Economic
and Investment Trend Analysis - Socio Economics
Forex - Bonds - Dow Jones - Nasdaq - SP500 - Precious Metals - Energy -
Livestock - Grains - Softs
Premier
Service - Platforms -
Quote - Economic
Calendar - Online
Signup - Bi-Weekly Outlook Archives
-
Special
Reports DIY Index
FuturesCom
Investment Publications
Morning Comments Monday January 24th , 2005
Serving
Professional and Individual Traders World Wide since 1988
7690 Rockport Circle , Lake Worth , Florida
33467 - USA and Canada Toll Free : 1-866-409-3890
- Intl : 1- 561-433-2995 http://www.futurescom.com
"Observation. experience , memory and mathematics--These are what a successful trader must depend on.
He Must not only observe accurately but remember at all times what he has observed. He cannot bet on the unreasonable or on the unexpected, however strong his personal convictions maybe about man's unreasonableness or however certain he may feel that the unexpected happens very frequently. He must bet always on probabilities--that is try to anticipate them. Years of practice at the game, of constant study, of always remembering, enables the trader to act when the unexpected happens as well as when the expected comes to pass. A man can have great mathematical ability and unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also possesses
the experience and memory " --Reminiscences of a Stock operator- 1929
Sunday, January 22nd 2005
3:00 AM Eastern time
As we move into the last week of the first month of the new year , the following markets are higher versus year end of 2004 and 2003:(percentages are versus 2003 and are approximate numbers )
Crude and Products 50 %,
Hogs 30 % ( basis June)
Cattle 22 %
Ten Year Note (1 tic)
Coffee 60 %
Silver 15 %.
Silver and coffee are mentioned because they are only a hair from being higher on month and year of 2004 and are both higher than 2003.
Stocks Gold and Grains are all lower since year end 2004
While the dollar is higher than 2004 end, lower versus 2003.
Of all the markets mentioned above the largest percentage gain from 2003 year end is Coffee...
Coffee is the strongest Bull market on the board and the action suggests the best action is in front of us not behind us ... Something to mention ... and act on
A this point , there appears to be a snowball in Miami chance of stocks closing month end any where near year end 2004.. However with the Equity market in a full fledged nasty sell- off and Iraq elections days away, the surprise may be now to the upside.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Resistance should
appear near 10415 and 10470
Support should appear near 10360 to 10320
March SP500
Recommended open position long 3 at 1189.40 avg
Resistance should appear near 1174.30 and 1180.50
Support should appear near 1166.50 to 1164.00.
Below that buyers should appear near 1150.00.
Nasdaq
Composite
Support should appear near 2034 and 1996 to 1984
Resistance should appear near 2042 to 2080 to 2088
March Mini Nasdaq 100
Recommended open position long at 1577
Resistance is at 1529 to 1535
Support is at 1496 to1484
March Mini Russell 2000
Recommended open position long 620
Support is at 611.30 to 610.10. Below that buyers should appear near 603.50
to 602.30 .
Resistance is at 616.5 to 619.0 and 625.70 to 627.00 an extended trade over is
friendly and augurs for a test of the 633.70 to 635.00 region.
March 10 Year T-Note
Resistance should
appear near 112-22 and 113-07
Support is
at 112-07 and 111-22..
Seasonals suggest a higher market going forward .. No change in Posture
The Frenzied Forex Front
March Yen
Recommended open position short 9610
Resistance should appear near 9821 to 9837
Support should appear near 9737 to 9706
March
Euro Currency (EC)
Recommended open position short at 13037
Support should appear at 13040 and 12890.
Resistance should appear near 13100 then 13160 and 13220
March
Swiss Franc
Recommended open position short at 8501
Resistance should appear near 8484 to 8499 and the 8560 to 8589 region..
Support should appear near 8406 to
8391, a close under augurs for a test of 8314 to 8300.
BW Traders should go short if a close under 8387 occurs
March
British Pound
Support should
appear near 18650 to 18580 region…
Resistance should appear near 18867 and 19020 to 19090
BW Traders should go short if a close under 18576 occurs.
March
Canadian Dollar
Support should appear near 8194 to 8223 .
Resistance is at 8119 to
8134
March
Aussie Dollar
Recommended open position short at 7532
Support should appear near 7601 to 7587.
Resistance should appear at 7675 to 7689
Precious Metals
It is our opinion that While gold offers respite from dollar woes and protection during times or uncertainty,
it's stature of a safe haven has been damaged ..The last decline essentially began during one of the worlds greatest natural disasters as well as human tragedies, those who pursue gold for a safe have need to ask themselves one thing.. if it cannot surge when over 200,000 people die in an instant .When then will it surge.?
Just opposite of our views in Dec 2001 when FuturesCom was one of the Few advocating for a weaker dollar and suggesting moving into hard assets . Now the Crowd is fully convinced of nothing else....
We see lower Gold Prices... Avoid the long side like the plague..
February Gold
Resistance should appear at 430.4 to 431.5 .
Support is at 424.9 to 423.8.
March Copper
Recommended open position short at 14140
Support should appear near 14210 to 14150
Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590.
BW Traders should go short if a close under 13740 occurs
March Silver
Support should appear near 675.5 to 674.0
Resistance is at 699.0 to 700.5.
The Exciting Energies
With current Crude and Product inventories above one year ago levels ,and prices 50 % than one year ago, 'Traders who have Ice Water in their Veins' should become sellers in to this weather rally..
We see crude eventually moving into the 4100 - 3500 range.
March Crude Oil
Resistance should appear
near 4856 then 4915 to 4926 and 4973 to 4995
Support should appear near 4785 to 4775 and 4717 to 4695
March Unleaded Gas
Recommended open position short at 12830
Resistance should appear near the 13340 to 13460 region .
Support should appear near 12740 to 12680
March Heating Oil
Recommended open position short at 13270
Resistance should appear near 13770 to 13830 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near
14150 to 14210 and 14530 to 14590.. Which should cap a rally..
Support should appear near 13460 to 13340 then 13100 to 13040 and the 12740 to
12680 region
The Lively Livestock
February Cattle
Recommended open position short 8940
Support should appear near 8872 to 8857 and 8777 to 8762.
Resistance is at 8937 to 8967 and 9042 to 9062
February
Hogs
Support is 7512 to 7487 and 7427 to 7412
Resistance should appear near 7587
to7602 and 7677 to 7692
April Hogs
Support is 7602 to 7587 and 7512 to7487
Resistance should appear near 7672 to 7692 and 7762 to 7777
February Pork Bellies
Recommended open Position Short at 9340
Resistance should appear near 9422 to 9447 and
9527 to 9542
Support is at 9347 to 9317
and the 9157 to 9137 region
The
Grande’ Grains
Traders should begin testing the long side of Grains .. we see a higher market past mid February
March Corn
Support should appear 195 ¼ to 194 ¾ and 190 ¾ to 190 ¼
Resistance is at 198 ¼ to 199 ¾ and 203 ½ to 204 ¼ .
March
Soybeans
Support is 513 3/4 to 512
3/4
Resistance is at 525 3/4
to 528 1/2
March
Soymeal
Support should appear near 153.5 to 152.9
Resistance should appear near 156.9 to 157.6
March
Soybean Oil
Resistance should appear near 2034 to 2042and 2080 to2088
Support
should appear near 1953 to1946 and 1909 to
1902.
March CBOT Wheat
Support should appear near 293 3/4 to 292 3/4 region.
Resistance should appear near 303 3/4 to 304 1/2
The Satisfying Softs
March ‘The Monster’ Coffee
Support
is near 10185 and 10135 to 10105
Resistance should appear near 10360 and 10580 to 10680
BW Traders should go long if a close over 10370 occurs
Look to buy this dip and re-enter longs
March
Cocoa
Support is at 1484 region.. A close under is negative and augurs for
a test of 1459 to 1453
Resistance is at 1529 to 1535 and 1569 to 1576.
BW Traders should go short if a close under 1483 occurs..
March
Sugar
Support should appear near 882 to 877, a close under augurs for a test of
852 to 847
Resistance should appear near 907 to 912 and 932 to 941.. BW
Traders can sell at 907 for
a turn lower and risk a close over 947 for three days in
row.
March
Cotton
Recommended open position long at 4675
Support should appear
near 4650 to 4635 and 4585 to 4570
Resistance should appear near 4775 to 4785 and 4845 to 4855
--Be Long --
.
- A Ship in Harbor is Safe...But that is not what ships
are built for –
Happy
Trading!
Bill
wil@futurescom.com
1-866-409-3890
Sunday January 23rd, 2005
4:25 AM South Florida Beach Time
THIS PUBLICATION IS SUBJECT TO REVISIONS AND CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF
THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES.
WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION.
FUTURES TRADING ARE RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS.
THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK.
THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES
POSITIONS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT
NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SOURCES
ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY.
ADDITIONAL RISK DISCLOSURE IS AVAILABLE.
FuturesCom Investment
Publications © copyright 1996 – 2005 all rights reserved Terms
Long March Mini Nasdaq 1577
Long March Mini Russell 620
Short March Yen 9610
Short March EC 13037
Short March Swiss Francs 8501
Short March Aussie Dollars 7532
Short March Unleaded Gas 12830
Short March Heating Oil 13270
Short Feb Cattle 8940
Short Feb Bellies 9340
Long March Cotton 4675