FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 420 April 21 2013 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable – ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking – chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk–”
– Reminiscences of a Stock operator. –
Saturday April 20, 2013 8:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
US Stocks closed higher on Friday after a wild back and forth week. Traders should look for more news-driven trading and expanded ranges. Since all the money in the stock market is made from November to May traders should continue to look for a trading range. The Dollar Index typically firms into May and June, the Japanese Yen remains long term bearish. Maintain a Long Dollar/Yen posture. Buy Dollar/ Yen on a dip and short Futures. Typically the Yen Futures can level off in this time frame and firm; however rallies may now be muted. Traders should look for a range bound Euro, 12740 to 12680 remains a support region. Resistance is at the current 13040 to 13100 level a push into 13220 or even 13340 to 13460 is possible and traders should be alert for that. However after last weeks drab action a lower to sideways Euro into summer appears likely.
Meanwhile the German Dax Index is unchanged to lower on the year and under the February and March lows. It won’t be long before investors in Germany are unhappy if not already.
Canuck dipped back into the lower part of its trading range, selling is still preferred. Maintain shorts in Swiss futures and buy Dollar / Swiss on dips. Cable acts sloppy but can firm a bit. Traders can sell cable on a rally for a move into the lower part of the trading range this summer. Aussie Dollars fell a bit but remain at elevated levels, traders should remain short postured and treat it as a trading affair now. Look for generally lower prices into summer. Stay tuned for Forex Flashes for both Futures and Spot Market Trades.
Silver, Gold and Copper are a mess, nothing has changed. Look for a trading range now.
Sell a rally while extreme weakness can be bought for a trade… Same with Crude Oil and its products are all a mess an upward slant can occur into July and August if they hold.
June hogs can rally into late April and May from an oversold condition. Sell that Rally, look to sell October on a rally for lower prices into autumn. Wheat tends to drift lower into the July harvest. Sell a rally. Weather and planting for grains will become the focus for traders now. Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa continue to chop and grind but a bit higher. Coffee appears to be in the same range and it would not be a surprise to see 12100 coffee prices with 15200 capping the upside, Coffee tends to make a low in July. Cotton has entered a trading range and over the last 40 Years a peak in cotton occurs in late April with a May low followed by a stronger period in June. Short term traders can sell a rally for a trade, stay tuned for a flash. Sugar tends to makes its lows for the year in April thru June so if it firms traders can wait for a set back and focus on the October contract to buy until then it appears to be a grind. Look for a price cap in Cocoa for a dip over next few weeks as Cocoa Typically slips a bit in late April into Mid May.
On to the Nitty Gritty
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near 14,530.00, failure to hold is negative and augurs for a test of 14,370.00… Where buyers should appear… Below that a test of the 14,210.00 to 14150.00 region is likely.
Resistance remains near 14,590.00 then 14715.00 and the 14,840.00 to 14.960.00, which should cap a rally
JUNE E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 1552.00 and the 1569.00 to 1576.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1609.00 to 1615.00.and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 1535.00 to 1529.00 and 1512.50. Traders can buy at 1513.00 and risk a close under 1509.00 for three days in a row. Below that buyers should appear near the 1496.00 to 1484.00 region.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 3261.00 to 3270.00 and the 3319.00 to 3328.00 region
Support should appear near 3194 and the 3157.00 to 3148.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 3102.00 to 3092.00 which should contain any decline.
JUNE E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 2758.00 and the 2724.00 to 2716.00 region. Under that 2672.00 to 2663 should contain a decline. Traders can buy at 2673 for a bounce and risk 30 points.
Resistance should appear near 2797.00 and 2820.00 to 2829.00 beyond that sellers should appear near 2874.00 to 2883.00. Traders can sell at 2873 and risk 30 points.
JUNE E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 914.00 to 915.60 then 923.70 and the 931.60 to 934.70 region.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 94290 to 94450 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near the 906.00 to 904.40.Below that buyers should appear near 896.40 to 893.40 and the 887.10 to 885.80 region. Under that a test of 877.70 to 872.60 is likely.
Traders can buy at 877.90 for a bounce and risk a close under 875.90 for three days in a row.
JUNE 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 148-21 and 149-07 then 150-07 and 151-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 152-07 and 152-21. Aggressive Traders can sell at 152-07 and risk a close over 152-22 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 147-21 and 147-07. Below that 145-21 and 145-07 should hold.
JUNE 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 133-21 and 134-07, beyond that 135-07 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 132-21 and 132-07, failure there is negative and augurs for a test of
131-07 which should hold.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near the 8300 to 8314 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8391 to 8406 which now appears more likely to occur than not..
Support should appear near 8223 to 8194 and should hold, below that buyers should appear near the 8134 to 8119 region and contain a decline.
Traders should go long if a close over 8317 occurs.
JUNE JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 10104 to 10136 then 10185 and 10237. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10320 to 10360… Traders can sell at 10312 and risk a close over 10367 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 10037 to 10021 and the 9937 to 9921 region.
JUNE EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13040, a close under or extended trade under is negative and augurs for a test of 12967 and 12890. Below that a test of 12740 to 12680 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 13100 and 13155.Traders can sell at 13097 and risk a close over 13107 for three days in a row. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13220.
JUNE SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10750 and 10817. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10960 to 11010.
Support should appear near 10680 to 10580. A close under is negative and augurs for as test the 10360 to 10320 region.
JUNE BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 15125. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 14960 to 14840 region.
Resistance should appear near resistance should appear near 15290 to 15350 and 15525
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9821 to 9837. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9921 to 9937.
Support should appear near 9706 and 9641 to 9425. Below that a test of 9542 to 9526 is likely.
JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10320 to 10360 and 10417. Traders can sell at 10317 and hold for lower prices
Support should appear near 10185 and the 10136 to 10104 region
THE PRECIOUS METALS
JUNE GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1415 to 1421 and the 1453 to 1459 region. Beyond that Sellers should appear near the 1484 to 1496 region and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 1483.00 and risk a close over 1497 for three days in a row.
Support is near 1383.00 to 1377.00 below that a test of 1361.50 is likely. Failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 1346.00 to 1334.00 and the 1310.00 to 1304.00 region where buyers should appear and contain a decline. Traders can buy at 1311.00 and risk a close under 1303.00 for three days in a row.
JULY COPPER
Resistance should appear near 31940 to 32130 and the 32610 to 32700 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 33190 to 33280. Traders can sell at 33100 and hold for lower prices. Above that 33770 to 33860 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 31570 to 31480 and the 31020 to 30920 region. Below that buyers should appear near 30450 to 30360 and the 29900 to 29720 region, which should hold for now.
JULY SILVER
Resistance should appear near 2315 to 2322 and the 2354 to 2370 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2411 to 2419 then 2461 to 2469 and the 2511 to 2519 region. Which should cap a rally. Traders can sell at 2509 and hold for lower prices. Stay tuned for flashes to reduce risk.
Support is at 2322 to 2315 and the 2275 to 2267 region. Below that a test of 2226 to 2219 is likely… Failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 2185 to 2170 below that buyers should appear near 2089 to 2080 and the 1996 to 1982 region. Traders can buy at 1997 and initially risk a close under 1977 for three days in a row.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
JUNE CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 8856 to 8871 and the 8934 to 8964 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 9044 to 9060. Beyond that a trade towards 9140 to 9156 is likely and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 8777 to 8762 then 8683 to 8668 and 8589 to 8560. Below that buyers should appear near 8499 to 8484 and contain a decline.
JUNE HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 27750 to 27580 and 27240 to 27160.
Resistance should appear near 28200 to 28290 and the 28740 to 28830 region.
JUNE UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 27240 to 27160 and 26720 to 26630
Resistance should appear 28200 to 28290, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of
28740 to 28830 and the 29280 to 29370 region, which should cap a rally.
Traders should go long of a close over 277.70 occurs.
JUNE NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 4571 to 4582 and 4639 to 4650
Support should appear near 4381 to 4370 and 4249 to 4238.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JULY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1377 and 1361 ½, below that a test of 1346 to 1334 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 1415 to 1421 and the 1453 to 1459 region.
Stay tuned for flashes.
JULY SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 4915 to 4926 and 4973 to 4995 which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 4856 to 4845 and the 4785 to 4775 region. Below that a test of 4717 to 4695 should contain a decline.
JULY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 404.6 to 405.6 and the 416.3 to 418.3 region.
Support should appear near 386.7 to 385.8 and the 368.2 to 366.3 region which should contain a decline. Trade Accordingly
JULY CORN
Support should appear 619 to 616 ½, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of
the 588 to 585 region.
Resistance should appear near 633 ¾ to 635 and the 665 ¾ to 667 ¼ region.
JULY WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 714 ¾ to 717 and the 724 ¼ to 725 ½ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 732 ¾ to 734 ¼ and 741 ½ to 742 ¾ Traders can sell at 731 and risk a close over 743 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 700 ¾ to 699 and the 667 ¼ to 665 ¾ region.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear near 12030 to 11920 a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 11690 to11640 region which should hold.
Resistance should appear near 12320 to 12380, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 12527 and the 12680 to 12740 region.
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 8967 to 8937, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 8682 to 8667 region.
Resistance should appear near 9037 to 9062 and the 9142 to 9162 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9317 to 9347. Traders can sell at 9137 and hold for lower prices.
Traders should go short if a close under 8932 occurs.
OCTOBER HOGS
Support should appear near 8047 to 8027 and the 7957 to 7937 region.
Resistance should appear near 8300 to 8317 and the 8557 to 8587 region.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
JULY COFFEE
Support should appear near 14210 to 14150, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 13830 to 13770, below that a trade towards 13460 to 13340 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590 and the 14840 to 14960 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 15290 to 15350. Traders can sell at 14830 and hold for lower prices. Risk a close over 15010 for three days in a row.
JULY COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2354 to 2370, Traders can sell at 2349 and risk a close over 2372 for three days in a row , beyond that sellers should appear near the 2411 to 2419 region and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 2322 to 2315, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 2275 to 2267 and the 2226 to 2219 region. Below that buyers should appear near 2185 to 2170.
JULY SUGAR
Resistance is near 1808 to 1822. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1902 to 1909.
Support should appear near 1738 to 1731 and the 1696 to 1689 region.
JULY COTTON
Support should appear near 8499 to 8484 and the 8406 to 8391 region. Below that a test of 8314 to 8300 is likely.
Resistance is near 8668 to 8683 and the 8762 to 8777 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near
8934 to 8964 and cap a rally. .
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday April 21, 2013
3:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
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FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 420 Sunday April 21, 2013 Equity Indices – Treasuries – Currency Trading – Forex – Precious Metals – Energy – Grains – Livestock – Softs Comments
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