Economic and Investment Trend Analysis - Socio Economics - Forex - Bonds - Dow Jones - Nasdaq - SP500
Precious Metals - Energy - Livestock - Grains - Softs
FuturesCom Investment Publications
Morning Comments, Monday December 23rd, 2002
Experienced Since 1979 - Serving Professional and Individual Traders World Wide since 1988
7690 Rockport Circle, Lake Worth, Florida 33467 Tel: 1-561-433-2995 http://www.futurescom.com
“A lot of people approach risk as if it’s the enemy, when it’s really fortunes accomplice.”
The ‘Frenzied’ Forex Front
The Christmas schedule is at the end of today's letter.
4:00 AM Eastern Standard Time
March Yen
Support should appear near 8314 to 8300 and 8223 to 8195
Resistance should appear near 8352 and 8391 to8406
March Euro Currency (EC)
Support should appear at 1.0212 then 10185 and 10137 to 10104
Resistance is at 1.0285 and the 1.0320 to 1.0360 region. .
March Swiss Franc
Resistance should appear near 7038 and the 7074 to 7088 region
Support should appear near 7003 to 6990 and 6954.
March British Pound
Support should appear near 1.5926 then1.5886 and 1.5826.
Resistance should appear near 1.5982 and the 1.6090 to 1.6150 region
March Canadian Dollar
Support should appear near 6430 to 6417 and 6383
Resistance is at 6456.. Beyond that a test of 6483 to 6509 is likely
March Aussie Dollar
Support is at 5577 to 5553.
Resistance is at 5608 and the 5640 to 5653 region ..
BW Traders should go long if a close over 5657 occurs.
The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Resistance should appear near 8560 to 8589 and 8668 to 8683
Support should appear near 8499 to 8484 and the 8406 to 8391 region
March SP500
Resistance is at 904.40 to 906.00 and 914.00 to 915.60.
Support should appear near 896.40 to 893.40 and 887.1 to 885.60..
Nasdaq Composite
Nearby Resistance is at the 1377 to 1383 and the 1415 to 1421 region
Support should appear near 1346 to 1334
March Mini Nasdaq 100
Resistance is at 1032 to 1036 and 1058 to 1068.
Support is at 1005 to 1000 and 984.00 to 982.00
March Ten Year T-Notes
Resistance should appear near 114-07 and 114-17
Support is at 113-23 and 113-07
Feb Gold
Support should appear at 338.6 to 337.7 and the 332.8 to 331.9 region. . Below that 327 to 326.1 should contain a decline. BW Traders can buy at 327.1 for a bounce and hold for higher prices..
Resistance is at 342.5 to 344.3 and 349.3 to 350.3
March Copper
Support should appear near 7170 to 7140 and 7090 to 7070
Resistance should appear near 7240 to 7255 then 7325 to 7345 and 7415 to 7430.
March Silver
Support should appear near the 458.5 to 457 region.
Resistance is at 463.5 to 465.0 and 469.5 to 471.5
The Exciting Energies
Feb Crude Oil
Support should appear near 2990 to 2972 and 2937 to 2928.
Resistance is at 3036 to 3045 then 3092 to 3102 and 3148 to 3157
Feb Unleaded Gas
Resistance should appear near 8760 to 8780 then 8935 to 8965 and the 9044 to 9060 region
Support is at 8590 to 8560 and 8405 to 8390 which should hold.
Feb Heating Oil
Resistance is at 8665 to 8685 and 8855 to 8870
Support should appear near 8500 to 8485 and 8315 to 8300.
Feb Natural Gas
Resistance is at 5.211 and 5.259 to 5.282
Support is at 5.139 to 5.127 and 5.067 to 5.036 Below buyers should appear near 4.926 to 4.915 and contain a decline
The Lively Livestock
Friday after the close the USDA released it's All-Important Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage figures. Cattle was deemed bearish and should dip 50 pts on Friday , The latest U.S.D.A. monthly cattle-on-feed survey showed total number of cattle on-feed as of Dec. 1 =stood at 92% of last year, above the average estimate of 90.6%. November marketing's of 98 % were within the average of guesses. However feedlots placed 5% more animals during November 02 vs. 2001. The average guess was a 3% decline.
In addition total beef in cold storage at November's end stood at a scary 515.0 million pounds, above last years 427.6 million Traders should look for dampening prospects of a continued strong rally in cattle
Bacon , Bacon who has the Bacon ?
Cold Storage numbers for the venerable Pork Bellies should be supportive. U.S.D.A. monthly cold-storage figures showed 18.0 million pounds of Bellies in the freezers at the end of November, 50 % less than last years figures , below the average guesstimate of 20.0 million pounds. This figure represents the lowest end-November reading since 1965. .
Strong bacon demand and apparently not enough price incentives for commercials to hedge bellies and then store them for summer usage is beginning to show up in the numbers. Usually an 8.00 cent or more premium is needed in futures to cash to encourage storage and the premium for 12- to 18-pound bellies is under 6
cents on average for November. .
Decreasing Plentiful Pounds of Pork ... Record Ham numbers we mentioned during October and November appear to have drawn down nicely. Last year, hams drew down about 36 million pounds between October and November , this year the holiday draw down from the record October ham level was near
59 million pounds. Even though numbers for frozen hams which came in at 88.5 million pounds were above last years 66.0 million pounds. it was a heck of a lot less than October's record 147.9 million pounds and below the guess of over 100.0 million pounds before the report was issued. Aggressive ham pricing and sales in stores through Thanksgiving, past Christmas and into New Years should help stem the tide of hams that ballooned in October.
Over all at November's end total pork stood at 465 million pounds. While still over last years 432.7 million pounds and larger than their five year average for November, it's smaller than two years ago. A number less than 475 mil pounds is closer to 450 or under, rather than on it's way to 500 , as with the total beef figure. which is scary.
Still, except for the venerable belly, demand for pork over all still seems to be waning . Therefore to combat increased imports from Canada and waning demand, domestic producers are expected to provide less supplies in 2003 as aggressive pricing for Hams during the holiday was needed to clean up the pork.
On December 30th the USDA will release it's All-Important Quarterly Pig crop. The current estimates for the primary figures versus last year are: All hogs and pigs 98.3. Kept for breeding 96.9. Kept for marketing 98.4
Traders should stay tuned for new Hog and Cattle trades and Updates...
February Live Cattle
Resistance should appear near 7867 and 7937 to 7957
Support is at 7832 and 7777 to 7762
February Lean Hogs
Support is at 5142 to 5127 then 5067 to 5037 and 4997.. BW Traders can buy at 5002 for a turn higher and hold for higher prices.. Risk a close under 4907 for three days in a row.
Resistance is at the 5197 to 5212 and 5257 to 5282
February Pork Bellies
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 8850
Support should appear at the 8562 then 8502 to 8487 and the 8407 to 8392 region.. Below that buyers should appear near 8317 to 8302.. BW Traders can buy at 8317 and hold for higher prices…
Resistance is at 8667 to 8682. A close or extended trade over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8762 to 8777 and eventually the 8857 to 8872 region. Aggressive BW traders should go long if a close over 8692 occurs..
-Stay tuned for Belly Updates and Flashes-
The Grande’ Grains
Jan Soybeans
Resistance is at 572 1/2 and 579 1/4 to 580 1/2
Support should appear near 565 1/2 to 564 and 557 3/4 to 555 1/2..BW Traders should go long if a close over 581 1/4 occurs..
March Soymeal
Support should appear near 164.2 and 161.5 to 160.9.. Below that buyers should appear near 157.6 to 156.9
Resistance is at 165.5
BW Traders should go long if a close over 169.9 occurs
March Soybean Oil
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 2138
Resistance should appear near 2219 to 2226 and the 2267 to 2277 region.
Support should appear near 2185 to 2170 and 2134 to 2126 and 2088 to 2080.
March Corn
Resistance should appear near 241 1/4 to 242
Support is at the 237 to 235 1/2 region.
March Wheat
Recommended Open BW Position Long at 2 at 350 3/4
Support should appear at 342 1/2 and the 338 3/4 to 337 1/2 region. .. BW Traders can buy at 340 1/4 for the pull and hold for higher prices..
Resistance is at 344 1/2 and 349 1/4 to 350 1/2 .
The Satisfying Softs
March Cocoa
Support is at 2042 to 2034 and the 1996 to 1982 region..
Resistance should appear near 2080 to 2088 , a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 2126 to 2134
March Coffee
Support is near 6190 to 6165 and 6115 to 6100
Resistance should appear near 6255 to 6270 and 6335 to 6350
March Sugar
Support should appear near 751 then 739 to 735 and 712 to 704.
Resistance should appear near the 763 to 767 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 791 to 795. Beyond that sellers should appear near 814 to 823.
BWTraders should go long if a close over 771 occurs.
March Cotton
Support should appear near 5120 and 5065 to 5035
Resistance is at 5200 to 5210 and 5345 to 5355
A Ship in Harbor is Safe.. But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill
wil@futurescom.com 1-561-433-2995
Sunday, December 22nd, 2002
7:15 AM , South Florida Beach Time
THIS PUBLICATION CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES TRADING ARE RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
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FuturesCom Investment Publications Copyright@1996-2002 all rights reserved
Market Schedules for the Christmas Holiday
Chicago Board of Trade
Dec. 23: Overnight trading of agricultural contracts will be closed.
Dec. 24: Open auction and a/c/e trading of agricultural products will be closed.
Financial contracts will close at 1200 CT (1800 GMT), and stock-index futures will close at 1215 CT .
Dec. 25: Closed
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Dec. 24: Foreign exchange and interest rate futures and options will close at 1200 CT for pit trading
and 1215 CT for Globex electronic trading. All equities products will close at 1215 CT.
Commodity futures and options will be closed.
Dec. 25: Closed
Kansas City Board of Trade
Dec. 24: Wheat futures and options will not trade.
Dec. 25: Closed
Minneapolis Grain Exchange
Dec. 24: Wheat futures and options will not trade.
Dec. 25: Closed
New York Board of Trade
Dec. 24: Cotton and frozen concentrated orange juice products on the New York Cotton Exchange will not trade. New York Futures Exchange products will cease trading at 1315 ET, and all Finex NY products will close at 1300 ET .
Dec. 25: Closed
Dec. 26: Coffee, sugar and cocoa products on the Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange will not trade.
New York Mercantile Exchange
Dec. 24: Trading in aluminum and palladium will end at 1200 ET, copper and silver trade will end at 1205 ET, platinum and gold trading will end at 1210 ET , and energy markets will close at 1300 ET .
Dec. 25: Closed
Winnipeg Commodity Exchange
Dec. 24: Trading on the WCE will close early at 1200 CT and options will close at 1205 CT .
Dec. 25: Closed
Dec. 26: Closed
International Petroleum Exchange
Dec. 24: The IPE will close early at 1230 GMT.
Dec. 25: Closed
Dec. 26: Closed
Dec. 27: close early at 1730 GMT.
London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange
Dec. 24: close early at 1230 GMT.
Dec. 25: Closed
Dec. 26: Closed
London Metal Exchange
Dec. 25: Closed
Dec. 26: Closed
Dec. 27: Closed