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Morning Comments
February 13th 1998
 

THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS. REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.

Friday, February 13, 1998
4:19:22 AM

Some markets may close early today and Monday is the Presidents Day holiday.

On the Frenzied Forex Front

March J-Yen
Nearby support is at 8044, More downside support should appear at 7988 then 7963 and 7954. Traders can buy for a position  at 7963. Risk  a close Under 7939  for three days in a row Below that 7868  to 7836 should act as Support.
If that fails traders should buy at 7777 for a ‘bounce’  risk 30 pts. Resistance today is near 8088 .  A  close over 8164 is bullish , traders should go long if that occurs.  Some sellers should appear near 8223 beyond that 8300 to 8314 should trade. If a sharp rally to 8526 ensues go short for a turn , risk a close over 8589 for three days in a row.

Near term a close over 8064 is friendly.
Eventually I see a test of 8800.

Trade Accordingly

March Swiss Franc Recommended Position Long 6857
Support should appear at 6820 to 6828. Day traders should buy at 6822 , risk a trade under 6803. Resistance should begin 6870 then 6920 to 6928. Beyond that a test of  6954 is likely. A close over 6958 augurs for a 'pop' to 6990 / 7003 beyond that 7039 is likely.
A close over 7039 augurs for a Thrust to 7074. A  close over 7088 augurs for a 'pop' to 7120 and most likely the 7143 to 7170 region where resistance  should appear. A close over 7170 indicates a pop to 7243 to 7256.  Sell short at 7242 for position, risk a close  over 7257 for two days in a row.

 Traders should still expect a weaker Dollar over the next few weeks

Buy Dips

March British: Recommended Position Long at 163.40
Support is near 162.90 and  161.50. Resistance is at 164.20 and 165.50 , a close over 163.20 augurs for a test to 164..20 and 165.50.   Beyond that sellers should appear near 169.60. Sell short at 169.40, risk a close over 169.96 for two days in a row.

March D-Mark
Early support is at 5472 and 5462. Buy at 5462 risk a close  under 5416  for three days in a row. Below that support should appear near 5423 where day traders can buy at for a bounce, risk a trade under  5402.
Nearby Resistance is at  5522 and 5552 . A close over 5558 is friendly , traders should go long if that occurs. Resistance is near 5574 and 5581 early in the week . Beyond that 5608 and 5610 to 5628 offer resistance.  A close over 5610 augurs for a pop to 5640 / 5653. Traders should sell at 5653 for a quick 'day' turn lower, looking to cover back against 5610 ,stay tuned.
However a close over 5653 augurs for a test of 5716 to 5729. A close over 5729 augurs for a test of 5781 to 5792  then 5812. Sell short for a turn lower at  5812, risk a close over 5855 for tow days in a row.

Trade Accordingly

March Canadian Dollar
Early Support is near the  6952 and 6910.  Traders should go long  at  6919 for a bounce , risk  a close under 6906  for three days in a row.
Resistance is near 6990  and 7002 more should appear at 7039 and 7074 to 7088, sell short for a turn lower at 7081, risk a close over 7089 for three days in a row.
 

Precious Metals

April Gold
Good Support is near 298.5  and 296.1 Below that buy weakness at 293.8  Below that 291 offers support. Resistance is  303.5 and 305, traders can go long on a close over 304.5  A close  over 305  augurs for a rally back to 311 where resistance remains.  Beyond that 316.4 / 318.9 to 321 or beyond to 331 is likely  to be tested.

March Copper
Support is at 7620 and 7525 Resistance is at  7735 a close over is  friendly for a 'pop' to 7890. Beyond that 7865 offer's resistance , a close over 7925 indicates a rally back to 8050, above that traders should sell at 8300 risk a close over 8320 for two days in a row.

April Platinum
Support is near  386.5 and 376.5 , go long at 378.5, risk  a close under 373 for three days in a row. Below that support should appear  near 367. Buy at 369 for a 2- day bounce , risk  a close under 358. Resistance is at  389 and 396 beyond that 406 , a close over 407 augurs for a test of  413 or higher.

Friendly..
 
March Silver
Early support is at 691 Below that support should appear at 688 then down under at 661 an 655 Go long March Silver at 655 for a bounce, risk 10 cents.
Resistance is near  727 and 741.

A close over 737 augurs for as test of 774  to 777. Beyond that 812 should trade.

 

                             The Exciting Energies

March Crude Recommended Position Long at 1643 Risk a close under 1608 for two more days in a row.
Support is at 1579 and 1569. Resistance should first appear near  1620 then 1645, an extended  trade over or close over 1695 augurs for test of  1740.

March-Unleaded Gas Recommended Position Long at 5060.
Good support should appear near  4885. Resistance should raise it's head at 5005
a close over 5005 is friendly
 

March Heating Oil Recommended Position Long at 4585
Resistance is near 4515 a close over suggests higher prices. Support is  4450 and 4420
 

                              The ‘Grande’ Grains

March Beans: Recommended Position Long at 677 3/4
Early support is 680 and 673 3/4 to 671. Resistance is 687 and 694.

Long Term Traders should start to  Buy July Beans in this region

March Soybean Meal Recommended Position Long at 197.50 and 194 risk a close under 190 for three days in a row.
Support should appear is at 190.1 and 189. Resistance is near 196. However a close over 191.5  is friendly for a eventual test of 199
 

March Soybean Oil
Early support is at 2646 below that 2616  Resistance is near  the  2654 region and 2694.
A close over 2655 augurs for a rally to 2700.  Beyond that  Traders should sell at 2757, risk a close over 2776 for two days in a row. Beyond that 2829 to 2849 should cap a rally.

March Corn
Support is should appear near 268 3/4 and 265. Buy at 265 risk a close under 261 for three days in a row. Resistance is near the 271 / 273 1/2  region . A  close over 276.  augurs for a ‘pop’ to 279.

A higher close today is friendly for a rally next week.
 

March Wheat Long at 331 3/4
Support is at 333. Beneath that 326 1/2 to 323 should be considered a buying region. Go long at 326 1/2  and hold. Resistance is near   338 1/4 a close over 338 1/2 augurs for a trade to 343 and beyond  to  350.

Trade Accordingly

                               The Satisfying Softs

March Cotton
Early Support is at  6650 then 6567, buy at 6568 a close under 6508 for three days in a row. Resistance is at  6830. Traders should sell short at 6830, risk a close over 6890.

Long Term Friendly on Dips.
 

March Sugar
Nearby support is 1097 more  Support should appear near 1076 .  Resistance is near  1107 and 1116 .  A close over 1136 augurs for trade to 1165 and 1192 to 1205.

March Coffee Recommended Position Long at 176.50 and 169.60
On the Downside early support is at 167.00 then 165.50 and 164.20, if that fails a trade to the 161.50/ 160.80 region is likely. Traders should go long at 159.40 and  hold.  On the Upside, resistance is near 169.20 to 169.50, a close over 169.60 augurs for a test of  174.10 and 175.40 , beyond that 177.70 and 178.00, above that 178.90, an extended trade over, or close  over 179.40 augurs for a rally to 180.40  with a likely test of 181.40 and 182.20 where good resistance remains. Above that  184.30 to 186.50 should cap a rally for a bit. Beyond that  Traders should sell at 194.60 risk a close over 195.30. for two days in a row. More sellers should appear near 198.20 and 199.60.

Pick Your Poison and Keep a Steel 'Cup’ handy.

 
May Cocoa Recommended Position Long at 1554. Traders should protect the position today with a stop close only at 1526.

Early resistance is  1530. Support is near 1509 . More support should appear at 1492
A close over 1530 augurs for a rally to  1545 and 1577.

                        The Lively Livestock

April Live Cattle Recommended Position Long at 6602.
Support is 6655 and  6627 Resistance is near at  6690 and 6705   A close over 6705 augurs for a rally to 6757 with a likely touch of Resistance near the 6807 to 6842 region.
 

April Hogs Recommended Position Long at 5557 and 5440
Traders should risk a close under 5332 for three days in a row on all positions.
Early Resistance is at 5400 and 5500  Support is near 5355 and 5300

A close over 5400 is friendly  for a trade to 5500.
 

March Bellies Recommended position Long at 4612.
Support is near 4447 and  4405. Resistance is near resistance is near 4547 and 4590 to 4620, a close over 4582 is friendly for a rally to 4700.

‘From the Frying Pan into the fire’

 
             The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
 

March  30 Yr. Bonds
Near Term support  is at 121-00 and 120-20. A close under 120-18  augurs for a slip to the 119-18 region, below that traders should buy at 119-00, risk a close under 118-20 for three days in a row. Below  that  117-11 should hold, buy at 117-11 for a bounce, risk a close under 116-20 for  two days in a row. Resistance is at  121-22  and 122-22 traders should sell at 122-18 risk a close over  122-24 for two days in a row.
 

March SP500
On the Downside, Support is near  1019.70  and 1016.60 below that  1013.10 / 1012.00 region and 1010.4.  A close under 1010.4 is negative

* Note 1022.90 is critical and should must basis the close.

Below that 1008.10 and the 1007.50 /1007.10 region  offer support.  A slip under 1007.10 augurs for a trade to 1009.30 and the 1003.70/ 1003.40 region  with 1002.10 below that. Failure of 1002.10 basis the close indicates a  decline to 997.90. Below that
993.70 to 992.10 and 987.90 offer support as does 986.00.

On the Upside Early Resistance is at  1025.10 and 1031.80 to  1032.0 and 1036.0 which should cap this current rally, traders should sell at 1035.80 and hold. Risk a close over 1036.00 for two days in a row. Beyond that 1047 is likely with 1058 and 1068 beyond that.

Currently the March SP500 is down about 500 after yesterday's action one might  term last evenings trading a bit disappointing.

A close under 1007.50 is negative. If this happens  traders who have Ice water running through their veins should go Short

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Initial support is at 8314, 8307 and 8300. 8307 is critical basis the close, a close back under 8300 augurs for a pullback to 8223.85 and 8194 below that 8143 to 8138 and 8134 to 8119.  An early break this week, however if it fails at 8076 a slip to 7969 to 7954 is likely. A close under 7947 is negative and indicates  an eventual decline to 7640. Resistance is near 8391 to 8406  and should bring a few sellers off the sidelines for profit taking  Beyond that 8445 and 8486 offer resistance.

Happy Trading and Have a Happy and Safe Three Day Weekend.

Bill

Friday Feb 13 1998
5:47 AM

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