Futures Trading Newsletter ‘Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook’ #472.
FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Sunday April 19, 2015. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter see http://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
Accomplishments will prove to be a journey, not a destination”
–Dwight D. Eisenhower–
Friday April 17, 2015
9:00 PM, South Florida Beach Time
Traders should be prepared for wide movements in all markets. Stay tuned for additional flashes, updates and stay nimble. On Friday, stock futures sold off during for a variety of reasons , look for wide ranges both up and down. Interest rates in the U.S. are still zero. The political season in the U.S. is now making it’s way into the headline news so expect more volatility. G-20, World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings were taking place all last week and many comments from political leaders, finance ministers, central bankers and other political officials will likely lead to wide ranges.
Overseas in Japan traders should continue to treat Japanese Yen futures as a trading affair. Spot Dollar-Yen (inverse of the futures) continues to trade on both sides of unchanged on the year by a little bit. On the downside, the USD/JPY support is at 11815 and the 11690 to 11640 region.
The nearby resistance is 11920 to 12030 and the 12320 to 12380 region. In Europe, the Dax slipped a little last week. The Euro has resistance at the 10960 to 11010 region. Resistance remains at 11010 and 11300 to 11360. Support lies near 10680 to 10580 and 10360 to 10300. Nothing has changed.
UK elections are coming up in May and should lead to more volatility for the British Pound.
Downside nearby support for cable is at 14840 and the 14590 to 14530 region. Below that A test of 14210 to 14150 is likely. Resistance above the market is now 15115 and 15290 to 15350. Looking north of the border at the Canadian Dollar, the U.S. Dollar-Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) trading range has not changed. USD/CAD has some support at 12030 to 11920. Resistance remains near 12680 to 12740. Canadian Dollar futures (inverse of USD/CAD) support is at 8044 to 8029 and 7777 to 7763. Resistance is at the 8300 region. Short-term traders can play both sides. At 8500, the benefit of recent Bank of Canada rate cuts for the Canadian economy are diminished. Nothing has changed. The Australian dollar and the Kiwi are trading in wide ranges and we expect that to continue, stay tuned for flashes. The long term targets are lower. Chinese stock market ETF’s were sharply lower on Friday (after China closed) in response to more tightening of margin rules in China. Expect lots of volatility next week in some areas of the globe.
Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request. For cross-country or country-by-country analysis for trading and hedging, please call or email a request.
Gold and silver continue to waffle around and are trading affairs. Support is well below prevailing trading levels. Copper is pushing up against short term resistance, lumber acts lousy. Natural Gas prices are still trading lower on the year. WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and the products have moved a little higher and continue to bounce around and are trading affairs. Stay tuned for energy flashes. Traders should expect increased volatility the grain markets as the U.S. planting and growing season progresses. Traders should also expect a lot of price movement in both Live Cattle and Lean Hogs on a daily basis. In the Soft Commodities, coffee has moved back and forth. Coffee is a trading affair. Sugar has bounced and is likely to find sellers in the current region. Cotton is higher on the year and is entering a period of time where some typical weakness occurs Cocoa has rallied a little. Nothing has changed. Traders should sell July Cocoa and work orders to sell September above mkt and maintain the positions for a year or two. Traders should expect wide ranges and a trading affair in Cocoa.
Onto the Nitty Gritty
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Nearby support is at 17,380.00 to 17,310.00 should hold. Under that a test of the 16,960.00 to 16,890.00 region is likely.
Nearby resistance is at the 18,080.00 to 18,220.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 18,580.00 to 18,650.00 region and should cap a rally.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 8589.00 to 8560.00 and the 8499.00 to 8484.00 region. Below that a test of 8406.00 to 8391.00 region is likely.
Resistance is at 8668.00 to 8683.00 then 8762.00 to 8777 and the 8856.00 to 8871.00 region Beyond that sellers should appear near 9044.00 to 9060.00
JUNE E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 2080.00 to 2089.00 and the 2126.00 to 2134.00 region. Traders can sell at 2125.75 and initially risk a close over 2137 for three days in row.
Support should appear near 2042.00 to 2034.00 region. Below that a test of 1996.00 to 1982.00 is likely.
Resistance should appear at 4973.00 to 4995.00 and the 5127.0 to 5139.00 region. Support should appear near 49.15.00 then 4856.00 to 4845.00 and the 4765 to 4775 region.
JUNE E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4315.00 to 4304.00 , an extended trade or close under is negative and augurs for a test of 4249.00 to 4238.00, below that a test of 4183.00 to 4163.00 is likely. Resistance is at 4370.00 to 4381.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4503.00 to 4514.00.
JUNE E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1253.00 and the 1268.00 to 1274.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1304.00 to 1310.00 Support should appear near 1238.00 to 1232.00 and the 1203.00 to 1192.00 region.
JUNE 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 167-07 and 168-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 168-21 and 169-07.
Support should appear near 164-07 then 163-21 and 162-21. Under that buyers should appear near 161-07 and contain a decline.
JUNE 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 130-21 and 131-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 132-21 and 133-07 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 128-21 then 128-07 . Below that a test of 127-21 is likely.
Below that 126-22 should contain a decline.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 9821 to 9837, a close over augurs for a test of the 9921 to 9937 region. Support should appear near the 9641 to 9625 region. Below that buyers should appear near 9541 to 9526.
JUNE JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 8484 to 849906 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8560 to 8589.
Support should appear near 8406 to 8391 and the 8314 to 8300 region.
JUNE EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear 10680 to 10580 then 10470 and 10360 to 10320
Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010 then 11155 and 11300 to 11360.
JUNE SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10580 to 10680 and 10960 to 11020
Support should appear near 10470 and the 10360 to 10320 region.
JUNE BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 14840 then 14727 and the 14590 to 1453 region.
Resistance should appear near 15117 and the 15290 to 15350 region.
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 8194 to 8223 and the 8300 to 8314 region.
Traders can sell at 8297 and risk a close over 8322 for three days in a row. Support should appear near 8134 to 8119 then 8044 to 8029 and the 7954 to 7939 region.
JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR Resistance should appear near 7763 to 7777 , beyond that sellers should appear near 7834 to 7864 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 7689 to 7675 and the 7601 to 7587 region.
Stay tuned for Forex flashes and updates.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
Resistance should appear near the 1232.0 to 1238.0 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near
1253.0 and the 2068.0 to 2074.0 region.
Support should appear near 1192.0 and 1169.0 to 1164.0 a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1136.00 to 1130.00.
JULY COPPER Resistance should appear near 28200 to 28290 and the 28740 to 28830 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 29280 to 29370
Support should appear near 27240 to 27160 then 26720 to 26630 region. Below that a test of 26200 to 26120 is likely to occur.
Support should appear near 1615 to 1609 and the 1576 to 1569 region. Below that a test of 1535 to 1529 is likely.
Resistance is at 1642 to 1655 then 1689.0 to 1696.0 and the 1731.0 to 1738.0 region.
Pick your poison ….
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
JUNE CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 5577 to 5553 and 5430 to 5418. Below that a test of 5282 to 5259 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 5792 to 5805 then 5855 to 5880 and 5945 to 5957
JULY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 5729 to 5716 and 5577 to 5553. A close under is negative.
Resistance should appear near 6023 to 6035. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6101 to 6113
BW Traders should go short if a close under 5791 occurs.
JUNE BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 6113 to 6101 and 5957 to 5945 , below that a test of 5880 to 5855 is likely
Resistance should appear near 6417 to 6430 and 6577 to 6591. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6659 to 6673
JUNE HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 18580 and 17800 to 17740. Below that a test of 17380 to 17310 is likely.
Resistance should appear 19020 to 19090 and 19460 to 19530. Beyond that sellers should appear near 19820 to 19960.
JUNE UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 18220 to 18080 then 17800 to 17740 and the 17380 to 17310 region.
Resistance should appear 20340 to 20420. Beyond that sellers should appear near 200800 to 20890.
JUNE NATURAL GAS
Support should appear near 2.724 to 2.716. Below that a test of 2.672 to 2.663 and the 2.620 to 2.612 region is likely. Failure there augurs for a test of 2.568 to 2.552
Resistance should appear near 2.820 to 2.829 and the 2.874 to 2.883 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2.928 to 2.937 and cap a rally.
Stay Tuned for Energy Flashes and Updates
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JULY SOYBEANS Support should appear near 944 ½ to 942 ¾ and 934 ¾ to 931 ¾. Below that a test of 906 to 904 ½ and the 896 ½ to 893 ½ region is likely.
Resistance should appear near 970 ¾ to 973 ¾ and 982 ¼ to 983 ¾. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1002 ¼ to 1003 ¾ and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 944 ½ to 942 ¾ and 934 ¾ to 931 ¾. Below that a test of 915 ¾ to 914 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 970 ¾ to 973 ¾ and the 982 ¼ to 983 ¾ region.
JULY SOYOIL Support should appear near 3148 and 3102 to 3092 . Below that a test of 3045 to 3036 is likely
Resistance should appear near 3194 to 3213 and 3261 to 3270. Traders can sell at 3257 and hold for lower prices.
JULY SOYMEAL Resistance should appear near 314.8 to 315.7 and 319.4 to 321.3
Support should appear near 304.5 to 303.6 and 299.0 to 297.2. Below that buyers should appear near 288.3 to 287.4. Traders can buy at 288.7 and risk a close under 281.9 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 374 ¼ to 373 ¼ region. Below that a test of 368 ¼ to 366 ¼ is likely. Resistance should appear near 390 3/4 to 392 ¾ and 398 ¼ to 399 ¼. Beyond that sellers should appear near 411 to 412..
JULY WHEAT Support should appear near 485 ¾ to 484 ½ and 465 to 463 ¾
Resistance should appear near 497 ¼ to 499 ½ and 505 ¾ to 506 ¾ Stay tuned for Grain flashes and updates.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
JUNE CATTLE Support should appear near 14840, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 14590 to 14530 region. Below that buyers should appear near 14210 to 14150.
Resistance should appear near 14960 and 15117. Beyond that sellers should appear near 15290 to 15350 and cap a rally. Trade Accordingly.
Support should appear near 14590 to 14530 region. Below that a test of 14210 to 14150 is likely
Resistance should appear near 14717 and the 14840 to 14960 region.
Support should appear near 7512 to 7482, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 7342 to 7327 and the 7257 to 7242 region. Below that a test of 7170 to 7142 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 7587 to 7602 and 7672 to 7692. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7762 to 7777 and the 7832 to 7867 region. BW Traders should go short if a close under 7582 occurs. Stay Tuned for Livestock Flashes.
Support should appear near 7002 to 6992 and the 6922 to 6907 region.
Resistance should appear near 7142 to 7172 and the 7242 to 7257 region.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 14840 to 14960 region. Traders can sell at 14835 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 13830 to 13770, a close under augurs for a test of 13460 to 13340 and the 12740 to 12680 region.
Resistance should appear near 2874 to 2883 region and cap a rally. Beyond that resistance is at 2928to 2937 and 2972 to 2990. Traders can sell at 2871 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near the 2672 to 2663 and the 2620 to 2612 region
Resistance is near 1334 to 1346 and the 1377 to 1383 region, where sellers should appear and cap a rally. Support should appear near 1274 to 1268 and 1238 to 1232, a close under augurs for a test of 1203 to 1192 and eventually the 1169 to 1164 region. Trade Accordingly.
Support should appear near 6035 to 6023. Under that buyers should appear near 5957 to 5945
Resistance is at 6417 to 6430. Traders can sell at 6407 and hold for lower prices. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6483 to 6509 and 6577 to 6591 and cap a rally.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Sunday April 19, 2015 5:00 AM South Florida Beach Time
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