Economic and Investment Trend Analysis - Socio Economics - Forex - Bonds - Dow Jones - Nasdaq - SP500
Precious Metals - Energy - Livestock - Grains - Softs
FuturesCom Investment Publications
Morning Comments, Monday November 25th, 2002
Experienced Since 1979 - Serving Professional and Individual Traders World Wide since 1988
7690 Rockport Circle, Lake Worth, Florida 33467 Tel: 1-561-433-2995 http://www.futurescom.com
The ‘Frenzied’ Forex Front
On Friday the dollar gained versus the Euro, and Swiss ..While the Aussie Dollar , British pound and Canadian Dollar were either side of unchanged by a bit.. Traders sold more yen as Japan's ruling coalition announced an economic stimulus package worth about 5 Trillion Yen. Muted as it may seem...they are trying.. for that i give them credit...
All occurred on the back of waning worries about conflict in Iraq, hope for a better 2003 in the U.S vs.. the
Euro zone and with ' much fanfare ' the Seven week rally in U.S Equity markets had Wall Street Jumping
for Joy and buying dollars...
Using extreme highs and lows the Nasdaq has now retraced less than 10 % of it's Decline, the Dow about
35 % and the SP500 about 21 % . All appear to be heading to third year of declines in a row...
..Keep Jumping....
On Friday It was quietly announced that on Dec 28th, 1 million Americans will lose Jobless benefits
Without much fan fare Comex Gold had an outside day up breaking the previous days lows then reversing and closing over the previous days highs, in fact over the previous four day highs and Nymex Crude Oil closed over the last thirteen sessions highs as traders moved towards hard assets...
Speaking of hard assets Argentine, farmers are using Grain as barter with the Big automakers for new cars..... What was once a hopeful thriving economy rich in history reverts back to ancient times..... What a mess..
Looking beyond the noise ..on Friday IMF Research Director Ken Rogoff said in the medium term..the next few years, the U.S current account deficit is going to begin to reverse and that will lead to a depreciation in the dollar. He also felt that eventually Japan will eventually move from deflation to inflation and that will cause the yen to depreciate...
During 19 of the last 26 years the Swiss Franc has risen against the dollar from the end of November to the end of December.. The seven down periods occurred when year over year it was a lower mkt.. this year the Swiss Franc is currently higher year over year.. Buy this dip..or to put in a better perspective if you short be careful...
December Yen
Nearby Support should appear near 8134 to 8119, below that buyers should appear near 8044 to 8029 and should contain a decline for a bit.. . Nearby Resistance should appear near 8162, an exented trade over is freindly and augurs for a test of 8194 to 8223
December Euro Currency (EC)
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 10041
Support should appear at 9937 to 9921 Resistance is at 9979 and the 10024 to 10037 region.
December Swiss Franc
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 6868
Resistance should appear near 6782 and 6809 Support should appear near 6755 to 6741.
December British Pound
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 1.5728
Support should appear near 1.5760 to 1.5690 and 1.5612 Resistance should appear near 1.5822 and 1.5912.
December Canadian Dollar
Support should appear near 6305 and 6270 to 6257. Resistance is at 6337 to 6350 , a close over augurs for a test of 6417 to 6430..
December Aussie Dollar
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 5582
Support is at 5608 and 5577 to 5553 Resistance is at the 5640 to 5653 region..
The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Resistance should appear near 8856 to 8871 and 8934 to 8964
Support should appear near 8777 to 8762 and 8689 to 8560 ..
December SP500
Recommended Open BW Position Short at 891.50
Resistance is at 931.60 to 934.70.. Beyond that sellers should appear near 942.90 to 944.50 and the 952.60 to 954.20 region
Support should appear near 923.60, a slip under augurs for a test of 915.60 and 914.00..
Nasdaq Composite
Resistance is at 1484 to 1496 and 1529 to1535
Support should appear near 1459 to 1453
December Mini Nasdaq 100
Resistance is at 1130 to1136 and 1164 to 1169
Support is at 1101 to1096.
March Ten Year T-Notes
Resistance should appear near 111-23 and 112-07
Support is at 111-07 and 110-23
Precious Metals
Feb Gold
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 319.1
Support should appear at the 319.4 and 317.6 .
Resistance is at 321.3
March Copper
Resistance should appear near 7485 to 7515 and the 7585 to 7605 region..
Support should appear near 7430 to 7415 and 7345 to 7325
December Silver
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 4.55
Traders should Roll the recommended Long Dec Silver to March on the Day Session Open
March Silver
Support should appear near 451.5 to 450.0 and 444.5 to 442.5
Resistance is at 457.5 to 458.5 and the 463.5 to 465.0 region.
The Exciting Energies
January Crude Oil
Support should appear near 2673 to 2663 then 2620 to 2612 and 2568 to 2552
Resistance is at 2716 to 2724
January Unleaded Gas
Recommended Open BW Position , long at 6995
Support should appear near 7255 to 7240 and 7080 to 7065
Resistance is at 7325 to 7345 and the 7485 to 7515 region
January Heating Oil
Resistance is at 7760 to 7780 and 7935 to 7955.
Support should appear near 7605 to 7585 and 7430 to 7415
January Natural Gas
Resistance is at 4.370 to 4.381 and 4.425 to 4.446
Support is at 4.315 to 4.304 and 4.249 to 4.238
The Lively Livestock
December Live Cattle
Resistance should appear near 7417 to 7427. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7487 to 7512.
BW traders can sell at 7482 for a turn lower and risk a close over 7522 for three days in a row
Support is at 7342 to 7327
Stay tuned for updates
December Hogs
Recommended Open BW Position, short at 2 at 4342 avg
Support is at 4507 and 4457 to 4447 .
Resistance is at 4572 to 4582 and the 4637 to 4652 region.
Feb Hogs
Support is at 5357 to 5342 and 5282 to 5257.
Resistance should appear near 5417 to 5432 and 5492 to 5507
February Pork Bellies
Recommended Open BW Position, Long at 8357
Support should appear at 817 to 8302 and 8227 to 8192
Resistance is at 8392 to 8407, beyond that a test of 8482 to 8502 is likely
-Stay tuned for Livestock and Belly Updates and Flashes-
The Grande’ Grains
Jan Soybeans
Resistance is at 571 3/4 to 572 3/4 and 579 1/4 to 580 1/2
Support should appear near the 565 1/4 to 564 and the 557 3/4 to 555 1/4 region
January Soymeal
Support should appear near 165.5 to 164.2
Resistance is at 168.9 to 169.6
December Soybean Oil
Recommended Open BW Position, Long 2236
Traders should roll the recommended long Dec Soyoil to Jan on the day session open
Cancel all open Dec Orders
January Soybean Oil
Resistance is near 2219 to 2226 and 2267 to 2275
Support should appear near 2185 to 2170
- BW Traders should go long if a close over 2249 occurs.
March Corn
Resistance should appear near 249 and 251 1/4 to 252
Support is at 246 1/4
December Wheat
Recommended Open BW Position, Long 2 at 402 1/2 avg
Support should appear at 373 3/4 and the 368 1/4 to 366 1/4 region.
Resistance is at 379 1/2 to 380 3/4 and 385 2/3 to 386 3/4
March Wheat
Support should appear at 368 1/4 to 366 1/4
Resistance is at 379 1/2 to 380 3/4
The Satisfying Softs
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 1753
Support is at 1731 and 1696 to 1689
Resistance should appear near 1738 then 1756 and the 1774 to 1780 region.
March Coffee
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 7240
Support is near the 7090 to 7070 and the 7005 to 6990 region .. Below that buyers should appear near 6835 to 6805 and the 6755 to 6740 region .
Resistance should appear near 7240 to 7255 then 7325 to 7345 and the 7415 to 7430 region.
March Sugar
Recommended Open BW Position, Long 2 at 737 avg
Support should appear near 739 to 735 and 712 to 704 .
Resistance should appear near 763 to 767
March Cotton
Support should appear near the 5035 then 4995 to 4975 and 4930 to 4915
Resistance is at 5125 to 5140 and 5200 to 5215, a close over augurs for a test of 5345 to 5355 ..
BW Traders should go long if a close over 5155 occurs .
Ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill
bill@futurescom.com 1-561-433-2995
Sunday , November 24th, 2002
12:15 PM , South Florida Beach Time
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING ARE RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
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FuturesCom Investment Publications Copyright@1996-2002 all rights reserved
U.S. government offices, banks and exchanges will be closed Thursday, Nov. 28 in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
CBOT: On Wednesday pit traded agricultural and financial contracts close at 1200 CT. On Friday pit traded agricultural and financial contracts close at 1200 CT. Stock-index contracts will close at 1215 CT.
CME: On Wednesday all pit traded foreign exchange and commodity futures and options will close at
1200 CT. Globex interest rate, foreign exchange and equity products trading will close at 1515 CT.
On Friday all pit traded interest rate, foreign exchange, and commodity futures and options will close at
1200 CT, equity products will close at 1215 CT. Globex interest rate, foreign exchange and equity products will close at 1215 CT.
KBOT: On Wednesday and Friday Wheat futures will close at 1200 CT.
NYBOT: Coffee, Sugar,Cocoa and Cotton will be closed on Thursday and Friday.
NYMEX: The exchange will be closed Thursday and Friday.