

Resistance is at 558 3/4. A close over 558 is friendly for a rally to 563.

Dec. Soybean Meal Recommended position long at 143

Support is 142.2 and 140.8. Resistance is at 145.2 and 150.

**Traders should go long/ add if a close over 145.2 occurs.

Trade Accordingly.

Dec. Soybean Oil recommended position long at 2475 and 2412

Support is at 2419 and 2411 then 2370. Resistance is at 2434 to 2442 and 2461 to 2469 region. A close over 2442 is friendly and augurs for a test of 2469.

Dec. Corn

Support is at 2201/4 and 218 3/4 below that 212 should hold. Traders should buy at 212 for a 2-3 day bounce, risk a close under 208 for two days in a row.

Resistance is at 224 3/4 and 225 1/2, a close over 225 1/2 augurs for a short covering rally towards resistance at 228 and 230.

Dec. Wheat

Resistance is at 269 3/4 and 270 1/2 to 271 1/2. Beyond that resistance is at 277 1/2

A close over 269 3/4 augurs for a rally to 277

On the Downside Support is at 265 1/2 and 262 3/4

 

The Satisfying Softs

Dec. Cotton Recommended Position Long at 7513,7235,7092

Support is at 6995, below that 6962 offers good support.

Resistance is 7068 and 7080 to 7095

Oct. Sugar recommended trade elected short at 877

Support is at 864 then 852 then 847 to 845.

Resistance at 877 to 882 and 885. Beyond that 896 and 907 offers good resistance.

Sept. Coffee:

On the downside, Early support is at 130.40 and 129.40 and 128.40

Well Heeled Day traders can buy early dips at 130.40 and 128.40 for a bounce, risk a trade under 125.10.

On the Upside, Resistance is at 13100 and 131.90, beyond that a test of 134.40 to 138.30 . Which is now more likely than not.

A close under 128.35 is negative.

Sept. Cocoa Recommended Position Long at 1586, 1570 and 1535.
Risk a close under 1529 for two days in a row on all positions

Support. Is at 1529 and 1523 then 1514.

Resistance is at 1544 and 1551 then 1569 to 1573.

The Lively Livestock

October Cattle Recommended Position long at 3 @ 6210.

Support is at 5880 and 5855. Below that 5847 then 5777 should bring out buyers.

Resistance is at 5915 to 5920 to 5932. A close over 5917 augurs for a test of resistance at 5995.

August Hogs Recommended Position long 2 at 4977

Support is at 4927 to 4917 below that support is at 4897.

Resistance is at 5012 and 5032 beyond that a test of 5112 to 5127 is likely.

October Hogs Recommended Position Long at 4612, 2 @ 4382 and 4227.

Resistance is at 4267, a trade over augurs for a test of 4302 to 4315. Beyond that a pop to 4367 is likely.

Support is at 4235. Below that Hearty day traders can buy at 4167 for a good bounce

A close today over 4267 augurs for an eventual test of 4435.

--From the Frying Pan into the Fire--

August Bellies Recommended Position long at 5917 HOLD

Support is at 5632, * traders should buy at 5632 and hold for higher prices,

Below that support is at 5620 and 5577 Below that 5555 should contain a break.

Resistance is at 5717 to 5727. An extended trade over 5727 augurs for a rally to 5782 to 5792. A close over 5782 is friendly for a test of 5917 to 5932.

Stay Tuned.

The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets

Sept. Bonds

On The Downside, Support is at 122-30 and 122-19 then 122-00. A close under 122-19 is negative, and augurs for a slip to 122-00.

On the Upside: Resistance is at 123-19. A close over 123-19 is friendly for a push

towards 124-00 and 124-19. Sell at 124-13 for a turn lower, risk a close over 124-21 for two days in a row.

Sept. SP500

On the DownSide, support is at 1118, 1115.50 and 1107 to 1104 then 1101. Below that 1097.20 to 1096 should hold. However a close under 1096 is negative for a slip to 1086.30 and 1082.00. /below that Support is at 1070.20 to 1068, a close under 1068 is negative for a drop to 1058 and eventually 1149.70 to 1047 where traders can buy at 1049.70 and hold for higher prices.

On the Upside, Resistance is at 1124.10,

Day traders can sell at 1124.10 for a quick turn lower. Beyond that resistance is at 1129.20 to 1130 then 1132.20/ 1133. Beyond that good sellers should show up at 1138.50 and 1141.40 then 1150,

Above that good sellers should appear at 1160.40. Sell at 1160.50 and hold for lower prices.

**traders should sell at 1129.20 and hold for lower prices. In addition A close under 1115.50 is negative , if that occurs traders should go short.

Stay tuned for new trades and flashes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support is 8777 to 8762 region. A close under 8759 augurs for a test of 8736 and an eventual test of 8683 to 8668. Below that 8598 should hold if not a break down towards 8180 is likely.

Resistance should first appear at 8836 and 8849. Beyond that resistance is at 8856 to 8871. A close over 8871 augurs for a test of 8934 to 8964. Beyond that resistance is at

8995.

 

Happy Trading

Bill

Tuesday August 4th 1998

06:22 AM

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