FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 463 Saturday December 13, 2014. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see http://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time.” –Thomas A. Edison–
Friday December 12, 2014
3:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time
Traders should stay nimble and stay tuned for flashes in all markets during the holidays.
Trading tends to slow to a crawl and then picks up after the Christmas holiday and into the first few months of the New Year. Generally U.S Stock Indices remain higher on the year. However the Russell is unchanged to lower or higher depending on which way the wind blows while the FTSE is lower and the Dax is a bit higher. Interest rates are still at or near zero. The U.S Federal reserve meets this coming week. Interest rates after the meeting will likely be zero, they should cancel the meeting go on vacation and come back when they have something to do (in the meantime take the budget funded for the members and send it to the needy for the holiday). Over the next year the BOE and ECB will increase the time between meetings, many years ago central banks had fewer meetings and announced rate decisions pretty much at their leisure.
Seasonally the stock market tends to firm up into year end. Not always but most of the time. That said traders should prepare for volatility and continue to trade the markets.
Forex Markets; the euro remains lower on the year. The Euro’s does tend to have some strength into the end of the year but now it’s muted and continues to wane, longer term downside targets are well below current levels. We want to Sell Swiss Franc Futures (Buy Dollar Swiss) and Euro and be short as the year turns. Ditto for Cable. Cable is lower on the year, downside support is 15350 to 15290 and the trading range has expanded a bit. Resistance is above the market at 16090 to 16150. The USD/CAD is higher on the year, longer term targets are higher. CAD/USD has become a trading affair and is somewhat sensitive to the oil trade. Dollar-Yen is trading higher on the year. On the downside support is at 116.90 to 116.40 and 115.00, the nearby target on top is now 123.20 to 123.80. Do not rule out higher tests USD/JPY down the road. Dollar Yen typically rises into the end of the year. Traders should consider Yen a trading affair. Look to get long USD/JPY during a dip (Sell Yen futures on a rally) into the middle to end of month and have longs (short futures) on into the New Year. Japanese GDP has disappointed policy makers. The government is holding elections this weekend. So expect volatility and lots of noise. The Aussie and Kiwi longer term downside targets are lower. The central Bank of Australia agrees with us on the Aussie. The Aussie is bouncing around a 4 year low. Seasonally the Aussie typically can firm a bit, however as we have stated previously, that’s not always the case. (That worked better in the commodity boom and that’s boom has issues now.)Both the Kiwi and Aussie dollar are down on the year. Sell Rallies in Aussie
Please note; Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request. For more detailed information or a country by county economic analysis for trading or hedging programs please call or email a request.
Precious Metals and Energy; Gold and Silver remain weak longer term, Gold has bounced from a good low at the 1136 to 1130 region and is range bound now and is unchanged to a bit higher on the year. Gold typically firms into the end of the year. Copper remains weak and is below the lows of the past several years. Copper can typically firm up a bit, how much is the question.. Copper is lower on the year. Silver is lower on the year. Nothing has changed. WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and the products accelerated to the downside and bounced a bit. Heating Oil and Unleaded Gas have years of price on top of the market and are weak. Natural Gas also backed off. Energies are trading affairs.
There is some tendency Crude and Heating Oil to stabilize a bit into late December, but from where and how much is another matter… Grains also are trading affairs. After the USDA report was released grains moved a bit lower, not much but a bit and then moved a bit higher. There were little significant changes in this month’s USDA price forecasts (WASDE). USDA forecast average corn price was left at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel. The USDA report for core was considered bullish and need stocks came in at 1.998 billion bushels compared to the expectations of 2.027 bbu. World ending stocks came in and 192.2 million tonnes. Argentina production and Chinese production were both revised slightly higher. The USDA left export expectations unchanged and raised industrial usage by 10 million bushels. Soybean report any stocks came in at 410 million bushels versus trade expectations of 427 million bushels. World ending stocks are at record highs according to the USDA’s estimates of 89.87 million tonnes. The USDA estimates that Brazilian production will be 94.0 million tonnes, while Brazil’s CONFAB numbers are higher at 95.8 million tonnes. That’s a lot of South American supply and transportation logistics are improving the southern hemisphere. Traders should look to sell a rally in Beans in advance of some possible weakness into February. Generally speaking traders should look to buy beans sometime in mid-February for a trade and at lower prices than currently trading. Corn is acting better and is higher on the month and so is wheat. Wheat typically makes its highs of the season around now into early January. Both are unchanged to a bit lower than one year ago. The USDA report showed that world ending stocks for wheat came in at 194.90 million tonnes. The expectation was 191.75 million. U.S. wheat ending stocks came in at 654 million bushels as expected. Livestock markets are a day to day trading affair. Live Cattle futures declined off its pricy all-time highs on general liquidation. Typically Hogs can act soft into mid-December and the third week and can last into early next year. The All-Important Quarterly Pig-Crop report will be released by the USDA on December 23rd. Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes and Updates. Coffee typically firms in December but remains pricey and now acts short term lousy. Coffee is lower on the month and during bullish periods it typically does not to take out the October low in December and it has. Sugar and Cocoa are trading affairs, sugar acts badly. Cocoa is up slightly on the year after making high in the last few months. Cotton continues to bounce around and is lower on the year.
Stay tuned for flashes and updates in all markets On to the Nitty Gritty.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support is near 17,125.00 and the 16,960.00 to 16,890.00 region, where buyers should appear and contain a decline. Below that a test of 16,550.00 to 16,420.00 is likely
Resistance is at 17,310.00 to 17,380.00 and 17,560.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 17,740.00 to 17,800.00 region.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 8777.00 to 8762.00 and the 8589.00 to 8564.00 region.
Resistance is at 9044.00 to 9060.00 then 9140.00 to 9156.00 and 9316.00 to 9347.00.
MARCH E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 2015.00 and 2034.00 to 2043.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2061.50 and the 2080.00 to 2089.00 region.
Support should appear near 1982.00. Traders can buy at for a bounce 1983.00 and plan on a risk of 10.00 points. Below that support should appear near 1953.00 to 1946.00. Under that a test of 1929.00 to 1909.00 is likely
Resistance should appear at 4695.00 to 4717.00 then 4775.00 to 4785.00 and 4845.00 to 4856.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 4915.00 to 4926.00 region.
Support should appear near 4639.00 and the 4582.00 to 4572.00. Below that a test of 4514.00 to 4503.00 is likely.
MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4163.00 then 4120.00 to 41210.00 and 4056.00 to 4046.00.
Below that a test of 3992.00 to 3982.00 is likely.
Resistance is at 4238.00 to 4249.00 the 4304.00 to 4314.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 4370.00 to 4381.00 region.
MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1150.00 then 1164.00 to 1169.00 and 1180.50.
Support should appear near 1136.00 to 1130.00 and its likely to be tested, a close under is negative and augur for a test of the 1101.00 to 1096.00 region.
MARCH 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 145-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 146-21 and 147-07 and 148-17, where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 143-07 and 142-21. Below that 141-21 should hold.
MARCH 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 128-08. Beyond that sellers should appear near 128-21 and 129-07, which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 126-22 and 125-22. Below that a test of 125-07 and 124-22 is likely.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8871 then 8934 to 8964 and 9044 to 9060.
Support should appear near 8777 to 8762 and the 8683 to 8668 region.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 8560 to 8589 then 86568 to 8683 and the 8762 to 8777 region. Traders can sell at 8556 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 8406 to 8391, below that a test of 8314 to 8300 is likely, under that a trade towards 8044 to 8029 is likely to occur.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near the 12380 to 12320 , below that a test of 12030 to 11920 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 12530 and the 12680 to 12740 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10470 and the 10580 to 10680 region.
Support should appear near 10360 to 10320, an extended close under is negative and augurs for at test of 10037 to 10021.
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 15350 to 15290 and 14960 to 14840
Resistance should appear near 15760 then 15922 and 16090 to 16150.
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 8668 to 8683 and the 8756 to 8777 region.
Traders can sell at 8753 and risk a close over 8782 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 8589 to 8560, below that a test of 8499 to 8484 is likely.
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 8044 to 8029 and the 7954 to 7939 region. Below that a test of 7777 to 7763 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 8223 then 8300 to 8314 and 8391 to 8406.
Traders can sell at 8297 and risk a close over 8327 for three days in a row.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
Resistance should appear near 1232.0 to 1238.0 and the 1268 to 1274 region.
Support should appear near 1203.00 to 1196.00 and the 1169.00 to 1164.0 region.
Resistance should appear near 29370 and 30360 to 30450. Beyond that sellers should appear near
30920 to 31020
Support should appear near 28290 to 28200 then 27750 to 27580 and the 26720 to 26630 region.
Support should appear near 1696.0 to 1689.0 and 1655.0 to 1642.0
Resistance is at 1731.0 to 1738.0 and 1774.0 to 1780.0
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
FEBRUARY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 5653 to 5640 then 5577 to 5553 and the 5356 to 5344 region. Below that a test of 5067 to 5056 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 5855 to 5880 then 5945 to 5957 and the 6165 to 6190 region. Traders can sell at 6157 and hold for lower prices. Traders should go short if a close under 5787 occurs
FEBRUARY BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 6035 to 6029 and the 5958 to 5945 region. Below that a test of 5880 to 5855 is likely
Resistance should appear near 6337 to 6350 and the 6417 to 6430 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6483 to 6509 and 6659 to 6673
FEBRUARY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 19090 to 19020 and the 18650 to 18580 region. Below that a test of 18220 to 18080 is likely.
Resistance should appear 19829 to 19960 and 20340 to 20420. Beyond that sellers should appear near 20800 to 20890.
FEBRUARY UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear 15350 to 15290 and the 14960 to 14840 region. Below that a test of 13830 to 13770 is likely
Resistance should appear near 16420 to 16550 then 16890 to 16960 and the 17310 to 17380 region.
FEBRUARY NATURAL GAS
Support should appear near 3.682 to 3.663 and 3.563 to 3.553
Resistance should appear near 3.858 to 3.867 and 3.982 to 3.992
Stay Tuned for Energy Flashes
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
Support should appear near 1013 ¾ to 1010 ½ and 973 ¾ to 970 ¾.. Below that a test of 934 3/4 to 931 ¾ is likely.
Resistance should appear near the 1058 to 1068 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1096 to 1101 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 3157 to 3148 and the 3102 to 3092 region. Below that a test of 3045 to 3036 is likely.
Resistance should appear near the 3377 to 3386 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3425 to 3443 and cap a rally.
Resistance should appear near 361.3 to 362.3 and the 368.3 to 369.3 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 379.5 to 380.6 and should cap a rally
Support should appear near 355.3, below that a test of 350.3 to 349.3 is likely. Under that buyers should appear near 338.6 to 337.3
Support should appear near 386 ¾ to 385 ¾ and the 368 ¼ to 366 ¼ region.
Resistance should appear near 411 to 412 and 416 ¼ to 418 ¼
Support should appear near 588 to 585 ½ and 572 ¾ to 571 ¾. Below that a test of 557 ¾ to 555 ¼ and 550 ¼ to 549 ¾ is likely.
Resistance should appear near 616 ½ to 619 and the 633 ¾ to 635 region. Where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
Support should appear near 15760 to 15690 and the 15350 to 15290 region.
Resistance should appear near 16417 to 16552 and the 16890 to 16960 region.
Support should appear near 16090 and 15760 to 15690. Below that a test of 15350 to 15290 is likely to occur.
Resistance should appear near 16227 and 16417 to 16557. Beyond that sellers should appear near 16890 to 16960 and the 17310 to 17380 region.
Support should appear near 8317 to 8302. Below that a test of 8222 to 8192 and the 8047 to 8027 region is likely.
Resistance should appear near 8392 to 8407 and 8482 to 8502. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8572 to 8592 and 8667 to 8682 and cap a rally. Traders should go short if a close under
Support should appear near 8407 to 8392 and the 8317 to 8292 region. Below that a test of 8222 to 8192 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 8557 to 8592 and the 8667 to 8682 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8762 to 8777 and cap a rally
Support should appear near 9062 to 9042 and the 8967 to 8932 region. Below that a test of 8872 to 8857 is likely and should hold. Under that buyers should appear near 8682 to 8667. Traders can buy at 8687 and risk 100 points
Resistance should appear near the 9137 to 9157 and the 9312 to 9347 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9427 to 9447 and 9527 to 9542
Stay Tuned for Livestock Flashes during the thin holiday trading.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
Resistance should appear near 17740 to 17800 and the 18080 to 18220 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 19020 to 19090 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 17380 to 17310.. Below that 16980 to 16890 should bring out buyers and contain a decline… Below that 16550 to 16420 should hold.
Stay tuned for Flashes
Resistance should appear near 2874 to 2883 then 2928 to 2937 and the 3036 to 3045 region…
Support should appear near 2775 to 2758. Below that a test of 2724 to 2716 and the 2620 to 2612 region is likely Trade Accordingly
Resistance is near 1529 to 1535 and the 1569 to 1575 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1609 to 1615.
Support should appear near 1459 to 1453 and the 1421 to 1415 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1383 to 1377.
Support should appear near 5880 to 5855 then 5577 to 5553 and the 4995 to 4973 region.
Resistance is at 6165 to 6190 and 6335 to 6350 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Friday December 12, 2014 4:30 PM South Florida Beach Time
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