Economic and Investment Trend Analysis - Socio Economics - Forex - Bonds - Dow Jones - Nasdaq - SP500
Precious Metals - Energy - Livestock - Grains - Softs
FuturesCom Investment Publications
Morning Comments, Monday Sept 30th, 2002
Experienced Since 1979 - Serving Professional and Individual Traders World Wide since 1988
7690 Rockport Circle, Lake Worth, Florida 33467 Tel: 1-561-433-2995 http://www.futurescom.com
Description of Services Premier Service
Observation. Experience, memory and mathematics--These are what a successful trader must depend on. A man can have great mathematical ability and unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also Possesses the Experience and Memory. -Reminiscences of a Stock operator-
Sunday, September 29, 2002
9:00 AM, ET.
U.S. Economic reports due out this week (eastern time)
Monday: Period Previous Estimate
0830 Personal Income Aug 0.0% +0.4%
0830 Personal Consumption Aug +1.0% +0.5%
1000 Chicago PMI Sept 54.9 53.0
Tuesday
1000 ISM Manufacturing Index Sept 50.5 51.0
1000 Construction Spending Aug. 0.0% -0.4%
U.S. Car Sales Sept 6.6 mln 6.0 mln
U.S. Light Truck Sales Sept 8.8 mln 8.0 mln
Thursday
0830 Initial Jobless Claims Sept 28 406,000 415,000
1000 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Sept 50.9 51.8
1000 Factory Orders Aug +4.7% -0.3%
Friday
0830 Nonfarm Payrolls Sept. +39,000 +20,000
0830 Unemployment Rate Sept. 5.7% 5.9%
The ‘Frenzied’ Forex Front
December Yen
Supp
Resistance should appear near 8194 to 8223, a extended trade over augurs for a test of 8300 to 8314.
December Euro Currency (EC)
Support should appear at 9737 then 9721 to 9706 and 9641 to 9625. BW Traders can buy at 9642 and risk a close under 9625 for three days in a row.
Resistance is at 9779 and 9821 to 9837 ..BW Traders should go long if a close over 9784 occurs
Stay tuned for Updates
December Swiss Franc
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 6708
Resistance should appear near 6708 and 6741 to 6755
Support should appear near 6673 to 6659 and 6626
December British Pound
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 1.5532
Support should appear near 1.5512 and 1.5426.
Resistance is at 1.5594 and the 1.5690 to 1.5760 region..
December Canadian Dollar
Support should appear at 6303 and 6270 to 6257
BW Traders should go long if a close over 6362 occurs
December Aussie Dollar
Recommended Open BW Position Long 2 at 5436 avg
Support is at 5389 and 5356 to 5344.
Resistance is at 5430 and 5462
BW Traders should go long if a close over 5437 occurs.
The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Resistance should appear near 7763 to 7777 and 7836 to 7864, beyond that sellers should appear near 7939 to 7954
Support should appear near 7689 to 6775 , a slip under augurs for a test of 7601 to 7589
December SP500
Resistance is at 830.00 to 831.40 then 830.10 to 840.60 and the 856.00 to 858.90 region
Support should appear near 822.30 to 819.40 and 813.40 to 811.90 and the 804.40 to 802.90 region.
Nasdaq Composite
Resistance is at 1202 and 1217 then 1232 to 1238. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1253 and the 1268 to 1274 region. Which should Cap a rally for a bit.
Support should appear near 1192 then 1180.50 and 1169 to 1164
December Mini Nasdaq 100
Resistance is at 876.00 to 877.50 then 893.50 to 896.50 and the 904.40 to 906.00 region.
Support is at 859.00 to 856.00 then 850.00 to 848.50 and 840.50 to 839.00 .
December Ten Year T-Notes
Resistance
Support is at 115-07 and 114-23
December Gold
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 323.9
Support should appear at 319.4 and the 315.7 to 314.8 region..
Resistance is at323.7 and 326.1 to 327.2
BW Traders should go long if a close over 327.4 occurs
Support should appear near 6670 to 6655. Below that buyers should appear near 6590 to 6575 and the 6510 to 6480 region.. BW Traders can buy at 6515 and risk a close under 6320 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near 6740 to 6755 and 6810 to 6835
December Silver
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 460.5
Support should appear near 450.5 and 444.5 to 443.5.
Resistance is at 457.0 to 458.5
The Exciting Energies
November Crude Oil
Support should appear near 3045 to 3036 and 2990 to 2972 under that buyers should appear near 2937 to 2928 Aggressive BW Traders can buy at 2941 and hold or higher prices ..
Resistance is at 3092 to 3102. Beyond that a test of 3148 to 3157 is likely.
November Natural Gas
Resistance is at 4.110 to 4.120 and 4.238 to 4.249.
Support is at 3.992 to 3.982 and 3.858 to 3.867.
November Unleaded Gas
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 8175
Support should appear near 8045 to 8025 then 7955 to 7935 and 7865 to 7835
Resistance is at 8115 to 8140 and 8195 to 8220.
November Heating Oil
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 8160.
Resistance is at 8195 to 8225 and the 8385 to 8405 region.
Support should appear near 8115 and 7955 to 7935 then 7865 to 7835
The Lively Livestock
The USDA issued is All _Important Quarterly Hog production numbers after the close on Friday.
All hogs and pigs, kept for breeding and kept for marketing - came in below the average of analysts' projections. But not to the extreme. Look for a 50- to 100-point bounce in Feb lean hogs,
While the front-month and deferred contracts are should be 30 to 50 higher.
We like the idea of buying Feb and selling Dec.. but prefer to wait until the mkt settles down a bit before looking at the spread. Premier Subscribers should stay tuned ...
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a 101.0% Sept. 1 all hogs and pigs number, compared with a pre-report range of estimates of 100.4% to 103.0% with an average of 101.7%.
Numbers indicated that 98.0% were kept for breeding versus a 98.8% average estimate from a range
97.8% to 100.6%. Kept for marketing was 101.0% came was also within it's 100.7% to 104.5% range.
But the average was 102.0%.. Interestingly t e breeding herd figure was reported 2% below a year ago , which is the more bullish part of the report..
The industry is reacting properly to due to unprofitable hog prices as Corporations need to reduce the herd
to get prices back to a profitable level. Much of the report may have already been built into the back end of the mkt, but a nice rally from current levels should occur. However anything can happen as total pork inventories in the freezer may continue to weigh on the front end ...even though the industry is reversing its production trend more quickly than some expected....
December Live Cattle
Nearby Support
Resistance is at 7077 to 7087 and 7142 to 7172.
December Hogs
Support is at 3867 to 3857 and 3807 to 3792.
Nearby Resistance is at 3912 to 3927 an extended trade over augurs for a test of
3982 to 3992. and 4047 to 4057
February Hogs
Support is at 4447 to 4427.
Nearby Resistance is at 4572 to 4582 and 4637 to 4652
February Pork Bellies
Support should appear near 7342 to 7327 7257 to 7242
Resistance is at 7487 to 7512 and 7587 to 7602
-Stay tuned for Livestock Updates and Flashes-
Prior to the open Monday, the USDA will release it's small grains report( which will include the Sept 1 , 2002 Wheat crop estimate) and Quarterly Grain Stocks report.
The U.S. wheat crop average estimate is 1.668 billion bushels, a bit under the USDA August figure.
In August, the USDA forecast the crop at 1.686 billion bushels, which is the smallest crop since 1972, when the crop was measured at 1.546 billion bushels, and down 272 million from last year's reduced harvest.
Reductions are seen in the spring wheat classes after rain and wind damaged fields at harvest. Estimates for other spring wheat production is 434 million bushels, down 14 million the August crop report.
Reduction in harvested acreage is also seen after the late season storms and high abandonment occurred in southern North Dakota, western Minnesota and South Dakota due to drought problems.
The average estimate for Sept. 1 U.S. wheat stocks is 1.759 billion bushels, The Soybeans carryout is estimated to be near 195 million bushels.. While the Corn ending stocks should range between 1.614 billion bushels to 1.667 billion...
November Soybeans
Recommended Open BW Position, Long 2 at 561 3/4
Resistance is at 564 to 565 1/2 and 571 3/4 to 572 1/2
Support should appear at 557 3/4 to 555 1/4 then 550 1/2 to 549 1/4 and 546 1/4.
December Soymeal
Support should appear near 173.8.to 173.1 which should contain a decline for a bit..
BW Traders can buy at 173.9 and risk a close under 171.2 for three days in a row.
Resistance is at 177.4 to 178.0
BW Traders should go long if a close over 182.6 occurs.
December Soybean Oil
Recommended Open BW Position, Long 2 at 2035 avg
Resistance is near 2034 to 2042, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 2080 to 2088
Support should appear near 1996 to 1984 and 1953 to 1946
Dec Corn
Recommended Open BW Position, Long 277 3/4
Resistance should appear near 261 1/4 to 262 and 261 1/4 to 262
Support should appear near the 256 3/4 to 255 1/2 region
December Wheat
Recommended Open BW Position, Long 2 at 410 1/2 avg
Support should appear near 399 1/4 to 398 1/4 then 392 3/4 to 390 3/4 and the 386 3/4 to 385 3/4 region
Resistance is at 404 3/4 to 405 3/4 then 411 to 412 and the 416 1/4 to 418 1/4 region.
Aggressive BW Traders should go long if a close over 406 ˝ occurs
The Satisfying Softs
December Cocoa
Recommended Open BW Position, Long 2157
Resistance is at the 2170 to 2185 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2219 to 2226 and the 2267 to 2275 region
Support should appear near 2134 to 2126 and 2088 to 2080 under that buyers should appear near
2042 to 2034 BW Traders can buy at 2035 and risk a close under 1942 for three days in a row ....
December Coffee
Support is near 5505 to 5490 and 5450 to 5415
Resistance should appear near 5575 and 5640 to 5655
March Sugar
Support should appear near 634 to 630 then 609 to 601..BW Traders can buy at 612 and hold for higher prices.. Risk a close under 579 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near 656 to 661.. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 682 to 686.
BW Traders should go long if a close over 665 occurs.
December Cotton
Support should appear near 4370 then 4315 to 4305 and 4255 to 4235
Resistance is at 4445 and 4505 to 4515 then 4570 to 4585
BW Traders should go long if a close over 4455 occurs.
A Ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill
bill@futurescom.com
1--561-433-2995
Sunday, September 29th, 2002
11:50 AM , South Florida Beach Time
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING ARE RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
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